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Old 06-27-2012, 11:35 AM   #1
pmyers
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Property Wars Premiers July 12th on Discovery

This is actually a show that a good friend of mine is a main part of here in the Phoenix area

http://youtu.be/hdGmbQqX-z4

The business is crazy so I'm hoping for good things on the show!

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Old 06-27-2012, 03:30 PM   #2
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Cool - will you be able to tell us everything that's fake on the show?


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Old 06-27-2012, 04:26 PM   #3
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Cool - will you be able to tell us everything that's fake on the show?

Well I can certianly ask questions but I have no inside info myself.

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Old 06-27-2012, 04:40 PM   #4
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Is there some reason why it sounds like the voice over guy is trying to imitate Thom Beers?

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Old 06-27-2012, 06:33 PM   #5
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Cool - will you be able to tell us everything that's fake on the show?

Another "insert whatever here" Wars show on Discovery/History/Spike/cable channel? You can pretty much assume most of it's fake.

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Old 07-02-2012, 08:33 AM   #6
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I'm confused why it's foreclosures sight-unseen. I understand not being able to get into the house, but most foreclosure buyers I know at least inspect the outside of the house, and the inside from what they can see.

It is somewhat confusing from the preview, but I will be watching.

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Old 07-12-2012, 02:56 PM   #7
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Just a bump for this as it premiers tonight. I'll be glad to ask any questions to my buddy who is a main focus of the show.

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Old 07-13-2012, 09:28 AM   #8
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Anybody watch and have comments?

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Old 07-13-2012, 11:45 AM   #9
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Brutal. Unwatchable. SP deleted.

So much staging going on that nothing is real. The person at the auction is clearly a re-creation of events, only the principals in the show being the ones pacing in front of the houses is a re-creation, the phony entrance and see what you've ended up buying is a re-creation, and then at the end the amount of money they "made" is like Storage Wars, having no basis in fact. C'mon, the guy didn't go look over the back fence from the alley? Give me a break.

The real estate agents roll up and open the lockbox to let the winning bidder in, which they could have done at any point prior to the phony auction -OR- the auction purchase was made long enough prior for the winnning bidders agent to have already hung a lockbox and they have to arrive to let the owner in to a home they already bought, just for effect. Like the cutting of the management locks on Storage Wars.

It's just far too much staging and BS for me to last through another 30 minutes.


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Old 07-13-2012, 09:39 PM   #10
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Which one was your friend? I'm guessing Doug because he was the East Valley guy and you're in Gilbert.
How much of the show is staged? It looked like it was quite a bit. There were a 150 houses up for auction this morning, so the odds of the people highlighted on the show going to the same three houses is pretty ridiculous.

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Old 07-15-2012, 04:27 PM   #11
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Essentially this show documents a fake bidding process followed by a reveal of the property...

It's too anticlimactic since we'll never know what they actually made (or lost) on the properties. For a "wars" show, there are too many unknowns after the "projected profit" is thrown out there. Storage Wars naturally has the same limitation, but it feels a lot less significant since the items are usually already in a salable condition even if the given estimates are often laughable.

I understand there was no desire to create yet another show documenting the work of flipping a property, but this show seems to be focusing on and trying to sex up one of the most mundane aspects of the flipping process. I can't say I'm interested in watching it again.

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Old 07-16-2012, 11:52 AM   #12
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Totally scripted.

I'm glad the idiot from Brooklyn bought the smoke damaged apartment.

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Old 07-16-2012, 05:51 PM   #13
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Which one was your friend? I'm guessing Doug because he was the East Valley guy and you're in Gilbert.
How much of the show is staged? It looked like it was quite a bit. There were a 150 houses up for auction this morning, so the odds of the people highlighted on the show going to the same three houses is pretty ridiculous.
I'm at work but I'll answer your questions later tonight.

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Old 07-16-2012, 07:18 PM   #14
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Totally scripted.

I'm glad the idiot from Brooklyn bought the smoke damaged apartment.
And I hope he's not pmyers's friend.

Another thing that struck me is how small their planned profits were. The one guy (who is probably pmyer's friend) hit two home runs, but a lot of the other houses had very small profit.

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Old 07-16-2012, 08:00 PM   #15
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Nobody made any profit. The producers determine who's a winner and loser for the purposes of the show. Until the property is rehabilitated and all the uncovered problems and labor is paid for, the carrying costs figured during the time they hold it, all the costs of sale (including commissions, taxes, transfer fees, HOA fees, inspection fees, home warranties, etc.) computed and the value of your time spent messing with it all are figured, there is no way to know what the profit is.

It's the same as the guy on storage wars holding up a bag of #hit and saying "there's a $40 bill right there". Saying so doesn't mean squat. That's why Dave Hester is flat broke. You rarely saw him ever lose on a storage unit, according to him EVERYTHING was worth triple what he paid.....but he can't pay his rent.

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Old 07-16-2012, 10:35 PM   #16
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Nobody made any profit. The producers determine who's a winner and loser for the purposes of the show. Until the property is rehabilitated and all the uncovered problems and labor is paid for, the carrying costs figured during the time they hold it, all the costs of sale (including commissions, taxes, transfer fees, HOA fees, inspection fees, home warranties, etc.) computed and the value of your time spent messing with it all are figured, there is no way to know what the profit is.

It's the same as the guy on storage wars holding up a bag of #hit and saying "there's a $40 bill right there". Saying so doesn't mean squat. That's why Dave Hester is flat broke. You rarely saw him ever lose on a storage unit, according to him EVERYTHING was worth triple what he paid.....but he can't pay his rent.
That's why I said planned profit. You missed my point. We both agree that the values are pulled out of thin air and it doesn't mean that they'll get that.

That's why I was surprised that those "pie in the sky" values were so low to begin with.


Last edited by verdugan; 07-17-2012 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 07-17-2012, 01:10 AM   #17
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I agree. Both my wife and I were surprised at how low they set the phony margin. Not worth the risks involved. The problem is, you can so easily slip into treating this show like it's real, but then you remember that it's all fiction so why would they care what the numbers are, it's all for TV. Joe Sixpack probably thinks making 10k for "doing nothing" is a sweet gig.

This show is just as hokey as Operation Repo, just with less chance of terrible acting.

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Old 07-17-2012, 12:32 PM   #18
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I have to say, this show belongs more on TruTV than Discovery. It was pretty bad. I will give it another shot this week, but I have little hope for it turning around.

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Old 07-17-2012, 12:49 PM   #19
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Sorry for the delay.

Yes, it is Doug that I know. I'm certainly no expert in his business but I do have some insights that I'm sure of.

I'd say this show is a Caracheture of how it really is.
The main difference on the show are that these guys (or at least Doug) are buying 10 (I actually have no idea how many but I know it is a LOT) or more properties PER day so of course he isn't personally going out to these properties and standing out in front staring these guys in the face to see who wins. That is just manufactured to produce drama for the show.

The other main difference is that these houses arent being bid on "sight unseen" most of the time. They aren't showing them jumping over the wall or "nudging" a window open to see if the house has been trashed. Yes, there can be surprises but not near as much of a gamble as is portrayed. A lot of the time there are people actually still living there (which they won't show) that have to be vacated....which can be interesting. Sometimes the people will actually let them in to check it out and other times they chase them out with guns!

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Old 07-17-2012, 12:51 PM   #20
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Nobody made any profit. The producers determine who's a winner and loser for the purposes of the show. ...
That I can say is absolutely not true.

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Old 07-17-2012, 12:55 PM   #21
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My point was not that there wasn't any money made, my point was that when the producers state each character's "profit" on the scoreboard at the end of the show that that is completely false. What's shown is not profit, what's shown is the difference between what they paid (adding in an estimate of what they guess their costs will be) and what they say they can sell it for, gross. That's not profit, that's fantasy.

I'm an active real estate broker in addition to an owner of a business you already know about, there is money to be made doing what they're doing, but it's nothing like what is portrayed on this show.

There is also no mention made of the assumption of any liens against the properties either. Many of these distressed properties will have liens against them that remain, and are the responsibility of the winning bidder.


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Old 07-17-2012, 01:14 PM   #22
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I'm curious is when they are filming them in front of the houses, if the properties have already been purchased or not or do they get the group together, look at the list of houses that day and pick one that everyone may be interested in, go to that house and film the bidding during the auction.

I read somewhere that there are 100's of houses up for auction each day but most of them aren't even bid on because the starting prices, which are set by the banks, are above market value.

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Old 07-17-2012, 01:23 PM   #23
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...I'm a real estate broker in addition to an owner of a business you already know about, there is money to be made doing what they're doing, but it's nothing like what is portrayed on this show.
Oh your correct there. Those numbers are based on "comps" and if they sold to the actual home owner. Just like Storage Wars numbers are based on some magical retail number.

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Old 07-17-2012, 01:26 PM   #24
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I'm curious is when they are filming them in front of the houses, if the properties have already been purchased or not or do they get the group together, look at the list of houses that day and pick one that everyone may be interested in, go to that house and film the bidding during the auction...
I don't know the answer to that but I can ask.

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Old 07-17-2012, 01:34 PM   #25
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I don't have firsthand knowledge, but it's pretty clear that what we see is all reenactment, like Operation Repo. The homes have already been purchased at auction, and on the days there isn't an auction happening they gather all of the actors and film their scripted play. Notice that there isn't any footage of an actual auction, just two guys on the phone to each other with voiceovers added. They're probably standing 10' from each other while 2 cameras film them independently.

Also, the one and only episode I watched showed a front door with a lockbox on it prior to the phony auction, which was the same lockbox that the winning bidder's agent used to ostensibly let him in to see if for the first time after the auction. She could only have hung that lockbox with a key in it after receiving the key from the winning bidder. Often, flippers will hang combo lockboxes (not the MLS lockboxes) on properties to allow for service providers to gain access while they're working on the homes. Also, it's easier to have a key at the site when showing the property than it is to have all sorts of keys hanging at the office or in your car.

I too read that report you did about there being 100's of home on the list but very few sell at auction. The story I read was dated 2008, so there has likely been quite a few changes in the last 4 years. Banks may be more willing to dump the properties at auction by pricing more aggressively than they were in 2008. I've read that foreclosures cost mortgagors an average of about 70k with all of the process and carrying costs, so they've realized that it's better to dump them than carry them. This is the basis for short sales, they FINALLY figured out it's better to take a (for example) $50k hit than a $70k or more hit by foreclosing.

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Old 07-17-2012, 01:37 PM   #26
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Oh your correct there. Those numbers are based on "comps" and if they sold to the actual home owner. Just like Storage Wars numbers are based on some magical retail number.
What would be very interesting is to have a sort of "results" show. Go over the past 10 or 12 purchases and actually show what happened to the properties and how it turned out. With so many people interested in flipping and all that comes with it (power tools, design, paint color choosing, pitfalls, etc) you'd think that type of reality show would be a home run.

I have the same wish for Shark Tank, tell us what really happened a few months down the road.

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Old 07-17-2012, 01:45 PM   #27
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...Notice that there isn't any footage of an actual auction, just two guys on the phone to each other with voiceovers added. They're probably standing 10' from each other while 2 cameras film them independently...
I'm actually surprised they aren't showing the actual auctions. I assume somebody must prohibit it because they are high drama. That's probably why they have to recreate it in front of the houses.

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Old 07-17-2012, 02:08 PM   #28
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I would guess they don't film the auctions because they can't control who will win which house. There would be hours of footage and multiple cameras that would have to be rolling and no guarantee that one of the characters would win. In the case of Storage Wars, the producers can insure a win by one of their characters by seeding them with whatever cash they need to win the locker. They can do that when the bids are no more than a few thousand bucks at most, but they can't do that when the bids are $80k+ on a home in Arizona.

Plus, it's much cheaper and more sanitary to just film everything after the fact, like a high school play.

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Old 07-20-2012, 04:26 PM   #29
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Funny. In ep3 they showed a quick clip of my office building before they showed the first house. I have no idea why. It was miles away from any of the property that was on the show.

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Old 07-22-2012, 04:30 PM   #30
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It's staged. I've purchased at auction with the assistance of a bidding company and no one stands around in front of a house. Time is way too valuable for the top players to drive these properties. Typically they have drivers do driveby reports for their clients who have selected from the daily lists or email blast properties and wholesale them to buyers. The auctions are way too random with multiple locations so getting enough quality footage would be very difficult.
One last thing...inventory here in Phx is down significantly, so banks aren't dumping properties via auction to rid their surplus. They control their inventory and we are steadily seeing prices increase. YTD we have seen an increase in prices of about 25%.

I couldn't find Jokake listed in MLS yet.

Below is mkt info from my bidding company received 7/22/12:

Overall supply of new listings is still down compared with prior years. At the end of June, 55,878 new listings had been added to ARMLS in 2012 excluding those outside Greater Phoenix. The equivalent in 2011 was 66,967, so we are missing 17% year to date. In other words we have only had 5 months worth of new listings in the first 6 month of 2012. The comparison with 2010 is more extreme, when we had seen 77,413 new listings by the end of June. Compared with 2010 we are down 28% year to date. The peak year for new listings was 2006. By June 2006 we had seen 95,078, so we are down 41% from this level. In the first 4 months of 2006 we had seen more new listings than in the first 6 months of 2012. In retrospect we can see how new listings were overwhelming the market in early 2006.

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