[Justin Thyme]

The revenue stream from Direct needs to be looked at- as has often been said, the raw numbers of users is extremely misleading. Tivo get $1 per unit for direct, $12 for SA. That means in terms of revenue growth, Direct is around 20% of the picture for Tivo. Lots and lots of DirectTivo users have to leave for this to have much real impact.

The Forbes article said this:

The research firm [JP Morgan] said DirecTV could begin to transition its TiVo base to new technology, starting with shipments of the first non-TiVo digital video recorders in August or September. "We believe such a DirecTV D-Day would rattle investor confidence, since DirecTV drives more than 70% of current TiVo subscriber growth,"

Subscriber growth. Not revenue growth. And notte the soft terminology that mirrors Direct's PR stance on the subject- They are saying transition- not positiioning it as some sort of agressive switchover plan, such as big giveaways, making DirecTivo users switch over, plans to remove turn off service to Tivo units as part of the switchover etc.

IMHO, I think DirecTV may get a "New Coke" reaction from their subscribers, and will take a second look at the role of Tivo after observing advertising revenues that Comcast gets from a Tivo partnership.

We'll see. So far we haven't seen good Ipod or Mac clones even though Apple has been around for 2 decades. Good UI seems elusive for most companies. I don't know why that is. Good luck to them- if it really does everything that the Tivo does (as jmoak's pcmag article quoted DirecTv as boasting), then I'm for it. I am extremely skeptical they will do TTG or HME, but hey if they do, that would be cool.

 

[Justin Thyme]

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.

What's the option? Buying an SA Tivo.

Do you think that all DVRs from Direct will be free? They aren't for Dish. I am on Dish, and they have had a DVR for a while now. Dish wants me to give them $300 for theirs. Sure a new customer to Direct, like Dish may get a "free" one. The second one will likely be $300 though.

So compare that to a street price of around $100 for a tivo that can be upgraded to HD storage far in excess of anything Direct will ever offer.

So they may take the free one, then get a Tivo SA for the bedroom. Now they see the difference. Then they have a perspective on the Tivo advantage.

 

[Justin Thyme]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. ... I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.

I get it. $2000 for an HDTV but 12.95/month is too high. My wife doesn't go to blockbuster anymore after tivo- So any DVR is better than no DVR. Question is which. You are putting forward a price argument and it doesn't wash. Here's why-

Today, you can go to Tivo.com and buy an SA Tivo for $299 and never pay any service fee ever. Or you can Pay Dish $349 for their DVR box, plus $5/month for DVR "access fees".

Which number is bigger? You do the math.

When you are done scratching your head over that one, check out the prices of tivos with lifetime subs on Ebay. That's right- three year old Tivo boxes with lifetime subs go for $250 or so. You think your resale will be that high on a Carrier provided box? Think again. Most carrier boxes get tossed.

Tivo has the added option that you don't have to pay $299 up front if you don't want. You can effectively rent the thing for $12.95 and so you can jump ship anytime you want. For many leary of fads, this is appealing, but they don't jump.

As for HD? Go visit your local store. That wall that was once filled with HDTV flat panels is now filled with EDTVs at a fraction the price. HD is great for sports and videophiles. Most people simply don't care and often don't even notice if one speaker of a stereo is unplugged.

That's reality.

So what do people really ask for- they want to archive their shows permanently. So does Direct have any intention of providing TTG or a DVD burner DVR? You bet they don't. To my knowlege, not a single carrier does offer such a box. How much you want to bet they put macrovision and color striping in to keep you from burning with an external DVD recorder.

As far as I am concerned, the carriers still have a hand to play, but as hardware encoder chips come down, they will seee what little advantage they now have slip away. Whether the big winner is Tivo, Apple's, Microsoft's or Sony's DVR box is anyone's guess. But the days of the carriers being able to dictate consumer hardware choices will soon be over for good.

 

[Justin Thyme]

Like I was saying, the revenue picture tells a different story.

approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues

Kind of makes you wonder what the Morgan analysts are thinking.

Going with Murdoch owned NDS Group software provides features Tivo users only dream about- like Snapshot. Just imagine being able to take a still frame of anything you see on television and sending the picture to your telephone. And, always keeping the user's interests number one, NDS gives the user the ability to preview the image before demanding payment.

No figures are given, but I'm sure the mobile phone service providers and Murdoch's organization will work out a figure that will not surprize anyone.

Of course, with Tivo with TTG or an MCE for about $900 more you can grab frames to your hearts content and load them directly onto your phone without any permission, software feature, or fee from either your carrier or your cell phone company.