[jfh3]

I don't want to get into any forbidden stock talk, but would like to get into a discussion of the major announcement made by Tivo on the 2Q results call yesterday that it was taking a one time charge of $11.2M to write off SD unit inventory, presumably S2ST and S2DT inventory.

What do you think this means for the future of the Series 2 platform? Obviously, Tivo will continue to support the Series 2 boxes, but are the days of new Series 2 boxes coming to an end?

For the sake of disucssion, let's assume that TTG and MRV come to the Series 3 boxes later this year as hinted and take that out of the equation.

Here's what I think:

1) Since the Series 2 boxes are the only current boxes to allow satellite subs access to the stand-alone Tivo service, Series 2 boxes will be available, but not emphasized, until #2 happens.

2) I think Tivo and DirecTV may be planning a new DirecTivo that supports mpeg4. Tivo would probably be fine with letting new DirecTV subs go to this box, rather than have an option to use a SA Tivo. When this happens, new SA S2 boxes are essentially useful only to Dish subs. And if Tivo wins the appeal ...

3) There really is no reason (other than the current price difference of the boxes) for a new or existing cable sub to buy a Series 2 box, since the Series 3 box can record any cable channel that a Series 3 can AND do OTA for both analog and digital signals.

I think this is the beginning of the end for the Series 2 platform. I suspect that whatever S2 OS development is underway is pretty much going to be it and that the Series 2 boxes will go the way of the Series 1 - they will continue to work and be supported, just not enhanced (with the possible exception of the HME aps like UnBox that could bring in other revenue).

 

[ZeoTiVo]

once MTV/TTG are on the S3 model line I would have no reason, not even price personally, to buy an S2. Since I have plenty of S2 tuners right now that means I am basically not in the market anymore for S2 models myself.

Now I think the OS on S2 will still be updated into 2008 for sure especially for any broadband apps that can generate TiVo revenue, so I do not fret over my 5 S2 line of TiVo DVRs at all. I would expect by 2009 though that I am fully on S3 line and the S2 are doing only legacy stuff if anything.

 

[aus1ander]

I have a feeling that all *new* production of the S2DT will soon cease, if not already, and they will sell off their inventory and concentrate on the TiVoHD.

I'm pretty sure that they are no longer manufacturing S2 single tuner models anymore. My local Best Buy has so many of them in stock (15+), I'm not sure what will happen to the single tuners...there isn't much of a market for them anymore.

In terms of software enhancement, the S2 platform is far from dead. I have a feeling that any major features released in the next 1-2 years will be cross-platform (S2 and S3) since the S2 accounts for the vast majority of subscribed boxen at this point.

 

[Soapm]

maybe this means huge rebates on S2DT...

 

[c-surfer]

Check the dumpster behind Tivo HQ for that obsolete inventory

 

[rhuntington3]

A Series 3 DirecTivo would be cool.

 

[Soapm]

Check the dumpster behind Tivo HQ for that obsolete inventory

Got my diving suit on, on my way!!!

 

[MickeS]

I think it's pretty sad how TiVo completely missed the boat when it comes to the all-analog non-cable market, where since ReplayTV folded there has been NO competition. Yes, those people likely watch less TV, but that's a selling point for a single tuner DVR, not an obstacle.

That market will soon go away completely, and if TiVo doesn't change, I guess they'll completely miss the digital OTA only market too...

I still have single-tuner S2 that I use every day to play music, videos and record kids shows on. Maybe TiVo should just sell these as non-transferable lifetime sub units meant to be used as network media players?

 

[richsadams]

Good calls one and all. Have to agree that the S2's...as good as they are...are likely going to take up residence with buggy whips. Once all is said and done it wouldn't be surprising if the Original S3's didn't follow suit. (They can always sell Glo Remotes.)

Once they get the bugs worked out of the THD's, introduce a model with a larger HDD (for the current price point; subsequently reducing the cost of the current model), eSATA, TivoToGo, MRV and some sort of SDV resolution they can focus on one basic unit. That'll free up resources to pursue the rest of the cableco and satellite markets.

 

[jfh3]

I think it's pretty sad how TiVo completely missed the boat when it comes to the all-analog non-cable market, where since ReplayTV folded there has been NO competition. Yes, those people likely watch less TV, but that's a selling point for a single tuner DVR, not an obstacle.

That market will soon go away completely, and if TiVo doesn't change, I guess they'll completely miss the digital OTA only market too...

Well, the did have the right idea when they entered into the co-op marketing agreement with the NTCA members, but nothing seemed to come from that.

Tivo keeps saying there is a market for basic analog subs, but they don't seem to be able to figure out how to sell to it.

(Sorry - misread the quote. I don't think there's much of an analog non-cable market. Analog cable, yes.)

 

[wmcbrine]

I think it's pretty sad how TiVo completely missed the boat when it comes to the all-analog non-cable market,

I don't think there is any such market. People who are willing to pay for TV already subscribe to cable or satellite. People who aren't willing to pay for TV, won't be willing to pay for Tivo.

But anyway, the TivoHD works just fine as an OTA-only device. Are you suggesting that they could make it meaningfully cheaper by stripping out the cable functionality? I doubt that.

 

[bicker]

I wouldn't assume the write-down including S2DT. It could just be the remaining S2ST units. I have one here (not listed below) that I won't even bother putting up on eBay. The remote is worth more than the box.

 

[kmill14]

The older generation of TV watchers that have cable but not digital is where Tivo ran into problems. I think this is that largest segment of the population of people who still are on analog, and there is little reason to expect many to jump up and buy Tivo.

 

[Jonathan_S]

But anyway, the TivoHD works just fine as an OTA-only device. Are you suggesting that they could make it meaningfully cheaper by stripping out the cable functionality? I doubt that.

And the cable functionality is all you really could strip out of the TiVoHD.

Remember, the FCC says you can't strip out the digital OTA functionality.
(Which is why the S2DT doesn't support OTA analog, even though the hardware could handle it)

 

[classicsat]

The OS development is nearly the same for Series 2 and 3 platforms. They aren't yet going to abandon developing software for the Series 2 platform any time soon, even if they cease manufacture of the hardware.

As for the hardware, I think they are waiting for the stock of existing Series 2 hardware to get thin enough, so they can launch the TiVoDigital (basically a TiVo HD without HD outputs, and an input for an STB).

 

[jfh3]

As for the hardware, I think they are waiting for the stock of existing Series 2 hardware to get thin enough, so they can launch the TiVoDigital (basically a TiVo HD without HD outputs, and an input for an STB).

You mean take out HDMI and component outputs? Why? Can't imagine they would save much there.

If anything, I'd just have add the composite inputs to the existing box that sat subs could use. Maybe $349 retail instead of $299.

 

[classicsat]

Yup. Judging by the leaked model number, it will have an 80GB drive.