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Discussion in 'DirecTV TiVo Powered PVRs & Receivers' started by JoeAverage, Aug 20, 2007.
Enjoy making do with SD programming.
Hey....until they dump MPEG2 HD, it's (HR10) still got much to offer (not to mention OTA - HD). I think it'll be some time before that happens as D* is gonna want to contact all the remaining HR10 owners and try to get them to upgrade (and notify them that the HD programming they're paying for is not going to be available by a certain date).
If they don't, and simply cutoff MpEG2 ...their switchboards are gonna be going nuts w/some very unhappy peoples.
Before that time, this puppy will be off to greener grassland.
TiVoHD options are being researched for whenever that day comes.
That day will happen... and it is going to happen a lot sooner then some of you may think it is.
No. No phone line is needed unles you want to do Pay Per View.
Here is the thread where people are talking about doing the upgrade:
HR10-250 and MPEG4; Upgrade Offer
Lots of success stories there getting this type of deal. Most are able to keep their TiVo's for the old channels and adding a box for the new ones (and old).
They also added 11 more HD channels today for a total of 40+. (9 MPEG2, 4 Locals, 21 last week, 11 this week)
Sorry Ed, but I sincerely doubt it.
...I don't doubt that it eventually will happen, I just doubt that they're simply gonna 'flip a switch' and cut it off w/o contacting and extending offers to the remaining HR10 owners out there (and I'm sure there are a lot of them) that are paying for HD access.
Think about the ramifications of thousands of people suddenly turning on their HD televisions one morning, and finding that all of their HD channels that they're paying for are simply gone ...and they have no idea why.
Think of the phone calls and hostility that will create if, in place of their HD channels they find a notice stating "these channels are no longer available: your bill has been adjusted to reflect the loss of your HD package. In order to continue receiving HD programming, please contact D* to lease our new $199 MPEG4 DVR."
Think of the billing department having to adjust all these bills to reflect the loss of that HD access ...and think of the revenues that D* will lose because of that.
Think of the mass of orders for HR20's that will inundate D* ...all at once ...so that all these folks who didn't even know what 'MPEG4' is can continue to watch HD programming on their HD sets.
Companies just don't do that (even D*). You do not alienate your best customers (and I would hasten a guess that most of those with HD programming are customers paying the highest bills).
I would guess that the majority of HR10 owners out there haven't a clue that an MPEG4 DVR is even available (I imagine it's a very small percentage that actually read these boards) ...D* needs to contact every single one of them and let them know ....well in advance .....that these new options are available to them and that their HD programming will cease to be available.
I've not received a notice from D* ...not a phone call, nor a letter ...nothing.
D* does not want to lose customers and revenues, and if they simply 'turn off' these HD channels without notifying and working to assuage these premier customers, they'd be making a huge mistake.
Even D* is not that stupid.
I agree, there will likely be some effort to contact users of legacy equipment to give advanced notice of the shutoff and provide a path to get new equipment.
An unannounced "flip of the switch" doesn't make much sense.
Hmm... double negative? Did you mean: "...I don't doubt that it eventually will happen,"?
Let's not forget that there are lots of us with plain HD mpeg2-only receivers in addition to the HR10.
LOL...yeah, that's what I meant. Sorry, fixed it (recovering from shoulder surgery and the pain meds have me a bit on the stupid side).
Thanks for catching that.
As far as those HD mpeg2 receivers ...that adds to the fact that it would create an even bigger mess if they just 'cut it off.'
Well... what can I tell you...
Next NFL Season the Sunday Ticket will be MPEG-4 only.
They have a definitive timeline that they have to get their content off teh 72.5 sat and put "somewhere", and that is going to be on the 101/110/119
Where do you think that bandwith comes from?
As you reach a critical mass point, they are going to switch.
It hasn't been a secret for nearly 3 years now, that you were going to have to switch.
So yes... it is going to be a lot sooner, then a lot of you are painting the picture to be.
Given the latest number of HR10-250 systems that are still active (which is right now, very small in relation to the overal HD subscriber base)...
Yes, they are going to bite the bullet... and it is not going to be as painfull to DirecTV as you may think it will be.
Never said it wouldn't be "unannounced"... they most certainly will announce it.
Just said that it was going to be "sooner" then a lot of people may think it will be.
Would you care to take a guess on how much "sooner" it might be, like a date range ?
I would not be surprised if it isn't completed by the end of Q2, if not Q3.
That's a double/triple negative - so at this point I have no idea what you said
I would expect that after Sunday Ticket is over they will start with contacting people that have HD but don't have at least 1 MPEG4 reciever and there really won't be that many people left in that category. If my friends are any indication, every single one of them that is HD capable (13 of them) now have an HR20. Many just called up this week after the new channels went live but they all now have at least one MPEG4 capable receiver. There are some that called up to get a 2nd and 3rd one now that the channels are live. So they are covered. By the end of the year, with all the new HD, there just isn't going to be that many "hold outs" that haven't at least got an H20/21 let alone an HR20 added to their mix to get the new channels.
So while next year they may have tens of thousands still with just MPEG2 HD equipment, it's not going to be that many that they can't swap people out quickly.
And to think that DirecTV wouldn't do it just to not piss off customers, you need to think back in history. How about all the people that cable pissed off (and still do) when analog channels move to the digital teir? How about all those that will be forced to get new receivers for switched video? How about Dish telling people that the Voom channels would be going to MPEG4 only and they have 2 months to get a new receiver (not free) or lose them.
Not saying it's right but this happens all the time and the few tens of thousands affected out of 16+ million just gets taken care of. If you piss off a few and they leave so be it, it won't be noticed.
Not to us, but Joe Consumer probably has no idea. And to contact Joe well in advance of any switch so as to give him an opportunity to continue paying D* for his D* HD access, is just simple, good business sense.
Now, I realize nobody ever accused D* of being smart, and having good business sense ....but how difficult would this be to implement so as to avoid losing revenue?
Between the HR10's, and H10's there's plenty of units out there. And they don't want to lose this income.
Perhaps you've been told otherwise by your contacts, but I cannot see any reason that D* wouldn't contact all their HD customers well in advance of the mpeg2 shutoff so as to give them the opportunity to upgrade and continue paying for their HD access.
I would imagine they'll also offer this at a discounted price ...if not free ... as incentive to make the switch while locking in another 2 years.
There would be absolutely no reason for them to not give folks plenty of time to get installed and paying before hand ...not rocket science ...it just wouldn't make sense.
I think you are misunderstanding Earl. No one is saying DirecTV is just going to flip the switch then say Sorry. I would estimate that by the end of the year there will not be a lot of people with only an HR10 or other Mpeg-2 HD receiver. Most people will start upgrading due to the new channels and when enough customers have done that I fully expect DirecTV to offer free or very cheap upgrades in advance of making the switch. I could easily see this happening in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of next year. How many people are going to sit around for the next 6 months and not get all the new channels from DirecTV in HD. That is a very reasonable time frame. I highly doubt their will still be Mpeg-2 HD channels next fall when football season starts.
The conversion from MPEG2 to MPEG4 has been happening steadily. They have stated their beginning and endpoints in their quarterly earnings conferences:
A. The NFL ST will still be in the MPEG2 HD for H10/HR10 receivers through the Super Bowl.
B. Beginning August 2008, the NFL ST will be in MPEG4 only.
Here are my guesses as to how they will get from point A to point B.
DIRECTV reported that of nearly 40,000,000 receivers in the field only a small percentage were HR10's or H10's.
Their churn and growth total about 100,000 new receivers (SD & HD) a month. They have expanded the number of installers and added a third installation slot each day at 6 AM. So in the next year they are geared up to install 1 - 2 million receivers.
We have watched in this thread as people got deals on the HR20. The $19 deals for HR10/H10 owners actually started last winter.
So how many of the old MPEG2 boxes still need to be replaced? Only DIRECTV knows.
First came the 150 Carrots: 21 HD Channels, then 11 more, then more and more until they hit their promised 100 this year and up to 150 in 2008.
They are putting the squeeze on offering certain channels only in MPEG4 HD:
Food Network HD 231-1
MGM HD 255
NBA TV HD 601-1
Smithsonian Channel HD 267
Starz Comedy HD 519
Starz Kids & Family HD 518
20+ Regional Sports Networks broadcast nationally.
We are hearing from people getting the new deals that they are backlogged 3-4 weeks in most areas. That may explain why they still have not even issued a press release that D10 is now on. The HD ads have been pulled since August except in markets not maxed out. Even when the ads come back, I bet it will be slowly.
Then comes the stick.
I am betting that as soon as the holiday and Super Bowl surge subside, DIRECTV will start using mailings, and bill inserts. The outbound call script will begin with something like, "You have qualified for an exciting upgrade!"
I bet there is a chart up on some manager's wall showing the remaining legacy HD subscribers and their monthly conversion goals. I bet that chart shows "0" remaining in August of 2008. I do believe that HR10's will still be able to recevie SD and OTA HD after that.
I sure hope they get DLB's on the HR20 before the 2008 NFL season starts. I don't want to have to use 4 HR20's to give me the ability to watch 4 games simultaneously that I can currently do with 2 HR10-250's. Earl since you seem to be in the know on timelines at D* what do you think the chances of DLB's on the HR20's are by Sep '08?
I think they will, I think you misunderstand Earl.
If the plan is shutdown of MPEG2 HD in say July or August (3rd quarter), I'd think contacting people starting in January/Feb is plenty of time. That's 6 months of time.