Directv Possibly going back to Tivo HD DVR

Discussion in 'DirecTV TiVo Powered PVRs & Receivers' started by raven540, Feb 16, 2007.

  1. Feb 20, 2007 #81 of 625
    dirk1843

    dirk1843 I'm your huckleberry

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    Can someone spare a few million?? I have been getting tired of my job, and I think I could run D* pretty well. TiVos for everyone!! :D
     
  2. Feb 20, 2007 #82 of 625
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    I'm basically assuming verizon plans to rewire their whole footprint with fiber- that's were I am coming from. And that no one is buyign directv tomorrow that it will be a year or 2 at least till malone looks to dump it. So buy the time VZ gets around to buying it they wil have closer to 25% coverage then to 0%.

    You seem to be assuming that vz or att will abandon their wired video plans and go dbs instead and I think that would be a huge change. If you think they want to have video tomorrow then yes by all means but DBS now, but i dont think they are in that much of a rush nor do i think malone is selling tomorrow . It likely will be a year until he even gets the final OK from the government to control Directv. Even in a year I doubt he'll sell right away. So there's that much more time for verizon or att to be along in their plans. And to be committed to doing video over their wired networks.

    verizon has 45.1 million wireline customers- I think that's more then comcat but it could be a little less. Comcast might have a bigger geographic reash but i dont think they have vastly more houses past.

    verizon is in the process of turning on like 1/3 of NJ for video at the moment and plans to fire up the second third in the next year or so. I think they have most of the countys in Maryland on the way also. That's with fiber to the home. I consider that a pretty big commitement, I'm hoinestly havne't heard much of ATT's plans except some bits and peices that they slowed down their fiber roll out. (But I'm firmly in VZ homeland so my nes will be skewed . I think they pass about 2 million homes with video now- is ATT that deep (dont know myuself)? Verizon supposedly is spending 18-20 billion between 2004 and 2010 for fios. So they will have plunked down a good chunk of change on fios before malone is likely to sell so whatever it is much would be a duplicative with buying a dbs provider.

    SPrint will cover well more then half of the population with wimax in a couple years with 4 or 5 billion in spending. You dont need to cover every square inch of geography to get a lot of subs. Directv only covers like a quarter of the markets with HD locals yet they nail like 60% of the population. So it's all about pikcing up the denser areas.

    Both verizon and ATT didn't just make their video plans yesterday- they've been workign on it fore a while, there's no reason they couldn't have picked up one of the dbs providers years ago but they looked at it and decided to go with their wired plans.

    To be honest I think the best fit to buy up a DBS would have been sprint. THey have national wireless phone, they will get a majority of the population coverered with boradband in a couple years. THey can put voip on the fixed wireless wimax. THey bailed on their wired division and jettisoned it when they merged with nextel so one has to figure they plan on wimax being their last mile solution. Then then they could have used DBS for video and bamn in short order they could have had a national quadruple play footprint. But they are all buddy buddy with cable now and also ditching the wired side probbaly means they think they can do video over the wimax anyway.
     
  3. Feb 20, 2007 #83 of 625
    TyroneShoes

    TyroneShoes HD evangelist

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    I think it's easy to understand. It's human nature to want validation. If you are faced with a choice but are uncomfortable because you don't have enough info about the options and no crystal ball to ensure your choice was the right one down the road, you kind of feel out on a limb. It comforts people to find kindred souls who made the same choice, and infuriates them to hear how the opposite choice is working out so well for those who chose differently.

    It is the same thing at the root of Stockholm syndrome. People try to get on board with the situation they are in, even if in their hearts they know their situation blows or that they probably could have chosen better. But knowing that just kills them, and when you innocently point it out they sometimes go ballistic. And folks who are vitually anonymous are always pretty brave when cowering behind their monitor and keyboard.

    These posters are typically easy to spot because they tend to present weak arguments justifying their choices "I can get 30 HD channels at DISH!" (yeah, 30 channels of crap neither you or I would ever watch after week 1). But then it is kind of fun to tweak them up just to see them sputter :D .
     
  4. Feb 21, 2007 #84 of 625
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    great point- they sort of feel hostage to their choice.
     
  5. Feb 21, 2007 #85 of 625
    zalusky

    zalusky Well-Known Member TCF Club

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    Actually my big complaint is not that DTV dumped Tivo its that they dumped all the choices. Remember when you could buy receivers from anybody.

    At least the competition created a situation where the HW manufacturers tried to make their boxes better and we the consumer could choose.

    Now its middle of the road junk with no incentive to do better.

    I want DTV to offer Tivo, MS, NDS, and anybody else who wants to jump in and let them all innovate against each other.

    Imagine the cell phone providers if you only got one manufacturer experience. They have taken a step back by unifying their GUI in some cases but they still offer a large choice.
     
  6. Feb 21, 2007 #86 of 625
    SullyND

    SullyND L: 31-14 (10-2) TCF Club

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    How many options are there for Nextel?
     
  7. Feb 21, 2007 #87 of 625
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    the intersting thing here is that part of the reason that Directv and Dish got FCC exemptions from the FCC from the proceeding that is causing cable to use cablecards is that at the time years and years back their was a variety of brands with a variety of features availible for both provdiers at retail. When Directv gets done there will be no variety- SD, HD, SD DVR, or HD DVR all with the same UI. It will be interesting to see if the FCC ever picks up on that and forces Directv to open up to allow third parties again.
     
  8. Feb 21, 2007 #88 of 625
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    and the NCTA has picked up on that in their AUg 16, 2006 letter to the FCC whining about the integration ban:

    www.ncta.com/DocumentBinary.aspx?id=466

     
  9. Feb 21, 2007 #89 of 625
    Lee L

    Lee L Got Basenji?

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    Well, Dish and Direct are wrong for going single source, but to say that Cable companies are supposrting a robust market for third party devices is a bit a of a stretch. They pretty much have to be cajoled into doing it much of the time and they are actively trying to circumvent the spirit of the rule with switched video.
     
  10. Feb 21, 2007 #90 of 625
    MichaelK

    MichaelK Active Member

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    cable sure can make you laugh with their perceptions!

    that was a funny bit for sure...
     
  11. Feb 21, 2007 #91 of 625
    cheer

    cheer Registered Offender

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    I don't think that's a fair assumption. While I have no idea how long Malone would hold D* (if he plans to turn it, then whatever minimum period is necessary to get the tax break he wants), Verizon probably hasn't even got drawing-board plans to cover all of its territory. They, like AT&T, will spend the next year or two minimum just focusing on the more densely-populated areas with sufficient income levels to make the payoff quicker. Or at least, that's what they will try to do, which brings us the next obstacle...more below.
    Oh they're both committed, but you're missing the point: it's not just about their territories. It's about bundling. More below.
    AT&T is very deep -- they announced Lightspeed back in 2004 (as SBC), if I recall correctly. But both companies have hit a huge snag: franchise agreements. Thanks to cableco lobbying (surprise, surprise) the telcos are being forced to negotiate franchise agreements with each municipality they want to built out in. Each little town council needs to have meetings, negotiate franchise fees, etc. In some cases, the telcos are suing.

    But it isn't just about all of this. It really is about the entire country, and protecting other revenue streams. If Comcast can offer me voice, video and Internet and AT&T cannot, then I might be more inclined to use Comcast for, say, Internet rather than AT&T. AT&T and Verizon see video as another component that can help sell voice, data and wireless services. They're particularly worried about losing existing voice or data customers to Comcast, and feel that the only way to beat the cablecos is to trump cableco bundling with their own bundling that also includes wireless.

    None of this is really a secret -- AT&T at least has been very clear in analyst meetings, etc., and again it's why they've pushed Homezone.

    Plus, there may be tax advantages to such an acquisition. You'd be surprised how many huge mergers get done purely for tax purposes.
     
  12. Feb 22, 2007 #92 of 625
    Cudahy

    Cudahy New Member

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    I've never seen posted what percentage of Directv customers have a Tivo. If it's at least 20%, given the loyalty of Tivo users, it's baffling to me why Directv wouldn't want to offer them a choice. They could even charge more. All they care about is making more money right?
    They could offer Tivo the chance to sell a 4mpeg upgrade to the HD250 and charge them $100 per box for doing nothing. Tivo users would pay for it with few complaints.
     
  13. Feb 22, 2007 #93 of 625
    samo

    samo New Member

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    31 to be exact (A&E HD launched Feb 1st). But couldn't agree more with your post. Most Voom channels are trash. At present there isn't a good selection of HD programming from any provider - cable or satellite.
    And the Stockholm syndrome is even more pronounced in S3 forum than it is on dbstalk or HD TiVo forum. It is bad enough to read HR10 owners posts that they don't care about additional channels as long as they get to keep TiVo interface and suggestions, but when somebody posts that they don't care about SDV removing bunch of channels and no hope of getting any extra HD content as long as they can use S3 to receive OTA, it really makes me wonder.
    Wake up people! This year (or perhaps next year) dozens of HD channels will be available from satellite and cable providers. At present, TiVo does not have a DVR that will allow you to receive these channels and except for the future Comcast TiVo probably never will.
    I didn't drop truckload of money on large screen LCD to watch networks and PBS OTA (even if I could receive the signal).
    I want as much of the choice as possible and I find both HR20 and VIP-622 quite acceptable. I have them now, they work, they are ready for a near future programming additions. And quite frankly, IMHO both of this units have nicer UI than TiVo does.
    I don't have S3, so I don't want to argue about reliability (although reading S3 forum makes me feel lucky that I don't have to put up with TiVo bugs).
    All I know, I don't want the DVR that RELIABLY DOES NOT RECEIVE most of the available channels a year from now.
     
  14. Feb 22, 2007 #94 of 625
    cheer

    cheer Registered Offender

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    Because most Tivo owners on D* aren't that loyal. The average consumer -- even the average HD consumer -- doesn't understand the difference and likely wouldn't pay such a premium.

    The number of people who would actually pay $100 extra per box is likely a very small one in the grand scheme of things.

    But the test will be the Comcast deal -- in other words, how many people actually pay extra for Tivo service? It will be interesting to see how Comcast markets this.
     
  15. Feb 22, 2007 #95 of 625
    bonscott87

    bonscott87 Done.

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    Exactly. Many of my friends say they have a Tivo. Only 3 of them actually have a *real* Tivo. The rest have Dish's DVR or the DVR from Charter. It's all Tivo to them. 99% of the people with DirecTV with a Tivo barely realize it and will not leave DirecTV if they have to get something else. Once again, the huge Tivo fans on this site are barely a half percent of the actual userbase. Blip on the radar. I don't have the link but on another forum it was commented that there are already nearly as many R15's out there in customers homes as DirecTivo's. Mainly cause it's been the only DVR available from DirecTV for about a year and a half now, just about the time DVR's really started to hit the mainstream. It's not going to take that long for the HR20 to outnumber the HR10 either.

    I'm not too sure where the Comcast deal with go but I think you'll find most people say "but it already records my shows, why would I pay extra to....have it record my shows?"
    Only way that deal will work out for Tivo will be if that becomes the *default* DVR you get from Comcast.
     
  16. Feb 22, 2007 #96 of 625
    ebockelman

    ebockelman PR#6

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    Really? I've never seen a Tivo refuse to boot based on an HDMI cable being connected.

    Not display over HDMI? Yes. Refuse to boot? No.

    That's a major issue.

    Add the huge bug list and multiple RBRs and you have a situation that warrants staying away from the HR20.
     
  17. Feb 22, 2007 #97 of 625
    cheer

    cheer Registered Offender

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    QFT. This should be bolded, sized up to 72 point, and made a sticky.

    Enthusiasts in almost every field need to remember that they're a minor part of the population. (Take every hardcore nerd Trekkie that ever put on pointed ears or went to a Trek convention, drop them all in the ocean, and you won't materially affect the box office for the next Trek film. Take every D* sub on tivocommunity, drop them from D*, and D* won't notice a blip in its financials. And so on.)
    I think you're right.

    Tivo's CEO has admitted that the difficulty with their product is that you usually have to get people to use it to understand why it's better than other DVRs. That's a tough obstacle to sell past.

    My mother just recently went HD. She's no techie, but she loves movies and wanted a nice system. She understood spending a lot on a Sony XBR instead of a $500 Wal-Mart special, but I couldn't talk her into the S3 -- heck, she needed some talking just for the DVR. She's hooked on the cableco DVR now, but she doesn't see why it would be worth $600+ plus the monthly fee.

    I think if she had one she'd fall in love, especially if TTG ends up getting enabled. But I may have to buy her one to make it happen.
     
  18. Feb 22, 2007 #98 of 625
    drew2k

    drew2k Drew != Drawn

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    TiVo should offer a Three-Months-You'll-Love-It-Or-Your-Money-Back-Guarantee™, with no service fee for the first three months. Customer just pays for the equipment, tries it out, and either returns it for a refund of the equipment outlay, or signs up for a service plan.
     
  19. Feb 22, 2007 #99 of 625
    Lee L

    Lee L Got Basenji?

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    Now that is a good idea. It certainly would make people more secure about having to sign up for a longer term commitment.
     
  20. Cudahy

    Cudahy New Member

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    Cudahy,...
    Has there actually been an objective survey of Directivo users on this? I can't believe that anyone who has actually used the wishlist on Tivo for a few weeks wouldn't mind giving it up just to save some money. Is there anyone who has had a HDtivo250 that wouldn't pay an extra $100 to keep Tivo-Directv when it goes HD?
     

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