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kenham said:
Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!
Looks like you haven't been around DirecTV/TiVo very long. Do a search here and you'll find that this is not "news". What was the context of the CNBC story? :confused:
 

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I "think" the continued relationship agreement was to cover the time period between now and when no DirecTivo box is still out there active. I don't believe there was any agreement to make new boxes or to continue to sell DirecTivos after the non-Tivo boxes are released.
 

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I would just guess that DirecTV has only worked out a "maintenance" type agreement to keep guide data arriving and maybe fix any major flaws. I seriously doubt they've signed any agreement that will give them access to new software upgrades, features, etc. since they're probably going to be pushing their own boxes pretty hard..
 

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Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.
 

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The revenue stream from Direct needs to be looked at- as has often been said, the raw numbers of users is extremely misleading. Tivo get $1 per unit for direct, $12 for SA. That means in terms of revenue growth, Direct is around 20% of the picture for Tivo. Lots and lots of DirectTivo users have to leave for this to have much real impact.

The Forbes article said this:
The research firm [JP Morgan] said DirecTV could begin to transition its TiVo base to new technology, starting with shipments of the first non-TiVo digital video recorders in August or September. "We believe such a DirecTV D-Day would rattle investor confidence, since DirecTV drives more than 70% of current TiVo subscriber growth,"
Subscriber growth. Not revenue growth. And notte the soft terminology that mirrors Direct's PR stance on the subject- They are saying transition- not positiioning it as some sort of agressive switchover plan, such as big giveaways, making DirecTivo users switch over, plans to remove turn off service to Tivo units as part of the switchover etc.

IMHO, I think DirecTV may get a "New Coke" reaction from their subscribers, and will take a second look at the role of Tivo after observing advertising revenues that Comcast gets from a Tivo partnership.

We'll see. So far we haven't seen good Ipod or Mac clones even though Apple has been around for 2 decades. Good UI seems elusive for most companies. I don't know why that is. Good luck to them- if it really does everything that the Tivo does (as jmoak's pcmag article quoted DirecTv as boasting), then I'm for it. I am extremely skeptical they will do TTG or HME, but hey if they do, that would be cool.
 

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DirecTV won't need to offer deals to get people to switch from Tivo DVR's to their own. This path would cost more than the return. But keep in mind the normal yearly subscriber churn. Old customers never return their old units back to DTV. They go in the trash or the garage. New customers will always get non-Tivo units. Warranty replacements will all be non-Tivo.

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.
 

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HiDefGator said:
Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.
I wonder how much longer you will be able to get a new directivo after the launch of the directpvr. This may up the value of "used" units kicking around on ebay. I know I will have a couple in the closet for "spares" until I find something better, or am forced to switch.
 

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yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..
 

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HiDefGator said:
I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.
What's the option? Buying an SA Tivo.

Do you think that all DVRs from Direct will be free? They aren't for Dish. I am on Dish, and they have had a DVR for a while now. Dish wants me to give them $300 for theirs. Sure a new customer to Direct, like Dish may get a "free" one. The second one will likely be $300 though.

So compare that to a street price of around $100 for a tivo that can be upgraded to HD storage far in excess of anything Direct will ever offer.

So they may take the free one, then get a Tivo SA for the bedroom. Now they see the difference. Then they have a perspective on the Tivo advantage.
 

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But the SA Tivo can't do HD. And worse it costs $12.95 a month per box. I know I'm cheap but there is no way I'm paying $12.95 a month per box for DVR functionality after I have to pay for the box itself too. Especially if DTV will subsidize the cost of a similar box and offer a fee that covers all of them.

I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.
 

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Of course they are droping them. They used TIVO to build up their base with the intention of later after picking their brains to start their own in-house device. Really funny cause they now pay TIVO $1 a subscription and charge us $4.99 each. But you can bet they will start charging $5.99 or a short time at $4.99 and then soon at the dollar increase for their OWN in-house device. Plus they will probably add on more things it will do for more money.
TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run. So MR. MURDOCK better start emptying your vast pockets.
 

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Rax said:
Funny how people are naive enough to think DirecTV will tank without the floundering TiVo company.
All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.
 

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Hodaka said:
yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..
Same here :up:
 

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patonenow said:
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TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run.
I agree on your all statement but this one , i think DIRECTV could have gotten were they are now with or with-out TIVO
 

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patonenow said:
All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.
LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million

do you want to restate YOUR statement? :rolleyes: :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DirecTV

http://www.sbca.com/index.asp

DISH, ALPHASTAR, PRIMESTAR, VOOM, has never had the same secuess as DIRECTV, same with the cable corps.
 
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