Tivo to separate into two companies

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by alarson83, May 9, 2019.

  1. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Here's a way to improve on Prime Channels: don't make customers first subscribe to a $119/yr service (Amazon Prime) in order to add subscriptions for HBO, Showtime, etc. But, of course, for Amazon, removing that prerequisite mostly defeats the purpose of Prime Channels.

    Meanwhile, Apple TV Channels don't require you to have any prerequisite subscription.

    Everything that Amazon does is about funneling consumers into Prime subscriptions and locking them into their retail ecosystem as much as possible. If Amazon continues growing as they have been doing, there will eventually be a reckoning. It won't just be politicians like Warren calling for their break-up. It'll become a mainstream opinion.
     
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  2. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    They don't just need a couple apps any more. Beyond the three you listed, they'll need Hulu, Disney+, HBO+, and the upcoming one from NBCU. At least. Look at X1, which is adding free AVOD apps like Tubi. Comcast has stated that they want X1 to support a huge number of apps, essentially rivaling Roku. This is why I see X1 as the only MSO-native platform that will successfully transition into the hybrid OTT/MVPD world.

    These things are already happening now. It'll be a long-term trend and is by no means complete yet but it's happening.
     
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  3. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    But Amazon Prime is pretty much a given at this point anyway, so Prime Video and all of that are basically just freebies.
     
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  4. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    An MSO probably isn't going to have HBO+, depending on what that ends up being. Or there will be some equivalent offered directly through the MSO and their VOD system. Hulu has a few originals, but isn't a great fit otherwise for an MSO.

    I have to wonder if Comcast will get much traction beyond Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube. Maybe they will, but I just can't imagine that marketing to unsophisticated users is going to drive a lot of traffic to niche content.

    The pay TV market isn't gone... yet. It still had at least a few more years of inertia before it really implodes. There are several barriers that the industry has put up that are slowing down it's demise, so it really depends on when the Comcast of the world decide that water flows downhill, and decide to open up the dam and let it all go.
     
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  5. wizwor

    wizwor Guest

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    You are 100% correct, but Apple is not a charity.
     
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  6. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    AT&T has stated that MVPDs will be an important distribution channel for the upcoming SVOD. But, yes, all of the content may just get absorbed into VOD platforms the way that existing HBO content now does (meaning that the cable box won't specifically need the new HBO+ app).

    Comcast is going to add Hulu to X1 soon, it was just announced. I can certainly see why an MSO might not want a full-fledged Hulu app with live TV (i.e. vMVPD) features but the on-demand library is important. Hulu is now growing faster in the US than Netflix and with the full power of Disney behind it, I don't see that stopping. They're going to aggressively invest in more Hulu originals, with many of them produced by the FX team. That's more stuff that will be exclusive to the Hulu app. In a couple years, Hulu will be table stakes for a decent cable STB, just as Netflix is now. Same will be true of Disney+.

    Comcast wants to have top 100 connected TV apps on X1

    You're conflating two things. You're right that the pay TV (MVPD) market isn't gone yet. In fact, I think it's going to easily outlast your predictions due to consumer inertia, the amount of live sports that remains exclusive to linear cable channels, the packaging of local plus national content on the broadcast network affiliates, and the fact that high-demand live events (e.g. sports) don't scale well through purely OTT unicast streams (e.g. ESPN+ or YouTube TV), meaning that industry forces may work to keep them primarily distributed through MSO's own multicast-delivered first-party video subscriptions.

    But what I am saying is that MVPDs are merging their platforms with the OTT world of apps (because so much content and viewing is shifting there) and that cablecos are either shifting to managed IPTV and/or to packaging their service as OTT apps and/or to simply reselling third-party vMVPDs (e.g. Verizon and YouTube TV). And all of those developments are playing into decisions to forego reinventing their own wheel with a new next-gen STB that they develop in house (too expensive, takes too long, too little future payoff) and instead just rely on hardware and software platforms that already exist, maybe with some UI customization. And who operates those platforms? Comcast, Google, Apple, Roku and Amazon.
     
  7. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    If you subscribe to Amazon Prime. I don't shop from them enough to justify the year-round price.
     
  8. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Ha, no Apple is by no means a charity. But, for now anyway, they're OK with just taking a rumored 30% of the subscription price for Apple TV Channels, with that business being its own stand-along profit center rather than an extension of something much larger like Amazon Prime.

    But it won't surprise if at some point we see Apple offer an "Apple Prime" subscription that delivers a suite of services including, perhaps, a trade in every year for the latest iPhone, plus Apple Music, AppleCare, iCloud, Apple News+ and AppleTV+. Easily financed on your AppleCard!
     
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  9. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    If Hulu starts to make more originals, then it starts to make more sense. I just have to wonder if offering all of this stuff will cause more cord cutting, not less, as people see what's out there on streaming apps, and realize that they don't need Comcast anymore. Of course, the opposite is a risk too if they didn't have apps on X1, and just ended up using Roku all the time, it would be easy to forget about the Comcast box and easier to cut the cord. I still wonder how much traction those apps will actually get with a relatively unsophisticated and older user base.

    I don't think live TV is going away entirely, but I think that the bundles as we know them today are on their deathbed. They have a few years of inertia left, but another 10 million subscribers down, the existing business model of bloated messes of packages just doesn't work. A lot of channels have to disappear at some point, as they have relatively fixed costs and variable revenue. Great in a up market, bad in a down market.

    Sure, but I'm not sure that's all the relevant given the pace of cord cutting, as that business is dying. The only reason another 10 million people haven't cut the cord is Comcast and a few others are using aggressive bundling tactics to prop up their media businesses and keep subscriber numbers up even though those video subscribers are at best marginally profitable compared to to monetizing fewer customers. AT&T seems to have finally realized this, and is getting rid of a lot of their really good teaser deals and retention offers and just letting low-ARPU customers walk.

    I don't order from them that often, but they have enough items that are either impossible to find locally, or you'd chew up a lot of gas getting them that it's pretty much indispensable at this point. Therefore, I don't count the cost of Amazon Prime when talking about the video offering. If you want to talk about a business model though, it's genius, as they have made it much stickier by making it many things, not just free shipping.
     
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  10. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    Apple seems to be utterly oblivious to bundling. Their whole services area is a branding mess with a bunch of different subscriptions. They absolutely need a bundle to increase stickiness, maybe with 2 or 3 tiers to support one with the latest iPhone, and one for people who purchase their iPhone or finance it through a carrier.
     
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  11. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I generally agree. But Apple is increasingly signaling a shift from hardware to services as the company's future, so I think they'll smarten up pretty quickly on that front.
     
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  12. TKnight206

    TKnight206 Active Member

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    Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy (a cartoon on Disney XD) has Guardians of the Glades as the image for the show. So, yeah, I think you're right about the automated software.

    I feel like I'm doing their work for them by reporting these mistakes. This makes me miss Gracenote.
     
  13. mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    At some point the Cable companies might just slim down to say 100 or so channels and start selling "Pick your own 20-40 channels" bundles and head-on compete with YTTV, DTV Now, etc. via IPTV streaming. Their lock on broadband would give them an advantage with those kinds of bundles.
     
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  14. foghorn2

    foghorn2 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, and cant wait for that to happen, then let all this streaming crap forced to watch commercials and pay for it die off!
     
  15. wizwor

    wizwor Guest

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    Until 5G. It's been a decade since Verizon installed fiber in my home. The guy who did the install said Verizon planned to sell off its broadband infrastructure and focus on wireless. Still waiting, but...
    I think the future will be very complex with turn key and roll your options.
     
  16. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    I think people would still rather have more options than not. I'm sure some sort of bundle would get some traction, but people are distrustful of the MSOs and generally hate them, so they'll shop around if they can.

    Huh? What "streaming crap"?
     
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  17. aaronwt

    aaronwt UHD Addict

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    I stream over 95% of my content now. I don't have any forced commercials except for a handful of shows on the hulu ad-free plan. Which force a 15 second commercial prior to the show.(the vast majority have no commercials) Otherwise all the streaming services I use for broadcast content either don't have commercials or allow me to scan past them in a few seconds..
     
  18. smark

    smark Well-Known Member

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    I have a feeling that this will go away except for an extra charge like Hulu. Then as you add the streaming services up, the pricing will become an issue to watch ad free.
     
  19. Diana Collins

    Diana Collins Well-Known Member TCF Club

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    Well...to use Apple TV Channels you have to have paid Apple for an AppleTV unit. I would submit that once you calculate the price of an AppleTV (~ $129) versus the price of a Roku (~ $49), the $119 seems a lot less onerous, plus it gets you free 2 day shipping on most anything you do buy on Amazon plus all the Amazon Prime content.
     
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  20. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, Apple TVs aren't cheap, but then you pay a premium if you want a UI that isn't full of ads (hello Roku and Fire TV).

    That said, you won't actually have to have an Apple TV box to use the new Apple TV app and access Apple TV Channels subscriptions inside of it. Apple has already brought the app to Samsung smart TVs and in the coming months it will debut on the Roku, Fire TV, LG webOS, and Sony Android TV platforms too. Now, my guess is that if you want to initiate a subscription to Apple TV Channels, then you'll need to do that inside the Apple TV app on an actual Apple device or maybe inside a web browser on the Apple site. But then once you're subscribed, you'll be able to stream those Apple TV Channels inside the Apple TV app on any device. (The same holds true today for subscribing to and viewing Prime Video Channels inside the Prime Video app. Apple is not at all creating a new model here, they're just copying what Amazon has already done, except in Apple's case you don't need a base-level prerequisite subscription to subscribe to Channels.)
     

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