They'll probably have the same offer Black Friday except with refurb units that are $50-$100 less, but there's no guarantee so I might just take the e-mail up on it's offer.
I just ordered the 500gb Bolt and looking at my order history it's really not a bad deal as is. Including tax it's just $99 more than I paid for a refurbed Roamio OTA this past Black Friday. That gets you a faster processor, cable card bracket for cable option, and a built-in backup Stream.They key words with these offers. In my experience, if you expect that they'll be back, they won't be, and if you don't expect them, they reappear.
No other realistic options exist at this time other than putting a 3TB 3.5" drive in an external enclosure. There's a WD 3TB 2.5" drive which is the stock drive in the Bolt+ but it's not generally available to the public and even if you can find it costs well over $100 more than the Toshiba.Please recommend a 2.5" 3TB drive for a Bolt upgrade other than the Toshiba MQ03ABB300
I just want more options
Charter doesn't have a webpage and I'm suspicious of them so I'll probably leave the cablecard where it is in a Roamio Basic and use the Bolt as my primary OTA box, for now.
I believe, since there are presumably many more lifetimed Premieres operating in the field than there were lifetimed older units for those previous offers, that this offer will generate as least as many sales as the previous ones. The real question pertaining to if they'll run out of stock is how much inventory TiVo has allocated for this sale vs. the other ones.In April certain Bolt models (I don't remember which) went in and out of stock during the offer. I think that offer had a high uptake rate due to the donor models being older SD TiVos with limited utility compared to any of the HD TiVo models. Even though a Premiere with Lifetime is arguably worth more than an S2 with Lifetime, TiVo really didn't sweeten the offer for Premiere owners*. I personally don't expect this offer to be as popular as the April offer so it might not sell out before expiration (the April offer also went on for several weeks).
What your analysis ignores is the economic value of not having the hassle of finding a buyer on ebay and shipping your Premier. Also not taking into account that Premiers have different value to different owners. Some may use it as their primary box. Others may not use it for much at all but still get enough value from it that they wouldn't initiate a unilateral sale of it on eBay. The upgrade offer takes all of the risk out of the round trip transaction up front since TiVo is effectively buying your Premier back. They benefit by reducing the number of Premiers to support in the field, which they'll eventually sunset support of anyway.Basically you are coming out even.
So IMO the LT P4 transfer deal from TiVo (and I am using the ebay numbers that you provided of $250 and $550) gets you ever so slightly ahead but isn't a flaming hot deal.