[jmoak]

from a PC Mag article a few months ago:

The DIRECTV DVR will compete head on with TiVo-based DirecTV branded DVRs. The company will continue to offer both "for the foreseeable future", claimed a rep at the company's booth.

...but who knows....
Forget what directv says. I guess cnbc knows more about what directv is going to do than directv does.

 

[jmoak]

I see a lot of folks (and expert analysts) assumeing that the first day that directv begins selling the r15's is the last day we'll see any "tivo powered" dvr's sold at directv, discounting the units already in the supply chain. aka, the release of the r15 spells the end of the directv/tivo era.

Let's "assume" that directv has some common sense for the moment....()

The quality and the resulting churn rate of users of the r15 will be the deciding factor for the "end of tivo w/directv".

If the customer is happy and the churn rate is equal to or less than 0.5% (dtivo's worst historic churn), no more tivo.

Tivo took on competition at directv from a company with one of the biggest r&d departments and the deepest pockets of any company in the world...... and won. Can they do it again?

Directv has pushed back the release date of their new dvr quite a few times now, with the latest delay coming even after telling their retailers "Here they come!"

Directv's got until 2007 to find out if they can do it or not.

after days with no response...
noone thinks churn, customer reaction and satisfaction has anything to do with it? why the heck do i do this?? nobody even reads my posts anymore.....

 

[jmoak]

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base.

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q

 

[jmoak]

The $.02 question I have is will these forums still be considered "Tivo" forums once DTV releases the non-Tivo dvr and people start discussing the non-Tivo dvr rather than the Tivo?

from a post by ebonovic:
I sent a PM to Unixadmin, about posting a Review on the R15...

He said for the time being, R15 discussion will be allowed here, primarily for it "comparison" quality to the DTivos...

BUT... when it get into support and "upgarde" discussions for the R15, then that is where the line will be drawn... And we will have to move ( sniff ) else where... Avsforum has a DVR section, SATguys, DBSforum ect...

...although I'll bet that david will quickly have a forum for it on the avs board.

As far as this forum... well, it IS the "Tivo Community", right?

 

[jmoak]

... people on these forums don't seem to use the dual "live" buffers that much and I'm sure it's used even less by the majority of those out there that have never even heard of this forum.....

Best reason for dual buffers?
FOOTBALL!!

two buffers?? Baaah! I bet they taste sour anyway.....

 

[jmoak]

The vast majority of Tivo's business comes from DirecTV.

The Directv deal generated approximately 14% of net revenues of Tivo for the 2nd quarter of this year.

source:
Form 10Q for the Quarter Ended April 30, 2005

...and that was before any revenue was realized for the comcast deal, not to mention the latest cable and ad deals.

It took me less than 5 minutes to find that info using google. "This is the end of Tivo"? Not by a long shot.

If you continue to take the word of today's media as fact without question in this as well as other subjects, it will be hard for anyone to take any of your comments seriously.

Don't let them led you around by your winkie.
Verify all facts.
If you can't, don't believe them.
It's too easy to find the truth.

 

[jmoak]

That same 10Q shows that 77% of new subscriber adds in the quarter were from DirecTV. Even in the cumulative subscriptions, DirecTV accounts for nearly 50%.

Yes, and as Chase Carey stated, those subscribers are not being forced to the new directv platform. They will still be tivo subs at least until '07.(discounting the historic 0.5% churn) By that time, the comcast deal will be in full swing, replacing and even exceeding those numbers. ...not to mention the NCTC deal.
Let's not forget, even though directv subs are just under 50% of the total sub count, they represent just 14% of their revenue. Also note that the directv deal has been generating less and less of tivo's total bottom line due to tivo's other revenue partners and deals, even as the directv/tivo subs have increased.

Another comment in the 10Q: "We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth."

... as part of their adherence to SEC rules and regs pertaining to risk statements.
(this is from page 9 of the form 10Q linked above, in case someone wants to verify for themselves and see all kinds of other nasty things that "might" come to pass)

It's standard fare to lay out all risks for the investors, no matter how remote.
...actually, it's the law.