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davezatz said:
It's hard to take the speculation seriously when they call TiVo "troubled."
That is the mainstream media's standard adjective for TiVo. Most of these "reporters" just regurgitate what they've read elsewhere. It is unlikely to happen, but TiVo would be a good fit for Cisco, who bought KISS last year (a european maker of DVRs and DVD players).
 

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That'd be the deal of century for TIVO - even if it was just a 'partnership'.

Hmm...

TIVO-Scientific Atlanta.. or TIVO S.A.

Has a nice ring.
 

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ChuckyBox said:
That is the mainstream media's standard adjective for TiVo. Most of these "reporters" just regurgitate what they've read elsewhere. It is unlikely to happen, but TiVo would be a good fit for Cisco, who bought KISS last year (a european maker of DVRs and DVD players).
Ya because we all know that companies that don't make money are just fine. ;)
 

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davezatz said:
It's hard to take the speculation seriously when they call TiVo "troubled."
Don't feel bad. I use a Mac. "Troubled" "Beleagured" "Struggling" You name it. Apple's been called it. Given that Apple now has a larger market cap (or at least it did a few weeks ago) than that company run by Michael "Apple should dissolve and return the money to the shareholders" Dell I wouldn't worry about what the media calls TiVo.

That said, it would be interesting, much more so than the periodic rumors of Apple buying TiVo.
 

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Kanyon71 said:
Ya because we all know that companies that don't make money are just fine. ;)
This was the line of "reasoning" used against Amazon.com for years, and somehow Amazon.com is doing just fine now.....because those early losses were part of their business plan and were deliberate.

As for Cisco TiVo would be crazy to sell with their patent suit against Dish coming up soon. A partnership with Cisco's recently acquired Scientific Atlanta cable box division would make a lot of sense, one more step towards getting more cable companies on board the TiVo bandwagon.

From the CNet article:

Then there's TiVo. It has a well-developed software interface, and it has one of the most recognizable brands in the DVR market.

But there are several reasons a partnership with TiVo is much more likely than an acquisition. For one, Cisco already has DVR functionality as part of the set-top boxes it's acquiring from Scientific-Atlanta. Second, TiVo carries a $460 million market capitalization. Third, TiVo suffered a serious blow in distribution when one of its major partners, DirecTV, decided to end a reseller relationship. TiVo now has a distribution deal with Comcast.

"The deal stopper for Cisco would probably be the fact that TiVo is losing customers," said Albert Lin, an analyst with American Technology Research.
TiVo is "losing customers"?

TiVo might be losing the DirecTV partnership, but to spin this into "TiVo is losing customers" is absurd. The money TiVo makes from DirecTV is not that much compared to standalones, and Comcast is coming on board soon so it's hard to see where they get the idea that "TiVo is losing customers" unless they mean "TiVo is losing some customers but getting more new customers than they are losing" which somehow doesn't have the necessary air of doom and gloom to it.

The CNet article is silly. They speculate on Cisco buying Nintendo - not going to happen. In fact they list so many possible companies that Cisco might buy that it reads like someone's brainstorming exercise rather than a serious investigation or insider leak.
 

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This was the line of "reasoning" used against Amazon.com for years, and somehow Amazon.com is doing just fine now.....because those early losses were part of their business plan and were deliberate.
LOL! Reminds the reasoning that all perpetual motion machine inventors use - "They didn't believe Einstein either". For each Amazon.com there are at least 1000 of dot.coms like TiVo that went belly up. Believe it or not - most successful companies make money. And believe it or not most companies that lose money go belly up. :)
"TiVo is losing some customers but getting more new customers than they are losing"
Of course correct and unbiased statement would be simple "TiVo is losing market share". But that doesn't have a dramatic spin to it either.
 

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Adding TiVo to the Cisco mix could lead to an alternative to the ViiV/Vista platform, or accelerate ViiV/Vista into the defacto standard.

With TiVo, Cisco would have all the assets to create a user friendly and secure platform & product line which receives video over cable and internet connections and allows the secure movement and storage of the content. Cisco could decide to offer its own competing standard or join WinTel.
 

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samo said:
And believe it or not most companies that lose money go belly up. :)

Of course correct and unbiased statement would be simple "TiVo is losing market share". But that doesn't have a dramatic spin to it either.
1. True. But losing money is not an indicator that a company *will* go belly up, just that it may. Almost all new businesses operate in the red for some period of time, and some companies operate for many years in the red. As long as they can sustain operations and keep investors happy, it is fine. The problem is if investment dries up and you can't redirect the company to cut expensives and live within the available budget. That's what happened when the bubble popped - companies that could restructure are still around, those that couldn't folded.

2. Market share is a contextual thing. It is next to meaningless in new markets, and meaningful in established markets. Take x86 processors. That's a mature market with established players. Saying Intel is losing marketshare to AMD is meaningful, because, while there is a fairly steady growth over time, it is practically a zero sum game. If AMD is gaining, Intel is losing.

In a new market, and DVRs is still a fairly new market that isn't close to mature, the first company out the gate has effectly 100% marketshare. No one expects them to maintain it, because if they're successful there *will* be competition, and by definition they'll take marketshare from the original. As more companies enter the market, the early leaders *always* lose marketshare. But since the overall market is still growing rapidly, everyone is lifted by the same rising tide - everyone can grow while the market is exploding. It isn't a zero sum game.

I don't expect TiVo to be the marketshare leader in DVRs, actually I expect that cheap, basic DVRs will take the majority of the market - just like with VCRs and DVD players & recorders. The market will eventually be flooded with cheap 'entry level' systems that are 'good enough' for many people, like the crappy cable DVRs, while more feature rich systems like TiVo will remain higher level products, with a smaller share of the market.
 

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dmdeane said:
This was the line of "reasoning" used against Amazon.com for years, and somehow Amazon.com is doing just fine now.....because those early losses were part of their business plan and were deliberate.

As for Cisco TiVo would be crazy to sell with their patent suit against Dish coming up soon. A partnership with Cisco's recently acquired Scientific Atlanta cable box division would make a lot of sense, one more step towards getting more cable companies on board the TiVo bandwagon.

From the CNet article:

TiVo is "losing customers"?

TiVo might be losing the DirecTV partnership, but to spin this into "TiVo is losing customers" is absurd. The money TiVo makes from DirecTV is not that much compared to standalones, and Comcast is coming on board soon so it's hard to see where they get the idea that "TiVo is losing customers" unless they mean "TiVo is losing some customers but getting more new customers than they are losing" which somehow doesn't have the necessary air of doom and gloom to it.

The CNet article is silly. They speculate on Cisco buying Nintendo - not going to happen. In fact they list so many possible companies that Cisco might buy that it reads like someone's brainstorming exercise rather than a serious investigation or insider leak.
RE: loosing subs-

while I agree with the poster who replied - it was probably written becasue it sounds better then loosing market share. I want to point out that this isn't so far fetched at some point in the coming year. Their stand alone sub adds are tiny compared to their directv adds. Directv is running dry on SD tivo boxes for new subs and slowly that number will snowball downwards as old boxes die, subs churn (even with Tivo they loose 5 or 10% a year). If Directv adds decent new features to their NDS DVR then people might also swap. ANd dont forget at some point when NDS can deliver an HD DVR Directv will start to actively jettison HD TiVo boxes. Add all that up and it could be possible that later this year they loose more directv subs then they can gain with stand alone subs.

They need to get the ball going on comcast and the series 3. If the comcast offering is an add-on like many have speculated then that might not even be enough to make up for directv subs that start to dissappear.

all that said- the guys specific quote was:
"The deal stopper for Cisco would probably be the fact that TiVo is losing customers," said Albert Lin, an analyst with American Technology Research.
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if you read that to mean Directv is a customer then bam it's true. Also if you read it to mean the future tense of losing then it's possible for subs, and if you factor in that reportedly Directv no longer pays a DIME for a single combo box customer come contract end in 2007 then that's a HUGE drop in paying subs in the future.

If you are going to bring up the revenue difference you need to factor in what has been said here many times before. Tivo barely makes money on the stand alone sub. The directv money although less per box is essentially gravy. Likely the profit for a SA box and the profit for a directv box are about the same. Factor in the rebates and Tivo probably looses money on SA boxes for a couple years while the directv boxes are all profit. And even if it is the same per box, there are multiples of Directv subs compared to SA subs.

Do I think tivo is going under tomorrow? Certainly not. They may very well be fine with their current plans- and I certainly hope so- I want to buy a couple series 3 boxes right now. But it is far from certain how it's all going to work out at this juncture in time.
 

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dmdeane said:
As for Cisco TiVo would be crazy to sell with their patent suit against Dish coming up soon.
I'm afraid I don't get the connection. The pending lawsuit would be factored into the price that Cisco would offer for TiVo, so it really shouldn't make any difference. Might even sweeten the pot...
 

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pdhenry said:
I'm afraid I don't get the connection. The pending lawsuit would be factored into the price that Cisco would offer for TiVo, so it really shouldn't make any difference. Might even sweeten the pot...
it would sweeten the pot now as a likely to win. But if TiVo wins it will mean getting a new and bigger pot altogether as the TiVo patents will be worth considerably more. of course if TiVo looses ..........
 
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