ATSC 3.0 TimeTable

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by SomeRandomIdiot, Feb 16, 2016.

  1. Mar 31, 2016 #41 of 280
    SomeRandomIdiot

    SomeRandomIdiot New Member

    1,200
    1
    Jan 7, 2016

    Advertisements

    So many uneducated assumptions.

    If a tree falls in a forest, does it make a sound?

    If Nielsen DQs OTA only Household, does a station lose any measured viewers?

    If a station does not lose any measured viewers, does it lose any revenue?
     
  2. Apr 1, 2016 #42 of 280
    Alan Gordon

    Alan Gordon Chancellor

    142
    0
    May 15, 2005
    Dawson, GA
    Actually, they very well could (at least for a set amount of time). The changeover to ATSC 3.0 is a lot simpler than the switchover from analog to digital.

    Take my market of Albany, Georgia:

    10-1 - NBC (1080i)
    10-2 - ABC (720p)
    10-3 - GRIT (480i)
    14-1 - PBS (1080i)
    14-2 - PBS (480i)
    14-3 - PBS (480i)
    25-1 - PBS (1080i)
    25-2 - PBS (480i)
    25-3 - PBS (480i)
    31-1 - FOX (720p)
    31-2 - Bounce (480i)
    31-3 - Comet (480i)
    44-1 - CBS (1080i)
    44-2 - MNTV (480i)
    44-3 - The CW+ (720p)
    51-1 - IND (480i)

    Let's say that WSWG (44) owned by Gray decided to switch to ATSC 3.0. They could potentially strike a deal with WSST (55) to offer their CBS feed via WSST's tower in ATSC 1.0. WSST, which is a small town independent station could also strike up deals with WFXL (31) to offer their FOX feed via ATSC 1.0 allowing WFXL to switch to ATSC 3.0. Even one of these deals could dramatically increase WSST's revenue.

    Technically, given the number of OTA-only subs (at this time... I actually expect this number to increase in the future), a station could easily strike a deal with all the local stations to offer a 480i signal ATSC 1.0 signal of their primary feeds in order to allow them to switch to ATSC 3.0. Heck, the PBS stations could do this on their sub-channel (for the public!). If people wanted HD feeds, they could buy an ATSC 3.0 tuner...

    Lots of different scenarios...

    Where I live, it's all about the sub-channels!! ATSC 3.0 means more room for sub-channels which means more $$$$$
     
  3. Apr 1, 2016 #43 of 280
    SomeRandomIdiot

    SomeRandomIdiot New Member

    1,200
    1
    Jan 7, 2016
    I've already described in detail what you are saying, which is how it will go down with ATSC 1.0 picture quality (bitrate) taking a hit in ~18 months and then getting worse and worse as more signals move to ATSC 3.0 and multicast on the few remaining ATSC 1.0 signals until the final remaining ATSC 1.0 signal goes away by ~2020. Of course, there might be a few LPTV stations that can find a LP LoVHF Frequency that could continue for a long time past 2020, if anyone really wanted to view them.
     
  4. Apr 1, 2016 #44 of 280
    Alan Gordon

    Alan Gordon Chancellor

    142
    0
    May 15, 2005
    Dawson, GA
    Think of it as me backing you up! I've been saying this for almost a year... the repack is going to be the most difficult transition. ATSC 3.0 shouldn't be a big deal.

    ATSC 1.0 is already taking more and more hits... at least in my area, with more and more sub-channels being added.
     
  5. Apr 1, 2016 #45 of 280
    SomeRandomIdiot

    SomeRandomIdiot New Member

    1,200
    1
    Jan 7, 2016

    Advertisements

    Just wait until you get MORE channels on the ATSC 1.0 signals starting in ~18!months. Pretty soon all on ATSC 1.0 will look like NTSC.
     
  6. Apr 2, 2016 #46 of 280
    jkovach

    jkovach TiVoing since 1999!

    270
    9
    Feb 17, 2000
    Gilbert, AZ USA
    I understood everything until this. Lighthouses?
     
  7. Apr 2, 2016 #47 of 280
    SomeRandomIdiot

    SomeRandomIdiot New Member

    1,200
    1
    Jan 7, 2016
    Reread post 43.

    Multiple Stations will start dumping all their programming at much lower bitrates on the remaining ATSC 1.0 stations until those also go to ATSC 3.0.
     
  8. Apr 2, 2016 #48 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    Lighthouses are the ATSC 1.0 stations that remain after the ATSC 3.0 transition begins. The question is how will these coexist. You will need two tuners or a hybrid tuner to get both sets of stations. All televisions have ATSC 1.0 tuners. All DVRs have ATSC 1.0 tuners. Initially, ATSC programming will have to be watched on a new box with an ATSC 3.0 tuner. This box will plug into an HDMI port like a Roku. ATSC 3.0 transmissions can be sent over other media than coax, so you might have a device in your home that streams ATSC 3.0 to legacy hardware -- including FTVs, Rokus, and even TiVos -- much the way a Tablo does today.
     
  9. Apr 3, 2016 #49 of 280
    RoamioJeff

    RoamioJeff Unregistered User

    314
    68
    May 8, 2014
    34.275647,...
    This boondoggle needs a stake through its heart. Immediately. Especially given how the last "conversion" boondoggle went in 2009. Total cluster.
     
  10. Apr 3, 2016 #50 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    Some characterize the analog->digital transition as a walk through for what is ahead -- the repacking and then ATSC 3.0. To a certain extent this may well be the case. Certainly moving stations from UHF to VHF could lead to this. A lot of people do not have VHF antennas, so moving a station to VHF from UHF would require the addition of an antenna. Even those with VHF antennas may find themselves forced to rethink their pointing. I do not believe many (if any) stations will change bands for these reasons. To a certain extent, such a move would effectively take a station off the air. ATSC 3.0 will be less disruptive simply because it can (and will) co-exist with ATSC 1.0. While there are many benefits to ATSC 3.0, the important one is encrypted/pay programming. This will further disrupt the cable industry, but should only arrive as additional programming for those of us already using an antenna -- additional programming decrypted by an additional box for a fee. Since this programming can be delivered via ethernet/wifi, there is no reason a netflix type app cannot put that signal on your set.

    The fact is that some white collar gangsters (I'm looking at YOU Bill Binnie) are going to cash out of the broadcast television business and some REAL channel numbers are going to change, but the repacked spectrum will not have much of an impact on most OTA'ers.

    ATSC 3.0 is not going to be required -- ever. With ATSC 1.0, the government mandated digital tuners be built into televisions YEARS before the transition. No such mandate is coming for ATSC 3.0. Madeleine Noland, consultant to the LG Standard Technology and Development Team, and Convergence R&D Lab said, “We may have a gateway device or a set-top box attached to an antenna and a Wi-Fi network, for example.” Jerry Whitaker, ATSC vice president for standards development said, “We can’t make consumers adopt it,” he said. “It needs to be a ‘pull’ technology.”

    So you will subscribe to a service like Sling TV or Vue which requires authentication and handles integration of ATSC 3.0 UHD channels, 'add-on' programming, and services like Netflix and Prime. These are streamed from a single box (maybe a router eventually) to set top boxes.
     
  11. Apr 3, 2016 #51 of 280
    NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

    4,005
    2,006
    May 2, 2015
    This is consistent with the stuff I've been reading too. Because ATSC 3.0 is fully IP-based, it should easily integrate with the sort of streaming content we already have. Having your ATSC 3.0 tuner plugged into your home's internet service will also allow for interactivity with live OTA TV content, both the actual programming as well as the ads. I can imagine viewers being incentivized in some way to opt into targeted advertising too; provide some basic demographic and location-based info and instead of seeing the standard ads broadcast from the OTA towers, you'll instead get served up targeted ads streaming in from the internet and dynamically inserted into your live TV viewing. This kind of richer, data-based targeted advertising is part of the incentive for broadcasters to get on board with ATSC 3.0. Consumers will be incentivized to buy ATSC 3.0 set-tops or "gateways" in order to get free UHD HDR programming on their big screen TVs as well free HD programming on all their other screens (phones, tablets, laptops, etc.), hopefully with OTA signals that are more reliable and easier to tune in than what we have now with ATSC 1.0.

    I'm not sure if I understand you correctly about pay TV though. Are you suggesting that some OTA broadcasts will be encrypted and require a paid subscription to receive? If so, what are you basing that on? I've read nothing of the sort. The only thing along those lines I've read about so far is Airbox. (If you haven't heard of it, I'm not surprised. It's been a failure.) Airbox broadcasts SD feeds of Showtime, Starz and some Spanish-language channels in encrypted MPEG4 and requires a special set-top box receiver (from RadioShack!) and a paid subscription. I'm not sure I see why subscription-based video services would try to make a push into OTA broadcasting with ATSC 3.0 when they are already going direct to consumers with internet streaming and having success there.
     
  12. Apr 3, 2016 #52 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    It's one of the stated goals...
    And it makes sense. The presumption that everyone will one day stream everything over high speed internet is inconsistent with what is happening all around us. The smart phone is one of the enabling technologies supporting the growth of broadcast television. The fact is that smart phones are replacing computers as our primary communication, information, and commerce devices allows people to forego high speed internet in favor of broadcast television and a cell phone. It's also illogical. Multiple 4k (or higher) streams into every home continuously is going to require compression and infrastructure improvements which are probably not in our immediate future. There is no reason HBO, Netflix, et al won't pursue OTA subscriptions.
     
  13. Apr 3, 2016 #53 of 280
    NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

    4,005
    2,006
    May 2, 2015
    There's a big reason, which is that people want to view programming on-demand rather than watch live linear tv. I see no way that ATSC 3.0 could accommodate the Netflix distribution model. It's still about live linear broadcasting. Sure, people may be able to connect a hard drive to their OTA gateway and record stuff to watch later but I'm not sure I see that conquering the Internet streaming on-demand model firmly entrenched among younger generations.

    Beyond that, broadband internet is far more reliable for me than is OTA reception. (And I live only 6 - 13 miles from my city's towers.) I'm not sure I see many folks putting up an antenna and dealing with the hassles of OTA reception to watch HBO when they can just pay the same amount and stream it with HBO Now.
     
  14. Apr 3, 2016 #54 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    Same quote highlighted differently...

    Plus you are incorrect about linear vs on demand...

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Apr 3, 2016 #55 of 280
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Well-Known Member

    6,948
    611
    Oct 11, 2005
    Rochester NY
    There are lots of possibilities with ATSC 3.0. The problem is no one knows what is actually going to happen or when. Add in that the timing and what actually happens may be significantly different from market to market and the result is we are in a time of relative confusion and lots of speculation. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds over the next 5 years or so.
     
  16. Apr 3, 2016 #56 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    Right. The big thing is that it is not revolutionary. No one is killing off ATSC 1.0 (except some random idiot). ATSC 3.0 will arrive and supplement then replace. Along the way, we will figure out how to make it affordable.
     
  17. Apr 4, 2016 #57 of 280
    NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

    4,005
    2,006
    May 2, 2015
    Thanks for the info, including your previous post about pay/subscription broadcasts via ATSC 3.0. That was the first I'd read about that. I still question the economic incentive for a national pay broadcaster with zero local content, such as Showtime or HBO, to get into the game of distributing their linear channels through a network of local OTA towers. (Frequency licensing costs, tower costs, etc.)

    The chart you provided indicates that the trend for linear TV viewing is downward and the trend line for streaming/on-demand is upward. And as the older Americans die and younger ones mature, do we really expect that trend to reverse? (And surely that linear TV hour count in your chart includes content that has been recorded and time-shifted by DVR, no?)

    As for ATSC 3.0 allowing for on-demand viewing, I'd love to know how it's technologically possible, outside of recording with an in-home DVR or via internet streaming (not actual OTA distribution) that is integrated through a home gateway connected to the internet. If there were individual on-demand IP streams of video going out of the OTA towers to viewers, that wouldn't really be broadcast TV; it would be wireless internet, the stuff already provided by cell service providers like Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint, etc.
     
  18. Apr 4, 2016 #58 of 280
    wizwor

    wizwor Well-Known Member

    1,044
    285
    Dec 17, 2013
    You're welcome. I linked to the sources. There's lots more to read.

    Bear in mind this is mostly speculation based on a few publications. atmuscarella is correct that we do not know what is going to happen.

    The best way to think about ATSC 3.0 is as a one way ISP which is free and low latency. To content providers, it is no different than OTT.

    ATSC is defining a physical layer. ATSC 3.0 is kind of like the internet before the world wide web. Right now, no one can use whatever gets put out there. What is being put out there is mostly for demonstration purposes.

    The economics is simply that this 'pipe' is free for consumers. Right now, if I am an OTA'er and I want to add HBO, Sling TV, or Vue, I have to get an ISP first ($50/month). 70% of my cost is for the ISP.

    I used to work for a cable company. All our programming came in via satellite. We remodulated the incoming content. Pay-per-view came in on tape. We cued the tapes up in the head end and modulated that. Adult entertainment came in over satellite but had to be tuned each night. We modulated that. Users subscribed to ongoing content and pay per view over the phone. We sent a signal to their box. They got the content until we stopped enabling the box. I suspect ATSC 3.0 premium content will resemble that except that you will be able to subscribe via a browser instead of a telephone. Instead of paying Comcast to deliver the content, the provider will pay a broadcaster. Maintaining a single broadcast station has to be less expensive than maintaining a fabric of cell phone towers or a copper/fiber network.

    Time will tell. All I can say right now is what ATSC says they can do -- enhanced linear TV, on-demand, subscription and pay-per-view (PPV), conditional access, and DRM.

    I just don't see any of this happening in the next five years. I think they are going to have trouble completing the auction and repacking the spectrum in five years and ATSC 3.0 really can't happen until after that.
     
  19. Apr 5, 2016 #59 of 280
    NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

    4,005
    2,006
    May 2, 2015
    I hope ATSC 3.0 happens and is a success. Free UHD HDR programming via more robust OTA signals would be awesome. But I'm also worried that OTA TV will collapse under the weight of too many challenges at once: narrowing spectrum, the repack, a rush to adopt ATSC 3.0 during the repack, lack of an FCC mandate, the need to purchase separate 3.0 tuners/gateways, a smaller spectrum and user base split between 1.0 and 3.0, all at a time when streaming more than OTA is increasingly the default choice for non-cable/sat subscribers.
     
  20. Apr 5, 2016 #60 of 280
    RoamioJeff

    RoamioJeff Unregistered User

    314
    68
    May 8, 2014
    34.275647,...
    You know, as I read about all the machinations over so-called "ATSC 3.0", a little historical perspective is in order. Those seeking to drastically revise the ATSC standard so soon after the 2009 conversion need to be reminded that the NTSC color TV construct remained the gold standard for 55 years.

    Did technology progress during those 55 years? Of course it did. Were improvements in consumer television technology developed and fielded during those 55 years? Of course they were. But what we did not have was a bunch of chinese fire drill "upgrade" excercises that hobbled peoples' devices and forced them to buy new stuff on a regular basis.

    Starting with the infamous digital "conversion" in 2009, the entire installed base of NTSC gear was rendered useless in one fell swoop. Everyone had run out and buy new stuff, or get one of those dubious converter boxes (subsidized with taxpayer money). And now, in some quarters, we're talking about it potentially happening again. Madness.

    During the 55 year run of the NTSC standard, we did not hobble the installed based every few years with a version "upgrade". Heck, even with the transition from black and white to color, the new color transmission standard was 100% backward compatible. Billions of dollars in consumer gear was not prematurely junked. People in ivory towers dreaming up new stuff need to have a little compassion towards other people's money (consumers).

    During the 55-year run of the NTSC standard, technology did not stagnate - it continued to progress. But it progressed around a common sense, stable, and predictable standard that did not unnecessarily introduce churn every few years. New innovations were deployed, around the standard. VCRs, Laser discs, and DVD players, around the standard. Gaming systems, around the standard. Projection systems, around the standard. New audio innovations, around the standard. Even DVRs, around the standard. The tail did not wag the dog.

    Perhaps people working on updates to the ATSC standard today should sit down and have a discussion with those still with us who invented and established television. And maybe those discussions should be philosophical, and not technical.

    The lesson here is that people who forget (or ignore) history are doomed to repeat it. And the 2009 conversion debacle was not that long ago.
     

Share This Page

spam firewall

Advertisements