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· Beware of Conky!
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1,009 Posts
jordanz said:
The vast majority of Tivo's business comes from DirecTV.
The Directv deal generated approximately 14% of net revenues of Tivo for the 2nd quarter of this year.

source:
Form 10Q for the Quarter Ended April 30, 2005

...and that was before any revenue was realized for the comcast deal, not to mention the latest cable and ad deals.

It took me less than 5 minutes to find that info using google. "This is the end of Tivo"? Not by a long shot.

If you continue to take the word of today's media as fact without question in this as well as other subjects, it will be hard for anyone to take any of your comments seriously.

Don't let them led you around by your winkie.
Verify all facts.
If you can't, don't believe them.
It's too easy to find the truth.
 

· Crush!Kill!Destroy!
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989 Posts
I could be pleasantly surprised, but I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. My guess is that the NDS XTV software is not going to be as good, reliable or as flexible as the TIVO software is. A lot of people who currently have a DirecTIVO and love it are going to try switching to the NDS XTV device and a few will be okay with it and others won't be. Quite a few will choose to keep using the DirecTIVO box that they have for as long as they can and forgo any new services using MPEG-4 compression. Certainly, I wouldn't think that interactive services alone are going to sell the NDS XTV box.

THe Ucentric server box is a variable for me. I have no idea if it will be as good, reliable and as flexible as my DirecTIVO or not. I believe it probably has a better chance of doing so than the NDS XTV box does, but I have no real basis for that belief other than faith and hope. ;)

TIVO will go on and sign up with various cable television companies and at some point there will be a bunch of churn from DirecTV to the local cable company which provides TIVO service. I really hope that TIVO signs a Time Warner deal. As they may be taking over my local Adelphia that would be awesome in terms of providing additional choices for me.

It would also be very cool to see TIVO sign a deal with Verizon to provide DVRs for their FIOS television service.
 

· Beware of Conky!
Joined
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1,009 Posts
jordanz said:
That same 10Q shows that 77% of new subscriber adds in the quarter were from DirecTV. Even in the cumulative subscriptions, DirecTV accounts for nearly 50%.
Yes, and as Chase Carey stated, those subscribers are not being forced to the new directv platform. They will still be tivo subs at least until '07.(discounting the historic 0.5% churn) By that time, the comcast deal will be in full swing, replacing and even exceeding those numbers. ...not to mention the NCTC deal.
Let's not forget, even though directv subs are just under 50% of the total sub count, they represent just 14% of their revenue. Also note that the directv deal has been generating less and less of tivo's total bottom line due to tivo's other revenue partners and deals, even as the directv/tivo subs have increased.
jordanz said:
Another comment in the 10Q: "We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth."
... as part of their adherence to SEC rules and regs pertaining to risk statements.
(this is from page 9 of the form 10Q linked above, in case someone wants to verify for themselves and see all kinds of other nasty things that "might" come to pass)

It's standard fare to lay out all risks for the investors, no matter how remote.
...actually, it's the law.
 

· Bill Kearney
Joined
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1,990 Posts
BillyT2002 said:
It would also be very cool to see TIVO sign a deal with Verizon to provide DVRs for their FIOS television service.
I have FIOS service out on the pole in front of the house. If they make a two-tuner (or better) Tivo-based unit I'd *seriously* drop DirecTV in a heartbeat. I have no desire to EVER pay comcast ANY money more ANYTHING. They're just bastards. Verizon's nearly as bad but at least the FCC does a better job of keeping them in line.
 
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