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· O2->CO2 Converter
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Stanley Rohner said:
How would you know what the margin is on this box ?

It's kinda funny when someone that wasn't involved in designing it says something like this.
Since there are pictures published of all the internals at this point, it isn't hard for someone that wasn't involved with the THD but knows what they are talking about to make a pretty decent estimate of what the BOM is for the THD. Combine this with the fact that from looking at the engineering and Tivo's statements that cost was key for this box and it isn't a huge leap to say that the margin is pretty small on this box.

It's kinda funny when people like you run around the forums making posts insinuating that others don't know what they are talking about and that nobody is going to buy this box because it's cheaper without offering anything in the way of substance to the discussion.
 

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mikesown said:
I won't buy until it's free(or very cheap;<50$). I'm paying TiVO $13 a month for service. If I sign a 2(or 3) year contract with them, I see no reason why I can't get a free DVR.
Well, for one, Tivo has to make a profit. Not only are you paying for the Tivo manufacturing costs, you also have to pay for the r&d behind that box. And either monthly fees or box cost must help pay for continuing development.
 

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vstone said:
Well, for one, Tivo has to make a profit. Not only are you paying for the Tivo manufacturing costs, you also have to pay for the r&d behind that box. And either monthly fees or box cost must help pay for continuing development.
I'm sure we will see an actual tear down cost estimate on the box fairly soon and I expect it will come in somewhere around the $200-$225 range. Since they probably sell to distributors for around $240-$250 they are probably making a small profit or breaking even.

Companies don't typically pad the cost of a retail product with the costs to develop the product or do continued work on it and other products, that is a myth as these costs are simply fixed company overhead that they carry from year to year.

Tivo has salaried engineers who do this work, if on the other hand they contracted this out every so often as one time fees then maybe you'd have a point.

The real room for Tivo to do price reductions is in their subscription fees. As it is now, many people don't want to sign a multi-year contract and end up looking at the $16.95 a month (plus box cost) and compare that to the $10 a month they pay their cable provider and simply won't make the leap.

If Tivo wants larger adoption they need to reduce their subscription costs.
 

· I can't explain
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jmpage2 said:
I'm sure we will see an actual tear down cost estimate on the box fairly soon and I expect it will come in somewhere around the $200-$225 range. Since they probably sell to distributors for around $240-$250 they are probably making a small profit or breaking even.
The S3 was not menat to sell in volume and the TiVo HD is. I expect some nervous execs are checking daily sales figures this week :)
Companies don't typically pad the cost of a retail product with the costs to develop the product or do continued work on it and other products, that is a myth as these costs are simply fixed company overhead that they carry from year to year.
yes but it does drive what kind of margin they will accept when pricing a new product and deciding if they will continue development on such.

as it stands any rebate or lifetime transfer on the TiVo HD will be a marketing cost for TiVo. I am still holding out fro a lifetime transfer offer though :)
 

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ZeoTiVo said:
The S3 was not menat to sell in volume and the TiVo HD is. I expect some nervous execs are checking daily sales figures this week :)

yes but it does drive what kind of margin they will accept when pricing a new product and deciding if they will continue development on such.

as it stands any rebate or lifetime transfer on the TiVo HD will be a marketing cost for TiVo. I am still holding out fro a lifetime transfer offer though :)
If I were Tivo I would be a lot less worried about lifetime transfers and a lot more concerned about win backs and new Tivo subscribers.
 

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If Tivo is smart, they'll do this:

1. Make the Tivo HD free with a 2 year contract
2. Reduce the subscription price to 10$ and make it the same for everyone(no multiple tivo discounts)
3. Fire unnecessary employees to make a profit(trim down the company)

The sad fact is that Tivo has never made a profit. Clearly something is going wrong. My opinion: It's the cableco dvr users that are causing Tivo the big losses. In order to compete with them, Tivo has to price their stuff accordingly. They have a great product, but at a high price. Basically, what Tivo has is:
- A $300 box which you sign a 1 year contract for at $16 a month
compared to the cable company which has:
- A free box with a 1 year contract at $10 a month
There's simply no comparison. If I had cable(I have a DirecTivo now), I would go for the cableco dvr, despite the fact that the Tivo is better, simply because of the enormous price difference. I think that moreover, now that the Tivo software is tweaked and more or less done, Tivo can afford to let go of a few people in the company to help it make a profit. I HOPE Tivo does, but the future looks grim unless Tivo makes some serious changes.
 

· O2->CO2 Converter
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rainwater said:
Clearly, you don't know anything so I will ignore the rest of your post.
Seriously - that may be the dumbest post that I've read on here in a while, and that's a pretty high "achievement". Nearly every statement was factually incorrect.
 

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mikesown said:
If Tivo is smart, they'll do this:

1. Make the Tivo HD free with a 2 year contract
2. Reduce the subscription price to 10$ and make it the same for everyone(no multiple tivo discounts)
3. Fire unnecessary employees to make a profit(trim down the company)

The sad fact is that Tivo has never made a profit. Clearly something is going wrong. My opinion: It's the cableco dvr users that are causing Tivo the big losses. In order to compete with them, Tivo has to price their stuff accordingly. They have a great product, but at a high price. Basically, what Tivo has is:
- A $300 box which you sign a 1 year contract for at $16 a month
compared to the cable company which has:
- A free box with a 1 year contract at $10 a month
There's simply no comparison. If I had cable(I have a DirecTivo now), I would go for the cableco dvr, despite the fact that the Tivo is better, simply because of the enormous price difference. I think that moreover, now that the Tivo software is tweaked and more or less done, Tivo can afford to let go of a few people in the company to help it make a profit. I HOPE Tivo does, but the future looks grim unless Tivo makes some serious changes.
For me TiVos key advantage are the ease of Hard Drive upgrades and MRV (MRV better come with the HD units within the next year). The UI advantage does not make up for the first two. Without the first two advantages i would have the cable cos DVR because its more than a free DVR box, it has an unlimited warranty and free upgrades to the newest DVR the cable co has + other two way features TiVo can't compete with at this time like OD etc.
 

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davezatz said:
So what was in that Digeo Moxi press kit I got just a few weeks ago? ;) The only missing pieces were prices and hard drive sizes, both of which were alluded to in conversation.
did they finish cable labs certification yet? I thought they were kind of quite about that before.
 

· I can't explain
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mikesown said:
If Tivo is smart, they'll do this:

1. Make the Tivo HD free with a 2 year contract
2. Reduce the subscription price to 10$ and make it the same for everyone(no multiple tivo discounts)
3. Fire unnecessary employees to make a profit(trim down the company)

mikesown said:
Making a tivo series3 lite would be easy. Just:
- Eliminate the OTA tuner(most people use cablecards anyway)
- Eliminate analog cable tuner(again, who uses this?)
- Lower the hard drive space

I would not strip a tuner out, as this is becomming a necessity for DVRs as a lot of shows play at the same time. This would yield a perfect DVR which could be subsidized to be very cheap, and maybe even free(with rebates, and commitments).
well with such keen observations as "a lot of shows play at the same time" it looks like you have 1 out of 3 on the design for the TiVo HD. Yet somehow you managed to get even lower score on the business plan.
 

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HDTiVo said:
Funny I just looked back at Zatz 7/3/07 and then the NYT just put out a piece saying...
Context. ;-) You asked about *pricing*, I said there were no details yet - on pricing.

There are many details on the boxes. I've posted about them many times on TiVoLovers.com too - I reported on them from CES in January, and I've picked up more news since then, including what Zatz posted.

There are details out there about the boxes, but they haven't said a lot about pricing, service, etc.
 

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mikesown said:
I would go for the cableco dvr, despite the fact that the Tivo is better, simply because of the enormous price difference.
The "enourmous price difference" isn't what you might think it is, when you actually figure the true cost of a cable DVR rental, especially for those that have to upgrade to a digital package just to get a DVR.

For MANY cable customers, a Tivo HD + Tivo service will be far less expensive than a cable DVR option AND customers will have the real Tivo experience.

What Tivo needs to do is some advertising that shows the true cost of a Tivo box vs. a "free" cable DVR.
 

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jfh3 said:
The "enourmous price difference" isn't what you might think it is, when you actually figure the true cost of a cable DVR rental, especially for those that have to upgrade to a digital package just to get a DVR.

For MANY cable customers, a Tivo HD + Tivo service will be far less expensive than a cable DVR option AND customers will have the real Tivo experience.

What Tivo needs to do is some advertising that shows the true cost of a Tivo box vs. a "free" cable DVR.
Not sure if that would work out as well as you would hope. Even if you say that in addition to the $10 cable PVR you have to shell out a bit more for programming to qualify for the box, I think that's a long cry from saying that you will save enough to pay for a $300 Tivo box in a short amount of time.

Additionally Tivo is $16 a month unless you get a 2 or 3 year contract. No contract is required with a cable PVR to get their $10 a month price.
 

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Can we change the thread title to "How long before some S3 owner snaps and does a drive-by at TiVo HQ?"

I for one am almost perfectly happy with my S3, you know with the rebates I only paid $101 more...which got me the cool remotes, THX, and the stylin' front panel :D

We should have a poll about this...
Happy with the S3/Wished I'd waited/I did wait/Damn your eyes, TiVo!/TiVo? What's wrong with the MotoAtlantic box?
 

· O2->CO2 Converter
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jmpage2 said:
Not sure if that would work out as well as you would hope. Even if you say that in addition to the $10 cable PVR you have to shell out a bit more for programming to qualify for the box, I think that's a long cry from saying that you will save enough to pay for a $300 Tivo box in a short amount of time.

Additionally Tivo is $16 a month unless you get a 2 or 3 year contract. No contract is required with a cable PVR to get their $10 a month price.
Comcast around here has a 20 dollar a month jump from basic to the cheapest digital package, plus $12 per month for the DVR.

So you're paying twice as much for a DVR that (according to Comcast's website) can record 10 hours of HD programming and has a 15 minute buffer for HD.

Half the product for twice the price, with a crappy interface and none of the features of Tivo to boot! Where do I sign up?

Saving 16 dollars a month, you've also paid for the THD in 18 months. Are you going to use a DVR for less than 18 months and then just go back to watching regular TV? Commit to 3 years and that 18 months becomes 15.

The THD is a no brainer for basic cable+OTA for HD if that's what you are interested in, unless you think that you are going to stop watching TV in a year and a half.
 
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