I just can't seem to justify it (although I want to)

larrs · 09-13-2006, 02:11 PM

Follow my math here. I just can't seem to justify the cost of the S3 as much as I try and as much as I like Tivo.

My SA8300HD costs me $16.45 per month (box rental, dvr fee, etc).
The cable cards for an S3 would run $3.98 plus Tivo Service fees of $6.95 as an additional box would be a total of $10.93 per moth.
That saves me $5.52 per month.
At $799, it would take me almost 12 years to recoup my initial outlay!
That's a long time. Or, I could take the VIP deal and monthly savings would jump to $12.47, but the $998 out of pocket would still take almost 8 years to recoup.

What is your personal justification? Is it just love for Tivo? I am having difficulty seeing the value proposition.

RCflier · 09-13-2006, 02:19 PM

Mine.. Happiness

I give the government plenty of money, I give the util companies plenty of money, work too much, relax too little blah blah blah.. You have to indulge yourself sometimes -- and the SA8300 has been a pain in my *** for a year now. So, I got my S3 to make life just a tad more enjoyable.

I won't sit here comparing how long to break even vs this or that. I could wait for the price to drop, but I'm a gadget person. If I am yelling "POS DVR" everytime I watch TV, instead of enjoying watching TV, it's worth it -- to me.

DTG · 09-13-2006, 02:30 PM

You miss two points.

1) The cable company will keep increasing the price of its DVR. Over a 12 year period it will at least double. So if you choose this option your TiVo should be paid off in say 6 years.

2) If you go lifetime your series 3 will have some residual value. I have decided that the price of a new lifetime (if it existed) is now $600. So subtracting that $600 from your $998, you will have a real cost of about $400. And as lifetimes get scarcer, the value of a lifetimed series 3 will keep going up.

Do the lifetime thing

propermodulation · 09-13-2006, 02:31 PM

This always kills me.

Many people pay 2,3,4,5K for a big screen HD set, a couple of more K for a good surround sound system the they b1tch about paying less than a grand for the worlds greatest DVR.

After going through all the root canal pain with my SA8300HD I just can't wait to drive over and drop it off at my local cable companies’ office. (I may not even slow the car down)

naclone · 09-13-2006, 03:11 PM

i, quite frankly, will never understand the apples to apples math folks are trying to ascribe to an apples and mangos situation.

if you truly believe that tivo and cable DVR are similar enough to compare the pricing on a 1:1 basis, why are you even here? the choice is clear. one costs a bundle the other doesn't. why agonize over it if there's not other difference between them?

you're here because you know the two are not the same. one is vastly superior. so why are you treating the values the same?

frankly, tivo is a far more valuable product. that's what justifies the additional cost. and clearly you think so or you wouldn't be here.

tunnelengineer · 09-13-2006, 03:12 PM

amen. the value of a S3 with lifetime will be huge a year from now....... If you don't like it you will get the majority of your money back by selling.

naclone · 09-13-2006, 03:18 PM

the math is really headscratching. i read these comparisons and it sounds like this:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99.
the New York Post costs 35 cents.
the math just isn't working out for me.

what??? yeah, they both could essentially do the same job...and one is clearly much, much cheaper, but...you know...one has more value than the other. just because.

ahaley42 · 09-13-2006, 03:24 PM

It's the same as DVD vs. VHS. They CAN both show movies but do you want to trade in your DVD player for VHS? No. Same with this. I CAN rent a VHS player from the cable company but I prefer the DVD player. It's a quality and QOS service.

dsb411 · 09-13-2006, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naclone

the math is really headscratching. i read these comparisons and it sounds like this:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99.
the New York Post costs 35 cents.
the math just isn't working out for me.

what??? yeah, they both could essentially do the same job...and one is clearly much, much cheaper, but...you know...one has more value than the other. just because.

Dude go with the Post, theres nothing to read on the Charmin.

larrs · 09-13-2006, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naclone

the math is really headscratching. i read these comparisons and it sounds like this:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99.
the New York Post costs 35 cents.
the math just isn't working out for me.

what??? yeah, they both could essentially do the same job...and one is clearly much, much cheaper, but...you know...one has more value than the other. just because.

Actually, I think my post was more like Charmin versus Sam's Club tissue. Not apples and mangos, maybe McInosh vs. Granny Smith.

Dan203 · 09-13-2006, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naclone

the math is really headscratching. i read these comparisons and it sounds like this:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99.
the New York Post costs 35 cents.
the math just isn't working out for me.

what??? yeah, they both could essentially do the same job...and one is clearly much, much cheaper, but...you know...one has more value than the other. just because.

LOL

Best analogy I've heard yet.

Dan

larrs · 09-13-2006, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ahaley42

It's the same as DVD vs. VHS. They CAN both show movies but do you want to trade in your DVD player for VHS? No. Same with this. I CAN rent a VHS player from the cable company but I prefer the DVD player. It's a quality and QOS service.

Actually it's more like Oppo vs. Sony DVD players since the picture and sound coming out are the same, it is the interface that is different but is the intrerface worth that much more?

larrs · 09-13-2006, 03:47 PM

It is funny in these threads how often people take the elitist attitude. I have had Tivo as long or longer than most, so i am fully familiar with what it is. I have also had the 8300 for two years and understnd its limitations. I posed a question many people are probably asking themselves and it's met with sarcasm like I am a troll from the Scientific Atlanta love society.

Maybe it is time to read the entire original post. I asked for your own personal justification. It is starting to sound like much of it is "just because".

Thanks to those who actually responded. The residual of a lifetime sub was definitely a good one that I hadn't thought of.

Sparty99 · 09-13-2006, 03:48 PM

For me to go with the Series 3 it would require a switch from DirecTV to Comcast (something I've been looking to do provided the financial incentive were there). The cheapest way to do this would be getting the Series 3 with a 3-year plan and the dual tuner unit for my basement, which would be an initial outlay of about $1200. Over the course of that 3 years, considering the cost of Comcast vs. DirecTV and the TiVo service fees for the second unit, my costs would go up just a little bit.

Basically, my cost for switching from the HR10-250 to the Series 3 would be about $35/month over the next 3 years. Much as I want to get away from DirecTV and stick with the TiVo interface, I just can't justify it.

cheer · 09-13-2006, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naclone

the math is really headscratching. i read these comparisons and it sounds like this:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99.
the New York Post costs 35 cents.
the math just isn't working out for me.

what??? yeah, they both could essentially do the same job...and one is clearly much, much cheaper, but...you know...one has more value than the other. just because.

Of all the stupid analogies I've seen here over the past day or so, this is the worst. They aren't even designed to do the same thing.

How about:

a 4-pack of Charmin costs $3.99
a 4-pack of the store brand costs $1.57

They both do the same job essentially, but the Charmin has benefits. For some, those benefits may be worth the added costs. For others, not so much.

naclone · 09-13-2006, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrs

Actually, I think my post was more like Charmin versus Sam's Club tissue. Not apples and mangos, maybe McInosh vs. Granny Smith.

right, but you get my point.

I'd argue then that we're talking about Quilted Northern (or whatever) and Sam's Club tissue then.

there is undeniably something about the TiVo that makes it more valuable to all of us. whether or not it is ~$800 more valuable is going to differ from consumer to consumer. but you can't make the decision solely on the numbers. like charmin vs sam's club tissue, it's a comfort thing. yes, both are designed to do the same thing but all of understand why one has more value than the other. some folks are willing to put up with the "discomfort" of using the cable company dvr so they can save some money. and that's fine. But somehow you have to account for the triple-ply, quilted softness of TiVo in your equation.

naclone · 09-13-2006, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrs

It is funny in these threads how often people take the elitist attitude. I have had Tivo as long or longer than most, so i am fully familiar with what it is. I have also had the 8300 for two years and understnd its limitations. I posed a question many people are probably asking themselves and it's met with sarcasm like I am a troll from the Scientific Atlanta love society.

Maybe it is time to read the entire original post. I asked for your own personal justification. It is starting to sound like much of it is "just because".

Thanks to those who actually responded. The residual of a lifetime sub was definitely a good one that I hadn't thought of.

I apologize for derailing your discussion. but the crux of your post was the math not working out for you and you were missing a key variable of the equation -- the difference in value between TiVo and STB. and in a lot of ways I guess you were looking for people to fill in that variable in this thread.

I wasn't trying to take an elitist attitude, I just think it's funny that people are here because they are fans of TiVo but some of you seem awfully reluctant to actually ascribe any real value to it when you run your numbers. and well, that doesn't make much sense to me.

Granzella · 09-13-2006, 04:01 PM

For me, I pay comcast $17/month for hd dvr service which comes out to $204 a year for a very buggy dvr unit with a horrible interface. The main thing that sold me to the new Tivo was its good interface and the fact that there is no monthly charges on my cable cards. ( also I have a lifetime subsription on my S2) I'd rather pay a little more now and pay nothing later than having a recurring bill every month.

Also, your paying more for the name. It's like driving a lexus or a civic. They both get you from point A to B but which is better?

naclone · 09-13-2006, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheer

Of all the stupid analogies I've seen here over the past day or so, this is the worst. They aren't even designed to do the same thing.

Just using a little hyberbole to make the point. the rift in value between the two products is not as vast as I make it out to be and arguable not vast enough to justify an $800 price point. But my exaggeration is no less accurate than the claim that there is no difference between the two at all.

As with most things, it's somewhere in the middle. and where in the middle it is will be different for everyone.

larrs · 09-13-2006, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by naclone

I apologize for derailing your discussion. but the crux of your post was the math not working out for you and you were missing a key variable of the equation -- the difference in value between TiVo and STB. and in a lot of ways I guess you were looking for people to fill in that variable in this thread.

I wasn't trying to take an elitist attitude, I just think it's funny that people are here because they are fans of TiVo but some of you seem awfully reluctant to actually ascribe any real value to it when you run your numbers. and well, that doesn't make much sense to me.

Point taken, but this Tivo is giving me more trouble than the others i have owned. All but one of my Tivos are connected to cable boxes now, so I can record from the digital tier of channels. I could have gotten more 8300 boxes (non HD) for less per month total than I spend today, but the value was much easier to see. For expample, I purchased a DT Series 2. I paid $249 at BB less a $150 rebate from Tivo which amounted to $99 out of pocket. I pay $6.95 per month plus the $6.75 per month the cable co charges for the digital box. I could have gotten a cable DVR for $11.75 per month. Tivo is certainly worth the $99 plus the $2 more per month. This one is a lot harder to justify- at least to me (and I have a definite "boy's toys" budget each year).

silentbob · 09-13-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTG

2) If you go lifetime your series 3 will have some residual value. I have decided that the price of a new lifetime (if it existed) is now $600. So subtracting that $600 from your $998, you will have a real cost of about $400. And as lifetimes get scarcer, the value of a lifetimed series 3 will keep going up.

Isn't the lifetime subscription only as valuable as the lifespan of the unit? Sure, the intrinsic value of the subscription may go up as they become more rare, but that's offset by the depreciation of the unit (it certainly won't be worth $800 after years of use). Who's gonna buy a lifetime subscription for a unit with tons of mileage?

It seems like the most efficient use of the transfer option would be to buy a new unit and sell it now. And even then, being able to fetch significantly more than, say, $1200 for an unproven lifetime Series 3 seems speculative at best right now.

larrs · 09-13-2006, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by silentbob

Isn't the lifetime subscription only as valuable as the lifespan of the unit? Sure, the intrinsic value of the subscription may go up as they become more rare, but that's offset by the depreciation of the unit (it certainly won't be worth $800 after years of use). Who's gonna buy a lifetime subscription for a unit with tons of mileage?

It seems like the most efficient use of the transfer option would be to buy a new unit and sell it now. And even then, being able to fetch significantly more than, say, $1200 for an unproven lifetime Series 3 seems speculative at best right now.

Well, there is one on E-bay right now (search tivo series 3), so we'll see how much the lifetime option is worth to the public.

naclone · 09-13-2006, 04:14 PM

and speaking of value, I will now try to add something of value to the discussion.

My personal justification is this. I currently use both a S2 and a STB side-by-side on my HDTV. I haven't even bothered to do the math on how much that setup costs but i know without a doubt that i hate it. I cannot stand the picture quality I get with recorded shows on the TiVo side and I cannot stand the entire experience on the STB side. I rigged this up so that i would have the best of both worlds -- the pluses of TiVo interface for SD recordings and the ability to record HD on the STB. But it's actually the worst of both worlds as niether experience is truly satisfying. Each is severely lacking.

at this point the 30-second skip alone would be worth $800. trying to scan through ads with the STB is painful.

So comes now a solution that does everything exactly the way I want it. TiVo interface, HD recording, perfect PQ. To me, it's a no brainer. I'm simply not enjoying my television viewing as much as I could be or as much as I want to.

Do I wish the S3 cost $299 instead of $799? of course. but to go back to my bad analogy, I'm sick and tired of using Sams Club TP. And it's time for something better.

silentbob · 09-13-2006, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrs

Well, there is one on E-bay right now (search tivo series 3), so we'll see how much the lifetime option is worth to the public.

Fair enough. And if there is a profitable market for Series 3 units with transferred lifetime subscriptions, I'll probably get rid of my own subscription the same way -- my Series 2 still works but has been largely unused since I switched to HD in January. So it's not like I'm getting much value out of it right now.

stahta01 · 09-13-2006, 04:42 PM

I think it realy is a matter of how many hours you will work for the benifit of a Tivo series 3. In other words is S3 worth $800 is a how much you make per hour Question. I think if I was working right now it would be worth at least $400 dollars. If I made more money the value would go up alot.

Tim S

albrandwood · 09-13-2006, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrs

Point taken, but this Tivo is giving me more trouble than the others i have owned. All but one of my Tivos are connected to cable boxes now, so I can record from the digital tier of channels. I could have gotten more 8300 boxes (non HD) for less per month total than I spend today, but the value was much easier to see. For expample, I purchased a DT Series 2. I paid $249 at BB less a $150 rebate from Tivo which amounted to $99 out of pocket. I pay $6.95 per month plus the $6.75 per month the cable co charges for the digital box. I could have gotten a cable DVR for $11.75 per month. Tivo is certainly worth the $99 plus the $2 more per month. This one is a lot harder to justify- at least to me (and I have a definite "boy's toys" budget each year).

So look at it this way. These are the numbers for me (CableVision) as setup in my living room ...

$799.99 for the S3
$333.60 4 yrs * 12 mths * $6.95 Tivo Service
$ 93.60 4yrs * 12 mths * $1.95 CableCard
======
$1227.19 over FOUR years ...

$333.60 4yrs * 12 mths * $6.95 Tivo Service
$300.00 4yrs * 12 mths * $5.00 Cable Digital Box
======
$633.60 for another 4 yrs of the existing Series 2 setup

$477.60 for the SA8300HD rental
$240.00 for the DVR Serice
======
$717.60 for another 4 yrs of the existing SA8300HD.

Now, while the math says that the S3 is significantly more than sticking with the S2 or the SA8300HD individually, for me, it will be replacing BOTH of them...

$1227.19-$633.60-$717.60=$124.01 saving.

Now, is the loss of MRV / TTG / TCB worth $124.01?

NO!!!! But that $124.01 will go some way to offset the cost of keeping the S2 going (probably without the Cable decoder) to allow time for TiVo to get the MRV etc sorted.

albrandwood · 09-13-2006, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stahta01

I think it realy is a matter of how many hours you will work for the benifit of a Tivo series 3. In other words is S3 worth $800 is a how much you make per hour Question. I think if I was working right now it would be worth at least $400 dollars. If I made more money the value would go up alot.

Tim S

Yeah ... If I'd actually done any work today, instead of reading this forum, and trying to decide if I should shoot an S1 and get lifetime for the S3, or replace an S2, then I'd have earnt the money to pay for 30% of an S3 !!! :-D (of course, since I'm not gonna tell my boss I havent actually done any work, its not a big deal. :-)

@

dexthageek · 09-13-2006, 05:22 PM

Well, I am extremely disappointed

There is no way I can (nor do I want to) spend $800 on the S3 do I want one absolutely. FiOS is on its way to my area this year. And verizon has a Multi-Room DVR for $19.95 a month + the cost of the SD Box (which can play shows recorded on the DVR in a different room) which is $3.95 = Total $24 a month. And I will sadly have to retire my S2 since it is not compatible with FiOS.

Credit Card bill on S3 will be more then that a month

and that doesnt even include the $20 a month for both TiVo boxes and above that is the CableCard Rental

I really wanted an S3 but not at that price, I cant justify spending that.

Stephen Tu · 09-13-2006, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Now, while the math says that the S3 is significantly more than sticking with the S2 or the SA8300HD individually, for me, it will be replacing BOTH of them..

That's flawed logic. From your other post it seems you have quite a few Tivos. Retiring the S2 +1 cable box is a completely independent decision from replacing the SA8300HD. You could keep the SA8300HD but still retire the S2 + 1 cable box & get same cost savings. So add the 633.60 back to your costs. Otherwise you are comparing a single DVR, 2 recordings at a time solution to a 2 DVR 3 recordings at a time solution.

Also, are you sure you can get 2 cablecards for $1.95/month? It might be double that, $1.95 sounds like the cost for a single card. Costs are going to be all over the map from region to region, some are being hit with "digital equip fees" & "additional outlet fees" depending on what tiers they subscribe to. A lot may vary depending on how good you are at convincing customer service managers to drop fees.

ThreeSoFar'sBro · 09-13-2006, 05:45 PM

Are we absolutely sure that those with S1 lifetime units who purchase the lifetime option on the S3 can sell the S3 down the road with its lifetime intact? Or, in other words, is it transferrable?

I can justify the cost to myself........it's the wife I'm having trouble with!