[ChuckyBox]

I'd be okay with $800 (though $600 would be nice) for the box.

Those of you who are hoping for sub $500 prices are probably going to have to wait a year or two -- I don't think TiVo is looking at this box as a high volume driver of new subscriptions, so they probably won't be willing to take a loss on the hardware to sell a box to a subscriber they already have. You might get a discount of some sort, but I doubt they'll do the deep-discount/rebate thing they're doing with the Series 2.

 

[ChuckyBox]

Until we know more about the guts of this puppy, it is impossible to speculate.

Actually, until we know more about the guts of this puppy, all we can do is speculate.

But, if you were to visit TiVo HQ, and during your visit a small fire were to start in a wastebasket, and unbeknownst to you during the confusion one of the Series 3 prototypes were to accidentally fall into your shoulder bag, and upon arriving home the box were to fall out of your bag, causing the top to pop off directly in front of your web cam, well, then we might have something to go on. (Upon realizing what had happened, you would, of course, rush the box back to TiVo and apologize profusely for the perfectly-understandable accident. I'm sure they'd forgive you and you'd all go out for a beer and laugh about the whole thing.) I'm not saying that it should happen, just that it could happen.

 

[ChuckyBox]

Like I said, I think it will be a hard sell to get users to pay a lot for this box given the current monthly fees associated with it.

I've said it elsewhere, but I'll repeat it here: TiVo's target market for this box (at least initially) is the high-end home theater consumer who is willing to pay for the best. The box will offer features not found on cable DVRs, and these consumers will not balk at the price or the monthly fee in order to get these features.

If you doubt me, visit the "TiVo CEO webcast" thread in this forum and you can listen to Tom Rogers say it.

 

[ChuckyBox]

BTW my cable co is replacing analog boxes with HDs and charging the same price as before. So Digital (a few basic channels) and HD (a few channels) are now "free" additions vs analog cable. Imagine what that is going to do to HDTV sales, etal.

What cable company is this and how do I get to the planet you live on? My cable co (Charter) charges for everything. Everything. You want cable? You pay. Expanded basic? Pay more. Digital? More. Premium channels? More. Internet? More. DVR? More. HD? More. Despite the fact that I have a fairly high level of digital service, premium channels, and high-speed internet, it would cost me around $10 per month more to get a few HD channels. The DVR (Moxi) would be $11.99/month more. I could be paying these guys $150/month and I still wouldn't have everything they offered.

 

[ChuckyBox]

I'd pay $1000 but I beginning to suspect I may not need to pay anything!!!!!

Based on the information we have from TiVo this box will be available second half of 2006. Comcast have been saying their version will be available mid 2006 so I guess if that arrives first anyone who can get Comcast will get the free one...

While the Comcast box will have a TiVo interface and some of TiVo's premium features, it won't be the same box or have all the same features. Some of these features won't matter to many people, but some will. For example, the Series 3 has a bigger hard drive with expandable storage, OTA tuner (which, I've just been assured in another thread, you can use in combination with your cable input), the ability to download content from the internet, etc. The exact feature set of each won't be known until the products are available, but it is safe to assume that the Series 3 will be qualitatively better. Whether or not that will justify the added expense will depend on the consumer. If the Comcast offering gives you everything you want then, yes, you're going to get a very nice system without having to buy the box.

...and TiVo's market will dwindle to Non-Comcast cable systems that have good HD offerings - a very niche market I suspect.

I'm not sure why you think that. Comcast is big, but it is only about 30% of the US cable market. There is plenty of room in the market for this box completely outside of Comcast. Plus the Comcast subs who will want it anyway. Plus all of the analog subs who will want it for the dual tuners and/or the OTA HD capability. Plus all of the existing TiVo subs who will upgrade just because they can.

 

[ChuckyBox]

Internet Downloads etc - I'll get a Series 2 for that and network it in. They are cheap and will probably do everything the Series 3 will in that respect.

The Series 2 won't play back MPEG4, HD, or 5/6/7.1 sound. The Series 3 will almost certainly have a faster processor, more memory, etc., that will make some features work better -- like interactive applications, games, searches, etc.

Series 3 better Quality - surely both boxes will be simply receiving the MPEG2 data and saving it. How will one be significantly better than the other. Even so if the quality going to be $500-$1000 better - I expect not.

I didn't mean picture quality, I meant that if you list the features side-by-side, the Series 3 will most likely have the advantage. Consumers will have to decide for themselves if the features warrant the expense -- just like they do with everything they buy.

Comcast is only 30% of the market. I have no idea but 30% of your market sounds like at lot.

I was responding to your statement that the non-Comcast HD market was "niche." Relative to a whole market, 70% isn't niche.

All in all I honestly beleive that TiVo not bringing this box out earlier this year is going to be a problem for them.

You're assuming that they could bring it out earlier if they wanted to.

All in all, I don't think a few months is going to make all that much difference in a market that is projected to grow as much as the DVR market over the next several years. The Series 3 is a high-end product targeted to a small subset of the market. The bulk of TiVo's subscription growth for the foreseeable future will come from the Series 2.

 

[ChuckyBox]

NOW I see that Comcast is going to have Series 3 and not DirecTV. I had thought all along that Series 3 was going to be produced as a standalone unit that would work on cable or DirecTV.

This article last night completely confused me again. Tivo walked away from Comcast and now will produce a standalone Comcast only tivo?

http://www.pvrblog.com/pvr/2005/01/tivo_walked_awa.html

That article is one year old. TiVo and Comcast have an agreement for TiVo to provide the TiVo software on top of Comcast's existing Motorola DVRs. The Series 3 is not part of that deal. The Series 3 is TiVo's high-end HD, cable-ready, standalone DVR of the future. Both the Comcast TiVo rollout and the Series 3 are expected in the second half of the year. But, again, they are unrelated to one another except insofar as they both provide TiVo features and the TiVo interface.

 

[ChuckyBox]

Anyone know if this new unit can record an OTA HD signal without having to subscribe to cable? If so, I'd pay $500.00 for it. I would get one to record OTA HD locals since the majority of stuff I record is from network TV. Think it will still have 30 second skip?

Yes, it can. It has an antenna input as well as a cable input, and the necessary tuners to do the job.

My guess is that is will still have the 30-second skip available, but we won't know for sure until someone gets to try out the final product.

 

[ChuckyBox]

Thanks, makes good sense. So do we know if Series 3 compatible with either DirecTV MPEG-2 or MPEG-4? Or are we facing the end of Tivo / DirecTV forever and ever ahmen with the HR10-250 and other models from the last year or so.

For reasons discussed in depth in a couple of other threads on this topic, the Series 3 will not work with satellite TV. (The reasons have to do with technology, price, and politics.) With DTV selling their own DVRs, and TiVo offering to help cable companies take back DTV subs, I don't think the relationship will be renewed. If you have a DirecTiVo now, or can get one in the next couple of months, it will probably continue to work for some time. But you'll likely never get the really cool new TiVo features, nor will you get a replacement from DTV if your box dies -- you'll get the new (non-TiVo) hardware.

 

[ChuckyBox]

I would just like the option of paying too much for it right now. Come on TiVo, take my money. Please.