Tivo lost 145,000 customers

Discussion in 'DirecTV TiVo Powered PVRs & Receivers' started by trex527, Sep 4, 2007.

  1. Sep 4, 2007 #1 of 31
    trex527

    trex527 Tivo fool

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    Jul 15, 2007
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    This is something I picked up from afterdawn.com
    These are not easy days for TiVo Inc. The company is still struggling to add subscribers and has been hurt by miscalculations of its HDTV products' popularity in the quarter ending July 31st. It's cable partners are also still lacking in fulfilling their promises to the company. Comcast announced it would put TiVo on some of its set top boxes two years ago, but to this day there still has not been a single commercial rollout.

    In a conference call, TiVo CEO Tom Rogers tried to calm concerns about those delays, saying that Comcast was ready to rollout commercially in the next four weeks in portions of Massachusetts and New Hampshire including Boston. However, the worst news for the company has been the loss of 145,000 customers in the quarter.

    To make it worse, it is losing customers from those with the standalone box, its most profitable segment. It was the first decline the company suffered in its history. The company also underestimated the popularity of its new HDTV DVRs, causing it to take a $11.2 million writedown for leftover models of its standard DVR still in its inventories.

    Rogers said that the growth "progressed at a pace that surprised many in the industry, including us." All the problems rolled up a $17.7 million loss, much worse than both TiVo's and financial analyst's predictions.

    Source:
    Betanews
    The point of me posting this here is the question of why can't D* work out something with tivo and give us what we are wanting and that's a new hd dirctivo?I know that I'm grasping at straws but I just thought that it's worth a read.I would hope that it gives tivo a reason to work with Dtv again.
     
  2. Sep 4, 2007 #2 of 31
    milominderbinder

    milominderbinder New Member

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    Dec 18, 2006
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    If you want to see the official numbers from TiVo for yourself, they are here:

    TiVo announced that they are now losing 42,000 DIRECTV customers a month (p. 7).

    TiVo's report shows that the number of non-DIRECTV TiVo additions continues to fall since it peaked in July of 2006, the month before the HR20 shipped. TiVo is currently also reporting a net loss of non-DIRECTV subs as well.

    I hope that TiVo boxes stay a viable competitor to DISH and DIRECTV.

    - Craig
     
  3. Sep 4, 2007 #3 of 31
    atlantadan

    atlantadan New Member

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    Aug 8, 2005
    Alot more losses are coming, as we all move to the HR20, to get the HD channels
     
  4. Sep 4, 2007 #4 of 31
    garbec

    garbec New Member

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    May 14, 2004
    SLC, UT
    I see what is happening to Tivo, but I don't get it.

    Didn't they win a huge lawsuit with DISH that essentially confirmed that all generic DVRS (DirecTV, DISH, Cable) violate patents held by TIVO? If so, they should be collecting royalties from DISH, and they should be filing similar suits against every Cable company that ships a DVR. Supposedly TIVO has agreed not to sue DirecTV as part of a extension to their licencing agreement.

    Additionally, TIVO should be defining itself as a software/service company. They should be licensing their "BETTER UI & SUGGESTIONS" as upgrades to all generic DVRs. If all DVRs infringe, then TIVO is in a perfect position to trade business agreements for licensing fees.

    They need to give up on competing with hardware, and instead focus on better firmware for every DVR on the market. If they keep trying to compete with the whole world with hardware, they will die.

    From a customer perspective, I would like to see my DVR (HR20) have a $2-5 per month upgrade option to get TIVO functionality. I would pay.

    Gary
     
  5. Sep 4, 2007 #5 of 31
    milominderbinder

    milominderbinder New Member

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    True, but winning the first round of a lawsuit and collecting are very different things.

    It is a paper victory at least for now.

    The bigger issue is that TiVo has fewer subscribers:

    Code:
    				7/07	4/07	1/07	10/06	7/06	4/06
    TiVo - Owned subscriptions	1,708	1,727	1,726	1,625	1,572	1,542
    DIRECTV ave. subscriptions	2,489	2,615	2,718	2,809	2,846	2,875
    DIRECTV Net adds (losses)	-126	-103	-91	-37	-29	2
    Total cumulative subscriptions	4,197	4,342	4,444	4,434	4,418	4,417
    Total Net additions (losses)	-145	-102	10	16	1	53
    
    Source:
    http://investor.tivo.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-07-198285

    All numbers are in thousands.

    It is not just that they are losing subscribers. The speed of loss is accelerating. Remember that these numbers are all from months ago. The hysteresis is exaggerated by the fact that DIRECTV subscriptions collected this month will appear in TiVo's P/L 2 to 6 months from now.

    Based upon what you are seeing in this forum, what will be the results next quarter?

    I still hold on to an old TiVo. But for $19 and no added costs per month, I could replace it with another HR20 that can get the HD channels. I have not done it yet because I feel bad for the little TiVo guy. His antennas are all droopy and everything... :eek:

    - Craig
     
  6. Sep 4, 2007 #6 of 31
    trex527

    trex527 Tivo fool

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    Jul 15, 2007
    St.Louis
    Maybe it's just me but I think they(tivo)should try and form a new contract with Direct and if nothing else make another directivo and get some of their customers back.I don't think having two seperate dvrs would hardly hurt either company(meaning the h20 and a new one from tivo).
     
  7. Sep 4, 2007 #7 of 31
    JimSpence

    JimSpence Just hangin'

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  8. Sep 4, 2007 #8 of 31
    milominderbinder

    milominderbinder New Member

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    Jim,

    I can't speak for the OP but I don't go over to the general discussion much as most of it does not apply to me. This thread applies to my decision about whether or not to keep my DIRECTV TiVo. :)

    - Craig
     
  9. Sep 4, 2007 #9 of 31
    kmill14

    kmill14 New Member

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    Dec 11, 2006
    Tivo's all but said publicly that they are living and dying by the cable companies right now, hence the S3 and Tivo HD boxes strictly for cable and OTA.

    DTV has closed off any new possibilities with Tivo (you can blame them) until recently with new management in place.

    There has been brisk sales of the new HD box, and number of buyers were old DTV Tivo users.
     
  10. JimSpence

    JimSpence Just hangin'

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    Binghamton, NY
    You really should look at the other forums. Why? Because many threads get posted incorrectly and you can find important info there.

    Also, this thread was mistitled IMO. It implied TiVo as a company, not the general loss of all subscribers.
     
  11. BBURNES

    BBURNES Member

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    Jun 23, 2004
    St. Louis, MO
    I have a number of responses to posts in this thread...

    There are a number of reasons why TiVo has not been able to become truly a software/service company.

    In the past, cable companies (and their DVR hardware/software suppliers) and Dish Network have not been willing to pay TiVo for their product.

    In my opinion, to varying degrees, these companies have "borrowed" TiVo's intellectual property and have been able to sell DVR services to consumers without having to pay for it. Until recently, TiVo has not been actively enforcing its IP.

    TiVo's first lawsuit -- against Dish -- will set precedent in this area once judges rule on Dish's appeals later this year. While I'm not a lawyer or software/hardware developer, if the appeals court finds in TiVo's favor, there is a reasonable possibility that more favorable judgements may follow if TiVo decides to file additional suits in the future. And reasonable possibility that more partnership deals will fall into place in lieu of lawsuits.

    DirecTV, through its negotiation of an agreement with TiVo through 2010, cannot be sued for infringement. But after 2010, all bets off.

    Comcast and Cox presumably cannot be sued as well since both are developing TiVo platforms. But other operators (and hardware manufacturers) could have exposure.

    The current timing is unfortunate for TiVo. While they have been planning for decreasing subscribers on the DirecTV side of their business, the Comcast launch (and subscriber growth) has been delayed. The Dish lawsuit has been meandering through the system which further delays the revenue likely coming directly from it ... and other resulting software partnership deals/revenue.

    Additionally, TiVo made a mistake in launching an $800 HD unit earlier this year. As their stand-alone customers began to make the move to HD (thus entering into the DVR market again,) they chose to buy their DVR service through their content provider. And it is no wonder. You REALLY have to be a TiVo fan to be willing to pay $800 for a box that is nearly FREE (on its face) from cable or satellite (though generic). Perhaps there was no cheaper way to do it. However, I find that hard to believe since just a few months later, a $299 price point was met.

    So, a quadruple whammy is what I see: DirecTV's divorce, coinciding with Comcast and Cox delays, Dish lawsuit delay... and TiVo's underestimation of the HD market.

    On the positive side:

    - Comcast TiVo is almost here
    - Dish lawsuit resolution almost here
    - A more competitive SA HD product
    - New ownership at DirecTV (Liberty)
    - Increasing content and innovation at TiVo

    It will be a most interesting next 6 months.
     
  12. HiDefGator

    HiDefGator New Member

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    Oct 12, 2004
    Keep in mind the market Tivo is in is about to be flooded by well financed competitors. Both Sony and Phillips have recently annouced DVR functionality for cable. Others wil join them.

    Tivo's mgmt has claimed that the entire problem was a lack of an affordable HD DVR. But Tivo still has to prove that was the problem by selling them in quantity. It may be people just don't have enough interest in third party dvr's that cost $300 upfront and have to be replaced when they break now that leased options are available.
     
  13. milominderbinder

    milominderbinder New Member

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    Jim,

    TiVo lost 126,000 DIRECTV subscribers and another 19,000 TiVo owned subscribers.

    TiVo did suffer a general loss of all subscribers in the second quarter report.

    The OP is correct.

    - Craig
     
  14. JimSpence

    JimSpence Just hangin'

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    I stand corrected. :)

    Why did you post twice instead of editing it?
     
  15. robbins

    robbins No Stalkers Please

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    Aug 23, 2005
    Tivo committed two very bad errors:

    1. Getting rid of lifetime subscripions
    2. overpricing the S3

    They *might* have time to save the Company if both issues are fixed but they better move fast.
     
  16. HiDefGator

    HiDefGator New Member

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    Oct 12, 2004
    The vast majority of the DTivo's still active are SD units. They may not be eager to trade them for an HR20 if they are still hooked to an SD TV. But I still expect next quarter even more DTivo's will be turned off or die than this quarter. The trend has been increasing for over a year now.
     
  17. Mark Lopez

    Mark Lopez Just click ignore

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    Uh oh, some of the lemmings are straying from the pack. ;)
     
  18. guins

    guins Networked DTiVo User

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    Oct 9, 2001
    Pittsburgh, PA
    I had to jump to a D* DVR this week. I've had TiVO since '99 so to say I'm used to TiVo is an understatement. The DVR is serviceable but it is not a TiVO. In a perfect world D* and TiVo would re-unite!

    But what other viable option is there? I'm not switching to Dish....not changing hardware. I'll never go back to cable....analog tv on a widescreen is crap. Plus constant price increases. FioS? No thanks.

    Personally as much as I Loooove TiVo I'd never pay a TiVo subscription price on an HD TiVo in addition to my D* bill. I get DVR service for free (lifetime sub. grandfather). If TiVo offered lifeitme I'd consider it. but then again what good is that after TiVo is bankrupt?
     
  19. ebonovic

    ebonovic has gone his way...

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    Jul 24, 2001
    Tinley...
    There is no "viable" option, if you want HD DVR capabilities....
    Especially if you want the newer HD channels.
     
  20. TyroneShoes

    TyroneShoes HD evangelist

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    Sep 6, 2004
    Tivo has always had well-heeled competitors, going back to DISH, Replay and UTV. What none of those competitors had was a product anywhere near as good as Tivo. You can flood the market with all of the inept competitors you can think of, and Tivo will still probably stand tall above them as the premiere platform.

    One problem Tivo has is that folks just don't see how good Tivo is if they haven't yet experienced it, so those folks accept whatever is cheaper and compatible. And many of those who have only had Tivo get blindsided when they move to something else, expecting it to be about the same. As we well know, it's not. So Tivo has always had an image problem. Tivo has never had successful evangelists or missionaries to spread their gospel, and that has hurt them badly. If folks really understood how good Tivo is before they made a decision, Tivo would fare much better.

    There's only one way to get the word out, and it certainly isn't by overpricing their hardware and service in a market where subsidies to the customer rule the day.
     

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