Jay Leno is killing NBC

Discussion in 'Now Playing - TV Show Talk' started by Turtleboy, Oct 8, 2009.

  1. Oct 13, 2009 #101 of 2005
    ronsch

    ronsch Active Member

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    My guess is that they were expecting the Tonight Show ratings in the all-important 18-49 demographic to go up with a younger, supposedly hipper host. That hasn't happened either....
     
  2. Oct 13, 2009 #102 of 2005
    bicker

    bicker bUU

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    Yeah, but that has nothing to do with putting Leno at 10PM. The genesis of the Conan decision goes back many years. You wanna ***** about that, I won't say boo, because I just don't care about late-night enough.
     
  3. Oct 13, 2009 #103 of 2005
    IndyJones1023

    IndyJones1023 Auteur

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    None right now. But you find truth in extremes.

    NBC viewership is declining. Which leads to advertisers bailing, seeking out lots of viewers instead. Loss of advertisers means loss of revenue which impact profitability which hurts the stockholders which can lead to the company going under.

    This is all common sense stuff.
     
  4. Oct 13, 2009 #104 of 2005
    aindik

    aindik Well-Known Member

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    Revenue is only half of the profit equation.
     
  5. Oct 13, 2009 #105 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    Couple of responses here: First, the NFL doesn't care what network their games air on. The games are the draw, not the network they are airing on. So as long as the NFL gets their money from the network, that's what they care about. The networks use the NFL for publicity, not the other way around.

    Second, most TV pilots are produced by production companies and are then pitched to the various networks. While it's true that each of the networks own their own production companies, it doesn't necessarily mean that a pilot produced by NBC's production company will end up on NBC. So it would be stupid for any actor to turn down potential work just because it might eventually air on NBC. The only way any actor would turn down work on NBC is if they're getting a better offer from one of the other networks.
    While I enjoyed "Earl" and saw every single episode, I don't think it was a bad decision to cancel it. The show had run its course and was getting stale. I was kind of relieved when it got the axe.
    I disagree that Southland was one of the better shows NBC had, and the ratings will back up my opinion.

    As to your point about whether they should have aired the episodes anyway, regardless of ratings, that's not always a cut-and-dried case. The network has already incurred the cost of production. That's a sunk cost they're not getting back either way. So now they have to make the decision solely on what will get better ratings between Southland, and whatever they choose to put on in its place (likely Dateline). For whatever reason, NBC feels that Dateline will give them better ratings, and less chance of having to refund money to advertisers, than Southland will.
     
  6. Oct 13, 2009 #106 of 2005
    IndyJones1023

    IndyJones1023 Auteur

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    I'll be the first to admit I'm no economist. So how do they make profit with no revenue?
     
  7. Oct 13, 2009 #107 of 2005
    bicker

    bicker bUU

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    Uh, you find falsehood in exaggerations and hyperbole.

    All OTA broadcast television viewership is declining.

    Also, advertisers bail because the value of commercial advertising, itself, even for the same given number of total viewers, is declining.

    (And so on...)

    There is a lot more going on than you're factoring into your analysis. For example, one of the reasons why all OTA broadcast television viewership is declining is because folks are turning to cable. Which raises this point: Recent News:
    Guess who owns Syfy?

    There is indeed some common sense in all this, but I believe you've missed most of it.
     
  8. Oct 13, 2009 #108 of 2005
    aindik

    aindik Well-Known Member

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    They don't.

    But they can make profit if revenue and costs are high, and they can make profit if revenue and costs are low. You don't always make more profit when revenues are highest. If you cut revenue, but you cut costs more, profit goes up.
     
  9. Oct 13, 2009 #109 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    Here's a good take on what's happening at NBC:

    http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/10/11/ny-times-is-the-jay-leno-show-hazardous-to-nbcs-health/30166

    The author dissects a recent NY Times article and admits that there is one show (SVU) that has been impacted by Leno, but the rest of the supposed "failure" is simply wishful thinking by those who hate Leno. The fact is that NBC is getting higher ratings with Leno on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays than they did in the same spots last season. Tuesdays, where SVU used to be, are lower, and Thursday, where ER used to be, are also lower. But ER is gone, so there's no guarantee that whatever was put in its place would be outdrawing Leno this season. So really, of the five nights Leno is on, it's only been a poor decision on one of those nights.
     
  10. Oct 13, 2009 #110 of 2005
    IndyJones1023

    IndyJones1023 Auteur

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    So, if they had the most viewers, that's what? Good or bad? Conversely, if they had no viewers, again, that's good or bad?

    Who, whoa there, Bernanke. I'm just spitballing here. I'm not analyzing anything.
     
  11. Oct 13, 2009 #111 of 2005
    bicker

    bicker bUU

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    Could you please come back to discussing the reality, with the rest of us?

    I'm Mrs. Krabappel, making you clean up the spitballs, Bart.
     
  12. Oct 13, 2009 #112 of 2005
    IndyJones1023

    IndyJones1023 Auteur

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    How did you come up with your screen name, anyway?
     
  13. Oct 13, 2009 #113 of 2005
    bicker

    bicker bUU

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    It is a family name.
     
  14. Oct 13, 2009 #114 of 2005
    wmcbrine

    wmcbrine Well-Known Mumbler

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    I think it deserved a proper ending, like Earl finishing the list. (In fact I can't think of another way to end it properly.)
     
  15. Oct 13, 2009 #115 of 2005
    Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey TCF Club

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    This. I wonder if NBC is hedging their bet on Conan somewhat by keeping Leno around in this capacity, and if Conan falls flat (which it looks like he might), then they already have Leno signed and they can move him back to late nights. Do you think NBC is worried about Conan jumping ship at this point? He's losing Leno's big lead to Letterman and if ABC was smart, they would put Kimmel directly opposite him now too (I personally think that Nightline has lost it's relevence now, but that's a discussion for another thread). I like Conan, but he's been a disaster for NBC at the Tonight Show. And btw, Ferguson is killing his competition at NBC now too (who's name escapes me).
     
  16. Oct 13, 2009 #116 of 2005
    lew

    lew Well-Known Member

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    Some of the major cities have affiliates which are are O&O. They can complain but there isn't any reason for NBC to listen. NBC has low ratings. I'm sure cities like Boston have other stations that might be interested in affiliating with NBC. I don't think NBC has any shot of persuading a fox affiliate into changing affiliation in smaller cities.

    I recall several affiliates not carrying NYPD Blue. You may know the answer, but I'm not sure if WHDH backed down because they're contractually required to carry Leno, because NBC persuaded them to give it a shot or if WHDH is required to provide some kind of notice if they're not going to carry a network show. Affiliates sometimes drop a network show so they can broadcast local sports. A few years ago WCBS carried some Yankee games during prime time.

    I guess it's not due to safe harbor rules but networks seem to have different standards for shows airing at 10p EST. At least some articles suggest NBC wanted Southland toned down for an earlier time slot.

    NBC renewed Southland but decided not to air any episodes. That suggests NBC's decisions aren't as perfect as you've been suggesting.

    I think we can agree the shows NBC are likely to air, if they cancel Leno, aren't going to be shows like ER or West Wing. I suspect the shows they'll air will be shows that are also cheap to produce. Reality shows. Game shows.

    I'm not sure about government regulations but splitting the difference may make some sense. Let the affiliates insert local news 10-10:30p. Run Leno 10:30-11:30, right before Conan. The affiliates will make money running local news in prime time. Leno will still start in prime time.



     
  17. Oct 13, 2009 #117 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    Actually, Nightline is getting better ratings than Conan now: http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/10/0...in-total-viewers-for-15th-straight-week/29950

    It's debatable whether Kimmel would be able to maintain that lead or not.
     
  18. Oct 13, 2009 #118 of 2005
    getreal

    getreal postcrastinator

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    I don't understand that logic. If Leno's show is a failure on NBC, how will it improve by moving to another network? The entire format and cast would need to be revamped in order to create a fresh identity, as this one is stale.
     
  19. Oct 13, 2009 #119 of 2005
    That Don Guy

    That Don Guy Now with more GB

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    The problem being, if he does finish the list and then another network or cable station (e.g. TBS) wants to pick up the show, they have to try some non-list gimmick - and didn't that backfire when they tried it on NBC (to the point where NBC made it a point to say, "The list is back!", when promoting the show's next (and final?) season)?

    "Ending a show properly" only works when the actors and producers pretty much all agree to end the show on their terms, rather than on the network's terms.

    -- Don
     
  20. Oct 13, 2009 #120 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    It's no more stale than late night shows have been for the last 50 years. If Leno jumped to ABC late night and put on the same show he did for 17 years at NBC, what would make anyone think he wouldn't get similar ratings to what he got on NBC?
     

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