I believe the future looks very bright for TiVo

[Rebate_King]

Remember the big DirectTV subscriber numbers that TiVo would post each quarter? Image in 1-2 years from now, ComcastTiVo's are available for rental to all 20 Millions plus users (I am not saying that all of them will get one. But I can see some big numbers being posted each quarter for TiVo for comcast users.

Now that DirectTV has been bought out, and the TiVo CEO is saying that he sees positive changes with the new owners. Imagine big sub numbers being posted each month from DirectTV and Comcast. Oh and don't forget COX cable.

Sorry for the rambling. I am just excited for TiVo and its future.

[Redux]

I've always meant to look into the impacts of the Tivo/DirecTV contract running out on DirecTV's ability to do DVR.

Currently (under the extended contract) Tivo agrees not to sue DirecTV for its use of Tivo's patents. But once the contract expires?

Seems to me DirecTivo has a lot to gain by moving back to Tivo, long, long-term. DirecTivo receivers were a wonderful example of the whole being more than the sum of its parts.

[ZeoTiVo]

The TiVo employees who post here reported a lot of giddy people at TiVo when the Comcast contract was done and announced. Their posts were pretty optimistic. I have noticed a severe drop off in the number of TiVo is dead threads. If the Echostar patent suit is finally wrapped up in TiVo's favor then I think all the nails are out of the coffin .

[Justin Thyme]

While on the subject of the employees, before this battle is won it would be good to take note of their endurance and perseverence.

It shows great character. As a Tivo user, and also professionally as someone who has worked on similar engineering projects, I'd personally like to take this opportunity to thank them and offer my most sincere compliments for sweating all the details needed to bring about this revolution in the way people think about video and consumer electronics.

[riddick21]

Honestly I never understood the people who say TiVo is doomed. They obviously have a great product and I really don't know how a company with such a great product could possibly go out of business. Someone would buy them before that happened but that probably wont even need to happen given all the good things that are happening for them lately (knock on wood). No other company compares when it comes to media in the living room. As much as I love Apple I think the Apple TV is crap.

[BlackBetty]

I am very excited to see what the next 1-2 years has in store for TiVo. Especially in terms of the thing we can't talk about here on TCF

[cwerdna]

Originally Posted by riddick21

Honestly I never understood the people who say TiVo is doomed. They obviously have a great product and I really don't know how a company with such a great product could possibly go out of business. Someone would buy them before that happened but that probably wont even need to happen given all the good things that are happening for them lately (knock on wood). No other company compares when it comes to media in the living room. As much as I love Apple I think the Apple TV is crap.

It's because they've only had two profitable quarters (one barely profitable long ago and one that was much better recently). The rest of the time they've lost money, sometimes MASSIVE amounts. Losing money almost every quarter means they've got the potential to run out of it.

Their subscriber growth has really slowed too and they've lost DirecTV (for now) as a source of new net subscriptions.

If they go under, I do hope someone buys them out and keeps the service going at least for existing customers.

[richsadams]

Originally Posted by Justin Thyme

While on the subject of the employees, before this battle is won it would be good to take note of their endurance and perseverence.

It shows great character. As a Tivo user, and also professionally as someone who has worked on similar engineering projects, I'd personally like to take this opportunity to thank them and offer my most sincere compliments for sweating all the details needed to bring about this revolution in the way people think about video and consumer electronics.

+1

[richsadams]

Originally Posted by cwerdna

It's because they've only had two profitable quarters (one barely profitable long ago and one that was much better recently). The rest of the time they've lost money, sometimes MASSIVE amounts. Losing money almost every quarter means they've got the potential to run out of it.

Agreed. Amazon.com is an excellent example of a good idea that lost millions of dollars for years before becoming profitable. It can be done and TiVo is proving that. They have a solid product and their future should be bright if they stay focused on their core strengths and continue to grow the business.

[dylanemcgregor]

So have I missed an announcement of the pricing for the Comcast-Tivo? It is supposed to be an additional fee on top of the normal DVR fee Comcast charges right? I've always thought one of the reasons the DirecTiVo did so well was that it was priced so low for what you got that you pretty much had to be crazy to be a DirecTV subscriber and not get it. Not sure that that is going to be the case with Tivo on Comcast...but I hope I'm wrong.

-Dylan

[Johncv]

The Comcast and Cox deal is what is what going to help TiVo, but it will not do any good if Comcast does not activate the eSATA port on the Motorola boxes. So all TiVo fans in Boston better scream at Comcast to activate the port. The eSATA port on the SA boxes use by Cox are enable by default, so it going to be interesting to see how the TiVo service for the SA boxes is going to handle this. Because if it turn off the port, it good buy TiVo.

[shpope]

If you look at the failure rates for businesses, most are profitable but have cash flow issues. Tivo is and has been sitting on quite a bit of cash, so they won't be going anywhere for a while. Doomed in the future, possibly, but in the short term, cash is king and Tivo looks to be fine on the cash front.

We are walking pretty close to the stock talk line, though, so we better watch it...

[MickeS]

Originally Posted by Johncv

The Comcast and Cox deal is what is what going to help TiVo, but it will not do any good if Comcast does not activate the eSATA port on the Motorola boxes. So all TiVo fans in Boston better scream at Comcast to activate the port. The eSATA port on the SA boxes use by Cox are enable by default, so it going to be interesting to see how the TiVo service for the SA boxes is going to handle this. Because if it turn off the port, it good buy TiVo.

Is that really a dealbreaker for regular subscribers? I kinda doubt it.

[TiVo Troll]

Originally Posted by cwerdna

If they go under, I do hope someone buys them out and keeps the service going at least for existing customers.

Wouldn't it be amazing if TiVo WASN'T bought out if it ran into financial difficulties? Even though ReplayTV as a standalone DVR essentially is history no ReplayTV user has lost service.

But the possibility of TiVo going under is getting more and more remote. It appears that TiVo has actually turned that corner.

[wolflord11]

Originally Posted by dylanemcgregor

So have I missed an announcement of the pricing for the Comcast-Tivo? It is supposed to be an additional fee on top of the normal DVR fee Comcast charges right? I've always thought one of the reasons the DirecTiVo did so well was that it was priced so low for what you got that you pretty much had to be crazy to be a DirecTV subscriber and not get it. Not sure that that is going to be the case with Tivo on Comcast...but I hope I'm wrong.

-Dylan

The Directv DVR fee is still the best out there. $5.99 a month for unlimited DVR's.

Look at it this way: You have 6 Directv/Tivo units. You pay $5.99 a Month for service to all of them!!!

Tivo cannot compete against that. And I doubt very much any of the Cable companies can to.

I do know that our local company (Name left out ) charges $10 a Month fee for each of their DVR's.

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by Rebate_King

Remember the big DirectTV subscriber numbers that TiVo would post each quarter? Image in 1-2 years from now, ComcastTiVo's are available for rental to all 20 Millions plus users (I am not saying that all of them will get one. But I can see some big numbers being posted each quarter for TiVo for comcast users.

Now that DirectTV has been bought out, and the TiVo CEO is saying that he sees positive changes with the new owners. Imagine big sub numbers being posted each month from DirectTV and Comcast. Oh and don't forget COX cable.

Sorry for the rambling. I am just excited for TiVo and its future.

That excitement may be a little premature. First, they will never get every Subscriber from any Service. I don't know the percentage of Satelite users that also Rent Tivos from DirecTV or the other if offerred, but I doubt it is more than 25% at best. Plus Cable customers are the same. I may be very high saying 25%, but I doubt I am off by far if not. I feel many decline once they realize the FREE DVR Offer, is not really Free, because they need to pay Monthly Service. But why is it a lot less than we pay? $5.95mo last time I looked! That is even less than the 3Yr. Prepaid price! Then after the "Special" expires, what does it cost then?? I don't have satelite, so I don't have that figure.
We are used to having Tivo, and it feels like we can't live W/O it! *Unless it becomes Cost prohibitive! That is a big IF! Although it seems I can't live W/O it, if times got hard for myself, I know that would be 1st to go. Then Cable, Then Eating!
Plus again you need to remember, Satelite is not creating New Customers. It is only eating away at existing Cable Customers, who have had the oppty. to get a DVR for quite some time now, but a friend of mine who installs for Comcast told me that very few installations include a DVR or HD Tuner. Mostly as he said, people over 50 are not going for it. Face it, the Economy sucks! What you Pay for Cable and Tivo each Month, is now being doubled just by adding the additional cost of Gas alone! Plus, Every Man, Woman and Child in the US today, Averages out to being $8,000.00 in Debt, from Credit Cards, Mortgages, Refi's etc. So we are not in as great a shape as many may think!

[BlackBetty]

heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.

[cwerdna]

Originally Posted by AFP1

That excitement may be a little premature. First, they will never get every Subscriber from any Service. I don't know the percentage of Satelite users that also Rent Tivos from DirecTV or the other if offerred, but I doubt it is more than 25% at best. P

Per http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509005529.html?.v=1, DirecTV had 16.19 million subscribers in the US as of March 31, 2007, up from 15.39 million as of March 31, 2006.

Per http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070530/tivo8-k.html, TiVo had 2.615 milion DirecTV (DirecTiVo) subscribers as of April 30, 2007 down from 2.875 million as of April 30, 2006.

So, it went from 18.6% of DirecTV subscribers down to 16.1%.

[wolflord11]

Look at the numbers:

Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)

Have you thought that the decrease was due to the fact that the Directv/Tivo units are getting older now, and many are dying. Customers simply replce them with Directv units.

All your information shows is that Directv is getting more customers, and the Directv/Tivo units are slowly dying away as they get older. People switch out to Directv units.

Now, if Directv and Tivo get another deal going (And we all hope for this) then the Directv/Tivo numbers will go up not down.

[cwerdna]

Originally Posted by wolflord11

Look at the numbers:

Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)

Have you thought that the decrease was due to the fact that the Directv/Tivo units are getting older now, and many are dying. Customers simply replce them with Directv units.

All your information shows is that Directv is getting more customers, and the Directv/Tivo units are slowly dying away as they get older. People switch out to Directv units.

Now, if Directv and Tivo get another deal going (And we all hope for this) then the Directv/Tivo numbers will go up not down.

It also doesn't help that DirecTV isn't selling any more DirecTiVos and seems to have none left in stock. Unless DirecTV and TiVo have another deal, the only time there can be increases is from DirecTiVos left in the channel, idle/dormant units being reactivated and the used market.

Having virtually no supply, people having to resort to EBay, Craig's list, etc. doesn't make for a retail presence. That along w/high def DirecTiVos not supporting MPEG-4 isn't conducive to DirecTiVo subscriber growth.

[dylanemcgregor]

Originally Posted by wolflord11

The Directv DVR fee is still the best out there. $5.99 a month for unlimited DVR's.

Look at it this way: You have 6 Directv/Tivo units. You pay $5.99 a Month for service to all of them!!!

Tivo cannot compete against that. And I doubt very much any of the Cable companies can to.

I do know that our local company (Name left out ) charges $10 a Month fee for each of their DVR's.

Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)

Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?

Dylan

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by BlackBetty

heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.

First, where do you get 2 Million as being 10% of Comcast Subs? Are you saying Comcast services 200 Million people? I sincerely doubt that because there are only approx. 300 Million Americans, and that is not Households. That is every Man, Woman and Child. I doubt there are 200 Million Homes and/or decision makers. Plus, Comcast is not a new company, they are taking over other Cable suppliers, like Adelphia etc. who have been selling Tivo Services already. So any gain would be quite minimal as far as additional Subs for Tivo. There are only X Amount of Households, and many have Satelite. Whoever Comcast gets to switch, or visa versa, is only trading off customers. Not adding overall, and only *IF they subscribe to Tivo Services.
I mentioned something yesterday in one of my Posts. We are all used to having Tivos, and it would be a great loss if there was all of a sudden no Services or Tivos.
But most of the peole I know, don't even have nor care to own one. They are happy with what they already have, and don't want to add on another Bill each Month. Some think it's great when they come here and I use it with them, but I never see them run out and Buy one?? I know many peole who never even bought a VCR, and they are by no means poor either! They just felt they didn't watch enough TV to warrant it. Plus today, a Movie on TV plays for about a Month on various Stations, (On Cable/Sat.) making the need to watch it the 1st time it Airs unnecessary as well.

[miller890]

Originally Posted by BlackBetty

heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.

My bet is there will be a lot of people who intend to order a standard DVR but say they want a "TiVo" and get the upgraded service .

I did not realize how may people mistakenly call their Comcast DVR a TiVo until dinner the other night where 8 out of the 12 people had "TiVo", actually 7 had Comcast DVRs, I was the only one with TiVo as it turned out.

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by dylanemcgregor

Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)

Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?

Dylan

I had asked the other Day what Comcast charges, when comparing them to Satelite. They get $5.95 to Rent the Unit, and the same again for the Service. Still cheaper than Tivo.

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by wolflord11

Look at the numbers:

Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)

Have you thought that the decrease was due to the fact that the Directv/Tivo units are getting older now, and many are dying. Customers simply replce them with Directv units.

All your information shows is that Directv is getting more customers, and the Directv/Tivo units are slowly dying away as they get older. People switch out to Directv units.

Now, if Directv and Tivo get another deal going (And we all hope for this) then the Directv/Tivo numbers will go up not down.

Well, after you think about it, needing to Pay $6.00 to Rent a DVR each Month, Plus another $6 in Service charges, he is perfectly right! That DVR Rental is also a lot more expensive than simply purchasing a Tivo for $39, $69 or even $99 as it is right now! It pays for itself in savings!
So if I had Sat. TV, I would own my own Tivo, just as I do now with Cable.
But many will also drop it in his scenario.

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by dylanemcgregor

Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)

Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?

Dylan

I would just like to know why Directv can sell the Service for $6 and Tivo cannot??
I am sure DTV is Profiting @ $6! But we "Purists" Pay more!

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by cwerdna

Per http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509005529.html?.v=1, DirecTV had 16.19 million subscribers in the US as of March 31, 2007, up from 15.39 million as of March 31, 2006.

Per http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070530/tivo8-k.html, TiVo had 2.615 milion DirecTV (DirecTiVo) subscribers as of April 30, 2007 down from 2.875 million as of April 30, 2006.

So, it went from 18.6% of DirecTV subscribers down to 16.1%.

Well, when I guessed 25% at the Max. I was way too high as expected, going by these numbers. But again, for every Subscriber either Sat or Cable gets, it's a Trade Off, not a Brand New Customer. Someone is losing one. There are very few "New" installations for either of them. Only Trade Offs from another Company.

[AFP1]

Originally Posted by miller890

My bet is there will be a lot of people who intend to order a standard DVR but say they want a "TiVo" and get the upgraded service .

I did not realize how may people mistakenly call their Comcast DVR a TiVo until dinner the other night where 8 out of the 12 people had "TiVo", actually 7 had Comcast DVRs, I was the only one with TiVo as it turned out.

Owning my own & Not ever having Rented DVR service from either Cable or Satelite, what exactly is the difference in software betwen the Companies Units?? I am guessing if similar to Tivo, if Tivo Branded or not, they both achieve the same thing?? And if that's so, who cares who is supplying the Software, especially when it's 1/2 the price if not more W/Multiple Sets?
But again, I have no idea of the differences. If there is only a "Wishlist" Difference, for me I would rather pay less and not have it. But if it's like a VCR, and I have to watch what I Record, or Slow, than it's a different story!

[bilbo]

Originally Posted by AFP1

I would just like to know why Directv can sell the Service for $6 and Tivo cannot??
I am sure DTV is Profiting @ $6! But we "Purists" Pay more!

DirecTivo is about profit AND RETENTION

Also, the incremental additional cost to add the Tivo DVR to a Satellite Receiver is less than building a stand-alone Tivo DVR.

Tivo is paying $0.40 every month to your credit card company (3% credit card processing fee of the $13 monthly fee) -- DirecTV probably gets a lot of people paying from their checking account. Tivo's various department (billing, advertising, research & development) are dedicated to their DVRs only -- DirecTV has a profitable satellite company business that encompasses many of these 3+ departments.

[ZeoTiVo]

Comcast
it is 20 million. 10% of 20 million is 2 million. So the Comcast numbers will be something to watch and while I am not going to look up the contract terms I know there are provisions in the Comcast/TiVo contract that compell Comcast to market TiVo service and performance guidelines, etc. that kick in. This should not be some "Oh yah, by the way" event for TiVo it is just taking longer than expected to get the final product out the door.

DirectTV
Only DirectTV charges the single fee of 6$ for all DVRs on the account. When Murdoch bought DirectTV he changed out DVRs for one from another subsidiary he owned, NDS. Since that is now the choice if you get the DVR from DirectTV then of course TiVo powered subs are going down. There is new ownership taking over DirectTV that is far more amenable to TiVo. Also the echostar patent trial is of note here because when it finally settles, most likely in TiVo's favor then that is another compelling reason for DirectTV to work another deal with TiVo. right now there is a limited maintenance contract between DirectTV and TiVo which keeps DirectTV safe from an patent issues. That contract is for a limited time though.

Echostar
the patent suit was already decided in lower court with a willful infringement finding against Echostar. It is federal court now and even at the minimum damages it would be a large influx of cash for TiVo when finally settled. That is the likely "worse scenario" for TiVo. Since an injunction to stop using the infringing DVRs is also on the table a better scenario could be a deal between Tivo and Echostar which would mean ongoing cash for TiVo.

These are the strong points in TiVo's future. The other issues outlined in this thread really just amount to the overall resistence to any DVR in the home but TiVo has never based its business model on getting into every home.