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Old 07-31-2014, 12:48 PM   #61
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I'm not seeing how this para is unclear about support, but as you said there's no timeframe in it. I seriously doubt they're going to do anything to purposefully sabotage or abandon cards as long as they're working on a new standard, but after that we'll have to see what the take up is.

Under the terms of the agreement, Comcast commits to continue to provide and support
CableCARDs in retail devices notwithstanding the D.C. Circuit’s EchoStar decision last year
vacating certain CableCARD rules. Comcast will ensure that all CableCARD-enabled devices
will continue to have access to all linear channels in all Comcast markets.

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Old 07-31-2014, 02:00 PM   #62
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Tivo criticizes CableCARD coverage:

http://www.lightreading.com/cable-vi.../d/d-id/710116

Apparently the sky is falling if cableCos don't have to eat their own food anymore, not sure I'm buying it as long as the FCC orders are in place.
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Old 07-31-2014, 02:01 PM   #63
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For whatever it's worth, as of May Comcast had 348,799 deployed CableCARDs for retail devices and 21.7 million total video customers according to the NYT in February. That ~350k includes TiVo, Media Center, and whatever else and there could be more than 1 CableCARD per household.

Sources:
http://apps.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/view?id=7521120065
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/02/...ype=blogs&_r=0
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Old 07-31-2014, 02:32 PM   #64
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The problem is, the "not integrated" CableCards in their boxes and the CableCards in TiVos are living in two separate parallel universes.

I don't think we gained a single thing except hatred from the MSOs with the integrated security ban. Older boxes with integrated security and CableCard equipment, whether MSO or customer-owned work just fine together.
Do those integrated and non-integrated cards have different firmware? Is the cable company simply pretending to use them in their own boxes?

The cable companies had to get CableCards working so their own boxes would work. If they weren't forced to use CableCards themselves, they wouldn't work nearly as well as they do today. There's barely supporting something, and then there's fully supporting something.

The MSOs hate Tivo owners because supporting them is a huge PITA, and they don't buy any VOD or PPV which is a huge money-maker for the MSOs.
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Old 07-31-2014, 03:37 PM   #65
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Do those integrated and non-integrated cards have different firmware? Is the cable company simply pretending to use them in their own boxes?

The cable companies had to get CableCards working so their own boxes would work. If they weren't forced to use CableCards themselves, they wouldn't work nearly as well as they do today. There's barely supporting something, and then there's fully supporting something.

The MSOs hate Tivo owners because supporting them is a huge PITA, and they don't buy any VOD or PPV which is a huge money-maker for the MSOs.
In the order you posted:

Same firmware, different communication modes, and differences in what tables and data would be downloaded, depending on which type of box they go in (they can sense which).

Their boxes already had cablecards in them. They were just not "cards", but the components inside a card, instead soldered to the board. The integration ban just made them stop doing it that way, added to production costs per cable box/DVR, and still didn't make cablecards any better.

If I was a MSO, I'd hate TiVo too, unless I shielded myself from the big picture, and only looked at things from retail device maker/buyer/owner POVs.
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Old 07-31-2014, 04:17 PM   #66
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NCTA has more to say today on integration ban:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/new...blecard/132861
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Old 07-31-2014, 05:42 PM   #67
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Not for all Comcast franchises, I'm only paying $2.00 total for my second S3 for the 2 CableCards ($1.00 each).

Scott
Interesting. Yay Comcast, a whole bunch of different systems that charge different amounts for the same thing!
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Old 07-31-2014, 06:50 PM   #68
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Simple fact, if cableco's don't have to support cards in their equipment any longer, support for cable cards in third party boxes will suffer. FCC rules or not, as bad as they don't like them now, cable companies will hate them even worse.

2nd simple fact, cable companies see cable cards as something that cuts into their maximum possible income, they only welcome innovation if there is money to be made.

Yes there are possible better alternatives to cable cards for third party devices but unless there is a mandate from the FCC to implement such standard, such as what was attempted with cable cards, there will never be a recognized standard and this will mean the end of retail TiVos.
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Old 07-31-2014, 07:19 PM   #69
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Simple fact, if cableco's don't have to support cards in their equipment any longer, support for cable cards in third party boxes will suffer. FCC rules or not, as bad as they don't like them now, cable companies will hate them even worse.

2nd simple fact, cable companies see cable cards as something that cuts into their maximum possible income, they only welcome innovation if there is money to be made.

Yes there are possible better alternatives to cable cards for third party devices but unless there is a mandate from the FCC to implement such standard, such as what was attempted with cable cards, there will never be a recognized standard and this will mean the end of retail TiVos.
Exactly WHAT "support" is involved with making a box, slapping a card in, and never pulling that card out until the box is retired/scrapped (if even then, based on the "how to scrap cable boxes" YouTube videos I see)?

There is no cablecard "support" with MSO leased boxes! There is no pairing that requires any phone calls. Most every cablecard installed in a MSO box, remains there until the box hits the scrap heap.

The pairing can be done automatically, due to the bidirectional communication, and the box and card being able to be identified remotely, should the pairing somehow be dropped. No human interaction is even required.

Comparing a single cablecard (the same one), if installed in a MSO box, or installed in a Retail unit, is comparing apples to bowling balls.
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Old 08-01-2014, 07:03 AM   #70
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Yes there are possible better alternatives to cable cards for third party devices but unless there is a mandate from the FCC to implement such standard, such as what was attempted with cable cards, there will never be a recognized standard and this will mean the end of retail TiVos.
The FCC has completely abdicated its role in IP-standards development, starting with the disappearing act after the cableCos told them to pound sand on AllVid.

At this point the only hope we have is some sort of industry developed downloadable standard, the FCC is worthless here.
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Old 08-01-2014, 07:50 AM   #71
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At this point the only hope we have is some sort of industry developed downloadable standard, the FCC is worthless here.
And most of the industry isn't interested in subsidizing TiVo. They've got their iPad and Xbox apps, TWC even has Roku. TiVo is a thorn in the cable industry's side and FCC seems largely incapable and disinterested, as you say.
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Old 08-01-2014, 09:32 AM   #72
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And most of the industry isn't interested in subsidizing TiVo. They've got their iPad and Xbox apps, TWC even has Roku. TiVo is a thorn in the cable industry's side and FCC seems largely incapable and disinterested, as you say.
That's it, succinctly stated. IPTV will eventually prevail. What is scary about that is the monopoly status that cable MSO's have for internet service in a large fraction of the USA. However, IPTV will be demanded by a major segment of the population rather than the tiny percentage who care about TiVo. That huge political, and market, pressure will (hopefully) furnish the incentive for the MSO's and FCC to respond much better than they have to TiVo.

We can always hope that future technological developments will obsolete the cable MSO's current monopoly. Then it will be so satisfying to see them be forced to compete -- or go out of business. Nothing personal but I will welcome that day.
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Old 08-01-2014, 09:06 PM   #73
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However, IPTV will be demanded by a major segment of the population rather than the tiny percentage who care about TiVo.
LOL. Most people have no clue how they get their TV (QAM vs. IPTV), and far fewer actually care. They just know what channels it has, maybe how much it costs. No one is demanding IPTV, as the experience on a U-Verse IPTV box is pretty much exactly the same as on a QAM-based Comcast box.
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Old 08-01-2014, 10:28 PM   #74
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Do they really hate Tivo much? Tivo has 3-4x the number of MSO subs than retail subs.
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Old 08-02-2014, 11:12 AM   #75
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Do they really hate Tivo much? Tivo has 3-4x the number of MSO subs than retail subs.
That's just the thing. Retail is a small business for TiVo, and the MSOs that use TiVos will figure out with TiVo how to make them work, CableCard or not.
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Old 08-04-2014, 11:20 AM   #76
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LOL. Most people have no clue how they get their TV (QAM vs. IPTV), and far fewer actually care. They just know what channels it has, maybe how much it costs. No one is demanding IPTV, as the experience on a U-Verse IPTV box is pretty much exactly the same as on a QAM-based Comcast box.
Just worse video quality than even Comcast.
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Old 08-04-2014, 12:53 PM   #77
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Just worse video quality than even Comcast.
True, but only a small subset of people would notice degraded video quality From ATT U-Verse. (except people on this Forum)
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Old 08-04-2014, 05:07 PM   #78
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That's just the thing. Retail is a small business for TiVo....
Yes, retail is small, but it takes about 10 MSO subs to equal 1 retail sub revenue wise.
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Old 08-04-2014, 05:47 PM   #79
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Just worse video quality than even Comcast.
True. And that's pretty pathetic since Comcast is known for overcompression. It's pretty sad that almost no one cares about video quality.

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Yes, retail is small, but it takes about 10 MSO subs to equal 1 retail sub revenue wise.
True. But it also has higher customer acquisition costs, since the MSOs are handling that part of the process on that side. Are you sure it's 10:1? That sounds rather extreme.
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Old 08-04-2014, 11:22 PM   #80
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True. And that's pretty pathetic since Comcast is known for overcompression. It's pretty sad that almost no one cares about video quality.



True. But it also has higher customer acquisition costs, since the MSOs are handling that part of the process on that side. Are you sure it's 10:1? That sounds rather extreme.
I think the 10 to 1 (referred to above) is gross profit per sale, not a cost difference of 10 to 1.
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Old 08-05-2014, 01:48 PM   #81
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I think the 10 to 1 (referred to above) is gross profit per sale, not a cost difference of 10 to 1.
Yes, TiVo does not break out the numbers but they make roughly $10 a month on a retail TiVo owned sub. They make roughly $2 a month on US MSO subs and just under $1 on overseas MSO's.
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Old 08-05-2014, 03:02 PM   #82
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Yes, TiVo does not break out the numbers but they make roughly $10 a month on a retail TiVo owned sub. They make roughly $2 a month on US MSO subs and just under $1 on overseas MSO's.
Just to clarify, that's not how much they make, but it's how much revenue they bring in. More precisely, last year they had revenue of $8.60 monthly for the TiVo owned subs, and revenue of $1.16 monthly for each MSO sub.

They don't break out the cost of the service revenue between the TiVo owned and the MSO subs, but I would suspect almost all of it should be allocated to the TiVo owned subs (guide info, service center). So that's roughly a $4 monthly cost for each of the TiVo-owned subs.

That doesn't include the cost to get each TiVo owned sub (subscriber acquisition cost), which is right around $200 (as Bigg points out, that's not a cost for the MSO subs).

So it takes them about 4 years, at $4.60 net revenue per month, before they make back the $200 it cost them for a TiVo-owned sub. That's opposed to the MSO subs, which give them an immediate profit.
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Old 08-05-2014, 03:42 PM   #83
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Just to clarify, that's not how much they make, but it's how much revenue they bring in. More precisely, last year they had revenue of $8.60 monthly for the TiVo owned subs, and revenue of $1.16 monthly for each MSO sub.

They don't break out the cost of the service revenue between the TiVo owned and the MSO subs, but I would suspect almost all of it should be allocated to the TiVo owned subs (guide info, service center). So that's roughly a $4 monthly cost for each of the TiVo-owned subs.

That doesn't include the cost to get each TiVo owned sub (subscriber acquisition cost), which is right around $200 (as Bigg points out, that's not a cost for the MSO subs).

So it takes them about 4 years, at $4.60 net revenue per month, before they make back the $200 it cost them for a TiVo-owned sub. That's opposed to the MSO subs, which give them an immediate profit.
Correct, I was not stating profit. A retail sub brings in $9 in gross revenue, an MSO sub brings in a $1.

I don't think their sac is at $200 anymore, but if it was, they still need about 5 MSO's to 1 retail for the same amount of profit.

I was just pointing out that TiVo needs a lot more MSO subs before they can walk away from their TiVo owned and stay profitable.
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Old 08-05-2014, 04:11 PM   #84
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Correct, I was not stating profit. A retail sub brings in $9 in gross revenue, an MSO sub brings in a $1.

I don't think their sac is at $200 anymore, but if it was, they still need about 5 MSO's to 1 retail for the same amount of profit.

I was just pointing out that TiVo needs a lot more MSO subs before they can walk away from their TiVo owned and stay profitable.
I basically agree, but looking at it another way, after 5 years a TiVo owned sub will have brought in about the same net revenue (after SAC and service costs) as 5 years of an MSO sub. It's only after 5 years that a TiVo-owned sub will be substantially better. But lifetime sub revenue recognition ends after 5 1/2 years...

As a side note, I would argue that TiVo is not really profitable now, and won't be for another year or two at current rates. The only reason they appear profitable now is they are only slowly recognizing patent litigation settlement money that they've already received. Operationally, they are still losing money.
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Old 08-05-2014, 04:54 PM   #85
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I think the 10 to 1 (referred to above) is gross profit per sale, not a cost difference of 10 to 1.
Right, profit, but I have a hard time believing that the ratio is that big...
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Old 08-05-2014, 04:57 PM   #86
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Some retail units are sold through places like BestBuy too, that get a cut of the action, versus direct online sales, where TiVo keeps 100% (although they do have a little bit of cost to keep the website up, handle payments, shipping, etc). They have none of that with MSOs. Is that stuff all counted as part of SAC, or is SAC only the advertising and deals to get people in the "door" to buy a TiVo?
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Old 08-05-2014, 05:22 PM   #87
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Some retail units are sold through places like BestBuy too, that get a cut of the action, versus direct online sales, where TiVo keeps 100% (although they do have a little bit of cost to keep the website up, handle payments, shipping, etc). They have none of that with MSOs. Is that stuff all counted as part of SAC, or is SAC only the advertising and deals to get people in the "door" to buy a TiVo?
SAC also includes the difference between hardware revenue and the cost of hardware revenue (both of which would include the Best Buy sales) for the TiVo-owned subs. This difference is about $100 per unit, with the advertising and deals being another $100 per unit, for a total of $200 of SAC (from 2014 annual report).
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Old 08-06-2014, 11:03 AM   #88
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Right, profit, but I have a hard time believing that the ratio is that big...
You got me thinking. If TiVo gets $15 a month on a standalone and $1 on an MSO sub, how much of that $15 is pure profit?

Assuming The MSO's $1 is 100% profit, $10 of Standalone pure profit is not unreasonable.

There's your 10 to 1 ratio?
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Old 08-06-2014, 11:12 AM   #89
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You got me thinking. If TiVo gets $15 a month on a standalone and $1 on an MSO sub, how much of that $15 is pure profit?

Assuming The MSO's $1 is 100% profit, $10 of Standalone pure profit is not unreasonable.

There's your 10 to 1 ratio?
$10 profit on $15 is unreasonable at least in the first ~3 or 4 years.

No company I know of has a 66% profit margin.
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Old 08-06-2014, 11:26 AM   #90
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No company I know of has a 66% profit margin.

http://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/gross_profit_margin
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