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Old 11-26-2013, 07:13 AM   #1
ljknight
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4K HD and Tivo

What are the chances that these new Roamio's will be easily upgradable to support 4K HD?
I have read several articles recently, stating that 4K content is not that far down the road in 2014.

With the cost of getting to 4K viewing, I would hate to buy 2 Roamio's now, only to need to buy more in 18-24months.
That is assuming Tivo can have product out that quickly.

Thoughts?
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Old 11-26-2013, 08:23 AM   #2
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I'd put my money on zero before anything else.
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Old 11-26-2013, 08:44 AM   #3
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Viable 4K TV content (fps of 60 or higher) is going to require HDMI 2.0 connectors, which nothing has right now and why the Samsung 4K TVs broke out the HDMI ports (they are not in the TV, instead you have an add on board with all the ports) that way you will be able to buy a replacement board when 2.0 HDMI is available.

So no, I do not believe TiVo or anything else using the current 1.4a HDMI has the ability to deliver viable native 4K content to a 4K TV (I believe the current HDMI standard tops out at 30 fps with 4k content which is really not acceptable).

Also Native 4K content is likely to only be available using a new compression standard (h.265 I believe is what it is called) and who knows what can support that, again my guess is nothing out there now).
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Old 11-26-2013, 09:12 AM   #4
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You'll need specialized chips to support h.265 which the TiVo of course does not have.

HEck I wouldn't even want most of the 4K sets that are for sale right now because they do not have HDMI 2.0 and AFAIK most of them cannot be upgraded.
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Old 11-26-2013, 09:21 AM   #5
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Either way,a lot of TV Broadcasters have only just gone digital,meaning 720p,or 1080i in the last few years and 2 of them here in Ontario,Canada,only just this year.

This is a considerable expense,when(so they claim),less than 6%(some of them say 1%)of the poplulation watches TV via antenna,and believe it was an unnecessary expense,or they were forced by the FCC and CRTC into upgrading.

They're certainly not going to cough up dough to go 4K just like that.
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Old 11-26-2013, 09:49 AM   #6
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Either way,a lot of TV Broadcasters have only just gone digital,meaning 720p,or 1080i in the last few years and 2 of them here in Ontario,Canada,only just this year.

This is a considerable expense,when(so they claim),less than 6%(some of them say 1%)of the poplulation watches TV via antenna,and believe it was an unnecessary expense,or they were forced by the FCC and CRTC into upgrading.

They're certainly not going to cough up dough to go 4K just like that.
I don't expect OTA broadcasts to be 4K for decades, if ever. In fact I would say the chances of OTA being dropped all together are as great as it is that OTA will go 4K.
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Old 11-26-2013, 10:31 AM   #7
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I've been following 4K monitors for computers for a while, and it is still quite difficult to drive a 4K monitor at 60Hz even with high end video cards, mostly because the monitors have very weird configurations. The Sharp monitor, for instance looks like two separate monitors, each with 1920x2160 resolution - a resolution most video cards don't know how to support without firmware upgrades, etc. It is impossible to believe that the hardware which has to exist today in a TiVo could be adapted in any way to drive a 4K display when even computer interface standards haven't been really finalized.
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Old 11-26-2013, 10:59 AM   #8
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I've been following 4K monitors for computers for a while, and it is still quite difficult to drive a 4K monitor at 60Hz even with high end video cards, mostly because the monitors have very weird configurations. The Sharp monitor, for instance looks like two separate monitors, each with 1920x2160 resolution - a resolution most video cards don't know how to support without firmware upgrades, etc. It is impossible to believe that the hardware which has to exist today in a TiVo could be adapted in any way to drive a 4K display when even computer interface standards haven't been really finalized.
For 4K to make any difference, assuming you had some type of 4K source, would you not need a big screen like over 65", and the number of people that have a HDTV over 65" and can fit in a screen over 65" is a small % of US households. Of all the people I know only 1 has a screen over 65" (I have a 80" and the picture is so great that I would not spend the money on 4K for that size screen)
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Old 11-26-2013, 11:43 AM   #9
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For 4K to make any difference, assuming you had some type of 4K source, would you not need a big screen like over 65", and the number of people that have a HDTV over 65" and can fit in a screen over 65" is a small % of US households. Of all the people I know only 1 has a screen over 65" (I have a 80" and the picture is so great that I would not spend the money on 4K for that size screen)
I agree and even at 65" you would have to sit within a few feet to be able to see the increased resolution even if the content was available, in fact many people don't sit close enough to their TVs to be able to see the difference between 720p & 1080p (including me as I am 14ft from a 50" TV).
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Old 11-26-2013, 05:09 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by ljknight View Post
What are the chances that these new Roamio's will be easily upgradable to support 4K HD?
Zero

Quote:
I have read several articles recently, stating that 4K content is not that far down the road in 2014.
It is all marketing, just trying to get people to throw away equipment and buy new again and justify even higher prices. I think I read that more than half the population can't tell the difference between 480P and 720P with much more than half not being able to tell between 720P and 1080P. I suspect very few can really tell the difference between 1080P and 4K, especially if the TV is not over 70" and they are not sitting a few feet from it.

OTA doesn't even support 1080P.
Few cable companies even offer all their stations in HD yet.
Almost no cable companies support 4K.
No consumer discs support 4K and won't for a long while.

My guess is 4K is going to go nowhere for many years except maybe in a very tiny niche market for videophiles with huge 80+" displays.
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Old 11-27-2013, 01:13 AM   #11
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The BD association is planning on having a finalized BD spec sometime late this year or early next year for 4K with the hope to have the first 4K disc based players out in the second half of 2014. I read it's supposed to be 3 layer 100GB discs that they plan to use.
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Old 11-27-2013, 01:33 AM   #12
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The BD association is planning on having a finalized BD spec sometime late this year or early next year for 4K with the hope to have the first 4K disc based players out in the second half of 2014. I read it's supposed to be 3 layer 100GB discs that they plan to use.
I bet 4K will more like SVHS was in its time, a consumer flop for the most part.
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Old 11-27-2013, 08:40 AM   #13
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I bet 4K will more like SVHS was in its time, a consumer flop for the most part.

I'll take that bet. Why? Because 4K will become the norm just like 1080 is today (it's essentially impossible to find a 720 set nowadays). They'll just release 4K discs which will downconvert to 1080 if that's what your set handles.
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Old 11-27-2013, 08:40 AM   #14
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For 4K to make any difference, assuming you had some type of 4K source, would you not need a big screen like over 65", and the number of people that have a HDTV over 65" and can fit in a screen over 65" is a small % of US households. Of all the people I know only 1 has a screen over 65" (I have a 80" and the picture is so great that I would not spend the money on 4K for that size screen)
Until you see native 4K content on an 84" screen
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Old 11-27-2013, 09:18 AM   #15
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I bet 4K will more like SVHS was in its time, a consumer flop for the most part.
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I'll take that bet. Why? Because 4K will become the norm just like 1080 is today (it's essentially impossible to find a 720 set nowadays). They'll just release 4K discs which will downconvert to 1080 if that's what your set handles.
I believe TV manufactures will likely keep moving towards more 4K TVs as away to demand a premium price. But until HDMI 2.0 and blu-ray disks are available that can provide a native 4K movie; people are wasting their money buying into 4k at all. The issue with people not being able to see the difference on smaller sets (like anything less than 65") will remain forever so the tech will have to get real cheap for the masses to want anything to do with it. I don't know what band width will be needed to stream 4K but I am guessing it will be years and maybe decades before the Satellite and Cable companies will be willing to upgrade all their equipment to handle h.265 and like I said above I don't believe it will ever come to OTA broadcasts.

So from where I sit the market where 4K makes or will make any sense is very small. Basically people with large (65"+) sets, with great high speed Internet that comes with unlimited band width, or who want to buy 4K blu-ray disks.
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Old 11-27-2013, 11:09 AM   #16
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4K, like 3D, is another TV tech pushed by marketing and not by consumer interest. It's just another in a long line of features that are far ahead of what most folks care about, much less whether any source material takes advantage of it.

The good thing is that we'll all get it for cheap eventually since it will just be another feature on every set you can buy.
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Old 11-27-2013, 02:50 PM   #17
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Until you see native 4K content on an 84" screen

84" is bigger than 65" but how many people will have HDTV that big, it's a space and money problem, and space may be more of a problem than money for big TVs. Most of my friends have 45" to 55" size HDTVs so they can avoid a divorce from the wife.
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Old 11-27-2013, 05:56 PM   #18
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I'll take that bet. Why? Because 4K will become the norm just like 1080 is today (it's essentially impossible to find a 720 set nowadays). They'll just release 4K discs which will downconvert to 1080 if that's what your set handles.
Best buy sells over 100 720p sets. Something over 20% of the sets they have available for sale online are 720p. iF I remember correctly. If not then it is even more that they sell. Although the largest size they sell is around 55".

Edit: also I've read that the big push for h.265 use will be in cell phones. Once the chips are available they plan on incorporating it into new cell phones. But this is mainly a bandwidth saving measure, not anything to do with 4k.
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Old 11-27-2013, 06:03 PM   #19
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There's a good chance 4K will quickly go the way of betamax. There's just no content for it and none of the current major content distribution channels are planning for it. From what I've heard/read the next big thing in consumer televisions will probably be OLED.
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Old 11-27-2013, 07:03 PM   #20
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There's a good chance 4K will quickly go the way of betamax. There's just no content for it and none of the current major content distribution channels are planning for it. From what I've heard/read the next big thing in consumer televisions will probably be OLED.
I agree that OLED is likely the actual next big thing in TVs - at least for anyone who actually cares about picture quality. The issues appear to be that OLED is actually much harder and more costly tech than just pushing a LCD to 4K, so my guess is, as with most things, it's all about the money, manufactures are pushing 4K LCD TVs because they think they will be able to make more money.

Regarding content, there actually is plenty of 4K content as most new movies are shot in 8K and I don't think any are shot in less than 4K. The problem is finding an affordable away to deliver the 4k content to a 4k TV - which is just about impossible now.
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Old 11-27-2013, 07:16 PM   #21
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I agree that OLED is likely the actual next big thing in TVs - at least for anyone who actually cares about picture quality. The issues appear to be that OLED is actually much harder and more costly tech than just pushing a LCD to 4K,
Agreed.

When LED TV's come out, it will be interesting, but I think they are much further away than most people expect. And when they finally arrive, they are likely to be very, very expensive, and very small.

Meanwhile, LCD technology keeps getting better and better with each generation. The replacement of florescent with LED backlighting allowed them to use even less power, become more reliable (in theory) and get even thinner.
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Old 11-27-2013, 08:03 PM   #22
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I agree that OLED is likely the actual next big thing in TVs - at least for anyone who actually cares about picture quality. The issues appear to be that OLED is actually much harder and more costly tech than just pushing a LCD to 4K, so my guess is, as with most things, it's all about the money, manufactures are pushing 4K LCD TVs because they think they will be able to make more money.

Regarding content, there actually is plenty of 4K content as most new movies are shot in 8K and I don't think any are shot in less than 4K. The problem is finding an affordable away to deliver the 4k content to a 4k TV - which is just about impossible now.
I would take the 4k sets I saw at magnolia over the OLED set they had. The oled set did look nice, but it was very expensive for the size. Plus native 4k content blew away anything I saw on the oled set. Native 4k content seemed truly like looking through a window.
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Old 11-27-2013, 08:17 PM   #23
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H.265 isn't even ready yet. When were at NAB back in April all the H.265 encoders were "experimental" and could only encode with basic settings at ~7fps. We're still years away from H.265 becoming mainstream, and without H.265 4K is not even possible. I'm betting 5 years minimum before 4K content is available, and even then it will be severely limited.
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Old 11-27-2013, 10:28 PM   #24
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I would be happy if the content was delivered in 1080p before worrying about 4K. Only DirecTv and maybe DISH will have the bandwidth to even consider more than maybe one or two 4K channels anyway. Im waiting for an affordable 60" OLED that isnt curved. I would be much more interested in spending my cash on that.
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Old 11-28-2013, 02:35 AM   #25
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H.265 isn't even ready yet. When were at NAB back in April all the H.265 encoders were "experimental" and could only encode with basic settings at ~7fps. We're still years away from H.265 becoming mainstream, and without H.265 4K is not even possible. I'm betting 5 years minimum before 4K content is available, and even then it will be severely limited.
They already plan on having disc based 4K content out by the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2014. (They currently have hard drive based 4K content available for Sony 4K TVs)Of course there will certainly be much more 4K content available at the end of 2018 then there will be at the end of 2014. Just like there was much more HD content in 2010 than there was in 2006. Although I bought much more HD content in 2006 than I did in 2010

I know personally I'm in no rush to get a 4K TiVo since I doubt I will get a 4K TV anytime soon. My main 1080P set is 82" so there is no way I could go to a smaller set. And right now the 84" 4K sets are way too expensive. I would be surprised to see them down to a decent level anytime soon. Although the smaller 4K sets have been coming down, but I already sit 9 feet away from my 82" DLP set. I would need sit very close to one of the new small 4K sets to even get the benefit.
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Old 11-28-2013, 03:06 AM   #26
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Maybe, but there is a LOT of new tech involved here that has to fall inline. A brand new codec, a new 3 layer BD disc, players capable of playing the discs, HDMI 2.0, 4K TVs with HDMI 2.0 ports, A/V receivers with HDMI 2.0 ports and support for whatever audio codecs they decide to add to these discs. I'm just not sure it's all going to fall in line by the end of next year.
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Old 11-28-2013, 08:20 AM   #27
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I would be happy if the content was delivered in 1080p before worrying about 4K. Only DirecTv and maybe DISH will have the bandwidth to even consider more than maybe one or two 4K channels anyway. Im waiting for an affordable 60" OLED that isnt curved. I would be much more interested in spending my cash on that.
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Old 11-28-2013, 08:34 AM   #28
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Im waiting for an affordable 60" OLED that isnt curved. I would be much more interested in spending my cash on that.
Well, think of the bright side... You will have many years to save for it while waiting !
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Old 11-28-2013, 08:40 AM   #29
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I think LG has a 77-inch 4K OLED coming out. Don't remember f it's curved or not.

BTW, as stated here, there's a 4K disc format in the works, and the ATSC is working on a future (2017-2018) 4K standard. It's my understanding that H.265 can fit two 4K broadcasts in the same space as a single 1080i MPEG2 broadcast channel.

So by no means is 4K a dead end.
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Old 11-28-2013, 08:44 AM   #30
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Regarding content, there actually is plenty of 4K content as most new movies are shot in 8K and I don't think any are shot in less than 4K. The problem is finding an affordable away to deliver the 4k content to a 4k TV - which is just about impossible now.
Indeed, considering that the file size of a single movie shot in 4K can be up to 250GB (maybe even larger than that).
I don't think they make a hard drive big enough to make a 4K DVR worth owning.
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