TiVo Loses 163,000 Subscribers In October ‘08 Quarter

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by TampaDon, Nov 26, 2008.

  1. Nov 26, 2008 #1 of 131
    TampaDon

    TampaDon Don

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  2. Nov 26, 2008 #2 of 131
    Dan203

    Dan203 Super Moderator Staff Member TCF Club

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    I wonder how much of that is due to DirecTV users basically being forced to abandon their TiVos due to the new MPEG4 channels? I'd bet it's a big percentage. Unfortunately DirecTV users made up a big chunk of TiVo users, and when NDS bought DirecTV and squeezed TiVo out they cut off a huge customer base. Hopefully, now that DirecTV is owned by another company and repartnered with TiVo, subscribers will start to grow again. (at least once they finally release that new DirecTiVo box)

    Dan
     
  3. Nov 26, 2008 #3 of 131
    ncsercs

    ncsercs DirecTivo fan.......

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    I hope it's soon because the software in their DVR's are absolute junk.
     
  4. Nov 26, 2008 #4 of 131
    nrc

    nrc Cracker Soul

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    TiVo had a net loss of 28,000 owned subscriptions and 135,000 MSO (almost all DirecTV) subscriptions.
     
  5. Nov 26, 2008 #5 of 131
    Dan203

    Dan203 Super Moderator Staff Member TCF Club

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    So about 80% of the loss was DirecTV. Like I said those numbers should level off once this new DirecTiVo hits the streets.

    Dan
     
  6. Nov 26, 2008 #6 of 131
    CharlesH

    CharlesH Member

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    The DirectTivo losses one can dismiss, but isn't it more disturbing that TiVo had a net loss of 28,000 owned subscribers?
     
  7. Nov 26, 2008 #7 of 131
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Well-Known Member

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    I would think so - except I think when they say net subscriptions they are talking about actual number of units (TiVos) with a subscription, not the actual number of individual subscribers/households. There maybe some loss due to people replacing multiple single tuner units with one dual tuner unit.

    Thanks,
     
  8. Nov 26, 2008 #8 of 131
    Dan203

    Dan203 Super Moderator Staff Member TCF Club

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    I think it's probably because people are moving from SD to HD and opting for cable DVRs instead of paying $200+ out of pocket for a TiVo HD. (plus the hassle of getting CableCARDs installed) The economy going down the tubes and TiVo raising their monthly subscription prices probably didn't help either.

    TiVo is in a tough spot. They're competing with cable companies who can subsidize the cost of a DVR by simply hiding the cost in the programming bill. TiVo's true cost is right out there in the open for people to see because they have no where to hide it. To be honest I think the future of TiVo is going to be deals with providers like DirecTV, Comcast and Cox. Standalone units are going to end up being a niche product for enthusiast who want to own instead of rent.

    Dan
     
  9. Nov 26, 2008 #9 of 131
    fallingwater

    fallingwater New Member

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    http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/41...-profit-on-echostar-suit-q4-loss-expected-to/

    TiVo’s $105 million in damages from EchoStar (NSDQ: SATS) after a lengthy court battle get the credit for the DVR company swinging to a profit in Q3, with $100.6 million ($0.98 per share) versus last year’s $8.3 million loss. Without the EchoStar compensation, though, TiVo would have just narrowed its loss in Q3 to $900,000—and the company warned investors that its Q4 net loss will likely widen to a range between $10- to $12 million. By comparison, TiVo (NSDQ: TIVO) lost $6.4 million in Q407.

    While revenues were down 14.7 percent to 64.4 million, TiVo beat the Thomson Reuters analyst poll estimates of $50.7 million in revs and a loss of $0.6 per share (via AP).
     
  10. Nov 26, 2008 #10 of 131
    janry

    janry New Member

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    I'd say a lot of things caused it. All of the above, 1 year free subs expiring under the upgrade deal a year ago, and the ECONOMY.
     
  11. Nov 26, 2008 #11 of 131
    Jebberwocky!

    Jebberwocky! Guest

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    I'm pretty happy with DTV software - when I use my TIVO, the TIVO interface seems so last century ;)
     
  12. Nov 26, 2008 #12 of 131
    nrc

    nrc Cracker Soul

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    I think this is true. TiVo knows it and they've been trying to cut costs and make their stand-alone business sustainable until their strategies for cable/sat distribution and broadband content can take off.

    TiVo is also bracing for a rough fourth quarter. The economy will eliminate luxuries like TiVo from many people's budgets. Best Buy, their top retailer, predicts CE sales down 15% and Circuit City, their number two retailer, is in bankruptcy. This will likely mean another big bleed of subscribers through the end of the year.

    The good news is that they've got no debt and $200 million in cash to help them weather this.
     
  13. Nov 26, 2008 #13 of 131
    Lazlo123

    Lazlo123 New Member

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    They've also got nothing to worry about because they're all but guaranteed a bailout from the government, right? Right? :D
     
  14. Nov 26, 2008 #14 of 131
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    I love Tivo and I dont think anything is going to happen soon but it's tough to see how they are viable long term.

    They hardly ever made money.

    They are bleeding now.

    the comcast and cox deals have amounted to jack sprat so far after years of work.

    The new directivo has to be some time away.

    even assuming the new directivo and comcast and cox deals all start to get loads of subs- tivo really never made much money when directv had piles and piles of tivo customers becasue they only make a buck a box or so.

    Maybe the ads and the downloads all start adding to the bottom line but for now tivo hasn't made anything big enough in ads that they are willing to say out loud how much it is. And if netflix is charging just 9 bucks a month for the download plan, how much of that (IF ANYTHING) are they sharing with tivo?
     
  15. Nov 26, 2008 #15 of 131
    kmill14

    kmill14 New Member

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    The New DirecTV deal should significantly improve TiVo's revenue based on the release stating the deal is significantly higher than the previous one.

    As far as Comcast goes...well..when have they done anything fast and reliable?

    With $200+ million in cash, TiVo can afford to sit tight and let all these 3rd party groups fight over their brand name.

    The question will be: will one of these MSOs ever open up to the full TiVo suite of offerings, and allow a DTV (or Comcast) user access to the Netflix Streaming or Amazon On Demand?

    PS: Don't forget...the Stand-Alone sub losses are in part due to the write-off of lifetime subs. My guess is real churn is much lower than what they have to put on the books.
     
  16. Nov 26, 2008 #16 of 131
    TiVo Steve

    TiVo Steve New Member

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    They just need to find somebody else to sue!:eek:
     
  17. Nov 26, 2008 #17 of 131
    lofar

    lofar New Member

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    Yes and no, as a recent convert from cable DVR's I can say that the cable DVR's were indeed more expensive. The total cost was about $10-15 more. However, I think that only applies to households that have two DVR's because the cable companies get to charge double fees and don't give any discount. I paid something like $5.95/mo for each box/connection and then an additional $12/mo for the actual DVR service of which I had to pay twice. Plus taxes, fees, franchise fees etc. It was $40-45 a month extra on my bill for two cable DVR's. The cost margin between the two would be considerably lower with only one DVR in a household.

    Tivo is a straight up $12.95 and $9.95 with no taxes or extra fees. Admittedly it took me a long time to jump into the tivo mainly because of the high up front costs and because i was scared of the possibly of cable card problems as well as general quality problems with the HD models.
     
  18. Nov 26, 2008 #18 of 131
    Mamoth

    Mamoth New Member

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    Not everywhere. I get nailed for tax now. So do folks in TX and such.
     
  19. Nov 26, 2008 #19 of 131
    ShoutingMan

    ShoutingMan Member

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    It must vary with specific cable rates and number of DVRs in the house.

    For me, I don't like paying both for hardware and subscription service. I'll pay for one, but I will avoid you twice for the same thing. So I didn't get a Tivo until last year, when the Dual Tuner models were free. And now I gladly pay the monthly sub, since the hardware didn't cost anything.

    But as I look to a possible switch to HD next year, it's a tough choice. I need a $60/mo cable sub to start. The cable DVR is $10/mo. Or, I can buy a $600 HD Tivo, $6/mo in cable cards, and $10/mo for Tivo subscription.

    Over 3 years, it's $70/mo with the cable company versus $93/mo with Tivo. Going Tivo increases my monthly bill by 33%! That's quite a lot. This is a tough sell in the best of times; these days it may seem "let them eat cake" extravagant to even Tivo owners.
     
  20. Nov 26, 2008 #20 of 131
    nhaigh

    nhaigh Member

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    I've reduced the number of TiVo boxes I operate as the MSD benefit has been eroded and the cost of ownership has grown. I think that kind of attrition also has an effect here.
     

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