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Will probably depend on initial sales. I suspect we may see a $50-$100 drop and/or rebate for Christmas and a reduced MSRP in 1Q next year (to $199 or $249).

And we'll probably see a bunch of "but I paid $299" complaints here at the same time ... :)
 

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I'm actually hoping this will spur an inventory depletion for S3 units by Tivo. If it gets down to <= $400 range again I will have to seriously consider a 3rd, perhaps without activating service on it for a while.
 

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HDTiVo said:
Two things to look for:

Competing boxes launched in the fall.

Holiday/post Holiday period.
I think TiVo has little margin on this box at all. any price drop would surely be a subsidy which they never ruled out on the TiVo HD of course. I do agree that the current S3 may well drop in price at least on the street
 

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ZeoTiVo said:
I think TiVo has little margin on this box at all. any price drop would surely be a subsidy which they never ruled out on the TiVo HD of course. I do agree that the current S3 may well drop in price at least on the street
But they could sell them at a loss and make it back in the monthly fees like many other items today.

Like save 50 - 100 up front for a 3 year commitment at full monthly rate.
 

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hijammer said:
But they could sell them at a loss and make it back in the monthly fees like many other items today.

Like save 50 - 100 up front for a 3 year commitment at full monthly rate.
Reducing the hardware subsidies was a bad move. You'll either see TiVo reverse this (relative to the product they have), change the entire bundle/commitment strategy, or you'll see TiVo continue to miss Subs and see its SAC out of control.
 

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I wouldn't be surprised if TiVo doesn't offer any discounts on the box until next year. $300 is pretty cheap to start with, and I think they've really cut their margin down to little if anything.

I haven't seen any real competition pending. The only new standalone HD DVRs I've seen coming at the Digeo Moxi boxes - and the figures seen so far would make it more expensive than an S3. It remains to be seen if Digeo can provide any real competition.

There will probably be discounts from online resellers, as there usually are, selling closer to wholesale than brick & mortar stores.
 

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megazone said:
II haven't seen any real competition pending. The only new standalone HD DVRs I've seen coming at the Digeo Moxi boxes - and the figures seen so far would make it more expensive than an S3. It remains to be seen if Digeo can provide any real competition.
How much is Moxi "service?" How many years is the commitment?
 

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pkscout said:
Crimey. The thing isn't even shipping yet and people want it for less....
Oh, it's shipping. There are already reports of folks getting them at bricks and mortars.
 

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HDTiVo said:
How much is Moxi "service?" How many years is the commitment?
They haven't announced any details yet. It may be all up-front - but they were talking about ~$1000 price points at CES 2007. It remains to be seen what they actually price things at, and how they handle the features. They were also planning to charge for various features a la carte. So you'd buy the box, but might have to pay more to enable different things - like the old HMO system.

With the TiVo HD at $300, they will need much lower pricing. Even with TiVo's service.
 

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ZeoTiVo said:
I think TiVo has little margin on this box at all. any price drop would surely be a subsidy which they never ruled out on the TiVo HD of course. I do agree that the current S3 may well drop in price at least on the street
How would you know what the margin is on this box ?

It's kinda funny when someone that wasn't involved in designing it says something like this.
 

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megazone said:
They haven't announced any details yet.
Funny I just looked back at Zatz 7/3/07 and then the NYT just put out a piece saying
Digeo, which already supplies set-top boxes to cable companies that in turn lease them to subscribers, says it plans to sell a new model in stores this fall. Digeo’s machine, the Moxi Multi-Room HD DMR, not only will include a TiVo-like DVR but also will let owners add more hard disk storage to expand the number of shows owners can record and store. Moxi owners will also be able to use the box to store music and pictures and watch recordings on TVs in other rooms. Prices for the CableCard-ready box have not yet been announced.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/26/technology/circuits/26basics.html?em&ex=1185681600&en=8d97b5f04e5b79cf&ei=5087%0A

Then I found that Moxi also plans an OCAP software upgrade for cable boxes similar to what TiVo is doing for Comcast/Cox.

OCAP Solutions Add More Platform Choices
Moxi for OCAP is a software-based version of the Moxi user interface optimized to run on lower-end set-top boxes and other hardware using the cable-industry standard OCAP middleware platform. Compatible with multiple hardware platforms, Moxi for OCAP provides cable operators increased flexibility in bringing the Moxi user experience to their customers as they strive to effectively compete with IPTV and satellite service providers to acquire and retain customers. The HD-capable Moxi for OCAP software integrates advanced services such as interactive content applications, video-on-demand and pay-per-view and can be easily deployed through normal in-line software updates, reducing the need for customer support and on-site visits by technicians. Three versions of Moxi for OCAP solutions will be available: Moxi EPG only; Moxi EPG with DVR support; and the complete Moxi experience including DVR, media center applications and services.

"Moxi for OCAP continues Digeo’s long track record of innovation, this will make their intuitive user interface navigation tool as well as their next generation interactive services available on a variety of OCAP platforms we are currently deploying," said Patrick Knorr, General Manager, Sunflower Broadband. "Easy navigation of content becomes more important every day and we are excited about the prospect of extending the Moxi experience to a wider base of Sunflower customers. This is a great step in the right direction."

Digeo expects the Moxi HD DVR to be available in the fourth quarter of 2007. The first version of Moxi for OCAP (EPG only) will be available in the fourth quarter of 2007 with the DVR and complete Moxi experience versions following in waves in early 2008.
http://www.digeo.com/press_pressrelease.aspx?id=5

Then Multichannel News also writes regarding the cable hardware:

With the introduction of its next HD digital-video recorder, Digeo will drop the box’s price to cable operators by one-third compared with previous devices.

CEO Mike Fidler declined to disclose pricing details but said Digeo is now bringing itself in line with pricing from other set-top-box providers

The DVR will also provide Web-based scheduling, including the ability to identify whether a recording conflicts with an existing one and let the user know “in near real-time” over the Internet, president and chief operating officer Greg Gudorf said, adding, “It’s remote scheduling done right.”
http://www.digeo.com/press_newsstory.aspx?id=4

So there does not seem to be a lot of info to find out there right now about the original question.
 
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