[FlWingNut]

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

Yeah, good luck with that. The Directivo is a nice machine, but D* will do fine. Most folks, I would guess, just want a good DVR. I have 2 Directivos but really prefered UTV. Better UI, in my opinion, faster, more logical. So why did I switch? The extra 5 bucks a month D* wanted for it, compared to Tivo. Couldn't justify that. The Tivo experience, once I got used to its annoyances (no caller ID, no PIP, slow menus, having to do with three buton presses what UTV did in one) has been just fine, but if the R15 experience is just as good, I think you'll find it doesn't matter to most subscribers. I signed up for D*, Tivo's just along for the ride.

 

[jmoak]

I see a lot of folks (and expert analysts) assumeing that the first day that directv begins selling the r15's is the last day we'll see any "tivo powered" dvr's sold at directv, discounting the units already in the supply chain. aka, the release of the r15 spells the end of the directv/tivo era.

Let's "assume" that directv has some common sense for the moment....()

The quality and the resulting churn rate of users of the r15 will be the deciding factor for the "end of tivo w/directv".

If the customer is happy and the churn rate is equal to or less than 0.5% (dtivo's worst historic churn), no more tivo.

Tivo took on competition at directv from a company with one of the biggest r&d departments and the deepest pockets of any company in the world...... and won. Can they do it again?

Directv has pushed back the release date of their new dvr quite a few times now, with the latest delay coming even after telling their retailers "Here they come!"

Directv's got until 2007 to find out if they can do it or not.

after days with no response...
noone thinks churn, customer reaction and satisfaction has anything to do with it? why the heck do i do this?? nobody even reads my posts anymore.....

 

[bidger]

LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million

do you want to restate YOUR statement?

Thanks for providing the numbers Lee. I couldn't help but groan when I saw the statement about how TiVo MADE DirecTV by patonenow. What made DirecTV, and Dish for that matter, was that they blindsided cable through cable's estimation they would always be a "rural" provider, which lead to an apathetic "take it or leave it" attitude on their part, IMO. When locals started being provided, that really opened the floodgates

I did own a TiVo prior to owning a D-TiVo, still do. I keep one for OTA and even if DirecTV offered locals in my area, I intend to keep the SA so I can keep my CBS, FOX, and PBS distant nets. I was with DirecTV for over two years before buying one. I do have to say I see no reason whatsoever to buy a non-DVR receiver from this point forward. I will use my D-TiVos until they are no longer operational, but I will keep checking out threads on the DirecTV DVRs to check out what they might offer that's not currently on the D-TiVos. That doesn't necessarily mean I'll buy one, but I'd like to keep informed.

 

[patonenow]

LEE, Not trying to start an argument,especially with one that loved SELENA much as I do. I trust the figures you presented but looking at that would you say that about4 and a half million subscribers were picked up in the last 5 years? And how many years did it take to reach the 2000 figure? And as everyone knows figures can be made to show whatever one wants just as the government plays with them everyday. For example how many subscribers were reabsorbed or retained by offering the "new" TIVO.
My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here. I am 63 and have been around this game with the dishes a very long time. So suffice it to say I stand by my opinion and wish you all luck. Only wish that all the gadgets they have today were around when I was younger.

 

[Justin Thyme]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. ... I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.

I get it. $2000 for an HDTV but 12.95/month is too high. My wife doesn't go to blockbuster anymore after tivo- So any DVR is better than no DVR. Question is which. You are putting forward a price argument and it doesn't wash. Here's why-

Today, you can go to Tivo.com and buy an SA Tivo for $299 and never pay any service fee ever. Or you can Pay Dish $349 for their DVR box, plus $5/month for DVR "access fees".

Which number is bigger? You do the math.

When you are done scratching your head over that one, check out the prices of tivos with lifetime subs on Ebay. That's right- three year old Tivo boxes with lifetime subs go for $250 or so. You think your resale will be that high on a Carrier provided box? Think again. Most carrier boxes get tossed.

Tivo has the added option that you don't have to pay $299 up front if you don't want. You can effectively rent the thing for $12.95 and so you can jump ship anytime you want. For many leary of fads, this is appealing, but they don't jump.

As for HD? Go visit your local store. That wall that was once filled with HDTV flat panels is now filled with EDTVs at a fraction the price. HD is great for sports and videophiles. Most people simply don't care and often don't even notice if one speaker of a stereo is unplugged.

That's reality.

So what do people really ask for- they want to archive their shows permanently. So does Direct have any intention of providing TTG or a DVD burner DVR? You bet they don't. To my knowlege, not a single carrier does offer such a box. How much you want to bet they put macrovision and color striping in to keep you from burning with an external DVD recorder.

As far as I am concerned, the carriers still have a hand to play, but as hardware encoder chips come down, they will seee what little advantage they now have slip away. Whether the big winner is Tivo, Apple's, Microsoft's or Sony's DVR box is anyone's guess. But the days of the carriers being able to dictate consumer hardware choices will soon be over for good.

 

[bidger]

My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here.

Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.

 

[lee espinoza]

Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.

Just to tell you, I just got a DSR708 and I AM in a BIG MARKET

 

[jmoak]

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base.

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q

 

[lee espinoza]

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q

In the 10-Q report it says that DIRECTV GENERATED 14% TO 15% OF TIVO's net revenues

DIRECTV generated
approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues for the three months ended April 30, 2005 and 2004, respectively

and DIRECTV pays TIVO $ 1.19 PER MONTH per DIRECTVTIVO SUB

We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth.
Our relationship with DIRECTV could be affected in the future by News Corp.’s acquisition of The DIRECTV Group. On
December 22, 2003, News Corp. acquired General Motor’s 19.8% economic interest in Hughes, subsequently renamed The
DIRECTV Group. Simultaneously, News Corp. acquired an additional 14.2% of The DIRECTV Group for a total of 34% of its
outstanding stock. It is possible that DIRECTV under News Corp. could seek to transition to an alternative DVR technology platform,
such as that created by NDS, which is majority-owned by News Corp. It is also possible News Corp. may slow the pace of DVR
deployment by DIRECTV in an effort to protect its content businesses from perceived threats posed by DVRs. DIRECTV has
recently announced that its core initiatives and new customer acquisition will focus on its new DVR from NDS. As a consequence,
the growth in the number of DIRECTV customers with TiVo service could be harmed in the future resulting in the loss of future high
margin revenues.

If our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or replaced, our business could
be harmed. A significant number of our new and existing TiVo service subscriptions are DIRECTV customers with TiVo service.
Our current development agreement with DIRECTV does not expire until February 2007. Neither TiVo nor DIRECTV will have any
further obligations to each other if our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or
replaced. While DIRECTV would have the right to continue to service existing DIRECTV receivers with TiVo service without
payment to us, it would not have the right to add new DIRECTV customers with TiVo service. And while TiVo would no longer be
able to generate additional revenue from the then-current DIRECTV customers with TiVo service, we would have no further
obligation to provide upgrades, fixes, new features, or software support. DIRECTV, however, also has the option under our current
development agreement to buy a royalty-bearing software and technology license from us. This license would grant DIRECTV access
to our source code and technology to make, modify (with certain exceptions), sell, and distribute DIRECTV receivers with TiVo
service to add new subscribers after the expiration of our current agreement.

 

[Justin Thyme]

Like I was saying, the revenue picture tells a different story.

approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues

Kind of makes you wonder what the Morgan analysts are thinking.

Going with Murdoch owned NDS Group software provides features Tivo users only dream about- like Snapshot. Just imagine being able to take a still frame of anything you see on television and sending the picture to your telephone. And, always keeping the user's interests number one, NDS gives the user the ability to preview the image before demanding payment.

No figures are given, but I'm sure the mobile phone service providers and Murdoch's organization will work out a figure that will not surprize anyone.

Of course, with Tivo with TTG or an MCE for about $900 more you can grab frames to your hearts content and load them directly onto your phone without any permission, software feature, or fee from either your carrier or your cell phone company.

 

[Brewer4]

You can do video anywhere with a normal XP machine or even the new Sling Media. Sling is not Cell Phone or PDA ready YET, but it will be. Just wait.

I use Snapstream Beyond TV and its absolutely incredible. All you need is a compatible capture card, XP PC, Snapstream software and you can send video anywhere in the world on your own hosted webpage. Mine is working fantastic. I have 768k upload so the picture is just great on a 15 inch screen streamed. Placeshifting is becoming a reality and a pretty darn reliable one too.

 

[mikeinla]

You need to look forward to understand this issue, and I don't think it's that hard to do.

The future in cable/satellite is dvr's. In 5-10 years, almost everyone will have one, akin to today's vcr or dvd player.

He with the best dvr wins the battle. If DirecTV downgrades their dvr to make it no better than a cable company, they will be at a serious competitive disadvantage. DirecTV requires a serious committment, in terms of installation, hardware costs and a yearlong contract. Cable is like flipping a light switch; if you don't like it, get rid of it. No harm, no foul.

Tivo is heads and shoulders above Moxi or SA. From what I've read about the R15, it's a mediocre copy of Tivo.

I wonder if the folks at DirecTV know the meaning of the word "hubris".

 

[C_Roberts]

Relyability - ease of use

The thing to bring me to DTV was the D*Tivo. I had DISH for 5 years and was at first loving it when they came out with the Dishplayer, but after about a year of a love/hate realtionship with it (I loved the idea but hated reseting it almost everyday and losing many recordings) I saw a large group talking about the D*Tivo. I tried one at a friends house and since they were recently discounted to $99 I bought two 6000's. 3 years later and one upgraded to 164 hours I had not missed one recording but they were getting very slow. 4 months ago I replaced them both with R-10s. They are many times faster and still nothing wrong, until today one of them has a bad HD.

I would stay loyal with the Tivo unless the future HD Tivo like box can prove to be as well made as the Tivo and be as reliable and as easy to use.

Now go to the upgrade forum and help me with my HD upgrade issue with my R-10.

 

[Chris Gerhard]

Although I believe DirecTV will be able to come up with a very good DVR, if it doesn't happen, I am sure DirecTV has the ability to negotiate a new TiVo agreement and continue TiVo service. Without TiVo or a comparable alternative, I am not going to continue my subscription with DirecTV and I am sure I am not alone with that opinion.

Chris

 

[bonscott87]

He with the best dvr wins the battle.

Actually that would be incorrect. Cable has mostly inferior DVR's and yet millions stick with them. Many would say that Dish's DVR is inferior and yet over a million stick with Dish and their DVR.

At the end of the day 98% of the public could care less what their DVR is (they all think they are a Tivo anyway). To them even an "inferior" DVR is 100% better then their old VCR and they are happy as punch.

Don't let your love for Tivo blind you.

 

[FlWingNut]

Actually that would be incorrect. Cable has mostly inferior DVR's and yet millions stick with them. Many would say that Dish's DVR is inferior and yet over a million stick with Dish and their DVR.

At the end of the day 98% of the public could care less what their DVR is (they all think they are a Tivo anyway). To them even an "inferior" DVR is 100% better then their old DVR and they are happy as punch.

Don't let your love for Tivo blind you.

Agreed. The history of technology is rife with examples of superior technology losing to superior marketing. Most agree Beta was superior to VHS, Mac OS is infinitely superior to the buggy, unstable Windows platform and UTV was better than Tivo. All lost out to a competitor with better marketing.

 

[kbohip]

After reading the manual on the new Directv R-15 I can see things that are better and worse than the R-10. The better being the longer live buffer and the time remaining to record indicator. The worse being no wishlists. I would really miss this TiVo feature as I use it a lot. Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho. All in all it sounds like Directv is beginning to be a lot more Dish like with their DVR's, and this is a very bad thing. Dish DVR's are why I no longer have Dish.

 

[mikeinla]

First, there's been a great misreading of history.

Beta was not better than VHS. The picture quality difference was negligible (especially on smaller tv's) and VHS had a much longer recording capacity. Consumers made the choice: much longer recording capacity over marginal picture improvement. Easy to understand.

Apple's problems were solely due to they refused to license their operating system to other computer makers; Microsoft freely licensed DOS/Windows. The result: more manufacturers of Windows computers, lower prices. I love Macintosh, buy they are way overpriced. Easy to understand.

Cable DVR's are bound to get better, especially since they view it as a principle tool to fight satellite. If DirecTV goes backward with a product no better than cable, why would you switch? If you have cable internet, the price differential is largely negated. Additionally, what keeps most from using DirecTV is the equipment investment.

Hubris...such a good word!

 

[lee espinoza]

After reading the manual on the new Directv R-15 I can see things that are better and worse than the R-10. The better being the longer live buffer and the time remaining to record indicator. The worse being no wishlists. I would really miss this TiVo feature as I use it a lot. Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho. All in all it sounds like Directv is beginning to be a lot more Dish like with their DVR's, and this is a very bad thing. Dish DVR's are why I no longer have Dish.

Look at page 27 aka Autorecord a find

 

[bonscott87]

Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho.

Uhhh, we'll have no way of knowing that until someone tries it. If it's like the BBSky box on which it's based then dropping in a hard drive will be easier then a Tivo (basically drop it in and forget it, no hacking).