[mazman]

I’m considering retiring my 5 year old Series 2 box (with lifetime) and getting a second TiVo HD – but I think I’ll skip the lifetime transfer offer and just plug the Series 2 box in every 6 months to keep MSD going.

Here’s why I’ve come to that decision:

- My S2 will only need to operate for 2 days a year for three years in order for me to maintain MSD. I think that the chances that a new lifetime unit may fail/need service are greater than the S2 failing. Don’t know what everyone else’s experience is, but I’ve had to repair my lifetime unit twice already ($200+ additional cost). I’ve already had to RMA my first TiVo HD, which also makes me uncomfortable about transferring lifetime now.

- Breakeven for $199 lifetime vs. $7 per month (3 yr commitment) is 28 months. After 3 years, I will have spent $53 more on monthly service than with lifetime. Thereafter, it’s another $72 per year more costly. But after 3 years I have the option of upgrading (to a Series 4!) which I wouldn’t have if I transferred lifetime now.

- You KNOW that TiVo is going to offer lifetime transfer again, and given that this time they put a date criteria on it, I don’t want to be shut out on the next go around.

- I have to believe that sometime in (early) 2008 TiVo will offer a rebate program on the TiVo HD so I might be able to save few bucks there.

So, what do you guys think – am I missing something here?

 

[Resist]

You've done the math. The only thing you would be missing out on is HD recordings of your shows right now. But I agree with you about waiting for a better savings.

 

[wickerbill]

He's going to have HD. He's just going to pay the $6.95/month MSD fee for his Tivo HD instead of transferring lifetime to it. I think I'm going to do the same thing since both of my series 2 lifetime boxes don't qualify as their activation date was after the cutoff date, though I'll probably sell one of the lifetime series 2's on ebay to pay for the Tivo HD.

 

[pkscout]

That actually sounds like a pretty good idea. I kind of wish I had kept my Series 2 to do something just like this (although I got good money for it on eBay).

 

[Resist]

What does MSD mean again and how does activating it twice a year keep the MSD current?

 

[tomryan]

What does MSD mean again and how does activating it twice a year keep the MSD current?

the lifetime boxes need to call home once in a while (2x a year) to keep MSD (multi service discount) available to other boxes.

 

[ah30k]

What does MSD mean again and how does activating it twice a year keep the MSD current?

TiVo requires the primary box to dial in periodically to prevent a situation where someone has a dinosaur S1 lifetime that has long since been in the local landfill being used to get a second unit at the MSD discount.

 

[spaceboytom]

- Breakeven for $199 lifetime vs. $7 per month (3 yr commitment) is 28 months. After 3 years, I will have spent $53 more on monthly service than with lifetime. Thereafter, it’s another $72 per year more costly. But after 3 years I have the option of upgrading (to a Series 4!) which I wouldn’t have if I transferred lifetime now.

Plus the $199 is paid up front. So take into account the time value of that $199 and you come out to around 3 years for break even. And can anybody realistically predict where Tivo as a company will be 3 years from now? At some point they need to turn a steady profit to stay in business.

I believe that Tivo will eventually try and get all the series 1 machines off the books so they won't have to maintain them. They would have to make it worth while to upgrade/transfer service to a newer box since they can't just discontinue a lifetime subscription. Until that day, my series 1 will sit in the corner conntecting to make it's daily call to maintain my MSD discount on series 2 DT and series 3 TivoHD boxes.

Since I just bought a TivoHD 2 months ago, I'm not eligible for the transfer. In essence it would cost me $500 to transfer my lifetime. Not gonna happen.

 

[mattack]

Plus the $199 is paid up front. So take into account the time value of that $199 and you come out to around 3 years for break even.

Wait, doesn't that mean that you're claiming 28.5% interest over those 3 years?
(36/28 = 1.2857...)

 

[ah30k]

Wait, doesn't that mean that you're claiming 28.5% interest over those 3 years?
(36/28 = 1.2857...)

If you run an NPV on shelling out $199 now and saving $7/mo at 5% APR the payoff comes in just around 2.5 or 3 years.

 

[spaceboytom]

Wait, doesn't that mean that you're claiming 28.5% interest over those 3 years?
(36/28 = 1.2857...)

Remember that is over figured 3 years. And I said AROUND 3 years.

For a $199 principle at 15.5% annually for 3 year, the monthly payment is $6.95.

For a $199 principle at 8.0% annually for 32 months, the monthly payment is $6.95.

8% is a pretty standand figure to use.

15.5% is probably about an average credit card rate.

A good investor can probobly make 15%+ a year.

And my point too is if Tivo goes under or sells out in those 3 years then your lifetime subscription doesn't gaurantee anything. At some point the company has to turn consistent profit.

 

[urungus]

TiVo requires the primary box to dial in periodically to prevent a situation where someone has a dinosaur S1 lifetime that has long since been in the local landfill being used to get a second unit at the MSD discount.

Could the person with their S1 in the landfill for several years transfer its lifetime service to a new Tivo HD during the current $199 promotion?