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Old 11-16-2010, 12:16 PM   #1
Joe3
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Is TiVo management finally getting it with $0 boxes?

I am probably the last guy to be positive about the current leadership of TiVo, but this could be an encouraging devolvement on their part. This could pull them out of the fire.

If ÖĒif ďÖ TiVoís move is to go the cell phone business model. If that is what they are thinking (And itís too soon to say these people think) it will allow TiVo to upgrade their boxes hardware capacity at least annually to handle all its current features which it canít do now and better implement new ones just as the mobile devices do. This could be the best thing that could happen here. Imagine what a future TiVo app. store could do!

However, I still doubt that the current leadership of TiVo is capable of that kind of business vision since it hasnít been seen from them, ever!
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Old 11-16-2010, 12:27 PM   #2
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This is one of the big IFs.

I agree with you this could be a good thing if this is the plan. Based off the history of TiVo it is tough to expect them to release new updated hardware frequently. Also eventually they will reach a point where there isn't much they could upgrade hardware wise.

We can already replace our own drives so simple storage increases only benefits those who won't do it themselves or know someone who will do it.
Eventually tuners will surpass need so just adding a tuner every revision will eventually max out.

I think the real question becomes what hardware changes every year would be necessary for people to jump on this model over the old model?
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Old 11-16-2010, 12:38 PM   #3
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Don't see it happening.

I don't think they are making enough money off the $0 down and 2 yr contract at $20/month. They can't afford to put out new hardware every 2 years at those rates.
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Old 11-16-2010, 12:51 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Joe3 View Post
I am probably the last guy to be positive about the current leadership of TiVo, but this could be an encouraging devolvement on their part. This could pull them out of the fire.

If ÖĒif ďÖ TiVoís move is to go the cell phone business model. If that is what they are thinking (And itís too soon to say these people think) it will allow TiVo to upgrade their boxes hardware capacity at least annually to handle all its current features which it canít do now and better implement new ones just as the mobile devices do. This could be the best thing that could happen here. Imagine what a future TiVo app. store could do!

However, I still doubt that the current leadership of TiVo is capable of that kind of business vision since it hasnít been seen from them, ever!
TiVo is not the Cell phone type of business, for that matter the Cable TV business is not the cell phone type of business, many people do not like adding monthly cost to their budgets, even if it were less costly, Lifetime Service means that if you have a finical problem in the future you can cut back your expenses but still have your TiVo. If TiVo is going to cost $20/month + cable card rent, and in some cable system you have digital outlet rent and SDV rent and no PPV or On-Demand, I think I can get the Cable co DVR for less total money per month and never have any TiVo/Cable card and bad hardware type hassle and get PPV and On Demand. I have had TiVo for almost 10 years and don't want to change, but for someone new, their going to take the Cable DVR in much greater numbers than TiVo at $20+ per month.
Just my opion
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:07 PM   #5
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Don't see it happening.

I don't think they are making enough money off the $0 down and 2 yr contract at $20/month. They can't afford to put out new hardware every 2 years at those rates.
Tivo is getting $480 over 2 years with this deal and then will get something more if the box stays subbed. They are offering me (and many other people) the same Premier box with lifetime for $469 and will never get anymore $$s from the box even if it lasts 10 years. So which is the worse deal for TiVo?

Thanks
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:41 PM   #6
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After the two years are up, why not just cancel and get a brand new Tivo and start again? The only incentive to keep the old Tivo is that you only have a month to month commitment. If I was paying $19.99 per month, I would force a new Tivo every two years.
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:47 PM   #7
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If that is what they are thinking (And itís too soon to say these people think) it will allow TiVo to upgrade their boxes hardware capacity at least annually to handle all its current features which it canít do now and better implement new ones just as the mobile devices do.
Tivo is not delivering timely updates and bug fixes for the boxes that they already have (the Premiere). Software has a much faster design to market cycle than hardware. So no, I don't see how this is going to increase the rate of hardware development at all. I don't even see why we need better or faster hardware. The Premiere has one disabled CPU core as it stands, so it's not being used to capacity and it's already half a year past launch.
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:47 PM   #8
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TiVo is not the Cell phone type of business, for that matter the Cable TV business is not the cell phone type of business, many people do not like adding monthly cost to their budgets, even if it were less costly, Lifetime Service means that if you have a finical problem in the future you can cut back your expenses but still have your TiVo. If TiVo is going to cost $20/month + cable card rent, and in some cable system you have digital outlet rent and SDV rent and no PPV or On-Demand, I think I can get the Cable co DVR for less total money per month and never have any TiVo/Cable card and bad hardware type hassle and get PPV and On Demand. I have had TiVo for almost 10 years and don't want to change, but for someone new, their going to take the Cable DVR in much greater numbers than TiVo at $20+ per month.
Just my opion
I would agree entirely if only the Cell phone business were still the Cell phone business and Cable TV business were still the Cable TV business. Everyone is in the internet business. Everyone wants internet functionality on their TVs and the box must have the processing power to give it to them and that is why people junk their old $0=gadget for the new more $0=gadget.

I can see a scenario where in 5-10 years TiVo with internet is the only box left standing and I can also see the current TiVo leadership screwing it up.

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Old 11-16-2010, 01:53 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by shwru980r View Post
After the two years is up, why not just cancel and get a brand new Tivo and start again? The only incentive to keep the old Tivo is that you only have a month to month commitment. If I was paying $19.99 per month, I would force a new Tivo every two years.
If they actually made you continue to pay the $19.99/mo and you could get a new box for the same cost you would of course cancel the service and get a new box. That is why I am fairly sure that after the 2 years is up when you call to cancel there will be a retention offer at something lower than $19.99/mo. Of course no one will no for sure until the 2 years is up and they go to cancel the service.

Thanks,
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:54 PM   #10
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Tivo is getting $480 over 2 years with this deal and then will get something more if the box stays subbed. They are offering me (and many other people) the same Premier box with lifetime for $465 and will never get anymore $$s from the box even if it lasts 10 years. So which is the worse deal for TiVo?

Thanks
LIfetime was always worse for Tivo than a customer paying monthly in the long run at least.

I'm just saying Tivo would do better to let the subscriptions continue on the same hardware and not have those subscriptions subsidize new hardware every 2 years.

IN years 3 and 4 they'd make more at a $13/month rate on the same hardware that a consumer had years 1 and 2 than they would subsidizing yet another piece of hardware for $0 down and $20/month.
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Old 11-16-2010, 01:55 PM   #11
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If they actually made you continue to pay the $19.99/mo and you could get a new box for the same cost you would of course cancel the service and get a new box. That is why I am fairly sure that after the 2 years is up when you call to cancel there will be a retention offer at something lower than $19.99/mo. Of course no one will no for sure until the 2 years is up and they go to cancel the service.

Thanks,
Exactly.
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Old 11-16-2010, 02:42 PM   #12
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This is one of the big IFs.

I agree with you this could be a good thing if this is the plan. Based off the history of TiVo it is tough to expect them to release new updated hardware frequently. Also eventually they will reach a point where there isn't much they could upgrade hardware wise.
chipsets is the key

Look at the original S3 and its hassle with Mcard

Look at the TiVo HD and how it can not really run an HD interface

TiVo premiere is Dual core and the chips allow for 2 sets of (OTA, analog, digital) tuners versus the chips in the Moxi that allow for 3 digital tuners.

Likely there is a chip set in a lab that will allow for 4 sets of tuners and quad core and do conversions on the fly or make streaming a breeze.


The original TiVo business plan saw people pay for upgrading simply because of better hardware. That is why they thought lifetime would work for TiVo. People would just stop using the old models. Well that certainly did not happen and now the code base tries and accounts for folks that have a couple of different models in the house.

So instead make upgrading a defacto thing simply because of minimal cost involved and dropping support more rapidly on older models. Yep - that TiVo HD will not ever have this or that feature, no problem though, just switch it up for next to nothing versus the 299$ retail under the old business model. Want to keep using that old TiVo HD anyway despite no support for it, no problem, just pay the yearly fee of say 99$
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Old 11-16-2010, 03:28 PM   #13
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One thing TiVo marketing will know based on what happened here - not that they may care - the price/demand curve goes straight up for the loyal existing MSD-eligible subscribers at a price of $400 with lifetime service.

And we don't know for sure yet that our Premiere with MSD lifetime buy in is not still around $450-$500.

They probably know that they can hook us for a higher price at the launch of new hardware, except for rebels like me. I did go for the S3 at $500 + $199 early on in around 2005.

What they're adjusting of course, is the price for new adopters.

As with the first post here, we will see some screams and returns when those that don't know hear about having to pay $19.99 a month.
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Old 11-16-2010, 03:34 PM   #14
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This would work for me if the features were worth upgrading, but if it turns out to be just software features I know many won't be happy. Now if it truly requires better hardware that would be another matter.

Assuming any of this turns out to be true, I think the issue still is at what point do they hit the cap where it no longer makes sense to upgrade. Sure some of us want more tuners in a TiVo but not everyone does. The hurdle will still be to convert those from a lifetime to monthly model and I don't see it happening any time soon. Even if TiVo did this I would just buy lifetime units and just sell them when a new model came out I wanted.

Of course at the rate TiVo develops this would be years away before they hit the cap and once you have a couple missed upgrade windows where people question why they didn't buy lifetime since they have now paid more than that over time you lose that selling point.

Now where I do see potential for this model is with Allvid. When you have eliminated the CableCARD rentals and you are potentially free to hook up any device. Hopefully TiVo would also be able to drop the subscription cost due to the potential to make more on hardware without all the CableCARD hardware.
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Old 11-16-2010, 03:40 PM   #15
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The original TiVo business plan saw people pay for upgrading simply because of better hardware. That is why they thought lifetime would work for TiVo. People would just stop using the old models. Well that certainly did not happen and now the code base tries and accounts for folks that have a couple of different models in the house.
If HD did not come along the Series 2 with Lifetime Service could run almost forever with a Hard drive change every 5 or so years, most people just want the TV recording functions of the TiVo, I don't know the % of people that go for the other TiVo functions but I think it's low (not so much for people on this forum). Once upgraded to the Series 3 for HD, again that unit will last forever with just hard disk change every so many years. Some people have reported getting 8 years out of a Series 1 upgraded hard drive. Lifetime makes the TiVo a good investment as it will retain value years later. (The Lifetime Series 2 lost a lot of value only because of non HD capabilities) The last TV standard lasted for over 60 years, I would expect this standard to last at least 30 years if not more. If 1080p ever becomes a standard for OTA and cable that may drop my 30 year estimate, but i don't think you get that much better picture with 1080p as opposed to 1080i that people will run out and upgrade all their equipment.
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Old 11-16-2010, 04:01 PM   #16
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If HD did not come along the Series 2 with Lifetime Service could run almost forever with a Hard drive change every 5 or so years, most people just want the TV recording functions of the TiVo, I don't know the % of people that go for the other TiVo functions but I think it's low (not so much for people on this forum). Once upgraded to the Series 3 for HD, again that unit will last forever with just hard disk change every so many years. Some people have reported getting 8 years out of a Series 1 upgraded hard drive. Lifetime makes the TiVo a good investment as it will retain value years later. (The Lifetime Series 2 lost a lot of value only because of non HD capabilities) The last TV standard lasted for over 60 years, I would expect this standard to last at least 30 years if not more. If 1080p ever becomes a standard for OTA and cable that may drop my 30 year estimate, but i don't think you get that much better picture with 1080p as opposed to 1080i that people will run out and upgrade all their equipment.
Except the series 2 couldn't have run forever for some people. Mine do me no good since I don't have Analog channels anymore and it can't record HD.

I upgraded to the Premiere for just the transfer speeds.

I think many would upgrade just for streaming capabilities assuming the Premiere couldn't handle it or it could receive but not send.

Also I wouldn't count on this standard lasting as long. While the signal may remain the same, getting the signal and what you do with it will probably change.

You could say the same thing about VHS compared to DVD, but look at DVD to Blu-Ray. Look at 3DTV. Look at the AllVid solution. Over the next several years we have no idea what standards will and won't change. Look at some of the new HDMI standards and things like wireless HDMI. While some of the basics may remain, there will be some pretty significant changes that may or may not have an effect on the industry. I definitely don't see CableCARD being around for another 20 years and who knows if the Premiere will be able to talk to the gateway.

Oh well who knows.
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Old 11-16-2010, 04:13 PM   #17
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If HD did not come along the Series 2 with Lifetime Service could run almost forever with a Hard drive change every 5 or so years,
thus my statement - well that certainly did not happen.

Indeed it was the series 2 that drove home to TiVo that even significant hardware changes was not going to cause a mass upgrade. Given the cost to upgrade that is. Find that low cost way to let people upgrade and you night have something. Problem is many in the forum would not see 20$ a month for the next 10 years and 5 models for 2,400$ as low cost since under the old approach we may have done 3 upgrades with lifetime at say 600$ a piece for 1,800$ before reselling anything
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Old 11-16-2010, 10:24 PM   #18
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Though we're already at the hard drive limit for S3/TivoHD.. (IIRC, there's a _hack_ to get bigger drives on Premiere… right?)
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Old 11-17-2010, 07:09 AM   #19
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The current limit for both TivoHD and Premier is approx 2TB. I don't think anyone has a new 3TB drive functioning in a Premier yet.
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Old 11-17-2010, 08:23 AM   #20
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The current limit for both TivoHD and Premier is approx 2TB. I don't think anyone has a new 3TB drive functioning in a Premier yet.
With comer's java tool, there are now 4TB Premiere's in the wild!

It's not perfect, with the FSI showing negative hours, but it's still functional.
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