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Old 05-14-2014, 09:39 PM   #1
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Survivor Cagayan : "Straw That Broke The Camel's Back" : OAD 5-14-2014

Tony misplayed that idol.

That was a Brains challenge if ever there was one, but Tony crushed three out of four puzzles. The slider puzzle must have been a new experience for him.
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Old 05-14-2014, 09:45 PM   #2
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I am SO confused.

Why would Tony vote Trish?

He could have given her the regular Idol. He then could have voted Woo. The vote would have ended up split one Kass, one Woo (Trish votes don't count). In the re-vote, he could have gotten rid of either one.

He lost the only true ally he had - whom he could have definitely won against.

Dumb.
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Old 05-14-2014, 09:59 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Fool Me Twice View Post
Tony misplayed that idol.
I think the idea you are going for (and it occurred to me too) was that he should have tried to get Trish under control to vote both of them for Woo, then played his idol for Trish to save her, so that Woo goes home. He'd then have his two most desirable (for him to win) opponents with him at the final 3. Now he's stuck with either Woo or Spenser (or both).

However, his bigger concern is not even making it to the final 3. And that's where his idea came from to trick everyone into thinking that his special idol can still be played next week. Playing the idol for himself this week was to reinforce that idea. Then, even though he's incredibly vulnerable (assuming he does win immunity), he's hoping people won't even consider voting for him.
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Old 05-14-2014, 10:49 PM   #4
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Tony's decision not to give the standard immunity idol to Trish was very puzzling to me. Until I saw that he voted for Trish as well. But that is puzzling also.

Maybe he thought that he could vote her out without her realizing that he had done so, thus locking up her jury vote. But the vote was 4-1, so he didn't need to actually vote for her.

Maybe he thought that Trish is more likely to get jury votes than Kass (I agree) and Woo (I strongly disagree).

And Spencer is too much of a Survivor nerd to fall for Tony's notion that the idol can be used to get into the final three. No way he falls for that.

The final scenarios:
  • Tony, Kass, and Woo: Tony wins big.
  • Tony, Kass, and Spencer: Tony edges out Spencer.
  • Tony, Woo, and Spencer: Tony edges out Spencer.
  • Woo, Kass, and Spencer: Spencer wins big.
Woo's only hope was a final three with Kass and Trish, and that can't happen now. He all but admitted during tonight's show that he was dreaming of being the final three, and not trying to win the game any more. He's done.

Kass hasn't had any hope in a long time. Her logic: she really hates Tony, therefore everybody really hates Tony, therefore she can beat Tony. I don't think she gets any votes against Tony.

Spencer had better figure out a way to get rid of Tony next week; if he doesn't, I don't think he can win.
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Old 05-14-2014, 11:01 PM   #5
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That was the best tribal council ever. I was literally laughing out loud. And then, when Kass gave Trish the finger. Oh my. Awesome.

Way to go Spence for winning immunity again. Interesting how both Tasha and Spence - brains - kept winning the immunities.

I don't think Kass has any hope of winning at all. Just seeing the jury's faces tonight sealed it.
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Old 05-14-2014, 11:30 PM   #6
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I don't know why Tony didn't just keep it for a souvenir if he was going to vote for Trish.
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Old 05-14-2014, 11:45 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by InterMurph View Post
Tony's decision not to give the standard immunity idol to Trish was very puzzling to me. Until I saw that he voted for Trish as well. But that is puzzling also.

Maybe he thought that he could vote her out without her realizing that he had done so, thus locking up her jury vote. But the vote was 4-1, so he didn't need to actually vote for her.

Maybe he thought that Trish is more likely to get jury votes than Kass (I agree) and Woo (I strongly disagree).

And Spencer is too much of a Survivor nerd to fall for Tony's notion that the idol can be used to get into the final three. No way he falls for that.

The final scenarios:
  • Tony, Kass, and Woo: Tony wins big.Not sure about this. Woo hasn't pissed anyone off. Tony likely wins, but it is close
  • Tony, Kass, and Spencer: Tony edges out Spencer.Spencer wins if he gets to the finals.
  • Tony, Woo, and Spencer: Tony edges out Spencer.Spencer wins if he gets to the finals.
  • Woo, Kass, and Spencer: Spencer wins big.Agreed
Woo's only hope was a final three with Kass and Trish, and that can't happen now. He all but admitted during tonight's show that he was dreaming of being the final three, and not trying to win the game any more. He's done.

Kass hasn't had any hope in a long time. Her logic: she really hates Tony, therefore everybody really hates Tony, therefore she can beat Tony. I don't think she gets any votes against Tony.

Spencer had better figure out a way to get rid of Tony next week; if he doesn't, I don't think he can win.
my thoughts in red above
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Old 05-15-2014, 12:02 AM   #8
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I don't know why Tony didn't just keep it for a souvenir if he was going to vote for Trish.
Because he's trying to give the illusion that he can use the special one next week but since he can't he'll still have a souvenir.
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Old 05-15-2014, 12:35 AM   #9
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I think by letting Trish go (his biggest ally) Tony may have just lost the game. If he doesn't win immunity next week, he's gone. If he does win immunity most likely Spence is gone, and Tony sits next to Kass and Woo in the finals, and probably wins. But if it's a "bitter jury" he may not.

But I just don't think Tony has much of a chance to win immunity. Has he won anything besides the mud challenge tonight?
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Old 05-15-2014, 12:37 AM   #10
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my thoughts in red above
Why do you think Spencer would win against Tony? In my mind Tony has the edge. He was just more of a "player" than Spencer was.

Spencer has won immunity challenges when he's needed to, though.
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Old 05-15-2014, 01:12 AM   #11
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Why do you think Spencer would win against Tony? In my mind Tony has the edge. He was just more of a "player" than Spencer was.

Spencer has won immunity challenges when he's needed to, though.
I disagree they have both been players and have played completely different roles. Tony is the classic alpha male in the dominant alliance and has pretty much decided who goes when. Spencer is a survivor. He has been the underdog, has never been in the dominant position, has won challenges when he's needed to, used Tony's paranoia against him when he's needed to and has done whatever it takes to stay in the game. There have been past players that have won in both roles.
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Old 05-15-2014, 03:41 AM   #12
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Why do you think Spencer would win against Tony? In my mind Tony has the edge. He was just more of a "player" than Spencer was. Spencer has won immunity challenges when he's needed to, though.
I agree with bryhamm that Spencer wins if he gets to the finals. At that point, it's not so much about how well either of them played the game. It's more about who is on the jury. Here's the jury so far:

Sarah: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Morgan: Was in an alliance with Spencer
LJ: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony
Jeremiah: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Jefra: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony
Tasha: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Trish: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony

Tony would need at least four votes to win. Let's assume Woo is the final jury member and he votes for Tony. Where are Tony's other three votes going to come from?
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Old 05-15-2014, 06:53 AM   #13
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I agree with bryhamm that Spencer wins if he gets to the finals. At that point, it's not so much about how well either of them played the game. It's more about who is on the jury. Here's the jury so far:

Sarah: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Morgan: Was in an alliance with Spencer
LJ: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony
Jeremiah: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Jefra: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony
Tasha: Was in an alliance with Spencer
Trish: Backstabbed and blindsided by Tony

Tony would need at least four votes to win. Let's assume Woo is the final jury member and he votes for Tony. Where are Tony's other three votes going to come from?
I agree except I think Trish & maybe Sarah still vote for Tony. Who knows what they don't show though.
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Old 05-15-2014, 07:26 AM   #14
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I thought they only showed 3-1 votes so I'm a little surprised everyone here says Tony voted for Trish. I guess I'll have to watch again!

I think Tony's plan is absolutely brilliant and now I think he deserves the million dollars. If he can convince people that the special idol can be played at the next TC, he is in the final 3. Just telling the jury that one bit would be enough to sway enough of them to vote for him.
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Old 05-15-2014, 07:33 AM   #15
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I thought they only showed 3-1 votes so I'm a little surprised everyone here says Tony voted for Trish. I guess I'll have to watch again!
Two ways you know:

1) They only showed one vote for Kass. If there had been a second vote, they would have gotten it to be 2-2 first, before revealing the 3rd vote for Trish. Thus it was really 4-1 Trish

2) They showed Tony's vote during the credits.
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Old 05-15-2014, 07:35 AM   #16
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I didn't realize Tony had voted for Trish until the final moments of the show when they show all the votes and Trish saying her good byes /thoughts to the camera. I was surprised at this. Will she even know that Tony voted for her or just that Spence, Kass and Woo did?
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Old 05-15-2014, 07:37 AM   #17
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I didn't realize Tony had voted for Trish until the final moments of the show when they show all the votes and Trish saying her good byes /thoughts to the camera. I was surprised at this. Will she even know that Tony voted for her or just that Spence, Kass and Woo did?
Yes, as I mentioned above, she would know since they only showed one vote for Kass (and she knew she was the one that wrote it).

The producers always stack the vote before Jeff reads it so it lasts as long as possible before revealing who is out.
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Old 05-15-2014, 08:30 AM   #18
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Plus as someone said, they always show all the votes as they are cast while the person is giving their final confessional after the previews.

I don't really see how throwing away the idol tonight strengthened his case about the special one being able to be played next week. He could have said "I'll just keep this one as a souvenir" rather than "this one can stay on the island".
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Old 05-15-2014, 08:47 AM   #19
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So could Woo still be aligned with Tony? He keeps agreeing to go against Tony but always votes with him.
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:00 AM   #20
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The only thing that makes sense to me about the way Tony voted is he knew they were voting Trish, so he voted with them to seem to agree while trying to maintain the illusion that he can still use the special idol next week. But as mentioned, that will never work. So really dumb move. I think his instinct earlier in the episode to get rid of Woo was correct.
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:11 AM   #21
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I did love the mud challenge. What fun! And Tony did a great job of gathering it all over his body. I would have tried to put it on my shoulders and on my arms and then hold them so it wouldn't fall off so much. Not "carrying" it per se, but using the body.
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:30 AM   #22
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Plus as someone said, they always show all the votes as they are cast while the person is giving their final confessional after the previews.

I don't really see how throwing away the idol tonight strengthened his case about the special one being able to be played next week. He could have said "I'll just keep this one as a souvenir" rather than "this one can stay on the island".
He used the regular idol just in case they blindsided him. If they had, he would have had to use the special idol and would now be in a bad spot at the next TC (unless he won immunity, of course).

By using the regular idol under a false pretense, he ensured that he would keep the lie about "special idol which can be used at the next TC".
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:54 AM   #23
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Besides being really snarky with her comments and yes as Trish said that smirky grin on her face all season - does anyone think Kass did play a good/decent game. I mean, she got to the final Four. She did cause chaos in the tribe. She played Tony with all his paranoia and her lying about what went on in discussions. It may not have been "nice" but neither has all the stuff Tony has done.

Now Woo and Spencer - I think if they could give beat Kass in the end but maybe not Tony. I mean, we have seen players like him before get votes because of how they pitched the end speech and how the jury said "well, we don't like him but he did play the game".

Would love to see Spencer and Tony at the end.
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Old 05-15-2014, 09:59 AM   #24
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Trish said that she's gotten along with everyone, but wasn't it her that caused the woman to quit early in the season?
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Old 05-15-2014, 10:01 AM   #25
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Dalton's recap http://tvrecaps.ew.com/recap/survivo...sode-12-recap/
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Old 05-15-2014, 10:03 AM   #26
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After watching Ponderosa this week...

Spoiler:
I don't think Tony has a chance to win against this jury

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Old 05-15-2014, 10:09 AM   #27
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After watching Ponderosa this week...

Spoiler:
I don't think Tony has a chance to win against this jury
Spoiler:
I agree.

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Old 05-15-2014, 10:27 AM   #28
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If he can convince people that the special idol can be played at the next TC, he is in the final 3. Just telling the jury that one bit would be enough to sway enough of them to vote for him.
The only trouble with that is Tony already told Woo that was his plan.
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Old 05-15-2014, 10:35 AM   #29
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After watching Ponderosa this week...

Spoiler:
I don't think Tony has a chance to win against this jury
Spoiler:
That is good news but we have been led to believe that before...

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Old 05-15-2014, 11:52 AM   #30
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I give Tony props...but I'd be very disappointed if the rules were not fully explained to the contestants regarding the super idol. It is not fair to introduce something new to the game without a full explination of it.
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