Jay Leno is killing NBC

Discussion in 'Now Playing - TV Show Talk' started by Turtleboy, Oct 8, 2009.

  1. Lori

    Lori Social Defective

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    Because he was an old man, and he didn't want to start over. That is not the same as being OK with your friend's agent publicly humiliating you by calling for you to retire (so her client can have your job).

    Left to his own devices, I would imagine that Carson would have worked another six months, maybe a year. That's where Helen screwed up. She just got too impatient. He would have left soon anyway...just with a lot less bad blood.
     
  2. IJustLikeTivo

    IJustLikeTivo Active Member

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    Let's be honest, all these guys have ginormous egos. You would too if people paid you 30-40 million per year.

    On a business level Leno at 10 made money. NO doubt about that. Did they see the affiliate problem coming? It appears not. And, regardless of how we see this in hindsight, these guys have much much more information at hand than we do. And lots more understanding of the business. I'd like to see a posting at TCF or online when Leno at 10 started saying that the affiliates were going to go nuts. If they didn't see it coming, I doubt anyone else did.
     
  3. JYoung

    JYoung Series 3

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    This, I agree with 100%.
     
  4. JYoung

    JYoung Series 3

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    Earlier in this thread, I think (or another Leno thread), there was an article on how the Boston NBC affiliate was going ballistic over the original Leno move to 10 PM saying that it would cut into the local news revenue profits.

    I think they did expect the local affiliates would take a hit ratings wise, but I suspect they didn't think it would be as bad as it turned out to be.

    Also, NBC is in the "move fast" mentality most likely due to the Comcast merger.
     
  5. Lori

    Lori Social Defective

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    How 'bout this:


    http://tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=7236656#post7236656

    Or this:

    http://tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=7184244#post7184244
     
  6. mbklein

    mbklein Foreign Contaminant

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    Nicely predicted, LoadStar. :up:
     
  7. Rob Helmerichs

    Rob Helmerichs I am Groot! TCF Club

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    Not to denigrate Load's psychic abilities, but all that means is he was reading the newspapers at the time. It was widely reported that the affiliates feared a loss in their news shows' ratings. And in fact he noted coverage of the Boston affiliate's concerns.
     
  8. IJustLikeTivo

    IJustLikeTivo Active Member

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    Interesting. I didn't see that the first time.

    It's not quite the whole story that's being argued now though. I don't think anyone expected that to have an effect on Conan's ratings to the extent some predict it has. OTOH, 10 at NBC has been week forever and Jay still got better ratings. So complicated.

    The real issue is that, if they had seen this possible decline, why did they discount it? Did they really think of it and ignore it or just not care? I'd love to have the minutes from the meetings where this was decided.
     
  9. IJustLikeTivo

    IJustLikeTivo Active Member

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    +1. I don't think I read that thread before.
     
  10. Rob Helmerichs

    Rob Helmerichs I am Groot! TCF Club

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    Apparently, they thought the decline would be such that the affiliates would be manageable.
     
  11. morac

    morac Cat God TCF Club

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    I think NBC is correct in this instance. The Internet tends to be fickle and doesn't tend to remain focuses on a single topic for very long. My prediction is that come September there will be very few, if any, friends of CoCo left. There certainly won't be any rallies.
     
  12. terpfan1980

    terpfan1980 It's Just TV TCF Club

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    That really all depends upon how quickly Conan gets signed (if he is signed) to another network and how much promotional work they do on his behalf (assuming that he can't do any promo work or make any appearances until after the non-compete period is up).

    If FOX starts airing Coco is coming in another 210 days and counting commercials it'll keep him (and them) in the front of people's minds. They can certainly hold some rallies, maybe some contests for tickets to the first show, and other things that will 'go viral' and enjoy the fruits of some relatively cheap publicity.
     
  13. DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    I think those who truly like Conan will follow him whereever he goes. The problem is that number is somewhere in the neighborhood of one million people. He averaged about 2.5 million viewers per night while on The Tonight Show, and you have to figure that a good percentage of those were just there out of habit or because they watched their local news on NBC. Many of those were likely Leno fans before he left Tonight and will revert back to Leno once he resumes that role.

    In addition, if Conan moves to Fox, I think it will be quite a while before all Fox affiliates are mandated to carry the network's late-night show. Many of them likely have contracts to run syndicated programming, and given the current state of the economy, it's unlikely that Fox will force the affiliates to breach such contracts and/or give up lucrative local programming without some sort of transition period.

    Thus, if Conan starts on Fox in September, he's unlikely to be competitive with Leno and Letterman, from a ratings perspective, for at least a year, just due to the fact that it will take a long time before his show is available to the whole country.
     
  14. terpfan1980

    terpfan1980 It's Just TV TCF Club

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    Assuming Conan winds up at FOX, besides the issue with getting the FOX affiliates on board with running his show at night (which might hinge upon whether or not the network agrees to let some affil's run him at 11:30 rather than 11 which is the start of the network's window for their late night schedule) there's also the problem of getting guests on the show which might itself hinge a bit upon where they try to run the show out of (New York vs. L.A.)

    And of course the other networks are going to be doing everything they can to try to keep the best guests from running off to Conan which could make things very interesting. Certainly FOX could require anyone starring in a FOX motion picture or TV show to appear primarily on their own late night show but then NBC could do the same with Universal's films and stars.
     
  15. smak

    smak TV MA SLV

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    NBC didn't have to offer the job to Conan, and Leno didn't have to accept NBC retiring him in 5 years.

    Do you see something wrong with Conan wanting to advance in his chosen profession?

    That is everybody's right, in any profession.

    I really don't see a problem with what Conan did. He said, he really would like to do the Tonight Show by a certain time. And if NBC said no, I'm sure he would have said ok, at the end of my next contract I may go leave.

    Something that happens all the time in the industry.

    What doesn't happen all the time in the industry is for a 55 year old staple of television to be moved back 1/2 hour to allow an extremely similar show to be inserted right before it, taking away all it's thunder.

    -smak-
     
  16. DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    I'm not sure how what you wrote was in reply to the post of mine that you quoted.

    I agree that Conan had every right to try and improve his position. There's nothing wrong with him asking for The Tonight Show gig. Like you said, he has a right to try and excel at his chosen profession.

    But by that same token, there's also nothing wrong with Leno wanting to stay at the top of his chosen profession, which until 2009 was The Tonight Show. When NBC offered him the 10 pm show, that became the new pinnacle of his profession, because if a talk-show host could succeed in primetime, that would be even bigger than late night. Unfortunately for everyone involved, that experiment didn't work and it turned out to be the exact opposite of the pinnacle of Leno's profession.

    So Leno still wanted to be at the top of his profession, and NBC was still paying him like a top-of-the-profession guy, and just like there was nothing wrong with Conan wanting the Tonight Show gig, there was also nothing wrong with Leno being unhappy that he was forced out of that gig.

    NBC was paying two guys to be at the pinnacle of their profession, but they both had the same profession and there was only room for one guy at the top of that mountain. NBC tried to flatten the mountaintop out a little and make room for both of them, but it didn't work out, so NBC chose the one they had more confidence in.
     
  17. murgatroyd

    murgatroyd Don't stop believin'

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    I agree, except that I would have mentioned a different body part. :p

    Jan
     
  18. dswallow

    dswallow Save the ModeratŠ¾r TCF Club

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    She was being nice and giving the benefit of the doubt by mentioning their longest body part.
     
  19. Frank_M

    Frank_M New Member

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    It's funny to me that, in the end, NBC is always the one who creates rivals to itself. And they're simply doing it again.

    Say what you will, but those of us who watched Carson know he was brilliant. He had an edge, but not an ego (at least not on air) and that show was a TV legend. And NBC ruled that time slot. There was no rival.

    Carson hand-picked Letterman as his replacement. He was so similar to Carson in many ways, but just younger and edgier. They let him grow in his late night spot, and if they'd just let Letterman take over... there would still, I believe, just be the Tonight Show... and no real competitor.

    But they drove Dave away, and now, suddenly the late night empire was split into two. Did Jay beat Dave in the ratings? Yes. But anyone who watches both shows knows that Dave is the true flag bearer for the show Carson was putting on. Jay's brand of "funny" is safe and forgettable.

    But NBC, god bless them, did find someone else to groom. Conan. Again...kind of edgy, different. And they let him grow. And he was rightly in line for the Tonight Show. And if they'd let him do it.. just left him there, he would have been the gold standard again. Dave isn't going to go on forever, so soon Conan's Tonight Show would again have it all.

    But now, NBC has shoved him out... and he'll create a third franchise... this time at Fox. And NBC will bring back toothless Jay for a while...and again, the brand that was the Tonight Show gets eaten away.

    It's sad.

    I'm a Letterman fan, and I'll watch him until he retires. But when he is done, there's no question in my mind that Conan is the future standard bearer for what late night TV was, is and should be.

    And NBC could have avoided all of this. Twice.
     
  20. Amnesia

    Amnesia The Question

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    I'm not sure what you mean by that. Jay and Johnny both strike me as "safe" compared to Dave's mean-spiritedness. IMO, Jay is much more the "flag bearer". After all, his version of The Tonight Show wasn't that different from how he was as Johnny's guest host.
     

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