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Speculation: TiVo announces Series 5 Premiere at 2012 CES

16913 Views 57 Replies 27 Participants Last post by  lpwcomp, 
sbiller
I was trying to figure out what TiVo would offer in a Series 5 reference platform for the next generation Premiere. Most of the speculation is a 4-tuner platform but I was curious as to whether they would stay with Broadcom or move on to another System-on-Chip provider. My guess is they will stay with Broadcom.

Regarding new chips that are candidates for the Series 5. All offer 1080p60 output, lower power and higher processing speeds. DLNA support is included. I'm now speculating that TiVo announces the Series 5 Premiere at CES in January 2012 using Broadcom's BCM35230 Full HD 1080p Connected DTV SoC Solution.

The BCM7208 was probably the chip they were going to use in the Premiere but couldn't wait.

BCM7208 was announced in January 2010.
http://www.broadcom.com/products/IPTV/IPTV-Solutions/BCM7208

  • Integrates 1080p60 output supporting high quality HD programming and supports HDMI 1.3 output
  • Support for cost effective memory technologies incorporating high-speed DDR3 (for decoding HD content), high capacity bulk MLC/SLC NAND, SDIO and serial NOR controller technology
  • Integrates power management controllers and regulators, supports Energy Star and European Code of Conduct set-top box requirements, and offers flexible and configurable standby and active modes of operation
  • Uses a single 16-bit DDR2 or DDR3 memory device for SD or HD decode respectively, representing a reduction in the PCB area, as well as bill-of-materials (BOM) cost
  • Supports compelling subscriber applications including RVU Alliance's remote user interface (RUI) technology, CEA-2014 RUI client, Hybrid Broadcast Broadband TV (HbbTV) and Adobe® Flash® Platform for the Digital Home
  • Integrates Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA®) technology support enabling consumers to locate and enjoy digital content anywhere on their home network and effortlessly move or stream this content between DLNA-connected devices
  • Supports a wide range of media formats including DivX®, RealMedia Variable Bitrate (RMVB), China's audio video coding standard (AVS), as well as MPEG-2, AVC and VC-1

BCM35230 was announced in January 2011. This is the chip I think they'll go with for the Series 5 since it supports 3D and Flash 10. It is truly next generation from their current platform since its based on 40nm silicon.
http://www.broadcom.com/products/Digital-TV/Digital-TV-Solutions/BCM35230

The BCM35230 full high definition (HD) connected digital television (DTV) system-on-a-chip (SoC) solution features advanced picture quality enhancements including 120Hz functionality, frame rate conversion, motion compensation, and back-end enhancements for a high quality viewing experience. This next generation connected DTV platform combines a high level of integration with best-in-class picture quality, enabling TV manufacturers to reduce overall system cost and improve picture quality from a single chip design. Supporting 1080p60 input and up to 1080p120 output capabilities, the BCM35230 SoC solution includes new options for accessing video content on a TV through the Internet or a consumer's own in-home network, as well as connected services, dynamic applications and interactive content that are changing the way that consumers use their televisions.

  • A high powered dual core CPU and graphics processing unit (GPU) with 1400+ DMIPS for an uncompromised connected TV experience
  • Industry leading video processing with advanced functionality including 120Hz, frame rate conversion, de-interlacing and super resolution to enhance the viewing experience with Internet, broadcast and/or Blu-ray content
  • Integrated connectivity and support for worldwide broadcast standards that provides a cost effective global platform for Internet TV
  • A 40 nanometer design that includes advanced video and audio decoders and excellent connected TV support such as OpenGL® ES 2.0 for Flash 10

The BCM35230 is being used in LG's next generation Smart TVs announced in January 2011.
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atmuscarella
I actually think the info you posted highlights one of TiVo's future problems.

Future TVs will be powerful enough to pretty much do everything a TiVo does except record stuff to hard drives right out of the box.

If cable cards gets replaced with something that actually works for all pay TV providers (allvid?) it will be easy for new TVs to be your Pay TV STB, media streaming center, and by just adding an external hard drive (NAS?) your DVR.

This is what people want.

In that future TiVo will need to get their software into TVs.

Thanks,
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I
Based off the past, TiVo doesn't like to announce things at CES. They feel they get lost in all the announcements.

I believe it was BKDTV who posted at one time that TiVo would have to go with a newer more efficient chip within a year or so to continue to meet the energy star guidelines, assuming they want to.

My gut feeling says around September we may hear TiVo officially announce the 4 Tuner TiVo. This would be after the deadline for the FCC mandate that tuning adapters support 4 tuners minimum. It might even have a newer chipset since they would have to go with different tuner chips.

I would then expect probably around March 2012 we might hear of a series 5 since it will now have been 2 years since the Premiere was announced. TiVo tends to like March to May announcements and July to September announcements from what I remember at least based off their history of reveals.

It wouldn't make sense to announce a series 5 just after unveiling a 4 tuner TiVo. I could potentially see the series 5 being more like the series 2 where it is released in the wild with no real announcement and is just updated internals. It also makes sense to hold off longer since we still haven't heard any decision from the FCC on Allvid.
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sbiller
innocentfreak said:
Based off the past, TiVo doesn't like to announce things at CES. They feel they get lost in all the announcements.

I believe it was BKDTV who posted at one time that TiVo would have to go with a newer more efficient chip within a year or so to continue to meet the energy star guidelines, assuming they want to.

My gut feeling says around September we may hear TiVo officially announce the 4 Tuner TiVo. This would be after the deadline for the FCC mandate that tuning adapters support 4 tuners minimum. It might even have a newer chipset since they would have to go with different tuner chips.

I would then expect probably around March 2012 we might hear of a series 5 since it will now have been 2 years since the Premiere was announced. TiVo tends to like March to May announcements and July to September announcements from what I remember at least based off their history of reveals.

It wouldn't make sense to announce a series 5 just after unveiling a 4 tuner TiVo. I could potentially see the series 5 being more like the series 2 where it is released in the wild with no real announcement and is just updated internals. It also makes sense to hold off longer since we still haven't heard any decision from the FCC on Allvid.
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Good info. Thanks. You make a good case for announcing earlier. I can't imagine TiVo trying to support two (2) new boxes. They are trying to keep their logistics footprint as small as possible.

I was also thinking they would drop the price on the current XL to $199 and make the new box the high-end offering in the $299 price range.
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davezatz
innocentfreak said:
Based off the past, TiVo doesn't like to announce things at CES. They feel they get lost in all the announcements.
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Not only that, prime retail season is Fall ahead of the holidays.And incidentally, that's when the Premiere was *supposed* to launch.
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lessd
davezatz said:
Not only that, prime retail season is Fall ahead of the holidays.And incidentally, that's when the Premiere was *supposed* to launch.
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I think you are correct as TiVo ran out of Series 3 TiVos in Nov-Dec 2009, but the TP was not ready, but by March of 2010 TiVo had to do something so they released the Series 4 (half backed as some on this form think). I think TiVo uses about a three year window between new series, if they hold to that it will be the fall of 2012 or 2013 for any Series 5, or there may no stand alone retail Series 5, just a box with VOD for different cable cos with a pre-configured cable card as a total replacement for the cable co.s DVR.
The stand alone retail DRV market is not so good for TiVo or anybody.
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ZeoTiVo
lessd said:
The stand alone retail DRV market is not so good for TiVo or anybody.
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yep, they are not exactly missing sales if they do not get this box out soon. On the other hand, if a series 5 is demonstrably better done it would go a long way toward rebuilding the perception of TiVo as a good software provider.
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Raymond Day
Thank you for posting this. I did not know they were coming out with a new one. I was thinking it use a Atom CPU that has 2 cores and used low power and it 1.66 MHz each core.

Is the 120 FPS for 3D. Will cable broadcast 3D TV soon.

I just seem my first 3D TV in the store yesterday. The person showed me. They had a Blu-Ray 3D DVD playing and the glasses were polarized ones so don't take a battery. It looked very good. I was impressed with it.

-Raymond Day
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CuriousMark
Raymond Day said:
Thank you for posting this. I did not know they were coming out with a new one.
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This is wild speculation. We have no idea if they are or not. Your Atom ideas fit right in and are just as possible as what was posted above as far as I can tell.
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TerpBE
I just assumed that Tivo's next "big announcement" will be the "whole house DVR", which has 4 tuners and can stream to multiple receiver boxes.
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aaronwt
Problem is four tuners is not enough for a "whole House DVR". There will be too many conflicts especially if there are four or five people in the house scheduling shows.
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I
True, but most cable companies don't view it this way and this is pretty much who it was designed for. There would be nothing stopping you from getting multiple units.

I kind of wish TiVo, not some company like Ahead, would get back into desktop software especially now with CableCARD tuners available. Give me the HDUI on a desktop with the ability to add tuners. It would still have the TiVo Desktop functionality built in along with the iPad app functionality. You could then still have a Premiere or their future extender unit at every TV.

Either that or add WTV support so I can mix and match TiVo with Media Center without having to jump through a bunch of hoops.
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sbiller
aaronwt said:
Problem is four tuners is not enough for a "whole House DVR". There will be too many conflicts especially if there are four or five people in the house scheduling shows.
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I'm not sure about household demographics but four tuners would be plenty for my family. There will be support (more speculation) to have multiple Series 5's so you can easily expand to 8 tuners. I would think they will continue to support the Premiere as well for MRV and streaming.
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Dan203
TiVo has always had a cycle... They release a new series, then a couple years later they release a cheaper version of that same series. They released the original blue/gray S2, then a couple years later they released the cheaper night light S2, they released the original S3 and then a couple years later they released the cheaper TiVo HD. If the pattern holds then the next release will not be a S5, it will be a revision of the S4 that makes them cheaper to manufacturer. Now there have been some in between units released over the years as well, like the DVD units and the DirecTV units, but they've always been based on the same basic hardware platform as the current generation unit available at that time. So if a 4 tuner model does hit the streets this year it will likely contain the same basic hardware as the current Premier units.

I think it's going to be a couple more years, at least, before we see anything labeled as an Series 5.

Dan
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shwru980r
If a cable user is going to have to split the coax three ways for pay per view, tuning adapter and tivo and then also need a truck roll to pair the cable card, why bother?

The Series 5 needs to have everything integrated like the cable company DVR and the customer can either call in or enter a serial number on the cable company web site to activate.

A four tuner Tivo might encourage existing users to upgrade and then cancel the subscription on a second Tivo.
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sbiller
shwru980r said:
If a cable user is going to have to split the coax three ways for pay per view, tuning adapter and tivo and then also need a truck roll to pair the cable card, why bother?

The Series 5 needs to have everything integrated like the cable company DVR and the customer can either call in or enter a serial number on the cable company web site to activate.

A four tuner Tivo might encourage existing users to upgrade and then cancel the subscription on a second Tivo.
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Truck Rolls for pairing will become a thing of the past this year for most MSOs. I agree that having the TA built in makes sense to support SDV.
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lessd
Dan203 said:
TiVo has always had a cycle... they released the original S3 and then a couple years later they released the cheaper TiVo HD. If the pattern holds then the next release will not be a S5, it will be a revision of the S4 that makes them cheaper to manufacturer. Now there have been some in between units released over the years as well, like the DVD units and the DirecTV units, but they've always been based on the same basic hardware platform as the current generation unit available at that time. So if a 4 tuner model does hit the streets this year it will likely contain the same basic hardware as the current Premier units.

I think it's going to be a couple more years, at least, before we see anything labeled as an Series 5.

Dan
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The original Series 3 was released in September of 2006, the TiVo-HD was released in June/July of 2007, about 9 months for the less expensive model. In the case of the Series 3 there was a big difference in the cost of the original Series 3 and the TiVo-HD, at $99 I don't see what cost advantage TiVo could get with a lower price Series 4 or how it could be made for a lot less money, the only major new feature TiVo could introduce that would have real meaning would more than two tuners, and that would most likely be a hit on total sales, unless TiVo went to a sub/tuner.
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Dan203 said:
TiVo has always had a cycle... They release a new series, then a couple years later they release a cheaper version of that same series.... So if a 4 tuner model does hit the streets this year it will likely contain the same basic hardware as the current Premier units.

I think it's going to be a couple more years, at least, before we see anything labeled as an Series 5.

Dan
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Don't forget though the hardware prices for the Premiere were already lower than past situations though. This should speed up hardware development especially as hardware continues to evolve and drop in price. Just look at hard drives which have plummeted over the past two years.

I agree about the 4 tuner potentially being based off the Premiere, but since the tuners would be different there is a chance they could also update the broadcom chip. It might need it to support the additional streams.

I don't see the series 5 being that far off, but you are probably right that they won't refer to it as a series 5. I think TiVo is aiming for the Premiere to almost be a platform that itself gets updated over time.

I would guess the series 5 would probably be the Allvid box since the hardware requirements would hopefully change with the potential elimination of CableCARDs.
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shwru980r said:
A four tuner Tivo might encourage existing users to upgrade and then cancel the subscription on a second Tivo.
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lessd said:
the only major new feature TiVo could introduce that would have real meaning would more than two tuners, and that would most likely be a hit on total sales, unless TiVo went to a sub/tuner.
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I don't think that many people have two TiVos in the same room which is why they are working on an extender model also. I see the 4 tuner box having a higher price but also possibly a higher monthly fee and higher lifetime though other than development costs it shouldn't. They would then make money off the extender which more than likely will also require some type of subscription.
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atmuscarella
When it comes to "what should TiVo Build Next and when will it happen" allot seems to have to due with the amount of sales volume they can (or can not) generate. What I mean by that is they must need to contract to make so many DVRs each time they change models and their slow sales volumes maybe causing longer periods between hardware updates. Lets be honest if they had a large enough sales volume they would be able to make more models that would be better tailored to different users.

Right now they seem to have to rely on existing customers to upgrade way to much. Honestly in the past when I bought a DVD player, VCR, TV, Receiver or what ever I didn't replace it until it broke. I understand in the move from analog to digital and SD to HD many people (including me) upgraded components that were still working but I have no intention on continuing to do that now that I have moved to HD and really don't see why I would replace any of my current TiVos until it broke.
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