Mad as Hell & not going to take it anymore, Redux!!

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Boy oh boy do you ever need a course in statistics Claiming that D*'s dvr is a total success just because D* is growing is so far off base that it's laughable.

The only numbers that I've seen relating to the success of the D* dvr has been from polls comparing various dvr's. In all of those that are neutral in their wording, Tivo is always the winner - even on the fan-boy dbstalk forum.

One poll I saw showed Tivo had a 3 to 1 higher acceptance level then the D* dvr, and the FIOS dvr was well below that.

In fact all the numbers show is that FIOS and D* are attracting customers - probably because of the HD channels, and in spite of the dvrs.

Your conclusion is like Microsoft saying that Vista is a total success because they are selling huge numbers, when in fact once again it's just the opposite. Vista has huge numbers because it is installed on new computers and the customer has no choice. In fact, their rack sales and business sales are lagging - people won't use if given the choice - the same as Tivo vs the other dvrs.

 

??? What are you talking about. Fact: DirecTV's churn is very low despite going away from TiVo. Fact: DirecTV's numbers are growing.

That just shows that people like TiVo better than the DirecTV DVR. The fact is that the HD DVR by DirecTV is good enough to keep customers from switching. It is perfectly fine for me. I would like to have a TiVo option but I doubt I would pay more to get it because the DirecTV's DVR works just fine.

Take a look at the poll taken in the Happy Hour regarding getting a content provider for a particular individual. Despite the only DVR offered by DirecTV not being a TiVo nearly 3/4 of the members voted that she should go with DirecTV. I find that amazing on a TiVo forum and it shows that DirecTVs DVR is more than good enough.

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=386953&highlight=directv

Possibly but I would say that is still a success for D* and if their DVR was as bad as you claim many more people would jump ship. Sure some people, like yourself, have left D* due to the DVR but you are in the minority and are washed out by the many more who have come or stayed for the HD channels and the good enough DVR.

 

Statistics = what do you want the answer to show?

You have a bad habit of agreeing with the "polls" that prove your point and saying that the "poll"s that disprove your points are incorrect and invalid. So statiscally your can be considered to be correct in some form or the other

 

No, I have a good habit of understanding how the wording on a poll can reflect it's outcome - such as 'do you still beat your wife? y/n' huh? That's how wording can impact the results.

There were a couple of polls on the dbstalk forum:
"If the HR10-250 TIVO had mpeg4 HD would you prefer it to the HR20-700?". This is a straight-forward unbiased poll, especially when you consider where it was being asked.

Another poll on CNET or some other tech site asked something to the effect of 'which dvr do you prefer?' and then listed all of the dvrs - Tivo was the choice by 3 to 1 over the nearest competitor.

Those results are much more meaningful than trying to derive a conclusion based on net increases of customers. There is absolutely no correlation at all to the 'success' and 'acceptance' of a dvr, because both D* and FIOS offer one in-house dvr.

The conclusions I draw are more factual-based then the insinuations that you guys are making.

 

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You are once again drawing invalid conclusions based on some numbers. Think about, D* is not advertising their dvr - in fact I don't even think I've ever seen it in an ad, but I skip through ads, so perhaps they do. So, if D* doesn't advertise their dvr, how can you possibly draw a conclusion that the net growth of 200K plus is due to their dvr?

Secondly, how does churn relate to this discussion when D* has such an expensive ETF? Most customers aren't even close to the end of their ETF, and only when they are in significant numbers would we be able to conclude anything.

The survey you reference is a perfect example of of using numbers to back up a statement when the poll doesn't reflect the topic at hand. This poll never once mentioned Tivo - it didn't say "should I give up my Tivo and..." or "do you prefer the D* dvr or the E* dvr over Tivo?" Instead, the poll talked about services.


The only valid conclusion that one can make is that D* is growing because of HD and that is all you can conclude. To make any conclusions regarding the acceptance of the D* dvr using growth or other numbers is just an improper use of the facts.

 

Of course all those polls are saying is that among those who have used Tivo, they would prefer to keep using Tivo. Wow, big deal when you consider Tivo barely has 10% of the DVR market and that includes the DirecTivo's still in service. In other words to companies like DirecTV or Dish the poll in meaningless. Both have more customers on their own DVR platform then all of the Tivo platforms combined. And growing. They must be doing something right. Or just good enough anyway.

 

You do realize that the first R15 subs have been off their commitments for nearly a year now, right? I'd think we'd be seeing some effect of that terrible DVR in lost subs by now wouldn't you?

First HR20 subs come off commitment starting next month. Let's see what happens the next couple quarters. And if people were finding it that bad with only a few month left on the ETF they could just pay it for the cost of one month's programming fee if they wanted to get out that bad.

If the DVR was really that bad they wouldn't be growing. Either that or as has been pointed out over and over, the vast majority of people care about the content (i.e. HD) over what the DVR is. So what if Tivo is better? People just don't care. They want their channels and will take whatever is given them as a DVR. So if the real motivation of DirecTV was to save money (which you and others claim, they were greedy) then I guess they made the right call. With all the problems I see posted in the Comcast Tivo forum maybe Comcast made the wrong call by going with Tivo.

 

What the polls show is what I have been saying all along - D* has turned away from the highest-rated dvr to something that is now considered second or third best. No matter how much you and others rave about the D* dvr, the numbers are just not with you when their dvr is compared to the Tivo.

The net is that the majority of former Tivo owners who stayed with D* are settling for second best - i.e. - a lesser valued product then what they had.

What is wrong with someone on a Tivo forum pointing out using real numbers how Tivo is considered to be the top dog?

It's quite clear that you and the others that spend so much time on here are D* fanboys or perhaps 'encouraged' to be here. I really question what your motive is - you've dragged about as many Tivo owners as you can to a second-rated box.

The reality is that if all things were equal and D* did not have HD, they would not be growing at all. We all know that a very tiny number of new subs are signing up for their dvr. My suggestion is to go tout your second-rated box on forums where people enjoy that kind of thing. This is a Tivo forum and that means that most of the folks here care about the dvr.

Oh BTW, how's that DLB feature working out? I know D* cares about you so much that they must be working really hard to get that working... maybe by MPEG9

 

Again, what is your point? So what if it's 2nd or 3rd "best" in the eyes of former Tivo owners. Do you think that for one minute that means anything to DirecTV if it their DVR continues to sell? Do the people who have it even care? If they don't care it's like the saying if a tree falls and no one sees it, did it really fall?

I mean most people would probably rank iTunes as and the iPod as the #1 rated music service and player. So is it bad or being a "fanboy" if someone where to like the Rhapsody service/player or Zune service/player better? Come on now, I think you are smarter then that.

Just because something is 2nd or 3rd rated doesn't mean it's *bad*. Again, you should be smarter then that unless I give you a lot more credit.

Absolutely nothing. But the numbers are self evident. Gee, Tivo users prefer Tivo. Film at 11. And they don't mean for one second that someone won't be happy with something other then Tivo. I might prefer a Mac and rank it #1 but I am perfectly happy using a PC or Linux instead. In fact the only reason I use a PC actually is because of my games which aren't available on Mac or Linux. Does that make me a PC fanboy? Hmmm, I use the DirecTV DVR because I prefer the channels on DirecTV. Does that make me a DirecTV fanboy? I make both my choices based on *content*. Maybe you don't, but I do.

Not at all. I could care less what anybody does. But to continually say that anything that isn't Tivo sucks is just short sited. And to not believe that anyone could actually be satisfied with a DVR that isn't Tivo is...well...just plain stupid. Again, I would think you're smarter then this.

First, we don't know if they would be growing or not without HD. They were growing just fine when they had 9 HD channels for years compared to Dish's advantage. And has *anyone* in the general public ever signed up with a service for the DVR? Very few. Most people didn't sign up with DirecTV because of Tivo. Sure, some on this forum did but come on, the public at large DOES NOT CARE. It's amazing that you can't understand that outside this little forum of a few thousand posters, people just don't know what Tivo is.

The only "touting" I've ever done is to point out that Tivo isn't everything and the DirecTV DVR does it's job...for me. It records my shows and I can watch them. I don't need anything more then that. I don't need a cute Tivo guy bouncing on the screen while I choose the program to watch. Honestly I'd be satisfied with the FIOS DVR if it did the same thing. If that's being a fanboy then I'm guilty.

Well, since I could care less about DLB it's working out just fine. Wife cares not for DLB either. Guess what, we don't watch Live TV. What a concept for using a DVR. If you can't live without DLB then there are other options for you. For me it's not even a top 20 item I care about thus I don't care.

And you might be happy to know that I am considering Uverse. It's in my city now but not in my area. As soon as available they will get an install in my home (mainly for the Internet) and if the TV portion and their DVR is up to snuff and I decide Sunday Ticket is just too much money and they offer me all the channels I need then I just might switch because it's cheaper. The DVR has nothing to do with this decision other then that their DVR needs to record my programs so that I can watch them.

Gee, what a simple DVR requirement. Tivo software not needed.

 

No - the polls you select are showing what YOU want to prove, anything else that does not walk the thin red line that coincides with your thoughts and beliefs are "worded wrong" or "in some way or form deficeint in your eyes".

As far as dlb, would not know, never used it on the HR10, nor the wish list, don;t miss it - btw how is the content on your HR10?

"we all know that a very tiny number of new subs are signing up for the dvr" - as a matter of verifiable fact, I do NOT know, do you have some reputable source that can prove this fact? Like a poll that is correctly worded in your eyes?

"this is a tivo forum" yup - and still have a Directv HR10 Tivo unit in use, but the thing is - don;t really care if it is a tivo, a HR2X or a drunk monkey with a video camera, they all record programs, it is the quality of the content that is the primary line.

/snore

 

I'd like to add just two little things that are apparently going over at least one person's head.

1) Polls. Polls on the forums are not reliable. They are indicators, but highly-flawed indicators, of imperfect questions and as such yield little information of value, especially in the area being currently discussed here. They are also highly skewed to those with a high technical expertise and also by age, gender, and class, and are far from representative of media content consumers in general. They are also only what those people say they will do or wish they could do, not what they or those unrepresented by the polls actually end up doing.

And what most people have actually done is given up the HR10, which was an extremely-impressive cutting-edge, reliable, user-friendly DVR in 2005 (and is now much-less reliable and much-less cutting edge) for the HD DVR, which is now THE cutting-edge DVR with equivalent expandability paths, better features, and of course, significantly better content selection with VOD, LIL HD, and CONUS MPEG-4 HD, all of which the venerable HR10 has never had and never will have.

2) Numbers. It is not about the numbers themselves, numbers are nothing more than numbers. It is about being able to accurately interpret the numbers regarding comparitive numbers for competitors and trends within the numbers (and interpret means interpret, not spin to fit an agenda) to accurately spot trends and truthfully indicate whether a company's direction is the proper, successful one, or the improper, unsuccessful one.

You don't have to be a Rhodes Scholar or have a degree in statistics to be able to interpret that the numbers show quite clearly that the HD DVR is a resounding success and was a very shrewd business move by DTV, whether you are a Tivo lover or not, or whether you were rooting for them to fail or not. The game is over, and they won.

There are things about the HR10 that will always be fondly remembered as being really super, and some features may never be matched, but the HD DVR is a true contender, and will obviously usurp the HR10 in time, if it hasn't already. The HR10 is well-loved, but it's time had come and gone, and thankfully, the successor is worthy of the throne (we were all genuinely pretty worried about that for a time).

The king is dead...long live the king.

 

i had cereal for breakfast

 

I'm not quite sure what you are referring to when you say HD DVR, but if you mean D*'s, you have absolutely no proof of that at all. All you can point to is that some clients have gotten a D* dvr, and are locked in for 2 years.

It's sort of like the robber who gets $200 from the store, but he doesn't get caught for 2 years. Was that success? Well, by your standards yes.

 

I have an HR20-700 that I own with no "lock in". Where would I fit in your statistics?

 

The statistics reported in their quarterly results is that well over 50% of all new subs get advanced products (HD and DVR).

Over 7 million of their 17 million subs now have advanced products.

By the way, their growth trend has been ongoing for a few years. HD is certainly help it stay strong but it's not like they were all that bad before they launched all the HD.

Look, you can make them look bad all you want (i.e. people not knowing what they are getting "stuck" in a commitment) but the numbers are the numbers. And has been pointed out I don't know how many times, the original R15 users have been off commitment for over a year. As bad as the R15 was at first you'd think there would be an exodus in the past year but nope, just the opposite.

I really don't know why you care, you're not even with DirecTV anymore. They are growing and most other providers are not. If the DVR was really that bad they would not be just by word of mouth.

 

It's pretty obvious to the rest of us that you are not quite sure what any of us are referring to at any time.

 

How'd you pull that off? I didn't think any of the HR20's were ever offered without being a lease.

 

You can buy an HR20/HR21 HD DVR without any lease commitment from DirecTV. Last time I checked it then costs ~$600 instead of $200.

 

Interesting, I hadn't heard that before.

 

Well that could be true - statements that were made about D* not growing a few years ago from the Tivo crowd recommendations is just not true. I've been on this forum for years and I remembering reading about how family and friends signed up for D* just because of Tivo. I haven't seen that kind of thing happening with D*'s new dvr.

Your implications that the D* dvr is successful and driving business just doesn't make sense. You don't have numbers pointing to how many people joined D* just because of the dvr. You're trying to correlate growth numbers with 'success'. In my mind, success means the dvr is adding business. You can't prove that.

The only thing the numbers prove is that D* is growing with a second-rate dvr, and that they used to sell the best.

As many folks point out and I agree, the dvr is not the overwhelming reason people pick a video service, so growth numbers have no direct relationship to the 'success' of the dvr.

But the fact remains that this is a Tivo forum. So, most of the folks here are used to the best. And my pointing out that they are moving to a second-rated box is more factually accurate than anything the rest of you are saying.

As I mentioned earlier, if you had taken a course in statistics, you would realize that polls can be constructed to be neutral and therefore achieve valid results. The polls that I have referenced many times fall in that category. And they are the only accurate measurement I've seen to date.

D* has a closed market. If someone becomes a sub and wants an HD dvr, they must get the one and only box offered. Is that generating new business for D* like the Tivo clearly did? Based on the facts, I sort of doubt it.