Goodbye TiVo

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by skiajl6297, Nov 11, 2011.

  1. Jan 6, 2012 #141 of 172
    TheFeaz

    TheFeaz New Member

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    Cost of cash- Again, your cash costs you nothing; You're going to spend it on Tivo service fees, cheeseburgers, or golf balls. This argument is only valid if you were going to use those $200 you paid for LTS to go out and buy an investment property that was going to provide you a residual income.

    As far as realizing your savings after the 2 years, that is true. But, given your own stated optimism that your Tivo has a useful life of 2-3 years, what do you have for your $19.95/month after 2 years? You have a 2-year old, un-subbed box on month 25. For about the same amount of $$$, I on the other hand have a 2-year old box with service for as long as it lives. The current market says that's worth $200-300, whether you'd pay it or not. (Since, after all, we are talking about what the MARKET will bear.)

    I was telling people five years ago they'd be LUCKY if their $500K house was worth HALF that five years from now (then). I laughed at them then, I laugh even harder now. That's not faith in a product or a market, that was just plain greed and stupidity.


    Well, to quote the old adage, "The only thing constant is change"... So, of course you're right- The market is changing; It always has been; It always will be. You need to be very careful though in predicting the future market based on the current behaviors of the young. For one thing, today's young are a VERY fickle crowd, given to fad and fashion. I'm not saying IPTV is going away, but it's anyone's guess as to what will be "in" five years from now. Look how MySpace was the place to be one day, and almost unheard of now.

    I'm not bashing the young generation, but they haven't exactly been cultivated by the education system, the government, MTV, the media, and their parents (my generation) to make prudent, responsible financial decisions. They have been trained to be "good consumers". With a high percentage of disposable income, short-lived life experience, poor role models, and an unhealthy faith in the altruism of those marketing to them from every angle, I wouldn't want to wager too many of my pennies on what that generation is ultimately going to embrace.

    Of course, none of that invalidates your point that technology is changing, and Tivo will need to grow with it, or become a footnote in history. But to suggest that TV, as we know it, is literally on its way out the door, I don't think so. There are a LOT of people out there not really smart or sophisticated enough to use all these new technologies until we standardize and integrate some of them, and that's going to take some time. A tough economy is liable to slow some of that as well.

    I have to tell you, I found this to be kind of surprising myself, but I'm amazed at the number of people out there today who even still own VHS tapes. As all those credit card payments come due from that "good consumer" spending of the younger generation, and other priorities begin to take over (having kids, a home, a mortgage, etc.), you're liable to see some of that appetite for the newest, latest, and greatest thing being quelled. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised (though I'm not betting on it either), if you didn't see something of a reversal away from materialism in the NEXT generation, as they defy what they see their parents represent, as what so often seems to happen in the youngest generation.
     
  2. Jan 6, 2012 #142 of 172
    TheFeaz

    TheFeaz New Member

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    I understand what compression is... I have an RF license myself. Still, I am saying that as a broadcaster, I'm sure I have something in my contract that says I reserve the right to adjust the output to suitable levels, which might be referring to its average.

    Anyway, this is a moot argument, as the FCC has actually instituted policy that REQUIRES this, going into effect over the next 12 months. So, if the average level of my content is 50, and you compress your spot so it all peaks out at 100, no, you won't red-line anything, but since you're maxing out the level all the way through, your aerage is 100, which means I turn you down to 50.

    And honestly, I've never run any of them through a meter, but some of the audio on some of the infomercials DOES sound hot... Some of it almost sounds like it's flat-topping, which means it is not all always compression, which was my second point back there, that it was just poor engineering on the producer's part. Then again, if the people producing those things really gave a rip about quality, they would probably selling other products...
     
  3. Jan 6, 2012 #143 of 172
    Johncv

    Johncv Well-Known Member

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  4. Jan 6, 2012 #144 of 172
    unitron

    unitron Well-Known Member

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    Some of that flat-topping, or clipping, is a result of people who don't know how to use a microphone getting too close and maxing out the diaphragm throw, not to mention proximity effect, so it's distorted before it ever hits the preamp or the pots.
     
  5. Jan 6, 2012 #145 of 172
    steve614

    steve614 what ru lookin at?

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    Why so little confidence in how long your Tivos last?
    I have two TivoHDs, one 5 yrs old and the other 3 yrs old. I expect them to last a few years yet. Especially since the hard drives and power supplies are easily fixed/replaced.
    Heck, I still have a S2 540 all original still chugging along after 7 yrs.

    Now let's look at my costs.
    My S2 was a gift so it only cost me $299 for lifetime in 2005.
    TivoHD #1 was $399 + retail cost in 2007.
    TivoHD #2 was $299 + retail cost in 2009.
    The lifetimes alone cost me $1000.

    If I had gone the per month route:
    S2 @ $12.99 /mo for 84 months
    TivoHD #1 @ $9.99 /mo for 60 months
    TivoHD #2 @ $9.99 /mo for 31 months
    To date, that would have cost me just over $2000 for the subscriptions not counting my retail costs.
    I'd say lifetime is the better deal.
     
  6. Jan 6, 2012 #146 of 172
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

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    @steve

    Can't forget the cost of your money... Heck you could have invested that money in mortgage derivatives and really cleaned up! :rolleyes:
     
  7. Jan 7, 2012 #147 of 172
    HerronScott

    HerronScott Well-Known Member

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    I too will disagree that my original S3's that I purchased in January 2007 will not last more than 2-3 years from now. Mine are currently 5 years old and for what I'm using them for are as functional as when I bought them (more so due to added features). I even have one of my original S1's in use that's 10 years old in my son's game room doing manual recordings of SD shows for him and his friends.

    I don't see it changing that fast for the majority of TV viewers. Streaming HD is still not up to the quality of even the compressed versions provided by most cable operators and even if you could get the same quality streamed with 5.1 audio most ISP's are limiting your monthly bandwidth. I feel lucky that I have Comcast whose limit is 250GB but that would limit you to about 40 hour long TV shows a month given the typical 6GB size that we see for most shows.

    Scott
     
  8. Jan 7, 2012 #148 of 172
    TheFeaz

    TheFeaz New Member

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    Alright, so you still insist on arguing this like money you would otherwise "spend" is still an investment? (Remember, none of us are shorting our 401(k)'s to pay for LTS. But, let's just indulge ourselves here...

    We'll leave inflation out of this to keep it simple. His example was based on a term that totaled 48 months, so that's 4 years. We have $1,000 of capital then to "invest" at T-4 years. I don't know mortgage derivatives (and they would have been speculative before the fact anyway), so I'm just going to run the numbers for our Tive "investment".... Again, $1,000 of working capital.

    Scenario #1 - Lifetime Service
    Capital Investment: $1,000
    Initial Value of investment: $2,000 (based on $19.95 month stated "value")
    Future (at T-0 years) value of investment: $600 (3 Tivos x estimated resale value of LTS @ $200 / unit)
    Total investment value: $2,600 (actual + recovery of capital through resale)
    Net proceeds: $1,600 (Actual value - capital investment)

    Scenario #2 - Month-to-month @ $19.95 w/ capital invested in fund (X)
    Capital Investment: $1,000 to fund (X)
    Purchase of Tivo services (additional capital) - $2,000
    Total Capital investment: $3,000

    Initial Value of Tivo investment: $2,000 (stated value @ $19.95 / month)
    Future value of Tivo investment: $0 (Expired sub has no resale value)
    Return on fund (X) - $1,000 (Assuming approx 20% annual ROI)
    Total investment value: $4,000 (Unconverted capital (fund X) + Gains + value)
    Net proceeds: $1,000 (Actual value - capital invement)
    Net proceeds per $1,000 - $333 (Adjusted for fair comparison to scenario #1).

    If you're going to use the argument of investing in X over Y as an argument for favoring one investment, then you need to consider them both investments in both scenarios. Your scenario neglects to consider the cost of the money that you're investing @ $19.95 month. The performance of this “investment” (or lack thereof) depletes the value of your winner (fund X). This is kind of like telling me that I should go buy a rental house on my credit card at 20% interest, because the rental has a great ROI.

    That's not a bid thing, IF, and only IF the rental generates enough income to service its debt. In your example of mortgage derivatives, that may be true, in hindsight, for your particular example, but to service a $20 monthly obligation (the non LTS service premium) that you'd have to buy in order to receive he equivalent value in goods / services as my $1,000 LTS investment, then your $1,000 investment would need to return that $19.95 to you every month (and then pay you a $600 bonus at the end). Notwithstanding the bonus, that's about a 25% ROI, which is a VERY (ridiculously?) ambitious investment objective. Even with that 20%+ ROI, my $1,000 investment returned me $1,600 ($2,000 in like-kind goods + service + $600 recovered capital - $1,000 initial investment). So it wasn’t such a foolish “investment” after all, no?

    Anyway, I really don't want to keep this argument up. I just get kind of hot under the collar these days when people start talking about "spending" as investing. It's very much akin to when the girl at the grocery store hands me my receipt and says, "Oh, you SAVED $20 today!". It doesn't "really" make me mad, but I always correct her, reminding her that, "No, I SPENT $82 today".

    The only way you SAVE money is by SAVING it, and not spending it; The only way you MAKE money is by INVESTING it. They are mutually exclusive and you cannot compare their performances on opposite sides of an equation. That is an economic fallacy and it drives me NUTS to hear people going on about it, whether it's to justify auto "leasing" or liberals trying to justify new taxes as "investments".
     
  9. Jan 7, 2012 #149 of 172
    lrhorer

    lrhorer Active Member

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    The encryption is not really CableLabs', but it is not quite the point. CableLabs requires that the operating software cannot be trivially replaced or the hardware lock-down be trivially avoided.
     
  10. Jan 7, 2012 #150 of 172
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

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    @feaz

    I was being sarcastic. Mortgage derivatives were a key cause of the recession and are mostly worthless now.:D
     
  11. Jan 7, 2012 #151 of 172
    lrhorer

    lrhorer Active Member

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    San...
    That statement is just utterly stupid. It costs TiVo about $600 to deliver the basic model plus another dollar or two a month to Tribune Media for guide data. In order to stay in business, they *MUST* recover those costs. Now, they can do so by doing what the Moxi did and charge $800 up front, no options, period. Moxi didn't get very far with that strategy, despite all the utter nonsense from the Moxi owners about "free guide service". They can take the second option of selling at an initial loss, but then making up for it in a monthly fee plan. In fact, this is exactly what they do. For the consumer who buys a DVR and keeps it for two years or so, the cost is about the same. The buyer who only keeps the box a year or so spends a lot less. The buyer who keeps the box more than two years spends more. Unlike anyone else, however, TiVo offers *BOTH* options. One can purchase the hardware plus PLS - which is in no way different from Moxi's plan - or one may purchase and go for a monthly subscription. So exactly what is the down-side, here?

    What, exactly, do you suggest as an alternative. You say they should not sell at a loss and make it up by offering a monthly fee, nor should they charge for their entire costs up front. What else is there?

    What else do you suggest? How else is TiVo to recover their investment?

    I really wish people would quite being utterly stupid.

    NOTHING IS FREE. NOTHING. NOT EVER. IT DOESN'T HAPPEN

    I am not familiar with Verizon's plans, but it is quite possible they include the $500 or so cost (to them) of the DVR in the cost of their service plan and then don't show the breakdown on the bill. My car's invoice didn't show the cost of the engine or the steering wheel, either, but I assure you they were included in the cost. More to the point, however, if Verizon does include a DVR with the bundle, then the FCC requires by law that they provide a discount if the subscriber uses their own DVR.

    (Actually, Verizon may be exempt, as they are not considered a "CATV company" by the letter of the regs.)

    NOTHING IS EVER FREE, TOTALLY OR OTHERWISE

    Verizon loads the cost of their service with the cost of delivering the DVR, whether they itemize that cost on the bill or not and whether they discount the service for customers who do not use the DVR / STB or not. Providing you with that hardware costs them money, and I absolutely guarantee they load the costs of delivering that hardware to the subscriber. What's even worse, if the subscriber continues to use the DVR or STB beyond the length of time the provider has allocated for the amortization of the box, then one continues to pay them for the box. After ten year or so, the subscriber will have easily paid for two boxes. Not only that, but he is also paying for other subscribers who trash their leased DVRs or demand a replacement every few months. Isn't that fun?

    There still isn't - not in my household. Neither one offers anything I want for the cost. Actually, neither one offers very much I want in any case. I'm no more interested in renting videos than I am in renting a DVR, but even if I were, neither of those services offers very much I want to see that I do not already have.
     
  12. Jan 7, 2012 #152 of 172
    unitron

    unitron Well-Known Member

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    "NOTHING IS EVER FREE, TOTALLY OR OTHERWISE"

    Not even bad advice?
     
  13. Jan 7, 2012 #153 of 172
    lrhorer

    lrhorer Active Member

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    Bad advice may be the most expensive item of all.
     
  14. Jan 7, 2012 #154 of 172
    TheFeaz

    TheFeaz New Member

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    LOL... Well, a good thing then that I disclosed early on that I don't know anything about mortgage derivatives! :) Actually, I figured you were referring to BEFORE that market went bust. Maybe they were a good investment at one time. I was going to call Ben Bernanke (sp?) but he doesnt' seem to be answering his phone... ROTFL
     
  15. Jan 8, 2012 #155 of 172
    evanborkow

    evanborkow Member

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    :up:
     
  16. wmhjr

    wmhjr Guest

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    So, I've been busy and could not respond = but to lrhorer, the feaz, etc......

    First of all, to lrhorer....

    If you're going to be a jacka$$ (calling people stupid because you don't agree with them), then don't be surprised when people tell you you're a jacka$$. People can disagree without getting emotional. Frankly, your posts tell me more about the amount of emotional investment into Tivo than any relevant rational thought. Sorry - but that's the way it is. Let me explain to you how when you make "assumptions", well, you know the cliche, right?

    You have absolutely no idea what costs Tivo needs to recover. You have absolutely no idea with the COGS is for Tivo. You have no idea how they've capitalized, what they've invested, what their manufacturing costs are, supply chain, marketing, software development, etc. You can assume whatever you want, but either you're almost certainly wrong (probably with some degree of magnitude) OR you're an insider divulging sensitive intellectual property and would be subject to both criminal and civil liability. I don't think it's the latter.

    Second, (in a continuation of your assumptions which in your more recent lengthy post are highly inaccurate to say the least) you make further assumptions as to how the "free DVR" cost is apportioned to the service contract, and the subscriber is still paying for it. Well, you're partially correct. The subscriber is. Problem is, it's not just the subscriber that has the DVR, it's all subscribers. The package prices is actually LOWER than previous packages with the same content - and before you start talking about locked in commitment - there is none. It's month to month. This is a lesson as to why people should not assume. So commonly it can get you in trouble.

    Beyond this, and for more than just lrhorer....

    The problem here guys is that I could care less what you have in YOUR house - or what's in mine. As accurately stated by somebody earlier, you'd be surprised at the number of people who still have VHS recorders in their home. I have a Premier and 2 HDs. As an aside, I ALSO have a free STB and free VZ DVR. Regardless of what kind of package I have, whether I have lifetime or monthly subs for Tivo, I have never, ever ever in person met a single solitary person who has so many devices. Never. Are there some here on this forum? Absolutely. What should we take away from that?

    What we should take away is that if you're making assumptions based on what YOU are willing to do, or how much value YOU believe certain products have, they I humbly suggest you leave financial decisions to somebody else. You - nor I - are representative in any way of the general market. We are outliers, and we had better remember that.

    You may not like Hulu. Neither do I. Again - could care less. I still have a "home phone". The majority of US homeowners/renters under the age of 35 as of 2011 do not (Gartner research, telecommunications trends, 2011). An increasing number of sub 30 year old viewer have no cable service and view content via IP delivery. It is extremely surprising to me that some people cannot recognize the changing market dynamics.

    By the same token, just as in IT where more products are becoming cloud delivered services, customers want services delivered as "services" and don't want to have to pay for up front hardware costs. Just like businesses would often prefer to move capital investment to expense, to cover costs of change and make spend more predictable, consumers are starting to look for the same thing. Like it or not, it IS an advantage to be able to take a failed box to a location 6 miles away and immediately get a replacement - at no cost.

    Bottom line is that I've invested in Tivo, and like the product. I want it to succeed. I think the MSO deals are the best thing they could have done, and that they waited too long. However, I think subscription price INCREASES at the same time that competition is LOWERING prices is a stupid move, and is counterproductive. I also see a huge threat on the horizon.
     
  17. bensonr2

    bensonr2 Member

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    I whole heartily agree that they are killing themselves with average consumers and the price point they've set.

    Many of my friends will bring up how much they hate their cable co stb and will ask me about my Tivo. They always seem intrigued until I bring up the current 20 dollar per month service charge.

    I think a price point of around 14 dollars a month would serve them much better. The average charge for a DVR box from your local cable provider is around 17 a month. It Tivo were around 14 it would wind up being a much more attractive proposition for the average person.
     
  18. jpcamaro70

    jpcamaro70 Member

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    Consider this though:

    My old cable bill included 10.95 for dvr service and 6.95 for the box per month. Also consider this is the worst dvr in use today (I suppose). And i'm not going to count the .25 per month for the remote (yes they charge for that crappy remote.)

    So now, I spent 70 upfront, and 20 per month for a far superior product. FAR SUPERIOR!

    So I'm spending @ 2 more per month, when factoring the cost of the dvr over a 1 year period it's another 6.

    Thats 8 per month for one year to totally recover the cost of the dvr and for service. Break that down to 2 years and it's only 5 per month more.

    Everyone is different, but i'll gladly pay more for a BMW over a toyota.
     
  19. bensonr2

    bensonr2 Member

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    You and everyone else on the forum can justify the price all you want. And as for myself obviously I'm ok with the price as I pay it.

    My point is I think they are killing their subscriber growth. The average consumer is not going to be willing to pay that much per month and have to buy the equipment on top of it.
     
  20. nycityuser

    nycityuser Member

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    I completely agree. Most novices (i.e., average people) don't care about the "quality" of a DVR. They just want to record shows to watch later.

    With TiVo there is the complexity of having to buy the box, set it up, arrange for the cablecard and pay two separate companies for its use.

    With the cable company you just call them up and they send a box that works, or they deliver and install it themselves.

    And the cable company's box is less expensive! How can TiVo win?

    Many say that lifetime service is the way to go. In that case TiVo's model is to lay out $500+ for a box and service vs no initial outlay to the cable company.

    Again, how can TiVo win?
     

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