Survivor - 11/2/11

Had to Google that, but yes, it fits.

 

Also, didn't Cochran tell Sophie that Ozzie and gang were voting Rick? But she wouldn't tell him who they were voting for.

So the Coach gang was able to vote Keith knowing that if Cochran did flip, they would be getting out an immunity threat (and giant d-bag).

 

If Cochran told them they were voting for Rick, why didn't they give Rick the HII?

 

Seems to me that in the past few seasons food hasn't really been an issue. I can remember seasons where it was a big deal. Teams worrying about getting enough protein to stay strong during challenges. Teams down to just a little rice and having to ration food. Food rewards were a huge deal. Now there is little talk of food and plenty of reward food.

 

Probably because they still didn't fully trust Cochroach and he could have been giving misinformation.

Also Coach as selfless as Ozzie. He's smarter than that.

 

I think they knew they had Cochran, and are saving it for later.

A calculated risk.

 

He had a look on his face that said, "Are you done yet?" I loved it.

They didn't need to. They believed Cochran was going to flip and they were going to get the numbers advantage without having to play their HII.

Something that hasn't been mentioned is that if Cochran hadn't flipped and they'd gone to a rock drawing, five of the 12 people wouldn't have been eligible to pull rocks (Ozzy and Dawn due to individual immunity, Whitney due to the HII, and Keith and Rick because they were the ones being voted for). So it would have come down to a 1 in 7 chance that one of the other players was going home. As Cochran said, he wouldn't have risked his game on even a 1 in 30 chance, so why would he risk it on a 1 in 7 chance?

If Cochran could have been assured that he'd make it through the rock drawing, it would have been smarter for him to stick with his tribe. He was in 6th place with his current tribe and is now in 7th place with the other tribe. That's where he would have been no matter which team emerged from this TC with the numbers advantage. If his team had won, he'd have been in 6th place after they picked off all the other tribe. If the other tribe had won, they'd likely get rid of everyone else before Cochran. So Cochran did nothing to improve his standing in the game, other than assured himself that he'd make it through this TC by not having to pull rocks. Since the goal is always to come out of TC with your torch still burning, he made the right move.

 

I was waiting for the rant by psycho Brandon at Tribal. He actually kept his mouth shut for once. Cochran may not know how crazy his new friend is yet.

Weird when they were blaming Cochran for not going to redemption instead of Ozzy. Hey guys, he can't vote for himself--you voted Ozzy.

I HATE the way they do ties. Why not just let the 2 with the votes draw rocks? Why are they safe? I see that they want to force them to avoid ties, but it's so unfair.

Nobody seemed surprised when they said Keith would go to redemption. Did they know that, or did they just assume from last season?

 

I'm guessing they knew about it from the previous season, and perhaps were even briefed on the format before the season began.

 

But talk about drama.....I think this proves that the producer's rules are fantastic and created the most drama possible.

 

"Clearly, they could not choose Rick! ...."

 

Exactly. If only those who received votes were in jeopardy of pulling a rock, those casting the votes would have no incentive to change or prevent a stalemate. But when a stalemate results in the intended targets being safe and everyone else being in jeopardy, it creates lots of strategic conversations and many self-preservation techniques to avoid picking the wrong color rock.

 

That's a very short term goal. And while surviving every TC may get one into the finals, there are many other factors that Cochroach should have considered if he was playing for the real goal of winning ONE MILLION DOLLARS.

 

His own tribe doesn't like him. He's losing nothing by flipping. Really, it's as much the fault of the tribe for making it clear how far on the outs he was and how barely he was hanging on.

 

But he's not really gaining anything either, except survival through this TC. As I elaborated earlier, he's likely in roughly the same place in the overall pecking order whether he makes the move or not, and whether his tribe gains the advantage or not.

Bottom line: If Cochran wants to get to the finals and have any chance at winning, he's still got a ton of work to do, and this move may have made it more difficult for him.

 

His place with his former tribe was pretty much a lock: 6th out of 6. He has had 3 weeks of assessing the alliances and allegiances of his former tribemates, and concluded - I think correctly - that he stood no real shot of moving up that pecking order.

What do you do when faced with such a situation? You shake things up. You upset the apple cart. You make a move. What you don't do is leave things as they are. The potential payoff is having a fresh start with a new group in which he may be able to carve out a better situation.

What did he risk? Dropping from 6th on one tribe to 7th on the other. That makes it a no-brainer to make the move. As many have said, this is about a million dollars, not about finishing 6th instead of 7th.

 

I think Cochran will pull a Keyser Söze type move and surprise everyone. .

 

Looking at it a different way, assuming Coach's tribe votes out all of Ozzy's tribe, Cochran moved up from 12th to 7th. And as others have pointed out, if he becomes the swing vote in a 3 - 3 split, then he might have moved from 12th to 4th. And once you're 4th, anything can happen. So worth it for him.

I'm not saying he actually thought all that through , but that is the situation he could face.

 

What does his business have to do with anything?

 

But isn't Cochran now "the one everyone wants to sit next to at Final Council"?

I also wonder: if Ozzy blabbed about his plan to go to redemption to Dalton before the season started, who else did he blab to? Could it have reached Coach? Could that explain why Coach figured it out so effortlessly?

I agree that Ozzy was a terrible liar. Cochran also gets a red nose and red cheeks when he gets caught in a lie, so it's very easy to read him. Still, Coach is either a lot smarter than I thought or just knew the deal already. I'm going with "knew about it already".