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Old Yesterday, 01:27 AM   #1
MikeekiM
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Big Brother S18E18 (OAD 7/28/2016)

Nice twist... I like the idea that anyone sent out might be coming right back in...

They obviously made sure that the secret room was found...and that everyone got a ticket... They should have saved wasting our time and just handed out a ticket to each person and explain the rules... The whole secret room thing was so pointless...

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Old Yesterday, 05:37 AM   #2
gossamer88
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I've probably said this before about previous seasons, but man is this bunch unlikeable! Even James, who I liked before, can't stand him this season.

And Michelle is like a child. She needs some serious growing up. That was awkward to watch.

When they showed Frank with Boogie, I now know why I did not remember him. I swear I do not recall him from that season either...LOL!

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Old Yesterday, 07:42 AM   #3
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ech. i don't like the twist. i'm not a fan of anything where people who get booted get to come back...

Paulie (or Paul - which is which???) really messed up when he said he got to choose from a bunch of cards... i guess there was no way to keep the twist a secret.

That whole thing with Michelle was ridiculous.

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Old Yesterday, 07:43 AM   #4
Steveknj
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gossamer88 View Post
I've probably said this before about previous seasons, but man is this bunch unlikeable! Even James, who I liked before, can't stand him this season.

And Michelle is like a child. She needs some serious growing up. That was awkward to watch.

When they showed Frank with Boogie, I now know why I did not remember him. I swear I do not recall him from that season either...LOL!
I remembered him better once they showed him with Boogie and I didn't like him then either. I agree (although I disagree about James, I still like the guy), that this bunch is a bad bunch. There's very little strategy or game play. All those alliances that we saw that first week are already gone. I think BB having all these twists has ruined any type of planned strategy anyone has wanted to try and I think that is the cause of this. I liked it better when BB had a couple of twists a year, but this weekly stuff is a bit much. I often wonder how many of these twists were planned to be in regardless or if some of them are thrown in at the last minute because they can see how the season is going and they need to shake it up. As I said in the last thread, outside of Paulie and James, I couldn't care less who wins.

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Old Yesterday, 07:45 AM   #5
Steveknj
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Originally Posted by Cainebj View Post
ech. i don't like the twist. i'm not a fan of anything where people who get booted get to come back...

Paulie (or Paul - which is which???) really messed up when he said he got to choose from a bunch of cards... i guess there was no way to keep the twist a secret.

That whole thing with Michelle was ridiculous.
I agree, I've always hated the idea of getting voted out by your peers but can come back? I hated redemption island in Survivor for the same reason.

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Old Yesterday, 08:51 AM   #6
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This group is pretty bad. With the focus on Frank gone, I wonder how long before this whole house crumbles and fractures again.

I didn't recognize Nicole's showmance at first. They had to show the clips for me to remember who he was. And the one guy (I forgot his name) saying how nothing had changed: he still lived in his mom's basement, he worked at the grocery store, and he was alone, was funny. Hopefully it shows people that not everything changes if you are on BB!

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Old Yesterday, 02:00 PM   #7
Dnamertz
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And the one guy (I forgot his name) saying how nothing had changed: he still lived in his mom's basement, he worked at the grocery store, and he was alone, was funny. Hopefully it shows people that not everything changes if you are on BB!
You mean Pee Wee Herman?

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Old Yesterday, 05:50 PM   #8
stellie93
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I like a lot of the houseguests. I liked Frank for some reason, and Bridget is a nice girl--not exciting, but nice and good at challenges. I like James, and Da is playing an awesome game--I hated her the first time. And I like Paulie and Paul both--no idea which is which. Too bad he didn't get any advantage to being the first one to find the secret room.

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Old Yesterday, 06:30 PM   #9
series5orpremier
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If it's any consolation the chances are this ticket twist won't have any affect on the eviction outcomes whatsoever. So why do it? It's a network time killer to talk about it and adds a little suspense for the next few weeks to give each player a lotto ticket for a get out of jail free card.

This outs me as a dweeb but I calculated this stuff last night. Julie said the tickets expire August 18 (three more weeks), and the implication was there's only one golden ticket. Before Frank was evicted there was a one in three chance over the four weeks of the twist that any one player would avoid eviction because of it. Now that Frank didn't get it there's a one in four chance that anyone will benefit from it in the next three weeks. If nobody avoids eviction August 4, then there's a one in five chance anyone will benefit during the remaining two weeks of the twist, and if nobody avoids eviction August 11, then there's a one in nine chance that anyone will avoid eviction on August 18.

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Old Yesterday, 06:34 PM   #10
jay_man2
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Originally Posted by series5orpremier View Post
If it's any consolation the chances are this ticket twist won't have any affect on the eviction outcomes whatsoever. So why do it? It's a network time killer to talk about it and adds a little suspense for the next few weeks to give each player a lotto ticket for a get out of jail free card.

This outs me as a dweeb but I calculated this stuff last night. Julie said the tickets expire August 18 (three more weeks), and the implication was there's only one golden ticket. Before Frank was evicted there was a one in three chance over the four weeks of the twist that any one player would avoid eviction because of it. Now that Frank didn't get it, now there's a one in four chance that anyone will benefit from it in the next three weeks. If nobody avoids eviction August 4, then there's a one in five chance anyone will benefit during the remaining two weeks of the twist, and if nobody avoids eviction August 11, then there's a one in nine chance that anyone will avoid eviction on August 18.
Explain the math and probability theory. I see it as Frank having a 1 of 12 chance last night. Next week, whoever goes has a 1 in 11 chance, etc.

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Old Yesterday, 06:55 PM   #11
series5orpremier
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Explain the math and probability theory. I see it as Frank having a 1 of 12 chance. Next week, whoever goes has a 1 in 11 chance, etc.
Yes, you're talking about the chances for any given week. But to figure out the total probability over the remaining weeks of the twist you have to add up the probabilities for each remaining week of the twist. Also, if somebody avoids eviction before the final week of the twist then any probabilities for the weeks after that no longer count and you have to subtract those back out. Trust me, I used to do this for a living designing for product reliability. The relevant equation before the twist began, if the number of parenthesis are correct, was

(1/12) + ((11/12)*((1/11)+((10/11)*((1/10)+((9/10)*(1/9)))))) = 1/3

Actually, the chances over the remaining three weeks have changed slightly from what I quoted above because the 11/12 chance of nobody getting it this week is now a definite 100%. So we have

(1/11) + ((10/11)*((1/10)+((9/10)*(1/9))))) = 3/11 chance of anyone avoiding eviction over the next three weeks.

That makes too much sense and the math isn't even needed. There will be 3 evictions out of 11 players in the next 3 weeks. The chance that any one of those 3 currently has the golden ticket (from what we know at this time) is 3 out of 11.


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Old Yesterday, 10:14 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by series5orpremier View Post
Actually, the chances over the remaining three weeks have changed slightly from what I quoted above because the 11/12 chance of nobody getting it this week is now a definite 100%. So we have

(1/11) + ((10/11)*((1/10)+((9/10)*(1/9))))) = 3/11 chance of anyone avoiding eviction over the next three weeks.

That makes too much sense and the math isn't even needed. There will be 3 evictions out of 11 players in the next 3 weeks. The chance that any one of those 3 currently has the golden ticket (from what we know at this time) is 3 out of 11.
Unless there's a double eviction (it's about that time of year) in the next three weeks.

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Old Yesterday, 10:40 PM   #13
series5orpremier
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I think there will only be an extra double eviction later in the season IF somebody avoids an eviction sometime in the next three weeks. Even if there's a double eviction now and somebody avoids it because of this 'twist' it's effectively just a typical single eviction for that week and they'd have to do another double eviction later.

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Old Today, 06:25 AM   #14
gossamer88
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I've always liked the double-eviction episode. It really exposes the HoH. They cannot be too influenced by the other house guests.

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Old Today, 09:12 AM   #15
Cainebj
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Originally Posted by series5orpremier View Post
Julie said the tickets expire August 18.
I totally missed there is an expiration date.
That is somewhat better if it is just in play for 3 weeks.

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