New box comment in Tivo quarterly report

I guess we could look at this as an official statement that the DTivo is actually going to happen. They've at least painted themselves into that corner by saying this (I still predict a launch date of December 23, 2012). The only question remaining is will it live up to what people expect, or will it not really be anything special or revolutionary. My guess would lean more towards evolutionary instead, but not significantly so.

 

Gee, "next year" is a rather wide window. I was hoping for a more specific date.

 

Plan on late December and be surprised when it comes out on Halloween.

 

Advertisements

But 2012 is not next year (nor is it the year after).

 

True but based on the Comcast TiVo it's not a bad prediction.

 

I highly doubt that it will be released on a Sunday.

 

Yeah, I think TyroneShoes' prediction was tongue-in-cheek. That date is two days after the supposed "Mayan End Of The World" scenario.

 

Or they mean their fiscal year, which ends Jan 31, 2011.

 

As someone who does this as a career, I can tell you that the quarterly conference calls are usually incredibly accurate in terms of information. When dealing with the analysts, this is not the place for rhetoric and speculation and companies are very careful not to mislead (even unintentionally) those who rate and follow their stock. I strongly suspect TIVO will deliver; it's just a matter of when.

Additionally, if the plan were to deliver in the first half of the year, or anytime soon, they'd be promoting it heavily in their analysts discussions. After all, people buy stock based on the future and anything exciting in the short term is typically promoted for the obvious reasons. Simply put, if were a near term deal, they'd say so....Something like "first half of 10" and etc. Since they don't say, I would speculate that it's late 2010. However, they don't want to come right out and say so, and instead want to dangle the carrot.

 

Cutty, I suspect you're correct. If it were still on track for early 2010, they would have been more bullish in their analyst call. I fear it's still slipping, so that's why they just said "2010" without anything more specific. Too bad.

 

That would certainly explain why the HD DVR+ appeared on the scene a year before the software was actually viable--they set a date (an unmeetable impractical one at that) and then had to deliver. Too bad the software delivered about 3 or 4 quarters later (water the bridge--the HR2x is OK now, and all is well).

But that leads into the question of whether the Tivo will deliver on the promise, or will it be the same old box, and will it even be viable for the first 6 months.

 

<Crosses Fingers>

 

I'm not sure if it will be some knock your socks off new technology that blows techies away, but I feel quite sure it will be a solid TIVO device that restores many of the lost options with DTV models. And potentially most importantly, it will work as designed and be very stable...A huge upside to those early HR units.

I could be wrong, but I'd be surprised if it were the first half of 2010....or TIVO would have said so. Clearly, if this was the plan, they'd try to generate some excitement via their financial update(s) (to the analysts).

It wouldn't surprise me if it's less of a TIVO technology issue and more of a DTV financial issue....i.e. DTV is stalling. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I think the re-emergence of the TIVO / DTV relationship has more to do with the DISH lawsuit than DTV wishing to promote the value of a TIVO partnership. Could DTV possibly be waiting out an appeal (by Dish) while throwing TIVO a bone?

Something to think about.

 

Honestly this whole new Tivo/DirecTV receiver was just a side deal in the greater contract renewal which includes a "no sue" clause. DirecTV finally said "fine, if you think your box is so great and everyone will switch then prove it. Build one, we'll pass all the costs along to the customer instead of subsidizing it as in the past".

No lose situation for DirecTV. If it fails or never comes to market DirecTV doesn't lose a thing other then some up front development money to Tivo and DirecTV still gets what they really want, support extension and can't be sued by Tivo. If it does come to market and is a great success then DirecTV wins as well, more money for them. So why not let Tivo make an attempt? They can't lose. Tivo however has a *lot* to lose if they never bring it to market or it's not a huge success.

 

Directv had to renew the contract or shutdown a million active Directivo's. I don't believe Tivo is "building a box." I think it will run on the new HR24 that Directv is building. Tivo is just writing software to work with it. Until Directv has the box ready and their own software ready, the box will not be released.

 

TiVo dangled the carrot in the 10-31-08 3Q09 conference call:

"We also recently announced a new agreement with DirecTV, a partner with which we have had a very successful history. Expected in the second half of next year, DirecTV will market a version of TiVo built on DirecTV’s broadband enabled HD DVR platform, allowing DirecTV customers to use a TiVo DVR with all of DirecTV’s high definition programming."

 

Sort of a moot point, since what is important is how it performs, rather than whose platform it is. Customers don't watch their DVRs, they watch what comes out of the back of them. I don't care if it endorses Adolf Hitler or is badged as a "Jeffrey Dahmer" model Tivo, as long as it delivers.

One thing I think they should do, simply to take the focus off of how similar it will probably be feature-wise or performance-wise to what is already available, is overbuild enough HP into it to allow 3 simultaneous recordings, and to also keep it snappy and not bogged down, performance-wise. 3 recording paths is the kind of sizzle they need to set it apart from garden-variety DVRs, all of which can do dual recording by now. If they dazzle us with a whiz-bang feature like that, it will go a long way towards forgiving whatever faults the new box has, and will elevate it into the premium category and give it an image of being revolutionary, even if it really isn't.

So if they have that sort of idea, maybe the point isn't moot after all, because to do that they need the hardware to have that capability, and if its just a Tivo port to existing hardware, more HP is probably not on the menu.

The other "killer app" feature I would like to see is a common playlist. IOW, If I have more than one DVR networked at GB speed, they should share a common single playlist, and allow viewing of any program on either DVR to stream to the other at playback, as if it were actually on that DVR. My problem with 4 DVRs is "where is that program recorded?" and "what room do I have to be in to watch it" (not really-all in one room, but otherwise a common problem for many).

We all know that is the future of DVRs, at least until local storage is replaced with VOD. It's time for Tivo to take the lead and take us there, and this would be the perfect opportunity.

 

I think your posts have been astute and mostly right-on. But this sounds like wishful thinking more than something I feel sure about.

I lost faith in Tivo (but never really fell out of love ) when they bungled the DTivo software up rev from v3.1.5 to v6.0, which broke more than it fixed. Up until that point they were gods who could do no wrong in a universe of otherwise bumbling DVR programmers. But that fiasco revealed that they were just as capable of screwing the pooch as is anyone else.

And they never completely fixed it. There are folks today who still have nag screens saying "its been 1473 days since an update..." who will not allow v6.x, and for very good reason. I am one of them. I allowed one HR10 to up rev in good faith that Tivo could do no wrong, but FFX1 and slo-mo are still broken for CBS and NBC on that one, while the one at 3.1.5 handles it just fine. The one at v6.4 also spontaneously reboots more often.

 

If the hardware did support 3 simultaneous recordings then the Directv version would also support 3 simultaneous recordings so where is the Tivo advantage? But since it would require 3 SAT tuners that seems unlikely.

I have the same problem with mutliple DVR's. With a wife and 2 kids my problem is always which DVR will I get to watch tonight and what shows do I have recorded on IT.