Is TiVo in trouble?

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by Sparky1234, Feb 27, 2019.

  1. Mar 2, 2019 #121 of 350
    Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    HUH? vMVPDs are skinny bundles. No one does a la carte cable channels because they can't.

    What?!?

    You have to look at the bigger picture. The government is obsessed with more spectrum, more spectrum, more spectrum at basically any cost. The carriers just keep crying gimme! gimme! gimme!. The problem is that the spectrum in the US has been poorly and inefficiently managed since day one, and it should never be sold, but rather leased, with leases not renewed if companies don't do a good job actually utilizing that spectrum. This is further degraded by a push to make everything wireless everywhere. I'm still a firm believer in having as much wired as possible, but that's not the way the market has been going, due to spineless and corrupt regulators. Telcom policy in the US is a dumpster fire, and as a result, we now need small cells and 5G for residential service, as the competition that should have occurred between multiple MSOs and the ILEC in any given area hasn't materialized. Tens of billions of dollars have been squandered, and we aren't any closer to having better broadband access.

    Yup. We could end up with only a couple of giant services with tons of shows so people will want to keep their subscriptions active, or a whole bunch of small ones with only a few good shows because people will sub, binge, and cancel. I'm not that worried though, I think it will all shake out now that we have far more consumer choice. Providers are going to have to figure out how to survive in this new landscape.

    This kind of attitude is exactly why the pay tv industry is in a death spiral. Not everyone can have every little niche channel full of junk, but yet the content producers have gotten people to yell and scream and have a hissy fit when their MVPD drops their one niche channel. MVPDs need to grow a pair, and just cut the crap out, as it's unsustainable to have content costs going up far faster than inflation forever. Comcast used to rubber stamp every contract and pay more and more, then YES broke the camel's back, and Comcast told them to go pound sand, although they later did agree to a deal. Now that broadband is their main business, I'm hoping that MVPDs will start to cut channels that are either junk, or just charge way too much like YES.

    I firmly believe that there is a central role for the living room television going forward, but it's clear cable is not part of that role. Roku, FireTV, Apple TV, etc, are going to be the platforms of choice, and since content providers are just apps now, the market could be very dynamic.

    Yeah, that pretty much sums it up!
     
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  2. Mar 2, 2019 #122 of 350
    wizwor

    wizwor Active Member

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    Whether or not you like the result, the transition to digital tv was a disruption.

    We're not far apart here except for motive. The government was bribed by the wireless providers and the premium providers to bury broadcast television. AT&T, Comcast, and T-Mobile are all in the top 50 lobbyists.
     
  3. Mar 3, 2019 #123 of 350
    mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we'll see TiVo buy it! LOL
     
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  4. Mar 3, 2019 #124 of 350
    Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    It was an upgrade to free tv, and made free tv much more viable as an alternative to cable.

    I don't think they were trying to bury free TV per se, but rather they wanted more spectrum so that they could offer more and more high-profit, non-unionized, low-capital intensity wireless services versus actually investing in wireline services and offering more limited wireless services that they could have with the wireless spectrum available 10 years ago.
     
  5. Mar 3, 2019 #125 of 350
    mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    I certainly pay significantly less and get less... less of the channels that I never watched or wanted. I do get all the channels I want to watch and more. For me it's been nothing short of awesome.
     
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  6. Mar 3, 2019 #126 of 350
    tommiet

    tommiet Active Member

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    It seems TiVo has ALWAYS been for sale..... Some may call that a good thing.... but not me and the stock market.

    When the cable cards go away, Tivo will be right behind it as they are doing nothing to prepare for that change. OTA TiVo will not be enough to keep them going and cost too much as other options for less are available now.

    I'm not a hater... I do like my TiVo. Just being realistic. I also liked my Beta-max recorded AND my laser disk player too.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2019
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  7. Mar 3, 2019 #127 of 350
    mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    Being sued tends to stifle cooperation.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
  8. Mar 3, 2019 #128 of 350
    dbpaddler

    dbpaddler Active Member

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    The problem with Netflix is content is extremely inconsistent. They're like Costco. Get used to buying something you like for a bit, then walk in to buy it one day, and it's no longer on the shelf.

    The sad thing is, everyone clamored for ala carte service and the end of bundling. Now everyone is coming out with a streaming service and making content exclusive. So all these cord cutters aren't in the greatest of positions to save money like they thought they would. By the time you subscribe to all the streaming content you want, you're right back to double/triple play prices but now have a bunch of services you have to hop around to to watch everything. And to boot, some of these companies aren't really turning a profit, and you see price increases creeping in and furthering the point that ala carte and streaming isn't necessarily the answer people thought it was.

    So now you're back to cable anyway. Tivo is still the best alternative to renting company boxes and aggregating the major content into one solution. The only real death blow to them would be a massive industry wide switch to IP based cable/fios which will never happen in the near future so cable card support will remain for quite a while.

    It's a shame there isn't good marketing for tivo. At least I never see it. I remember the days of seeing it all over. Now it seems non existent.

    Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk
     
  9. Mar 3, 2019 #129 of 350
    wizwor

    wizwor Active Member

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    Except you had to use those crappy digital to analog converters which were not free even if you got the government vouchers. Just ask Comcast which was among the premium providers that spent a bazillion dollars offering special deals to people impacted by the end of broadcast television.

    You, my friend, need to be more cynical. You know what you could not use those vouchers for? GOOD digital to analog converters like TiVos and DTVPals. The terms SPECIFICALLY limited to use towards a crappy converter. So many 'special interests' benefited from the reverse auction and repack. Bill Binney was a politician and businessman from New Hampshire. He bought a lot of properties just to sell during the reverse auction.

    No matter. TiVo is in trouble because there are not enough people willing to pay enough to keep TiVo profitable once the settlement/license revenue evaporates.
     
  10. Mar 3, 2019 #130 of 350
    Bigg

    Bigg Cord Cutter

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    Most of their market is MSOs... that's their biggest risk if they go away from the TiVo platform.

    I've seen a lot of people make comments about how streaming is now somehow as expensive as cable. These comparisons are logical nonsense, and dishonest. Many of the streaming services are often subscribed to in addition to cable anyway, so you can't really look at them as alternatives to cable per se. And when you do the math out, cutting the cord is MUCH cheaper, as you can subscribe to what you want when you want it instead of being locked into a giant cable package full of garbage.

    The argument that somehow people will have to end up paying just as much is also nonsense. That sort of zero-sum thinking is missing the fact that the content producing market and a lot of the intermediaries are going to have to shrink or go away entirely. A lot of cable channels are going to implode and go off the air entirely.

    No you're not.

    Retail is a small part of TiVo's market compared to MSO partners. They are the ones out there pushing and advertising TiVo within their footprints. Comcast is getting close to being able to scale up IP multicast over HFC, and they are already doing IPTV over EPON. Sure, other MSOs are about 5 years behind Comcast in technology, but it's not THAT far off. However, there probably won't be much of an MVPD pay-tv market left by then between CoIP/vMVPD options and true cord cutting, so it really won't matter in the end.

    I think OTA will survive a lot longer than cable, as that real estate is valuable, and there is always a market for free. ATSC 3.0 could be the rebirth of OTA as we see large numbers of HD subchannels on a single transmitter.

    Stupid people who didn't understand what was going on and dishonest cable companies making it sound like OTA TV was going away, instead of getting better like it actually was != the government "disrupting" anything. Those converters were dumb, but those were only for S2's. S3's and newer have ATSC tuners, as do all modern TVs.

    I don't think AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and the like were gunning for OTA TV. I think they're just greedy and wanted the spectrum for their own uses.
     
  11. Mar 3, 2019 #131 of 350
    dadrepus

    dadrepus Active Member

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    This is all so fuuking depressing :(
     
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  12. Mar 3, 2019 #132 of 350
    Mikeguy

    Mikeguy Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully, any possible events will outlive all of us. :)
     
  13. Mar 3, 2019 #133 of 350
    morac

    morac Cat God

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    I currently pay $99 for TV and Internet with Comcast. They don’t break out the cost of each and their price list is extremely confusing as they appear to charge by genre now (https://comcaststore.s3.amazonaws.c...75b2cec7a/high_res/UN0000007_sik_high_res.pdf), but let’s just say $50 for TV which includes a few hundred channels.

    The cheapest streaming service that offers live TV (Sling TV) costs $25 (others charge $40 or more) and doesn’t offer many of the channels I watch (and I’m not watching niche channels). Even assuming I used that and dropped TV from Comcast, my Internet price would increase since Comcast gives a discount for bundling TV and Internet. At best it would be a wash to get less channels than I do now. At worse it would cost more and that’s not even including OTT streaming services or services like CBS access which would be needed to watch CBS broadcast on demand (included with Comcast), so it’s not “logical nonsense” that having cable TV can be cheaper.

    I agree that a lot of niche channels should go away (though many of those are À la cart these days) and expensive channels like ESPN shouldn’t be forced onto customers, but that doesn’t mean cable TV isn’t the best value. Not unless you forgo watching you favorite shows for a year until they hit only one of the numerous streaming services forcing subscription to multiple services to see all your shows. Yes you could subscribe to one at a time, binge watch and cancel, but that would quickly result in likely falling hopelessly behind.
     
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  14. Mar 4, 2019 #134 of 350
    mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    I pay $39.99 for Comcast internet 60MB. I pay $25 for DirecTV Now (I'm an AT&T Cell user) and I use an antenna for locals. I couldn't find a bundle for that cost from Comcast after fees and taxes. Now I know that you might not think this is much savings but I can switch and choose from several streaming services on a whim. Go on vacation? Stop the service and don't pay for it until I get back and start it back up. I can switch to watch games or switch for a good series. That freedom is worth more to me than the cost. I've had Netflix, Hulu and Prime Video for years along with cable so those are no additional cost. My wife struggled with it for a week or so but now is right at home with it. When one of the kids come to visit they feel right at home with using apps. It's not for everyone but for me it's the best thing that ever happened. I cant see ever going back to cable.
     
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  15. Mar 4, 2019 #135 of 350
    trip1eX

    trip1eX imo, afaik, feels like to me, *exceptions, ~aprox

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    I don't see it like that. I see it as Netflix taking over the industry. Not a move to become an ala carte cable channel.

    They have ~139 million subscribers worldwide. The entire pay tv industry in the US has ~90 million subscribers.

    A good chunk of major content today is not found on cabletv. It's only growing. We're in the early innings.

    And services are easy to switch in and out of.

    And in this world it doesn't matter if Tivo is the best alternative to a company box when you don't even need a company box.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2019
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  16. Mar 4, 2019 #136 of 350
    dbpaddler

    dbpaddler Active Member

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    Not many people pay for just one streaming service. And Netflix frustratingly ditches content all the time. Quite a few times I remember going to watch something we had just started on live TV figuring we can avoid commercials only to see it no longer there. And as more studios create their own streaming services, they'll pull content from Netflix, Prime, Hulu.

    Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk
     
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  17. Mar 4, 2019 #137 of 350
    mschnebly

    mschnebly Well-Known Member

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    I guess I've been lucky. I haven't run into that enough times to make it worth paying the cost of keeping cable.
     
  18. Mar 4, 2019 #138 of 350
    tommiet

    tommiet Active Member

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    I don't think the so called "skinny" bundles are that cost effective. I'm getting 200MB, phone and every single cable channel (Spectrum) provides for $135.00. YUP,,, All the movie channels too. Spectrum charges $69.95 for just 60MB internet. Using that price, I'm only paying about $60.00 for all my cable channels. It's not skinny, but a fair price.. IMO.

    NOW.. if you were to toss all the DVR hardware fees... my price for 1 POS Spectrum dvr and 2 HD slaves would add about $40.00 a month to the bill.
     
  19. Mar 4, 2019 #139 of 350
    dbpaddler

    dbpaddler Active Member

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    And not sure what you watch, but go try and find any DC content anywhere. CW DC shows are gone from Hulu. A lot of animated DC content is gone from Netflix. Couldnt even watch Suicide Squad on Prime last night. Not saying that is making it worth it to keep cable, but it's a step in the wrong direction from our perspective.

    Now go over to AVS forums where they talk of the death of 4k Blu ray disc's. The shift to streaming, being ruled by an internet connection and paying for content you technically don't own and is given to you at the whim of the provider. Paying for digital copies of things you can't watch without streaming, you can't sell to someone else or donate to charity (like my DVD collection).

    Granted that's a bit of a different argument, but it has some parallels.
     
  20. Mar 4, 2019 #140 of 350
    foghorn2

    foghorn2 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    The costs savings of streaming is just an illusion. :D
     
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