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Justin Thyme said:
TivoPony said the S3 would not be $50. I do understand that a 250GB drive really is minimum for an HD DVR, and historically the price of those drives have forced such dvrs up into the ranges being discussed. However, the prices of these drives has plummetted, so I am questioning why people are assuming super high price points.
I see extra costs there, sure. There are some neat new chips being used. But will the chip count be significantly higher, and does $10 more for two of the key chips mean that the entire box has a manufacturing cost that is 4X the S2?
Until we know more about the guts of this puppy, it is impossible to speculate. I just see the possibility that S3 architecture machines could be sold at a very low price point.
This is the same thing I am doing in my mind. Some analog pieces are subtracted from the S2, saving a few dollars and other things are added. The S3 is designed with chips and circuits 2-3 years down the road from the S2. I see no evidence that the ATSC/NTSC tuners or CC slot/interfaces, which are in several million devices per year now, cost large amounts of money. I can come up with reasonable assumptions that put the hardware cost at the retail level $200 above the S2.
 

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I'd pay $1000 but I beginning to suspect I may not need to pay anything!!!!!

Based on the information we have from TiVo this box will be available second half of 2006. Comcast have been saying their version will be available mid 2006 so I guess if that arrives first anyone who can get Comcast will get the free one and TiVo's market will dwindle to Non-Comcast cable systems that have good HD offerings - a very niche market I suspect.
 

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nyjklein said:
I would be very (pleasantly) surprised to see this priced anywhere below about $700 without the subscription. The only somehat comparable thing currently available (and recently discontinued) is the Sony DHG-HDD250. It is a single CC 1.0 box. Only records one show at a time and depends on the less than spectacular TVGOS guide service. This box was going for $800 until very recently. Now that it's discontinued you can get it for around $600.

So to expect the S3 with all the additional capability, multi-tuner, multistream CC and all the TiVo software niceties for anything less seems to be nothing but extreme wishful thinking.
Agree. My guess, initial price tag of $999. Will I buy one? No. I don't have HD TV right now, but I'm seriously considering getting 65" Sharp LCD. It costs a fair amount of change, so cost of the DVR will be secondary consideration. But I still don't see anything in Series 3 that would make me wait till end of the year to get a DVR. I have 3 choices for HD content - Dish, DirecTV and Comcast. All of them have a DVR I can get NOW. I'll be making my decision based on available content, not the DVR.
 

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nhaigh said:
I'd pay $1000 but I beginning to suspect I may not need to pay anything!!!!!

Based on the information we have from TiVo this box will be available second half of 2006. Comcast have been saying their version will be available mid 2006 so I guess if that arrives first anyone who can get Comcast will get the free one...
While the Comcast box will have a TiVo interface and some of TiVo's premium features, it won't be the same box or have all the same features. Some of these features won't matter to many people, but some will. For example, the Series 3 has a bigger hard drive with expandable storage, OTA tuner (which, I've just been assured in another thread, you can use in combination with your cable input), the ability to download content from the internet, etc. The exact feature set of each won't be known until the products are available, but it is safe to assume that the Series 3 will be qualitatively better. Whether or not that will justify the added expense will depend on the consumer. If the Comcast offering gives you everything you want then, yes, you're going to get a very nice system without having to buy the box.

...and TiVo's market will dwindle to Non-Comcast cable systems that have good HD offerings - a very niche market I suspect.
I'm not sure why you think that. Comcast is big, but it is only about 30% of the US cable market. There is plenty of room in the market for this box completely outside of Comcast. Plus the Comcast subs who will want it anyway. Plus all of the analog subs who will want it for the dual tuners and/or the OTA HD capability. Plus all of the existing TiVo subs who will upgrade just because they can.
 

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ChuckyBox said:
While the Comcast box will have a TiVo interface and some of TiVo's premium features, it won't be the same box or have all the same features. Some of these features won't matter to many people, but some will. For example, the Series 3 has a bigger hard drive with expandable storage, OTA tuner (which, I've just been assured in another thread, you can use in combination with your cable input), the ability to download content from the internet, etc. The exact feature set of each won't be known until the products are available, but it is safe to assume that the Series 3 will be qualitatively better. Whether or not that will justify the added expense will depend on the consumer. If the Comcast offering gives you everything you want then, yes, you're going to get a very nice system without having to buy the box.

I'm not sure why you think that. Comcast is big, but it is only about 30% of the US cable market. There is plenty of room in the market for this box completely outside of Comcast. Plus the Comcast subs who will want it anyway. Plus all of the analog subs who will want it for the dual tuners and/or the OTA HD capability. Plus all of the existing TiVo subs who will upgrade just because they can.
Bigger Hard Drive - I'd probably get two of them so that would be covered off somewhat.

Internet Downloads etc - I'll get a Series 2 for that and network it in. They are cheap and will probably do everything the Series 3 will in that respect.

Series 3 better Quality - surely both boxes will be simply receiving the MPEG2 data and saving it. How will one be significantly better than the other. Even so if the quality going to be $500-$1000 better - I expect not.

Comcast is only 30% of the market. I have no idea but 30% of your market sounds like at lot. I wouldn't be comfortable if my business just blew off 30% of its market.

All in all I honestly beleive that TiVo not bringing this box out earlier this year is going to be a problem for them. I asked the sales guy in Best Buy this morning if he Knew when it would be here and he told me he didn't even know one was due but has had a lot of people asking the question in the last few days. I really think TiVo sales will be hit buy people waiting for the Series Three. I'm one and I have read a lot of people here are the same. TiVo doesn't have the luxury of being able to have a year with slow sales and the hope a box is going to be here soon. They are simply not that robust finacially.

Everybody who waits is six months or more lost subscription. Many will give up and go ge HD by another means that is available today. Everyone who goes Comcast beacuse they didn't get the Series Three will be lost high value subscription revenue for good.
 

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nhaigh said:
Internet Downloads etc - I'll get a Series 2 for that and network it in. They are cheap and will probably do everything the Series 3 will in that respect.
The Series 2 won't play back MPEG4, HD, or 5/6/7.1 sound. The Series 3 will almost certainly have a faster processor, more memory, etc., that will make some features work better -- like interactive applications, games, searches, etc.

Series 3 better Quality - surely both boxes will be simply receiving the MPEG2 data and saving it. How will one be significantly better than the other. Even so if the quality going to be $500-$1000 better - I expect not.
I didn't mean picture quality, I meant that if you list the features side-by-side, the Series 3 will most likely have the advantage. Consumers will have to decide for themselves if the features warrant the expense -- just like they do with everything they buy.

Comcast is only 30% of the market. I have no idea but 30% of your market sounds like at lot.
I was responding to your statement that the non-Comcast HD market was "niche." Relative to a whole market, 70% isn't niche.

All in all I honestly beleive that TiVo not bringing this box out earlier this year is going to be a problem for them.
You're assuming that they could bring it out earlier if they wanted to.

All in all, I don't think a few months is going to make all that much difference in a market that is projected to grow as much as the DVR market over the next several years. The Series 3 is a high-end product targeted to a small subset of the market. The bulk of TiVo's subscription growth for the foreseeable future will come from the Series 2.
 

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Atomike said:
Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.
That will never happen. They would never get the money back in the cost of the box plus the cost of service. If they do anything it will be with monthly fees. They would rather you pay each month than buy lifetime.
 

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Atomike said:
Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.
Ah yes, the imfamous, "they can sell the box at a loss and make it up in volume" argument. Until TiVo can get out of the hardware business, they probably can't afford to subsidize the hardware costs (unlike MS who is losing around $150 on every XBox 360). They have to break even on the hardware so that they can make money on subscriptions.

I guess if they charged $50 a month for the service then they could give the hardware away. Of course then everyone would complain that the subscription is 10 times as expensive as the cable companies charge for DVRs.
 

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Atomike said:
Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.
Ok, what the cable companies charge certainly affects Tivo. But to say Tivo should match it completely misses some key facts about how the cable companies can lease boxes with no upfront costs. Unlike Tivo, cable companies don't survive on their DVR business. They live off their content delivery business. DVRs are just a means to increase customer retention for their content service, which subsidizes the DVR cost, NOT a profit center in and of themselves.

Tivo doesn't have that luxury. They have no other business that can subsidize DVR sales. DVRs are all they do, so they have to sell them at a profit, or get partnerships with MSOs like DirecTV and Comcast.

There's also the fact that MSOs keep the DVRs and can amortize their cost over multiple owners even if you don't use it for very long. Also most MSO DVRs completely and utterly suck, although most people who haven't seen Tivo in action might not realize how badly (which is what DirecTV is apparently banking on with the widely panned R15, according to a recent quote from them).

Tivo may never enjoy the kind of penetration MSO DVRs will but DirecTVs R15 has demonstrated that making a good DVR is not easy, even when you've had the market leader to learn from for five years. If the R15 and the Explorer 8000 are typical of the what a free DVR will be, there will be people happy to pay for a good one.
 

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Atomike said:
Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.
This is the right sentiment.

Are the majority of you just nuts?

Given this type of reaction, I bet you anything that TiVo may offer an "early-buy" beta program for you for the luxury of paying $500-$800 for a unit, then they can offer the unit for $199 + subs for the rest of the world a month later.

If TiVo thinks they can milk out a normal early adopter marketing curve on this box, they are sadly mistaken.

If TiVo wants to succeed, they need to offer these units for almost free and then offer a $16.99 a month sub program...they will scream off the shelves.

If they offer the hardware for $500+, plus subs, forget it. They'll lose an opportunity that they are already coming late too.
 

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d_anders said:
This is the right sentiment.

Are the majority of you just nuts?

Given this type of reaction, I bet you anything that TiVo may offer an "early-buy" beta program for you for the luxury of paying $500-$800 for a unit, then they can offer the unit for $199 + subs for the rest of the world a month later.

If TiVo thinks they can milk out a normal early adopter marketing curve on this box, they are sadly mistaken.

If TiVo wants to succeed, they need to offer these units for almost free and then offer a $16.99 a month sub program...they will scream off the shelves.

If they offer the hardware for $500+, plus subs, forget it. They'll lose an opportunity that they are already coming late too.
Did you even read the post above yours?
 

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Seeing the prices bandied about here, I believe a lot of folks are going to be doing without a S3 HD-TiVo if they're in any way serious about what they expect the release price to be.
Yes, and? The question in the thread is "What would you pay", not "How much will S3 cost".

It's not like the S2 will all of a sudden stop working, and a lot of people don't care enough about HD to pay a premium. not much more complicated than that.
 

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If the chips were such as I could be in a position to enjoy an S3 DVR, as Demo at CES:

I think I would pay *699-899 right away, and expect $150 or so drop by the winter holiday buying season, and level off somewhere around the middle to end of next year.
 
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