Tivo to separate into two companies

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Amazon, Apple and Google have VERY deep pockets and can pretty much do whatever they decide to do. Plus they aren't afraid to go for it.

 

Roku, Fire Stick and Chromecast are almost as cheap as dirt. $25-$45 retail so it's reaching the point of razors. Give away the streamer and charge for the content.
It might matter to that TiVo guy if TiVo goes under and that box gets hit by a power surge or something that takes it out. They don't last forever.

 

I meant me ;-) With kids leaving and wife gone, five Roamios ought to last as long as I need.

The thing with the razor blade analogy is that one of the top players doesn't sell content (per se). If Roku were still a private company, I would have suggested Walmart could be a buyer. Now, I think they simply fade away.

 

I think Roku has established way too big an installed user base to just fade away. If their numbers cool off a little, then so will the stock price, and I could definitely see Walmart swooping in to buy it. Walmart has a history of scooping up tech/net companies (e.g. Vudu, Jet.com) to gain an instant presence there. Walmart, of course, owns Vudu and they're going to soon debut a small slate of their own original content. Vudu is morphing from being mainly TVOD (rentals & sales) to also being AVOD (ad-supported free content). The ads on the upcoming original series will be tied to Walmart's online shopping cart, in fact. And of course Roku is mainly about selling ads. Meanwhile, why wouldn't Walmart want their own answer to the Fire TV Stick? It all makes a ton of sense for Walmart to own Roku, assuming they could acquire it at the right price.

As for Google's Android TV, I don't know if it ever breaks out in terms of retail sales (e.g. Nvidia Shield TV, Mi Box) and reaches an installed user base close to Apple TV. But where it is succeeding is as a near-turnkey platform for MVPD-provided boxes. We're seeing more and more operators around the world offer their customers inexpensive Android TV boxes. They can go to market with them in just a couple months if the don't customize them (other than maybe slapping their logo on the home screen) or they can take a bit longer to customize the UI, essentially integrating their app into the home screen. This is what TiVo is doing with their Next-Gen Platform for IPTV operators. It's just Google Android TV with a TiVo-customized home screen. AT&T is adopting Android TV with a custom UI for their next-gen platform that will (if all goes according to plan) gradually replace their satellite and Uverse TV services.

 

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As long as MSOs want to re-invent the wheel, they will re-invent the wheel. It's too hard to get another consumer streaming platform out there with support for hundreds of apps, but when they only need a couple of key apps like Netflix, Amazon Prime, YouTube, and maybe 1 or 2 other ones, and they have a decent number of semi-captive customers, they will keep at it.

Plus, these MSOs still move at a fairly glacial speed, so I think that the pay TV market will be mostly gone by the time that they seriously look at abandoning their own platforms. At that point, maybe they just become apps on Roku, Apple TV, FireTV, and Android TV. Or maybe they all converge on X1 and Android-based platforms in a purely IPTV world with super cheap hardware.

Why would Roku fade away? That makes no sense. They have the biggest marketshare of them all (except Chromecast which is almost it's own category), and the most apps. They provide the OS to a lot of TVs and have a TON of boxes out there. Roku isn't going anywhere. Neither are Apple, Amazon, or Google (in one form or another).

I don't see a huge growth market in the free ad-supported content. I think they could grind out some profits from it, it seems like a bunch of low-quality junk that's free just isn't even going to be terribly profitable unless they've got something more than just ads, like an upsell.

That I could see. Roku would fit well with the Wal-Mart brand, the only awkward part would be putting Wal-Mart devices in other stores like Best Buy and Target, which Roku needs to reach as wide an audience as possible.

 

It's the razor blade paradigm. Amazon is selling their 4k sticks for $30-35. Roku cannot make money competing on price. Amazon makes their money on Prime and associated sales. Amazon just released an easy to own and use OTA DVR which integrates with cable content like Philo and Vue. If you looked at the charts I posted earlier, you can see Amazon is catching up to Roku on installed base. Given Roku's early entry and dominance, it's clear Amazon is selling more streamers than Roku at this time.

 

Nobody sizable enough to do much.

Great post. Overwhelming and depressing.

So is there any room for niche players in this ecosystem? It's probably too late for Tivo (for many reasons, the least in which being their IP will remain with Rovi/IP company) but I do wonder if a Silicon Dust or someone like them could capture a bigger slice of that leading-edge niche as competitors like Tivo exit?

I know I know...wishful thinking.

 

I have supported a number of 'niche players' and I am not sure they will be missed. DTVPal, Simple TV, DVR+, and TiVo took a lot of my money and still failed. This new model which features standardized platforms [reluctantly] supporting lots of apps is probably better for the consumer. (I paid less for a Recast and five Sticks than it would cost for an All-In OTA Bolt.) Call it the Keurig model. Buy a coffee maker and choose from a wide variety of compatible k-cups.

It's clear Amazon will be one of the winners. I just bought a Recast and five 4k Sticks. Not really good for Amazon. I paid $230 for the DVR and $30 each for the sticks, but not really what they were hoping. I subscribed to Prime. Not really good for Amazon since I am only paying the student price of $50/year ($4/month) after six months free. I could drop Prime and get along with an ISP and my Amazon hardware. Or, I might add Philo or Vue (which likely pay tribute to the king) and I might add a couple Prime Channels which will keep me in the Prime club (now $10 a month since my kid is HOPEFULLY out of college). I'll strongly lean towards Amazon in my purchasing decisions due to the benefits of Prime.

There will be Ambianos. Maybe Walmart + Vudu + Roku or Walmart + Vudu + Apple TV. Maybe some Chinese company that builds a PSIP box (which I will need at least one of). There will be enough barbarians at the gates to keep Amazon honest. There's not much of a moat around the Amazon ecosystem, so they have to compete on price, mostly, even if there are not many competitors. Between you and me, we overpay for the niche products out of fear of being chained to a world run by someone like Jeff Bezos. The fear is probably unsubstantiated unless that world is run by Tim Cook.

We are simply moving from the age of premium providers to an era in which entertainment is a commodity -- where hardware is cheap and software is plentiful. Buy some hardware, add some services, and stir -- a la carte entertainment! Enjoy it.

 

Recent Fire TV sales are ahead of ROKU, at a thin margin. But that is no indication of ROKU going to "fade away." Roku isn't trying to make money competing on price, because the bulk of their revenue comes from advertising and licensing deals.

And Amazon's DVR isn't and wasn't introduced to be a game-changer (for obvious reasons). The platform fulfills a current need, but for a segment of the market. It's not where the industry is heading, and it won't make or break the future of either brand.

Right. There's virtually nothing to indicate otherwise.

 

Keep the faith, brutha.

 

Oh. Okay. I'm just here drinking Kool-Aid and crossing my eyes, while to rational thinking-people, Roku is clearly doomed. Got it.

 

Their installed base includes the five Rokus I just recycled. Had not been used for five years. It includes three TCL Roku TVs I bought. None of these televisions has ever run a Roku app. I have looked at the Roku Channel, but don't watch it.

I just think the MVPDs are not long for this world. Why would someone pay for Comcast when an ISP plus Philo is $70 per month with no committment?

 

Crossing your fingers. TiVo and Roku have serious problems. Anthony Woods got paid when Roku went public. It's time for him to move on to his seventh company. Roku is selling razors while Amazon is giving them away. It IS rational to be concerned for Roku or at least temper one's enthusiasm. Ditto on TiVo. When the cost of a TiVo drops from $850 to $199, there's a problem.

 

They can do whatever they want, but people need to buy in. Apple's first priority is its shareholders. They will not stoop to Amazon/Google[/Walmart] levels to compete in the entertainment business.

 

Totally acknowledge your shows of love for that razor analogy. Now...

I don't agree that Roku has serious problems, because the facts I'm aware of don't support that suggestion - not because I'm "crossing my fingers." I also don't believe that Tivo's current circumstances are parallel to theirs. But I respect that you may have some sources, or a gut feeling - something - that makes you conclude otherwise.

Because someone has a different perspective than you, doesn't mean they are clouded by "enthusiasm." I'm sure you wouldn't want people to brush off your statements to being some kind of "enthusiastic dislike" for Roku.

 

Please share your facts. I do have an enthusiastic dislike for Roku (though I LOVE the TCL Roku TVs), but the facts that I base my opinion on are...

1. Roku is losing market share to Amazon
2. Amazon is selling higher quality streamers for less than Roku
3. Amazon is integrating OTA, OTT, and premium channels

 

Apple is all about the entertainment business. That's a very big part of what they do. iTunes and Apple TV are 100% entertainment. They have already stooped there and are planning much more.
Apple Planning Global Rollout of Streaming TV Service in 2019 | Digital Trends

 

the rest of the story...

An abridged history of Apple’s TV efforts over the years

Apple has been trying to do something big with TV for more than a decade, dating all the way back to when it first previewed the “iTV” streaming box in 2006. Years later, Apple is still trying to break into the TV industry with its biggest push yet: a streaming service expected to be announced at the company’s upcoming “It’s show time” event on March 25th, complete with original Apple-produced TV shows and movies that will be exclusive to the service.
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I'm going to pop a bowl of popcorn and see what comes of this...

1. On March 21st, Recode reported that Apple’s primary focus out of the gate will be simplifying subscriptions to services like HBO and Starz.
   
2. On March 22nd, The New York Times confirmed that HBO and CBS have agreed to be part of Apple’s new video push.
   
3. CNBC says Hulu has opted out — and Netflix has already confirmed it’s not taking part.
4. CNBC noted that even some of Apple’s partners do not yet know how the company plans to package and present the new service.
   
5. The other new service is an all-in-one subscription news / magazine service that could change the way many iPhone owners keep up with current events and their favorite publications.

Not sure you can improve upon Prime Channels which can be added and deleted at will with no penalty. CBS all access? This looks more like something to entertain people on a train than in the living room.

 

This week I noticed that Vudu had the exceptional Coen Bros. movie True Grit (2010) available for free streaming with ads. I had been wanting to rewatch it but can not stomach forced ad interruptions. I decided to try it out anyway and the ads were actually very minimal--maybe a total of four breaks of about two minutes or less apiece (I can't comment on the nature of the ads because I didn't pay attention to them). I don't know about the rest of their offerings, but this is an example of high-caliber content IMO.

Disclaimer: Although I maintain a Vudu account, I will not give them or their parent company a penny of my money because I oppose Walmart's corporate policies.

 

Their business isn't hardware anymore, it's advertising. They offer such a massive platform that they attract a lot of advertising revenue. There is always competition. Whoever comes in first will usually lose some marketshare to others who come in later and make a splash. I don't think Amazon means the end of Roku.

Great anecdote, brah. My FireTV is rotting away in a box somewhere and I use my Roku everyday. My friend just bought a new TCL Roku TV that he intends to use as a Roku TV. See, I have just as useless of an anecdote as you do.

That's actually true. At some point, they just implode on themselves. The largest MSOs (Comcast, Charter, AT&T) will hold on a lot longer though, due to their size and ability to negotiate content and force-bundle it with broadband. Once they decide it's not worth it anymore, the whole ecosystem as we know it today is toast.

So what? They're still selling Rokus and Roku TVs like crazy. Tesla is taking marketshare from Ford. Therefore, Ford must be about to go bankrupt. What?

Disagree. FireTV feels like a cheaper experience to me due to the huge amount of Amazon-centric advertising.

Although it doesn't integrate OTA and vMVPDs, I use Amazon Prime on my Roku, and can add Premium channels when I want them.