[Hodaka]

this may be somewhere else on the forums, but I'm usually only here..

http://www.impactlab.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=7024&mode=&order=0&thold=0

U.S. household use of Tivo and Tivo-like devices in 2005:
• 3%

Projected U.S. household use of Tivo and Tivo-like devices in 2010:
• 70%

Percent of TV ads skipped by users of Tivo and Tivo-like devices:
• 79%

I don't know what data any of this is based on...

 

[ebonovic]

I believe the 3%...

But don't believe the 70% by 2010... that is WAY too high...

As for 79% skipping...... they way it is worded, is how many ads you actually skip... not the number of people that skip ANY ads (which would probably be 99%)

 

[morgantown]

I'd say that 70% is probably optimistic, even including all other DVR's. But interesting nonetheless...

 

[Hodaka]

I'm just guessing here, but maybe the 70% is with an expectation that DVR functionality will be part of the default standard cable package for most providers by 2010?

 

[morgantown]

I'm just guessing here, but maybe the 70% is with an expectation that DVR functionality will be part of the default standard cable package for most providers by 2010?

Yea, that does make sense. I can see DVR's becoming to cable something like call waiting is to phone service. It was not all that many years ago that caller ID or call waiting was viewed as a type of add on "luxury" option. Perhaps 2010 may be optimistic, to a degree.

But once you have your DVR experience, it is hard to go back.

 

[Pauli]

I believe the 3%...

But don't believe the 70% by 2010... that is WAY too high...

As for 79% skipping...... they way it is worded, is how many ads you actually skip... not the number of people that skip ANY ads (which would probably be 99%)

Well, my 80-ish parents just recently got a DVR with their cable setup, maybe not WAY too high...

 

[Lee L]

There are still tons of people who just watch the big 3 networks and don;t een use a cable box. I can't see 70% penetration in less than 5 years.

 

[Diana Collins]

There are still tons of people who just watch the big 3 networks and don;t een use a cable box. I can't see 70% penetration in less than 5 years.

They will no longer be doing that after 2009. They will need a cable box to get ANY cable once analog broadcasting ceases.

 

[Lee L]

Well, I'm not sure how fast cable systems will totally get rid of the old analog tiers, I am pretty sure most systems still let you hook a cable to the wall and get channels 3-16 or something with no box at all. I think lots of people with cable boxes do this for second and third TV's. (now, the extent of it I am not sure as only one friend I know does this and I have had Satellite since 1998 or so) Why wouldn't the cableco's just hook up a DTV box and modulate it onto the channels that are currently working? Of course, they could use that as a good reason to drop the analog tier as well.

Also, since our esteemed legislators saw fit to subsidize the transition, lots of people might be getting free (who knows how it will actually work out) boxes that allow them to receive DTV OTA after the cutoff).

At any rate, what I am getting at is that there are lots of people who really do not even realize what is out there oputside of what they are used to and it will take more than 4 or 5 years for them to want to use a DVR.

 

[tbeckner]

But once you have your DVR experience, it is hard to go back.

Hard to go back? I would say almost IMPOSSIBLE, the withdrawls would be almost like a drug withdrawal. I believe that quiting smoking would be easier and quiting DVR usage (I quit 20 years ago), but then again I almost never watch live TV and time and day shift everything. In fact, because of Season Passes, I don't even thing about watching TV until I have a moment or two. In other words, watching TV has become something that really is no longer scheduled. The TiVo schedules it completely.

 

[Diana Collins]

The point is that in 2009 there will be no analog broadcasts. The cable operators are required to pass through the digital signal. Therefore, there will be no more "analog" tier. To use an analog TV (and there will still be MILLIONS of them in use for the next 15 years) you will be REQUIRED to use a STB. Even with a digital TV, unless CableCard succeeds, you'll need a STB. So, if they start making those STBs all DVRs, then the 70% number is not unreasonable. I agree it is optimistic, but far from improbable.

 

[tbeckner]

They will no longer be doing that after 2009. They will need a cable box to get ANY cable once analog broadcasting ceases.

Everyone OTA customer will need a digital converter box by 2009. There still are a lot of people who watch OTA VHF and UHF channels in the East, South, and some Rural/Urban areas. If I remember right there are only 68 million cable company customers and about 24 million satellite customers (split between DirecTV and Dish), so there still are a lot of OTA viewers with antennas. In fact, a lot of DirecTV HD customers do OTA HD.

By the way, it is a misconception that cable viewers will need to go digital by 2009. The 2009 law only affects OTA broadcasts, but it would make sense that the cable companies not convert the digital signals back to analog to send over their cable system, but it is not required. You could still have cable companies with analog feeds after 2009.

Again the 2009 law only affects OTA broadcasts, not cable transmissions.

 

[tbeckner]

The point is that in 2009 there will be no analog broadcasts. The cable operators are required to pass through the digital signal. Therefore, there will be no more "analog" tier. To use an analog TV (and there will still be MILLIONS of them in use for the next 15 years) you will be REQUIRED to use a STB. Even with a digital TV, unless CableCard succeeds, you'll need a STB. So, if they start making those STBs all DVRs, then the 70% number is not unreasonable. I agree it is optimistic, but far from improbable.

It's just not the cable operators, but also all of the OTA broadcasters, who will have to broadcast digital instead of analog. In todays' world there are still more OTA veiwers than there are cable and satellite viewers, and that is hard to believe but it is true. Especially if you have lived with cable like I have since the 1960's and satellite since 1994.

 

[morgantown]

Hard to go back? I would say almost IMPOSSIBLE, the withdrawls would be almost like a drug withdrawal. I believe that quiting smoking would be easier and quiting DVR usage (I quit 20 years ago), but then again I almost never watch live TV and time and day shift everything. In fact, because of Season Passes, I don't even thing about watching TV until I have a moment or two. In other words, watching TV has become something that really is no longer scheduled. The TiVo schedules it completely.

Yea, I'm not going back to watching live TV (neither is the wife) in any foreseeable future. As a matter of fact if I did not have a DVR I don't think I would watch much, other than the prescribed sports (read NFLST). Too darn hard to remember to hit "pause" on life to sit down to watch. FF through the commercials is a much more efficient use of time!

But still, 70% by 2010 does seem rosey. On the other hand 70% by 2015 woud seem low, and yes I do consider myself an optimist.

Nice one comparing quitting smoking as easier than giving up a DVR.

 

[Diana Collins]

It's just not the cable operators, but also all of the OTA broadcasters, who will have to broadcast digital instead of analog. In todays' world there are still more OTA veiwers than there are cable and satellite viewers, and that is hard to believe but it is true...

The point still remains that by 2010 nearly every TV in America will be attached to some kind of external reception device, up from the roughly 60% so equipped today. Many, if not most, of those existing STBs will also be replaced, mostly in the 2008/2009 timeframe. To think that most of them will be some kind of DVR is not a stretch.

 

[tbeckner]

The point still remains that by 2010 nearly every TV in America will be attached to some kind of external reception device, up from the roughly 60% so equipped today. Many, if not most, of those existing STBs will also be replaced, mostly in the 2008/2009 timeframe. To think that most of them will be some kind of DVR is not a stretch.

I agree, in fact just this evening I compared GOING WITHOUT A DVR to be comparable to going through a DRUG WITHDRAWL and said that I thought that quiting smoking would be easier (I quit smoking 20 years ago), than quiting DVR usage.

I have used a DVR almost six years now and my TV viewing has changed completely. I hardy ever watch Live TV, and time and day shift everything, and in fact many times I have gone two weeks without watching anything at all. I use 30 second skip about 98+% of the time and FF less than 2% of the time. About seven months ago, this last summer, I hacked all of my HDVR2s and have started using MRV heavily and believe I would have a hard time not using a DVR without it.

I am afraid, that the DVR has changed MY LIFE and has allowed me to have A LIFE, and life without a DVR for TV viewing would be hard to handle.

 

[Mark W]

3% does sound too low. I thought it would be closer to 10%. It seems that the only way that it would get to 70% by 2010 is that a DVR would become the basic box for the cable and satellite companies. I don't think it would get to even 50% by then if people had to ask for them.

 

[JWThiers]

The point still remains that by 2010 nearly every TV in America will be attached to some kind of external reception device, up from the roughly 60% so equipped today. Many, if not most, of those existing STBs will also be replaced, mostly in the 2008/2009 timeframe. To think that most of them will be some kind of DVR is not a stretch.

With new TV's having the requirement to have a digital tuner (Its being phased in I forget the time frames, but larger TV having them now) I'm not sure that STB will be that common of OTA. Why buy a $200 STB when you can get a new TV for $400 with the digital tuner included?

 

[newsposter]

The TiVo schedules it completely.

DITTO! When i'm at family's house and they say 'what's on tonight?" i usually have no clue because tivo does it all. Ok I do know the day but not always the time..especially with 3 L/O series to watch.

 

[newsposter]

The point still remains that by 2010 nearly every TV in America will be attached to some kind of external reception device,

And I think it stinks they they can't make them ALL 2 way tv ratings boxes so they know for 100% certainty what channels we are tuned to instead of letting 1000 people decide what we watch

I'll get this darn ratings system changed yet!