Tivo introducing a Terabyte Tivo?

[techieunite]

I had to call Tivo today about some problems with my Tivo HD pulling shows from my series 2 box.

In part of the conversation, we got to talking about people upgrading their boxes.

The rep I spoke with said that he had once spoken with a guy who had a Tivo Series 1. This Series 1 had a terabyte of space. The guy was having problems with the unit not working correctly, go figure.

Anyway, I told him about Weeknees, and how they already sell pre-imaged hard drives and brand new tivos with upgraded hard drives.

So the rep said that they are working on releasing a Tivo HD with a Terabyte size drive.

I asked him about pricing. He said it would be about $1500. Obviously, this is a really high price. The tivo HD with a 160gb only costs $299 list.

I'm thinking mail in rebates for the Tivo HD are going to be in the works. This would help push those still with Series 2's to the HD. Obviously not everybody will upgrade, but up until this point there were no mail in rebates on the Tivo HD.(Yes I know there have been rebates on the original Tivo Series 3)

What would you pay for a Terabyte tivo? You can already pickup a terabyte sata drive for around $200, maybe less. That with the cost of a new Tivo is only $500.

Where is Tivo getting the other $1000? Maybe the unit will be upgraded Series 3 unit (not Tivo HD) that also works with multistream cable cards. This would of course be a niche item, like the original Series 3 aimed at the upper elite home theatre enthusiasts.(and anybody with a credit card)

Only Time will tell. Anybody else have any juicy bits of information? Most of mine is just speculation, but the rep said that something is in the works.

**maybe they realized how many people were upgrading their Tivo HD's and Series 3, and finally wanted a piece of the pie**

[Playloud]

Nobody in their right mind would pay $1500 for a Terabyte Tivo HD. I might pay $500...

[c3]

There is absolutely no way it will be $1500, unless it's gold plated. Should be $200-$300 more than the current 160GB model.

[ZeoTiVo]

second thread on this - I think a TiVo CSR is either bored or misinformed. or Maybe the CSR is thinking of going into the upgrade business and finding a price point.

But sure a TB TiVo HD for 500$ would sell me. Buy it and no need to do the upgrade stuff, save me an afternoon, though I do like having the backup Hard drive , just in case.

[fallingwater]

Absolutely TiVo should offer a Tb TiVo right from the get go! Likewise TiVo should make a reasonable but decent profit on it.

A few questions from a mass-market sales perspective:

What is the approximate price difference at the wholesale level between a 160 Gb HDD and a 1 Tb HDD? Would $100 added to that be a reasonable profit for TiVo or would they probably expect more?

Lastly, is there a relationship between the size of a HDD and its probability of failure over time with bad sectors developing? Would it be practical for TiVo to upgrade its s/w at reasonable cost to be able to recognize bad sectors as they developed on a large drive and automatically skip them?

[classicsat]

Consider they are drives manufactured specifically for DVR service.

Also consider that that big a DVR would be considered a premium device. While $1500 is way out there, $500 is about a practical price point, at least to get the first buyers of the product, if it is just a big HDD in it.

IMHO, I think it might be more likely for WD to issue their 1TB DVR expander, or at least they will be first.

[Adam1115]

Originally Posted by classicsat

Consider they are drives manufactured specifically for DVR service.

Also consider that that big a DVR would be considered a premium device. While $1500 is way out there, $500 is about a practical price point, at least to get the first buyers of the product, if it is just a big HDD in it.

IMHO, I think it might be more likely for WD to issue their 1TB DVR expander, or at least they will be first.

A premium device?

Sorry but as we get more and more HD content, 100 hours isn't going to be considered that premium.

I think they are going to have a hard time if they only offer a 16 hour model....

They are MUCH better off releasing a $399 terabyte model for people who recognize that 16 hours isn't nearly enough.

[jhimmel]

Originally Posted by Adam1115

A premium device?

Sorry but as we get more and more HD content, 100 hours isn't going to be considered that premium.

I think they are going to have a hard time if they only offer a 16 hour model....

They are MUCH better off releasing a $399 terabyte model for people who recognize that 16 hours isn't nearly enough.

I have to agree. As Adam has stated, with increasing HD content, the smaller drives are becoming impractical if not obsolete.

With the new FiOS lineup, I have just about every major network, educational, sports, and premium channel in HD. A standard, un-expanded/upgraded TiVo will start to look silly from a capacity standpoint.

Mine have three times the capacity of a standard S3, and I still have to be careful about going through my recordings to weed stuff out in time. 95% of my recordings are HD.

Drives are fairly cheap (and dropping) - even DVR "tuned" drives. It's time for larger capacity base models and certainly larger "approved" expanders.

Jim H.

[MickeS]

A TiVoHD with 2TB is $999, and a Series 3 with 2TB is $1,299 at dvrupgrade.com - and that's already with a premium added compared to DYI.

So there is just no way that a factory TiVo would cost $1500 for 1 TB.

Why do people keep trusting that CSRs know what they talk about?

[EVizzle]

Originally Posted by MickeS

So there is just no way that a factory TiVo would cost $1500 for 1 TB.

Why do people keep trusting that CSRs know what they talk about?

Or why do people trust someone typing about a "conversation" they had with a "person who works for Tivo"?

[killzone]

A 1Tb SATA drive goes for under $150.

[classicsat]

Originally Posted by Adam1115

A premium device?
Sorry but as we get more and more HD content, 100 hours isn't going to be considered that premium.

But from the perspective of a catalog SKU, a 1TB DVR (compared to the 160GB unit), especially if new, would be considered some sort of premium, and could garner a premium price.

[jlb]

At some point, the underlying operations of a TiVo box will have to be heavily upgraded to handle the indexing and processing of such large recording capacity.

For us, it's easy. We just popped on a DVR Expander. We just have Comcast lifeline for the QAM locals HDs. the 80+ hours will be fine for us for a very long time.

[tivoupgrade]

... if TiVo goes back into the 'high-end' of the marketplace.

In the past, when TiVo has offered higher capacity, higher price-point units, it has not been worth their while (The HDR612 was a dismal failure).

Its easy for folks like us to offer these large units because the procurement and support model is much easier for small and agile little shops like ours. We can purchase our inventory 'just in time' and take on the support and Q&A aspects ourselves. If the prices of drives drop, we can lower our prices somewhat without losing our shirts because we try not to overbuy inventory.

For TiVo to offer a high-capacity product, they will most certainly have to charge more than we would and with such a high price point, it will not be as high volume a product as say, the TiVo HD.

BUT, they will still need to procure relatively large numbers of drives because they'll need to need to make the product available throughout their channel. And of course, the prices of the drives, in the open marketplace, will continue to drop as higher capacity drives become available (next year, you will see 1.5TB and 2.0TB drives and that will force down the prices of 1TB drives...)

In the end, TiVo's bread & butter is service revenue, so unless something has fundamentally changed (I have not read their latest annual report, cover to cover), I don't know that they could make a lot of money selling a high-end TiVo with some margin in it.

I'd like to think they look to folks like us to service the demand for higher capacity units, but then again, they may have decided they want that segment for themselves. In a sense, they have already sent that message by offering an upgrade path for external drives, so it just doesn't seem prudent to augment their current offering with larger internal drives, as well.

It will be interesting to see whether this is a rumor that is "truth without a date" or just some guy in the call center who either misheard or misunderstood something.

Lou

[atmuscarella]

I don't know that they could make a lot of money selling a high-end TiVo with some margin in it.

I'd like to think they look to folks like us to service the demand for higher capacity units,...

There is a lot of difference between a "high-end" and "higher capacity" TiVo. I would think there might be room for a high-end TiVo, with higher capacity being one of the extras. After all people are still seeking out and buying the original Series 3 unit a high-end replacement unit based on the TiVo HD platform isn't really all that crazy.

Thanks,

[tivoupgrade]

Originally Posted by atmuscarella

There is a lot of difference between a "high-end" and "higher capacity" TiVo. I would think there might be room for a high-end TiVo, with higher capacity being one of the extras. After all people are still seeking out and buying the original Series 3 unit a high-end replacement unit based on the TiVo HD platform isn't really all that crazy.

Thanks,

Well, I meant "high-capacity"... but with that said...

There do not appear to be many people out there seeking out the original Series3 units. If there are, they are not willing to pay the premium for them, even with the $200 rebate (that is now expired); I can tell you that from experience - we still have plenty of them in inventory.

So... that begs the question: If lots of people aren't willing to pay a $150 premium for 80% more recording capacity, and the additional features of the Series3, then how many high-capacity TiVo boxes do you really think TiVo will sell when a TiVo HD plus an external drive will meet the needs of many people as it is?

[edit] I'm not saying that there isn't a market for it; but I am saying that it is somewhat limited and definitely smaller than the markets TiVo is already pursuing. It doesn't make sense to me that TiVo would make an investment in pursuing an even smaller segment of the market than they are already appealing to, and that it would make more sense to continue focusing on higher-volume opportunities (like the one just announced with DIRECTV) to increase their acceptance in the marketplace...)

[atmuscarella]

So... that begs the question: If lots of people aren't willing to pay a $150 premium for 80% more recording capacity, and the additional features of the Series3,

I agree I wouldn't pay extra for a Series 3 now either - it's older tech and discontinued. Now build a new TiVo with the latest tech, a Terabyte drive, a blu-ray player/recorder, the ability to control STBs & record HD through component inputs, the ability to record 3+ shows at once, THX certified, special remote, etc. and maybe you have a current high-end product that people will buy, $1500 still sounds high but maybe at $999 it wouldn't be half bad.

Thanks,

PS: As you can see when I say high-end I actual mean high-end

[classicsat]

Originally Posted by tivoupgrade

It will be interesting to see whether this is a rumor that is "truth without a date" or just some guy in the call center who either misheard or misunderstood something.

I am going to say just wait a day.

[Adam1115]

Originally Posted by classicsat

But from the perspective of a catalog SKU, a 1TB DVR (compared to the 160GB unit), especially if new, would be considered some sort of premium, and could garner a premium price.

From a catalog SKU perspective would be similar to comparing a 40 hour and a 120 hour series 2....

Sure it will cost more, but it should demand some excessive premium beyond the disk price difference...

[ZeoTiVo]

If I bought a TiVo HD right now I would also get a TB drive and put it in as soon as I could. So if a TiVo HD with already done drive came in for around the same price as the two then I am in. I could even see 50$ over what I would pay for the two as being worth my time not spent doing the drive upgrade.

as for bells and whistles - only two things would interest me - Blu ray player and/or netflix streaming included

[tivoupgrade]

Originally Posted by classicsat

I am going to say just wait a day.

Hmmm... CEDIA starts tomorrow, doesn't it?

Perhaps TiVo will do something like what VUDU did earlier this year:

The home theater custom-installer types like to offer high-margin products to their customers and TiVo is not currently one of those types of offerings. To give the installers something with some margin in it, VUDU created an XL box available only to certain buying groups to give the custom installers a way to make some money offering the product... VUDU XL announcement

[c3]

Originally Posted by tivoupgrade

For TiVo to offer a high-capacity product, they will most certainly have to charge more than we would

More than the $399 price you're charging for 1TB? I don't think so.

[tivoupgrade]

Originally Posted by c3

More than the $399 price you're charging for 1TB? I don't think so.

And why do you think that?

[mattack]

Originally Posted by killzone

A 1Tb SATA drive goes for under $150.

I was going to ask where.. but I presume you mean e.g. from newegg?

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16822136151

$149.99 including free 3 day shipping. I'm not sure if this is the exact same drive that Fry's has alternately been selling (seemingly switching weekly with a Seagate IIRC) for IIRC $159.

[davezatz]

It's here. And only $600.

http://www.zatznotfunny.com/2008-09/...tb-of-storage/

[ZeoTiVo]

Originally Posted by davezatz

It's here. And only $600.

http://www.zatznotfunny.com/2008-09/...tb-of-storage/

THX certified as well, I note.

ETA-
So I can find a TiVo HD for $250 and a 1 TB drive for $150. So when I find this baby for 450$ then it is priced at my point of sale. Good on TiVo to finally just put a big @ss drive in and stop playing around.

[davezatz]

Originally Posted by ZeoTiVo

THX certified as well, I note.

Marketing fluff? However, the Glo remote is a nice addition along with the extra storage. Wish I could morph my S3 into a THDXL - less energy consumption, larger drive, and most importantly M-Card support.

[c3]

THDXL shows 157/1367 hours. Hacked 1TB shows 144/1367 hours. Hmmmmm.

[atmuscarella]

Originally Posted by tivoupgrade
For TiVo to offer a high-capacity product, they will most certainly have to charge more than we would

I guess TiVo figured out how to do it for less than $399 plus add in THX and the glo remote

[ZeoTiVo]

Originally Posted by atmuscarella

I guess TiVo figured out how to do it for less than $399 plus add in THX and the glo remote

yep - when someone[ETA - who is a first time buyer] asks what model TiVo to get, I think there is an unqualified answer now.*




well sure this is a forum and the answer will go on for 50 posts about this or that but watch over time and most questioners will end up getting this model