Prediction: TiVo with DirecTV or Comcast

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by MarkSFCA, Jan 11, 2011.

  1. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    My belief is that DirectTV and Comcast are waiting for the outcome of the legal suit against DISH/Echostar . . . and this is what I think will happen . . . if the outcome is favorable to TiVo, both DirectTV and Comcast will become serious about releasing the DirectTV TiVo and Comcast TiVo ASAP. . . and if DISH wins they will dump the pending TiVo boxes or leave them as "coming soon" indefinitely. Comcast and DirectTV are not taking TiVo seriously right now but they will take TiVo seriously if TiVo wins the lawsuit. Only time will tell . . .
     
  2. JimboG

    JimboG New Member

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    My prediction is that whole sentences will be in short supply for the near future.

    Ellipses will have to take their place... ... ... ...:rolleyes:
     
  3. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    haha . . . you're so funny . . . NOT!
     
  4. scandia101

    scandia101 Just the facts ma'am

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    Omg... It's true... JimboG was right...
     
  5. nrc

    nrc Cracker Soul

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    From heavily redacted agreement that was filed with TiVo's financial reports, I don't think that DirecTV really has practical option to just abandon the product. Once TiVo delivers the product as spec'ed DirecTV is on the hook to distribute it and promote it. Sure, DirecTV can drag their feet, but I doubt that they can delay it indefinitely or drop it entirely without legal consequences.
     
  6. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    I suspect that DirecTV is probably changing the specs as a tactic to delay releasing it until the DISH lawsuit is settled. TiVo has no leverage with the large Cable/Satellite companies. If they finally win the lawsuit, I believe that Comcast and DirecTV will then take TiVo more seriously and you will start to see more cooperation between the companies.
     
  7. MikeAndrews

    MikeAndrews Registered abuser

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    tl;dr
     
  8. ZeoTiVo

    ZeoTiVo I can't explain

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    DirectTV bought all the replayTV patents, DirectTV is not so concerned about any suit for infringement.

    also the TiVo patents have been upheld twice by the USPO and DISH has been found to infringe with the original design. The only thing hanging open is can DISH just make some changes and claim the infringement is over or does DISH need to do more to avoid the injunction telling them to shut off the DVRs.
     
  9. t1voproof

    t1voproof Member

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    Patents are good for 20 years, so if the earliest is from 1999 Tivo still has time.
     
  10. gastrof

    gastrof Hubcaps r in fashion

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    Potato and pen.
    Comcast's cable boxes with TiVo software/UI are already in homes and have been for some time.
     
  11. Vect0r

    Vect0r Member

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    Not in all areas, actually very few and mostly east coast. But yea, what he said ^^
     
  12. Series3Sub

    Series3Sub Well-Known Member

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    Quite correct. DirecTV has no choice but to present this DirecTiVo box, and you are especially correct about how DirecTV is obligated to pay just about all costs associated with the device, including its promotion, but in the agreement TiVo agreed that it will not sue DirecTV for patent infringement. That favored and powerful TiVo trump card is null and void.

    However, breach of contract is another legal option open to TiVo, but DirecTV makes the chances, at this point, of such a legal claim being meritorious highly unlikely as they ever so slowly inch their way into reluctantly getting this new DirecTiVO to it's subscribers.

    Furthermore, TiVo, from their view so close to being done after all this time that TiVo can taste it, really isn't interested in making things worse by ruining its legacy with--and destroying its best opportunity for survival in the short term--the only partner that has proved a big success in providing it with most of its subscribers, at least while the old partnership was relatively fresh, and antagonizing the mean Mr. White of DirecTV who could respond with legal pivots further complicating TiVo's tenuous financial situation as the cost of the Dish lawsuit is still an incredible burden on a TiVo's bottom line and limited resources as it is trying to desperately stay alive long enough to benefit from a final legal victory against Echostar/Dish.

    No, DirecTV holds all the cards in this agreement, and they will take their sweet time as Mr. White shows absolutely no enthusiasm for the long awaited new DirecTiVo product. He has even tried to diminish its planned features by proclaiming that it won't be much different from the DirecTV DVR product, and DircTiVo won't do anything that his product wouldn't do. DirecTV seems to know exactly what it is doing, and it may be an even worse deed than what Echostar/Dish is believed to be doing. One is a stab in the front, while the other is a stab in the back from a "partner" to the poor little TiVo icon. The worst act upon TiVo has to be what CableLabs wrought. Are all those stupid Cable Card and SDV problems by accident or design? I think we all know the answer to that one, but let's not say here.

    Don't be surprised to see DirecTiVo availability pushed back to December 31, 2011. Hey, Michale White and Charlie Ergan both worked at Frito Lay! What other similarities are there :).
     
  13. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    Very interesting analysis. I hope TiVo wins the final appeal against DISH because TiVo needs that leverage to compete against the big guns.
     
  14. ZeoTiVo

    ZeoTiVo I can't explain

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    TiVo has already had its patents upheld - but it is about a specific parsing process that really is not that needed with straight digital recording. This part of the trial is about what to do with the DVRs that are infringing but running now with somewhat modified software.

    You are ascribing more to the DISH trial than is there.
     
  15. Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    I hope the companies negatively impacted by TiVo's greed and desperation can engineer their way around all this crap.

    Who could buy out TiVo and dispose of them so that they could get the patents and such? Who would want to?
     
  16. JimboG

    JimboG New Member

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    If Tivo's work in 1999 was so obvious to all and sundry, why didn't you personally launch a competing DVR beforehand?:rolleyes:

    Allegations that a patented invention was trivial or obvious seem an awful lot like Monday morning quarterbacking. Sure, the iPhone seems like the natural thing to do now that every Tom, Dick and Harry has a smart phone with a touch screen and an open software development environment.

    Before the iPhone, there was the Blackberry and Palm. Before the Tivo, you had a VCR flashing 12:00 at you. It's easy to second guess things after the fact. It is far more difficult to create a game changing innovation and bring it to market.
     
  17. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    I doubt that. When the en banc hearing was granted by the full panel of appellate judges, the stock plummeted from 18 down to 9. If that's not proof of the importance of the case against DISH to TiVo's future, I don't know what is.
     
  18. MarkSFCA

    MarkSFCA Member

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    It has taken years to roll out both the new “DirecTV TiVo” and the “Comcast cable box with TiVo”. It’s obvious that DirecTV and Comcast have the resources to release an excellent TiVo product but they have not released anything. I think that they agreed to work with TiVo to avoid being sued by TiVo. Then, they drag their feet to release the boxes/upgrades for years to avoid TiVo from gaining any new customers from these agreements. They make it sound like they are working with TiVo but it’s just a tactic to avoid being sued by TiVo and by not releasing the products, it keeps TiVo from profiting off their customers.

    If TiVo loses the appeal with DISH, both Comcast and DirecTV will drag their feet even longer to release these boxes/upgrades. If TiVo wins the appeal with DISH, then I believe that TiVo will FINALLY have the leverage it needs against DirecTV, Comcast, AT&T and Verizon and all these companies will take TiVo more seriously and will work on REAL agreements that actually produce a final product that can be used. The agreements with DirecTV and Comcast were made a number of years ago and still nothing has been released except for a few areas in New England (Comcast).

    The only companies that are actually working with TiVo to produce products that can be used by their customers are the small cable companies (RCN and Suddenlink) because they don’t have the resources to produce their own cable boxes that have all the bells and whistles that people want these days in their cable boxes.
     
  19. CuriousMark

    CuriousMark Forum Denizen

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    Ahh conventional wisdom. You are not alone in these beliefs, it is the easy conclusion to reach if you don't bother to look more deeply.

    Both companies are paying TiVo to do that development, the longer it stretches out the more they are paying. Comcast and TiVo have said that the approach used in the Northeast did not go well due to hardware and infrastructure problems. Comcast is now paying NDS to "harden" (aka re-write) the middleware stack that TiVo software is supposed to run on in those boxes and the head end software that goes with it. If TiVo was developing on a stable working platform, I don't think Comcast would be paying millions to do it all over again. The direcTV debacle has been recently reported as being due to TiVo having trouble making the old style user interface work with a whole bunch of DirecTV features that DirecTV demands the new box support. These probably (guessing here) include the weather and sport score widgets, multiple PIP screen channels for news and sports, color button remote feature support such as normal and direcTV style closed captioning, etc. Given that TiVo was unwilling to implement something much simpler, such as the disk capacity meter, in that old UI, I suspect these DirecTV requirement proved much harder to implement than TiVo's marketing department originally expected. TiVo has also made it clear they have an engineering manpower shortage, so that probably also contributes.

    So says the conventional wisdom. Please come back and eat some crow if either of these get off the ground before the CAFC rules.

    Several initiatives are expected to go live in late spring early summer, including DirecTV. If the CAFC announces a win a few days before one of these, I am sure the conventional wisdom will attribute those turn ups to the CAFC and not the long gestating products finally coming to market on their own terms. If TiVo wins at the CAFC in March or April, dish will appeal to the supreme court and it will be July before we know if the supremes care to take on the case. If they do, it will be very late this year or early next year before this is resolved. If DirecTV, Cox, Comcast, Ono, Virgin, and Suddenlink all or mostly all come to life before then, your premise will be fully refuted. Let's see what happens.

    Now here your premise is much firmer. AT&T and Verizon are at the start of litigation that will indeed depend to a more or lesser degree on the results of the Dish effort. Both of those companies are likely to reconsider a settlement offer after the CAFC and Supremes have spoken if it goes TiVo's way than if it does not.

    DirecTV DVR is in Beta and is expected to be out around April according to chatter here and at DBSTalk.
    Comcast and Cox both abandoned the downloadable TiVo and Comcast waiting for NDS to finish "hardening" the Tru2way middleware stack. So that effort was a flat failure of the middleware. Those efforts are OVER, new efforts are being paid for by Comcast to go straight to Tru2way on new more capable box hardware with the new NDS middleware stack. No release date has been set that I know of, we will just have to see what develops. Cox decided to go with off the shelf TiVo DVRs the customer can buy at retail. So they aren't waiting for Tru2way to finally get done.

    Virgin in Great Britain is not small
    Ono in Spain is not as small as these companies you are referencing.
    The Swedish DBS company I forget the name of is bigger too.
    RCN and Suddenlink could continue buying Motorola and Cisco cable boxes, nothing is preventing them from doing so. They chose TiVo instead.
    Cox is not small and they plan to allow their VOD to work on TiVo boxes customers buy at retail. They will even do the cable card and Tuning Adapter installs for free. That is supposed to happen sometime this winter, lets see if it gets held up for the litigation as you suggest it will.
     
  20. ZeoTiVo

    ZeoTiVo I can't explain

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    first of all - that is not obvious. Comcast insisted on using its in place motorolla hardware, which is just not capable of running decent DVR software. You were schooled on DirectTV and what it is up to in another post - had nothing to do with lawsuit.

    secondly why are you changing away from -
    are you conceding you were simply wrong about that?


    Note - of course AT&T and Verizon and TiVo itself are waiting on this outcome to dive in deeper on the other pending suits. It would be foolish not to.
     

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