Jay Leno is killing NBC

Discussion in 'Now Playing - TV Show Talk' started by Turtleboy, Oct 8, 2009.

  1. Oct 10, 2009 #61 of 2005
    marksman

    marksman ID-10-T

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    The whole move was a horrible one for lots of reasons that were obvious, and many more that weren't.

    They are bringing down every part of the network with this move it is amazing.

    I was thinking about it the other day and they hurt themselves with this from so many angles. Even just from an exposure standpoint.

    Say they have 5 1 hour dramas on that get 6 million viewers in those 5 nights each. 30 million viewers. Say those are 20 million distinct people. That means you can expose other network shows to 20 million different people.

    Take Leno, even if he got the same exact viewers on a nightly basis, 6 million, this may only consist of 8 or 9 million different people. In other words it is the same exact audience every night. Which means you can't leverage other shows.

    There is even some thought this will trickle down to the morning show eventually as people have their tv on a different channel when they turn it on in the morning.
     
  2. Oct 10, 2009 #62 of 2005
    marksman

    marksman ID-10-T

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    Thats not it though. The Tonight Show has always been a huge moneymaker for them and now is in the toilet as well. They are losing in all other areas because of this move. Financially it is not turning out to be a good idea. It is a disaster.
     
  3. Oct 10, 2009 #63 of 2005
    megory

    megory Advanced TiVoOligan

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    I think network TV is in for a total change. Cable affiliates and cable networks will do more and more of the new dramas. They're already overwhelmingly successful, and do it on a lower budget: Mad Men, Burn Notice, Drop Dead Diva, are a few that come to mind.
     
  4. Oct 11, 2009 #64 of 2005
    smak

    smak TV MA SLV

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    Vegas show...You remember Vegas. Some of us go every year. Like in December ;)

    -smak-
     
  5. Oct 11, 2009 #65 of 2005
    IndyJones1023

    IndyJones1023 Auteur

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    I've heard about this Vegas thing!
     
  6. Oct 11, 2009 #66 of 2005
    Turtleboy

    Turtleboy Well-Known Member TCF Club

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    Yeah, a bunch of us saw Jay Leno in Vegas last year (2 years ago?). Anyway, he was awful. He was doing "Bill Clinton is horny" jokes. He hadn't updated his act in 15 years.
     
  7. Oct 11, 2009 #67 of 2005
    Jesda

    Jesda CAPTAIN AWESOME

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    Without local news, I wouldn't know what the local high school football team was up to or what the latest elderly person is whining about.

    As for retirement, Jay never said he was going to, and he would be on another network if NBC didn't pounce.
     
  8. Oct 11, 2009 #68 of 2005
    dswallow

    dswallow Save the Moderatоr TCF Club

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    FOX wants to charge for it. Comcast wants to include it as part of their package to differentiate its services from other combo packages.
     
  9. Oct 11, 2009 #69 of 2005
    dswallow

    dswallow Save the Moderatоr TCF Club

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    Hopefully NBC's disaster is providing opportunity at other networks for 10pm dramas to do much better than if the audience were more fragmented.
     
  10. Oct 11, 2009 #70 of 2005
    MickeS

    MickeS Well-Known Member

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    Do you have any basis at all for these numbers?
     
  11. Oct 11, 2009 #71 of 2005
    MickeS

    MickeS Well-Known Member

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    ..and this? Any basis for this?
     
  12. Oct 12, 2009 #72 of 2005
    retrodog

    retrodog King Button Pusher

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    At the gun...
    You were supposed to be so blown away by the very fact that you got to see Jay Leno that all of this stuff wouldn't matter at all.

    I think he kind of sucks. And he has for quite a while. He has some decent writers on the show... at times, but he is pretty much awful. It's probably mostly the fact that he's just skating by on his own history.
     
  13. Oct 12, 2009 #73 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    But The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brian began tanking shortly after Conan took over, and has nothing to do with Jay's new show.

    As for the financial aspect, we don't know what the ad rates for these shows are, or whether they've had to refund any ad revenues due to the shrinking ratings. All we know is that NBC is saving a ton of money on a nightly basis by airing Leno in place of a scripted drama. Whether that savings turns out to be an overall loss due to flagging ratings on the rest of the network's slate remains to be seen. And even if the rest of the network's shows are tanking, it would be hard for anyone to make a coherent argument that those shows are tanking due to Leno.
     
  14. Oct 12, 2009 #74 of 2005
    bicker

    bicker bUU

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    We actually do have some reasonably reliable insights into the ad rates for Leno, and that they've achieved the thresholds in terms of audience that they had to, and therefore that they're making profit on the whole deal.

    We don't know about Conan, but as you pointed out, that might not matter, since there is no way to divide up how much Conan's ratings have gone down between that portion that is because his show sucks versus that portion attributable to Leno leading into the local news.
     
  15. Oct 12, 2009 #75 of 2005
    GadgetFreak

    GadgetFreak New Member

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  16. Oct 12, 2009 #76 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    OK, that's just an example of NBC execs sticking their heads in the sand. Conan has been getting whipped by Dave in the ratings for several months, not just in the last week since Dave admitted to the affair.
     
  17. Oct 12, 2009 #77 of 2005
    SorenTodd

    SorenTodd New Member

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    Exactly.

    I'm just as loyal to the L&O mothership and SVU now as I was before Jay jumped over to Prime Time.

    The only other NBC show I am following is Trauma. Nothing else on their mundane lineup excites me enough to tune in on a regular basis.
     
  18. Oct 12, 2009 #78 of 2005
    marksman

    marksman ID-10-T

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    It would be fairly easy to make that argument.

    They built their entire fall schedule around the fact they have Jay at 9:00/10:00. They canceled shows, they moved shows, they bought pilots, all of it predicated on Jay Leno being on the last hour of every night. They impacted their entire schedule because of this.
     
  19. Oct 12, 2009 #79 of 2005
    DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give 'em Hell, Devils

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    Sure, they made changes to their schedule based on the fact that Leno would be taking up 5 primetime slots per week. But are the flagging ratings for Heroes due to Leno? Are the mediocre ratings for the Thursday comedies due to Leno? Is the fact that neither Trauma or Mercy have been very well accepted due to Leno? About the only thing you can possibly attribute to Leno is the fact that the ratings for SVU are off this season, but that's due to the fact that SVU had to move to a different timeslot where it now faces tougher competition and not because of Leno's ratings.

    Given the relative weakness of the pilots they bought and aired, there really isn't any reason to think they'd have done any better with more available slots. NBC's development department just sucks.
     
  20. Oct 12, 2009 #80 of 2005
    MickeS

    MickeS Well-Known Member

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    It really is amazing what has happened to NBC in the last few years. To pin it solely on Leno is to miss the big picture. He can hardly be blamed for NBC not having a single show in the top 20 (beyond football). The situation was not much better last year. Just look at shows that seemed exciting, like "Heroes" and what a disaster it turned into after Season 1. It's amazing to me how they managed to completely destroy that franchise that to me seemed almost limitless in possibilities (well, at least like it should remain in the top 20 for a while).
     

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