My Personal Series 3 Math

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by Sethb, Sep 19, 2006.

  1. lessd

    lessd Well-Known Member

    Jan 23, 2005


    As I said in post #8 its not the price for me anyways (may be for some) but the lack of MRV and CC risk that stopping me for now. The VCR analogy is not fair as the Cable Co never offered a Cable Box with a VCR built in. The issue for TiVo is competing with a Cable Co DVR that has an unlimited on sight warranty and free hardware upgrades. Their DVR has less risk then a Cell phone where I have to sign up for two years as I can dump the cable DVR at anytime without incurring any cost. For now I can get the job done with the three boxes I have until the Series 3 can replace what I have now. (see post #8)
  2. ZeoTiVo

    ZeoTiVo I can't explain

    Jan 2, 2004
    driving is not new technology either. the analogy isa good one.
    now I as well am not the target market for the S3 at 800$. But they have executed on the 800$ price by selling all the S3 they planned to sell.

    I expect the price to drop as well and 400 to 500$ is my buy in price. In the meantime, good on TiVo to actually make some profit right out of the gate for once. may it susidize the work to fix up 7.3.1 adn then add some more cool usability to my TiVo
  3. Stephen Tu

    Stephen Tu Well-Known Member

    May 10, 1999
    I think so. When you bought your expensive VCR, presumably other comparable VCRs of that era were around same price. You wouldn't pay $800 for std VHS VCR today would you? Tivo S3 is different, other comparable HDDVR available much cheaper. Prices should be compared based on features and price of similar competition of same timeframe, if available. Not based on percentage of other equipment costs or what things used to cost, that doesn't make any sense. It only makes sense to pay "Early adopter" penalty when there is no competition available yet. Tivo is too late for this, the cable DVRs have already been out for several years. If S3 came out 3-4 years ago then maybe one could justify this price. But back then no cablecards, and Tivo probably wanted more than cable companies willing to give, so they were frozen out of cable HD-DVR market. Only now with Comcast/Cox deals are they getting back in, I hope not too late for the company.

    Tivo is $800, cable company DVR is $0. Monthly fees for cable company usually cheaper also, though this may flip if you have existing Tivos & can get lifetime transfers / MSD etc. Tivo is an upgrade, but worth $800? Only to a few, depends how bad your particular cable DVR is & how much value you place on being able to avoid those faults.
  4. ChuckyBox

    ChuckyBox New Member

    Oct 3, 2005
    I'm not sure why you thought this deserved a new thread, given that there are about twenty others in which people make the exact same argument. But that point aside, TiVo seems to be selling these things just fine at this price, considering that Best Buy is now out of stock, and a CSR told me today that had them on backorder (though I think that's just their passive-aggressive way of dealing with customers who want information). In any event, the price of this thing, like so many other things, is going to respond to the law of supply and demand. Right now, supply is short and demand is high. In a few months, the supply will be greater, relative to the demand, and the price will adjust accordingly to keep things in balance. At some point, TiVo may even subsidize the box to get new subs, as it does with the S2. But it may never get to the point where you are willing to buy one.

    I can understand being disappointed that the price point isn't where you would like it, but it doesn't really follow that the box is mispriced or that they won't meet their sales targets.
  5. Crrink

    Crrink Active Member

    Sep 2, 2002
    Austin, TX


    Unreasonable? No, but would you have bought that first VCR if you could've gotten one from the cable company for free?
    Granted (to take your analogy one step further), the cableco VCR is a tad harder to program, and the tapes can only record 4 hours at SLP, but still, free is a lot cheaper than 50% the cost of the TV:)

    Like lessd posted, it's not the $800 price tag that is holding me back, it's the lack of MRV. If I have to keep a S2 in my main A/V rig anyway, I might as well keep the cableco DVR I have been using for the last 2 years and hold on to my $800 until more features are added, the price comes down, or both.
  6. MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

    Jan 10, 2002
    good points, but i think price is not such an accurate term. I know the business buzz phrase is "value" and I think that's the thing.

    What is the value of the current feature set to anyone? Theory is features, risk, price are all really related into what is called value. If you can eat at a steak house for $12 you think it's a great deal , if it costs you $12 to eat a meal at McDonalds you are pissed.

    MRV and CC concerns are fairly significant- but if the price was $99 would you take the gamble? Many many more likely wood, since most would find HD tuning worth 99 without much else.

    So it's all related.

    For the current feature set and price point I'm only in for 1. If it was cablecard 2.0 and MRV was all fixed up, then I might hope on a second even at 800. But without that, I dont know what my price point is for #2. I'm sure I'll know it when tivo gets there, but for now it's too complex for me to put a number to.
  7. MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

    Jan 10, 2002
    there's hundreds of differnet cell phones. THey all basically make calls, have a phone buck, most now come with internet broasing and text messaging, etc , etc.

    You can get a free one from any carrier, yet everytime a new phone comes out people line up to pay hundreds for it.

    How much did the Razr cost at firs? was it $399? Now they are free.

    Analogies are easy to pick apart, but there are tons of businesses that have widely varrying prices for pruducts. Cell phones and air line tickets come to my mind right away.

    Anyway as has been posted over and over- TIVo can't keep up with demand at this momey for $800 so that price makes sense for now. And the price will drop over time.
  8. MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

    Jan 10, 2002
    bery well said.

    I wish I could speak (or type) so elequently...
  9. mattack

    mattack Well-Known Member

    Apr 9, 2001
    Since the monthly fee (not the hardware fee) was a large part of your complaint, you
    do realize you can transfer the lifetime subscription (for $200) until the end of the year,

    I realize that makes it $1000 instead of $800, which seems to make it an even harder choice. But part of your argument was monthly cost.

    Plus, since you have single tuner S2s, one S3 essentially replaces 2 of them, from a tuner point of view (not a watch on different TVs point of view).
  10. lessd

    lessd Well-Known Member

    Jan 23, 2005
    If the Series 3 were $0 in cost but I had to replace my 2 Series 2 units and my Moto 3412 with it I would not do it because of MRV and CC hassle, BUT if the Cable Co did not have a HD DVR I would pay $1000 or more for a Series 3 now and give up MRV as I want to record HD. (Actually if the Cable Co did not have an HD DVR I would not have gotten a HDTV until the Series 3 came out MRV or not).
  11. reh523

    reh523 New Member

    Feb 27, 2006
    Phoenix, AZ
    $2000 for a HDTV you could say that. Like saying a new car will cost you $35,499. Some do but a lot don't.....

    I paid 780 for a 32" LCD
  12. lessd

    lessd Well-Known Member

    Jan 23, 2005
    From my post #8 on this there is another hassle of copy protection getting into the Series 3 by Cable Co error BUT its still a hassle if it happens to you. See here
  13. TiVoPony

    TiVoPony New Member

    May 11, 2002
    I'll add anecdotally that while demo'ing the system at the CEDIA trade show last week, not a single person squawked when I told them the price. Not a one. It was not an issue, they thought the price was just fine.

    Different market segments. S3 is targeted as a premium product, and the pricing and specs reflect that.

  14. smak

    smak TV MA SLV

    Feb 11, 2000
    NoHo, CA USA
    Seriously, do we all get our own threads?

    I think i'll ask David if he can just create 50,000 individual boards, so we can have one that has our name on it, so we can post whatever thoughts come to mind.

  15. TiVoPhish

    TiVoPhish New Member

    Mar 12, 2003
    Long Island, NY
    Seth, I agree with you.

    My initial move away from TiVo came when I got tired of waiting for them to get into the HD game. I was an early adopter too... series 1 bought in 99 and our first HDTV in 2001. As the years ticked on by, I got tired of waiting for the TiVo to fulfill it's promised HD solution.

    S2 got moved into a room where it's barely needed and the SA8300hd went to the primary TV.

    TiVo is clearly the better product, but the 8300 is good enough. It does what I want. And now that S3 was released missing some "typical" TiVo features, it really became something I couldn't have at the top of my toy list. I did the math, and it would take me almost six year of making my monthly payments to cable for their box to add up to the cost of the new S3 + service.... and no doubt, in the next six years new boxes will come out, including new TiVos -- It's lifespan is clearly shorter than six years.

    It's not a money thing as-in I can't afford it. It's a money thing in the sense of it's value for it's price. There aren't enough features/bonuses to make me spend an outlay of $800. There's other considerations as well (future compatibility issues for example), which only detract further from it's value. I'm also not even completely sure we're going to stay with Cable (I'm personally excited about FiOS getting to my area, but I've also had satellite and still think about going back to it).

    I want my TiVo back for sure... but I'll hold out until it's cheaper and be watching the market closely for alternatives. A few years ago I sounded like a TiVo commercial to my friends... I wish I could say that was still the case.
  16. bicker

    bicker bUU

    Nov 9, 2003
    ... or ever, if the experts are to be believed. That's the elephant in the room that folks keep trying to gloss over.
  17. bicker

    bicker bUU

    Nov 9, 2003
    That's a good summary, but that TiVo + is also a Cable DVR + -- it also eliminates the extra boxes and cable clutter, being a single unit that feeds directly into the television.

    Interface/Interface - TiVo wins
    Outlay/Outlay - Cable DVR wins
    Cable Card/On Demand - Cable DVR wins
    Warranty/No Questions Asked Replacement - Cable DVR wins
  18. lessd

    lessd Well-Known Member

    Jan 23, 2005

    MRV -a draw
    Copy flag errors by Cable Co- Cable wins as some S 3 users are already reporting this type of hassle on the Series 3 part of this form.
    I am in Hartford CT CC may not work at this point see here
  19. bidger

    bidger Active Member

    Mar 30, 2001
    Elmira, NY
    Sure Pony, but the people that attend that kind of event are your target audience.
  20. BobCamp1

    BobCamp1 Well-Known Member

    May 15, 2002
    Verizon FIOS wins -- does that count? Currently it's only SD, bu they plan to add HD later.

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