Survivor Samoa "The Day of Reckoning" OAD 11/19/2009

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It wasn't a 12.5% risk for him drawing a rock...it was a 50% chance that anybody on "his" side would draw a rock, and therefore be in the minority of a 5-4 vote next week. Basically, he did not want to risk a 50% chance of losing in order to save Laura. One could argue however that by switching he has 100% chance of being onthe losing side now. He needed to get something from Foa Foa for the switch. Due to editing, we don't know whether or not Russel made an agreement with him to take him to the final 4, etc. for his vote.

Russel is in the catbird's seat, but the greatest threat to him would be for the other 3 members of Foa Foa + Shambo to approach him as a group, and demend he tell them who he would vote out when it got down to the final 5 (or 6). That would open the possibility for the 2-3 people on the "bottom" of the totem pole to mutiny.

It seems obvious to me that the 4 Foa Foa members have a blood oath to go to the final 4 and that they are simply stringing Shambo along. If Shambo figures this out, she might make a coalition of her own and vote Russ off.

 

I see. I'll admit to not doing any research short of just watching the show.

 

Actually it was worse than that. Someone on another board posted the tiebreaker rules and Mick would not have had to pull a rock, so only 7 rocks pulled with 4 being in John's group and 3 being in Russell's group.

 

"If there is a tie between Contestants, then a second vote may be conducted in which all non-eliminated Contestants at the Tribal Council (other than the tied Contestants) must vote to eliminate one of such tied Contestant. This voting process may continue until one and only one Contestant is chosen for elimination. If, however, there is a deadlock in the voting as determined by the Producer in its sole discretion, then the following shall occur: (a) the Contestants who are tied with the same number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and number of votes for elimination are separated from the other Contestants; and (b) the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants at the Tribal Council have two minutes to discuss and decide, in an open forum, which of the tied Contestants should be eliminated. If a decision is reached by the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants, the Contestant whom they have chosen for elimination is eliminated. On the other hand, if, after the two minute discussion, the remaining non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants have not reached a decision as to which one of the tied Contestants should be eliminated, the following shall occur (subject to the clarification set forth below): the tied Contestants are now deemed to be immune from elimination at this Tribal Council, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants (with the sole exclusion of any remaining, non-tied, Contestant who has previously been granted immunity for this Tribal Council as a result of winning a Challenge) must choose a rock from a bag without looking inside of the bag. The Contestant who selects the differently colored rock is eliminated. In addition, and for purposes of clarification, if three or more Contestants are tied for elimination, and the voting Contestants are deadlocked, and the tied Contestants are separated from the remaining non-tied Contestants, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants decide during their initial two minute discussion that one or more of the tied Contestants should not be eliminated and yet, nevertheless, two or more Contestants remain tied, then the Contestant who was, or the Contestants who were, part of the tie, but who is or are no longer part of the tie, shall join the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied Contestants for an additional two minute discussion regarding which of the Contestants who are still tied for elimination should be eliminated. (If this second two minute discussion results in a decision to not eliminate another one or more still-tied Contestants, and if nevertheless two or more Contestants remain tied for elimination, then a third two minute discussion shall be held among the remaining non-tied Contestants and all of the Contestants who have been removed from the tied group of Contestants. This process shall continue, and Contestants shall be removed from the tied group, and further two-minute discussions shall be held until the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants either (a) are deadlocked regarding all of the now-tied Contestants, or (b) choose one Contestant for elimination.) If two or more two-minute discussions as described above do not determine which one of the tied Contestants should be eliminated, then the rock-picking ceremony shall be held as set forth above, and any Contestants who were tied for elimination and who were subsequently brought back into the voting group as a result of a two minute discussion shall be required to participate in the rock-picking ceremony along with all of the other remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants without immunity. However, the rock-picking tie breaker shall not apply to a tie that exists among the final four Contestants. In the event that a deadlock tie exists among the final four Contestants, the two Contestants who are tied shall compete against each other in a challenge to be decided in the sole discretion of the Producer. The Contestant who loses this competition shall be eliminated from further participation in the Series as a Contestant."

 

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I thought that was a stupid thing for John to ask for. By switching, he basically ensured that the Foa Foa 4 now have the power and he has now aligned with them. Why would he want to weaken that alliance? He should simply be content with taking out a couple people from Galu and then trying to make a swing move when there are 7 left.

Russell spelled it wrong the first time, but fixed it on the second vote. We looked at the handwriting of each person's vote they showed over the final confessional and went back and compared it to the misspelled vote and it was definitely Russell. No surprise there. He's got plenty of street smarts, but he doesn't strike me as having much book learning.

I thought that was a really hypocritical thing for him to say. He also voted for Erik that week. If he had such a problem with it, why did he go along with it?

I think you're probably right. Because anyone who knows Russell knows that he wouldn't rest until he found it, so the fact that he was relaxing at camp should have been a pretty good indication to everyone that he has it. And since he's show a willingness to play it rather than just keep it in his pocket, that will make everyone else think twice about voting for him, because they've got to have a backup plan in place if he plays it.

That's a good point. By switching, John essentially determined which alliance would have the power for the next several episodes. Had he not switched, he'd have been at the mercy of the rock, and even if he didn't draw it, he could have wound up on the outside anyway. He chose to take charge of his own destiny rather than leave it to chance.

I'm loving Russell. After the first episode, I loved that he was already playing, but hated some of the stunts he pulled, that didn't seem to serve any strategic purpose. But now he's really turning out to be the hardest working player (from a strategy standpoint) of anyone since Richard Hatch. I'm so glad his alliance now appears to be in power. Whether he wins or not, his presence is making this season one of the best in a long, long time.

 

That's what I thought. Plus, if they didn't know when he was sitting around not looking, they're all idiots. I even said as much at the time.

 

Disagree. I think he is being a dick about it.

 

behind their backs yes but not to their faces

 

Are you sure your opinion of him isn't colored by his conduct in the early episodes? I'll freely admit that the stuff he did in the first episode (stealing canteens, burning socks, etc.) was really dumb. And the stories he told about being from NOLA and surviving Katrina didn't seem to serve much purpose. But from what they've shown us on the show, none of the other players are aware of any of those things, and as far as they know, Russell is the model teammate and consumate Survivor. I think in order to say that he's being a dick about it, he'd have to be flaunting stuff in people faces, which he isn't doing. He's cocky as hell in his one-on-one interviews with the camera, but he's been a perfect gentleman when dealing with the other players.

 

I too have done a 180 on Russell (my wife still roots against him though). He might be playing the best game in the history of Survivor (if he wins). His deal with John, is to get rid of a Foa Foa, but my thinking was that he's going to throw Shambo under the bus. She's going to be the "Foa Foa" they get rid of, and that would be pretty easy to convince the other Galu members. Now that he has John on his side, Russell coud afford to get rid of Shambo and not hurt his numbers. If he pulls this off, I think he wins.

 

it is too soon to do that. if they get rid of shambo, then john can flip back and it is back to a 4-4 tie position.

 

That's true, but obviously, Russell does this with the assumption that John is now his ally. If he's not, then you're right, it doesn't work.

 

i think you hint at a good point. WHEN and WHOM in the following "alliance" try to flip and get someone else in the alliance out.

russell
jaison
mick
nat
shambo
john

 

John certainly made the right choice...chances were somebody was going home from his tribe anyways and he made as well make sure that it wasn't him! Basically it was the best of 2 evils.

And I agree....just give Russell his money....gawd does he deserve it!

 

I said it early in the the first thread about this season: I like Russell.

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=7504580&#post7504580

Spoiler

As far as the chicken(s) go, Russell said from the beginning, a big part of his strategy was to make everyone else miserable. I admire his strategy.

 

I'm sure. I didn't see the first several episodes.

 

Why does everyone think that Shambo is on Foa Foa's side now? She wanted to get rid of Laura and I predict that next week she'll be right back to purple power. Galu still has 5 and Foa Foa still has 4.

 

Really? Shambo has always hated Galu...

 

And they are none to fond of her either. Dave has treated her with contempt and Monica hasn't hidden her opinion either.

 

the genius about russell finding the HII is this: he saw dave was really close to finding it, so he distracted him and somehow got dave to chase him. and then he loses him,( which is beyond me how he could get away from everyone), and is right about the idol location. i mean, that was genius.... the guy is always thinking... count me among the russell haters at first... this guy is the best player ever.

i don't understand how the losers of the reward challenge weren't looking for the idol.. i would think russell has set the precedent.

they lost the immunity challenge the moment they put john on the hammock thingy. they should've put a girl(i guess shambo was the only one left), and use the strength to manuever the ropes.

john absolutely did the right thing. and russell was genius again in exposing the "vote for john" plan and showing john he had no choice.

i loved john's reaction to the "vote for john" plan. the guy is very arrogant, but everything he said in this episode was spot on.

dave has mastered the "wow, i can't believe that just happened" face.

the last 3 eps, collectively, have to be the best episodes of survivor.... EVER.