How long before a TivoHD price drop?

Probably mid January.

 

Will probably depend on initial sales. I suspect we may see a $50-$100 drop and/or rebate for Christmas and a reduced MSRP in 1Q next year (to $199 or $249).

And we'll probably see a bunch of "but I paid $299" complaints here at the same time ...

 

I'm actually hoping this will spur an inventory depletion for S3 units by Tivo. If it gets down to <= $400 range again I will have to seriously consider a 3rd, perhaps without activating service on it for a while.

 

I'd be all over another $200 rebate on the S3.

 

I think there are a few of us who would jump at another rebate like that as well.

 

Tivo is planning on selling it for $299. See:

http://www.audioholics.com/news/industry-news/tivo-hd-dvr-announced-at-299.html

 

I was referring to the S3. If they dropped the price on them, I would just go with the S3

 

Two things to look for:

Competing boxes launched in the fall.

Holiday/post Holiday period.

 

I think TiVo has little margin on this box at all. any price drop would surely be a subsidy which they never ruled out on the TiVo HD of course. I do agree that the current S3 may well drop in price at least on the street

 

But they could sell them at a loss and make it back in the monthly fees like many other items today.

Like save 50 - 100 up front for a 3 year commitment at full monthly rate.

 

Reducing the hardware subsidies was a bad move. You'll either see TiVo reverse this (relative to the product they have), change the entire bundle/commitment strategy, or you'll see TiVo continue to miss Subs and see its SAC out of control.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if TiVo doesn't offer any discounts on the box until next year. $300 is pretty cheap to start with, and I think they've really cut their margin down to little if anything.

I haven't seen any real competition pending. The only new standalone HD DVRs I've seen coming at the Digeo Moxi boxes - and the figures seen so far would make it more expensive than an S3. It remains to be seen if Digeo can provide any real competition.

There will probably be discounts from online resellers, as there usually are, selling closer to wholesale than brick & mortar stores.

 

Crimey. The thing isn't even shipping yet and people want it for less. I'd say at least 6 months before you see a price drop, and probably over a year before it's priced for the cheap chicken b@st@ards.

 

How much is Moxi "service?" How many years is the commitment?

 

Oh, it's shipping. There are already reports of folks getting them at bricks and mortars.

 

They haven't announced any details yet. It may be all up-front - but they were talking about ~$1000 price points at CES 2007. It remains to be seen what they actually price things at, and how they handle the features. They were also planning to charge for various features a la carte. So you'd buy the box, but might have to pay more to enable different things - like the old HMO system.

With the TiVo HD at $300, they will need much lower pricing. Even with TiVo's service.

 

How would you know what the margin is on this box ?

It's kinda funny when someone that wasn't involved in designing it says something like this.

 

I won't buy until it's free(or very cheap;<50$). I'm paying TiVO $13 a month for service. If I sign a 2(or 3) year contract with them, I see no reason why I can't get a free DVR.

 

Funny I just looked back at Zatz 7/3/07 and then the NYT just put out a piece saying

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/26/technology/circuits/26basics.html?em&ex=1185681600&en=8d97b5f04e5b79cf&ei=5087%0A

Then I found that Moxi also plans an OCAP software upgrade for cable boxes similar to what TiVo is doing for Comcast/Cox.

http://www.digeo.com/press_pressrelease.aspx?id=5

Then Multichannel News also writes regarding the cable hardware:

http://www.digeo.com/press_newsstory.aspx?id=4

So there does not seem to be a lot of info to find out there right now about the original question.