Sold Out Tivos

Justin Thyme · 12-18-2005, 11:00 AM

Anyone else run into Tivo shortages? Or are your local stores all well stocked. I am wondering if we are just having a local shortage or if this is more broadly based.

I got caught. Naturally, my sister let's me know at the last minute that they need another Tivo due to them becoming addicted to the Tivo way and now refusing to watch the other TVs in the house without Tivo.

In a mocking tone that only sisters can achieve, she asked me why I gave her family heroin.

OK- so too late to go online, off to Compusa but sold out of all 40 hour units (snagged a 160GB drive at 25cents/gig though). Compusa online said they had them in stock, ok so when you need their inventory system most, it is on the fritz. Ok, so I drive to two other stores. NO 40 Hour Tivos in my city's Compusa. Guess that free promotion kind of wiped them out a little early.

No sweat, Go to BestBuy and their are tons of people in the aisle looking at the Tivo videos and trying to make up their mind. Fine. 4 Tivos with 40GB left, so I snag that one.

At least it wasn't as bad as the poor bastards who were waiting from early morning for the XBox 360's.

Only this device is not this year's model nor is it last year's model. Amazing times.

peteypete · 12-18-2005, 11:50 AM

I think 140s are sold out at all BBs, and it looks like amazon is using target to fulfill some orders, so it looks like the pipeline is getting cleared out.

lajohn27 · 12-18-2005, 12:06 PM

As noted in another thread.. the higher capacity units are appearing to NOT be restocked in any meaningful way throughout the country.

For example.. TIVO.COM even no longer sells the 300 Hr. Humax, the 140 Hr. TIVO, or the 80 Hr. Humax DVD unit.

Those same units are getting harder and harder to find in the retail channels as well.

The last time this happened was during the switch from the previous 240 series two units to the 540 series 'nightlight' series two boxes.

davezatz · 12-18-2005, 01:24 PM

CES should be interesting, no?

smark · 12-18-2005, 01:57 PM

Crapload around here.

ZeoTiVo · 12-18-2005, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lajohn27

As noted in another thread.. the higher capacity units are appearing to NOT be restocked in any meaningful way throughout the country.

For example.. TIVO.COM even no longer sells the 300 Hr. Humax, the 140 Hr. TIVO, or the 80 Hr. Humax DVD unit.

Those same units are getting harder and harder to find in the retail channels as well.

The last time this happened was during the switch from the previous 240 series two units to the 540 series 'nightlight' series two boxes.

40 hour TiVos in BB today and 40 hour DVD humax models. One 80 hour TiVo

yep the high capcity are clearing out. makes me look forward to 1st half of next year when you have the low end series 2 along side the high end Cable card unit

audiocrawford · 12-18-2005, 06:25 PM

Wow, every store in my area has stacks and stacks of 40hr units.

I'm really curious about TiVo's manufacturing. I just went through several new 140 units (two defectives...grrr...) from vendors on opposite sides of the country, and they all were manufactured in the same two-week period in 2004.

Then the 140 unit disapeared from the TiVo website, replaced by the Humax 300HR. I made a post about it, and a day or two later it went away and currently the three featured models are the 40HR, the 80HR, and a DVD unit. I'm curious how much of the marketing is based on what they have for existing inventory.

AC

ChuckyBox · 12-18-2005, 06:53 PM

The Best Buy stores in my area (L.A.) have stacks of boxes, too. Though they seem to be selling, I don't think there is any danger of them running out.

Amazon seems to be selling a lot. The 40-hour box is currently #15 on the electronics top-seller list. They're giving 5% off the $169.99 price, for a net of $11.49 after rebate. Free standard shipping, too, and you still get it by Christmas.

Justin Thyme · 12-18-2005, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeoTiVo

yep the high capcity are clearing out.

Huh- opposite here. They had 80 hour units or Tivo DVD burners with 40 hours, but not 40 hour units. At BB they had many more higher capacity units than low. I think Compusa stores in my city must have way underestimated reaction to their "free Tivo" promotion.

lajohn27 · 12-19-2005, 08:26 AM

My bets:

- The hardware inventory reductions thru attrition and not restocking are planned.

- In addition to the cablecard HD TIVO we keep hearing so much about... There will be a new higher capacity analog box.. loosely based on the Taiwan hardware.

ChuckyBox · 12-19-2005, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lajohn27

My bets:

- The hardware inventory reductions thru attrition and not restocking are planned.

While I agree with your basic premise, there is an another possibility: TiVo was scaling down production earlier in the year under Ramsay. Rogers, however, has decided to go on a subscription drive. Since the change came late in the year, they had to quickly ramp up production. So they dropped the 140, focused on the 40 for retail and the 80 for their new analog cable partners (with the leftovers going to retail). Though they didn't make a lot of the 140s, by dropping them the manufacturer could drop one production changeover (drives, testing, packaging), as could the printer of the boxes, and so on. It probably allowed them to produce a lot more 40s.

Quote:

- In addition to the cablecard HD TIVO we keep hearing so much about... There will be a new higher capacity analog box.. loosely based on the Taiwan hardware.

Considering the strategic shift toward the analog cable market, I wouldn't be surprised to see a dual-tuner analog box sometime next year. Though I doubt they would announce that until it was actually shipping.

ZeoTiVo · 12-19-2005, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChuckyBox

Considering the strategic shift toward the analog cable market, I wouldn't be surprised to see a dual-tuner analog box sometime next year. Though I doubt they would announce that until it was actually shipping.

that is a read that can make sense as well. Though I think they are headed to a dirt cheap or free Analog 40 or 80 hour TiVo and dual tuners just would not fit dirt cheap.
I imagine the higher end Cable card TiVo with dual tuners will work with those who only have extended basic cable on Analog with no set top box.

Justin Thyme · 12-19-2005, 11:09 AM

What surprizes me is how stubborn that analog segment is.

My sister and one of my brothers are on analog and seem at least to me to be almost irrationally insistent about not wanting/ needing a cablebox. Cable to them is appealing only because it is better reception and a few more channels than over the air. They simply aren't interested in more, and have become even more deeply entrenched in their opinion due to their use of Tivo to magnify the amount of interesting content available at any time.

Although this market seems to me to be very price sensitive, Tivo can be a competitive alternative for analog users tempted by the amount of content available if they converted to digital.

stevel · 12-19-2005, 08:04 PM

My local Costco had dozens of 140-hour models on the shelf this evening.

ZeoTiVo · 12-19-2005, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Thyme

What surprizes me is how stubborn that analog segment is.

My sister and one of my brothers are on analog and seem at least to me to be almost irrationally insistent about not wanting/ needing a cablebox. Cable to them is appealing only because it is better reception and a few more channels than over the air. They simply aren't interested in more, and have become even more deeply entrenched in their opinion due to their use of Tivo to magnify the amount of interesting content available at any time.

Although this market seems to me to be very price sensitive, Tivo can be a competitive alternative for analog users tempted by the amount of content available if they converted to digital.

while I do not think I am irrationally entrenched, I saw nothing in digital that I wanted save for HD and that I can wait for. Not so much price sensitive as looking at the value in my case. For less than the monthly cost of going to digital and renting the cable boxes and DVRs I have 4 SA TiVos that also do HME and TTG
and pull off the kind of content I want.

Now I do add in Netflix to get the movies and that way get them at DVD release date instead of VOD release. so that changes the cost but still I just hook the cable up to the TiVo and have no hassles.

I am another one that just does not see the allure of digital the way it is structured now by the cable companies and the way they pushed cable card away.

TiVoStephen · 12-20-2005, 01:16 AM

Let me know which Best Buy stores you see that are sold out. Our information shows that they all have plenty of stock (to go along with the free Three-Month Gift Card promotion they are currently holding).

Best regards,
Stephen

ChuckyBox · 12-20-2005, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiVoOpsMgr

Let me know which Best Buy stores you see that are sold out. Our information shows that they all have plenty of stock (to go along with the free Three-Month Gift Card promotion they are currently holding).

Best regards,
Stephen

Best Buy may have plenty of stock, but apparently tivo.com doesn't. You're out of the 40-hour and the Humax DVD boxes. Amazon ran out of the 40s, too.

I thought the big guy said you had sufficient inventory for the holidays.

mattack · 12-20-2005, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Thyme

What surprizes me is how stubborn that analog segment is.

My sister and one of my brothers are on analog and seem at least to me to be almost irrationally insistent about not wanting/ needing a cablebox.

You consider it irrational.

I love the fact that all of my stuff has cable ready (analog) tuners in it. I have the cable split a bunch of times and have 2 Tivos, a hard-drive/DVD recorder, my TV, and in the past, a VCR connected. That's just in my room -- downstairs has more.

The DirecTivos, with their dual tuners, were the first thing that made me ever even consider satellite. (2 DirecTivos would pretty much cover the same as I have now, at least for most uses.)

I really want to see the dual-tuner cable card Tivo too, but I hope it'll have dual analog tuners too.

If ALL of the channels that I watch went digital, then obviously I'd prefer cable card rather than a box. As it is now, the cable box's added value is relatively low to me, especially since I'd need to not only get the box, but go up another significantly expensive tier in cable rates, for only a couple of channels that I care about. I still have (and probably will again in the future) tried digital cable when they had special short term deals, but I stopped it as the deal ran out.

As a box-hater, I admit I'm fairly intrigued by the $90 HD tuner box from radio shack. If standalone Tivos could control it, I'd probably get one immediately just to play with (for the PBS multiple channels, at least).

DCIFRTHS · 12-21-2005, 05:08 AM

This is a shot of one of the smaller BB stores in my area (there are four of them). The picture only shows half the wall. It was much higher (with TiVos) a few weeks ago.

Pic is from a camera phone and digitally zoomed, so no comments on how bad the quality is

Click Here.

LBCABob · 12-21-2005, 09:17 AM

An observation:

This thread would have more meaning if those posting had the "location" part of their logon information filled in (at least the state).

mike3775 · 12-21-2005, 09:22 AM

Like HD, some people prefer to not have to pay cable companies even more money just to watch TV.

I know for a fact if Comcast were to move every single channel to digital and not offer analog, alot of my friends would simply be buying alot more DVD's of TV shows, and they would also pirate others as well to watch.

davezatz · 12-21-2005, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike3775

I know for a fact if Comcast were to move every single channel to digital and not offer analog, alot of my friends would simply be buying alot more DVD's of TV shows, and they would also pirate others as well to watch.

That day is coming... Comcast drops two more channels from my analog line-up next week. Personally, I'd be fine with OTA. I might miss a few shows from cable but I'd get over it. Not to mention, we've already started watching most TV shows via Netflix and only watch news and sports via cable/TiVo.

mike3775 · 12-21-2005, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davezatz

That day is coming... Comcast drops two more channels from my analog line-up next week. Personally, I'd be fine with OTA. I might miss a few shows from cable but I'd get over it. Not to mention, we've already started watching most TV shows via Netflix and only watch news and sports via cable/TiVo.

Exactly, Iforgot about renting stuff as well. They would do that as well I imagine.

I have digital, but if the rates keep going up, I'm going to drop it in a heartbeat and go to sateelite(as long as they do not raise their rates)

jmoak · 12-21-2005, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiVoOpsMgr

Let me know which Best Buy stores you see that are sold out. Our information shows that they all have plenty of stock (to go along with the free Three-Month Gift Card promotion they are currently holding).

Best regards,
Stephen

Best Buy
1900 Evans Rd, Melbourne, FL 32904

Visited yesterday.
After finding none of any kind on the floor, a sales drone rolled his eyes and said, "YOU want one, TOO?" and told me they had sold out of 40 and 140hr boxes and had a "few" 80's in their computer but he had no idea where to find them and coldly suggested I come back tomorrow.

btw,
Congrats on the estimated 200,000 dtivo sales in the month of october.
Not too bad....

nhaigh · 12-21-2005, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmoak

Congrats on the estimated 200,000 dtivo sales in the month of october.
Not too bad....

Isn't that down to panic buying?

JohnTivo · 12-21-2005, 07:14 PM

Panic buying or not, it shows that people still want a DirecTV DVR powered by Tivo.

neekoh · 12-21-2005, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin Thyme

What surprizes me is how stubborn that analog segment is.

My sister and one of my brothers are on analog and seem at least to me to be almost irrationally insistent about not wanting/ needing a cablebox. Cable to them is appealing only because it is better reception and a few more channels than over the air. They simply aren't interested in more, and have become even more deeply entrenched in their opinion due to their use of Tivo to magnify the amount of interesting content available at any time.

Although this market seems to me to be very price sensitive, Tivo can be a competitive alternative for analog users tempted by the amount of content available if they converted to digital.

I am one of these people that subscribe only to basic-extended cable, not because I'm necessarily non-technical or price sensitive, but exactly because I wanted better reception and can find enough good content with basic-extended cable and TiVo.

TiVo needs to be marketing to "Homer Simpson" -- those folks in middle America who enjoy their MTV and ESPN but don't require the super-duper bleeding edge technology. These folks are less price sensitive as much as they need a compelling reason to buy. I think you hit the nail on the head. TiVo should position itself as a maximizer of basic extended cable, but I'm not sure of Comcast would appreciate positioning TiVo that way.

c3 · 12-22-2005, 03:29 AM

I have analog basic cable, not even extended basic. With 3 TiVos, I'm already watching too much TV. Not interested in paying more for channels I don't have time to watch.

ChuckyBox · 12-22-2005, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neekoh

I think you hit the nail on the head. TiVo should position itself as a maximizer of basic extended cable, but I'm not sure of Comcast would appreciate positioning TiVo that way.

TiVo is doing exactly that. The new CEO has targeted the analog basic cable market as TiVo's best opportunity for growth in the standalone box market.

The Comcast offering will be software running on the Motorola dual-tuner digital DVR hardware. It will only be offered to digital cable subscribers.

Justin Thyme · 12-22-2005, 11:24 AM

Tagging it as "analog" doesn't really go to the core of this market segment though, Right? Because the users in this segment are going to remain in the same coherant group long past the digital switchover. I mean like 10 years from now when someone buys the most affordable 27 inch DTV, the most affordable content for that set will be Over the Air (OTA) digital channels, and because of FCC carriage rules, most of those will be in the Basic cable package.

So at that point, for Tivo to serve that segment it makes sense to me that you have a box that does what the current S2 does, but also will record ATSC digital directly from OTA or from their basic digital package.

Whether or not that individual has an antennae on their roof, as I understand the legislation that looks like a done deal now, everyone with an analog set is eligible for a $40 check (2 coupons per family)

See where I'm going here? Such a ATSC QAM Tivo would qualify as a digital converter box, and Moore's law will bring the cost of that Tivo down to practical nothing by 2009. So the beauty is that an SA Tivo's hardware cost in that timeframe could largely be paid for by the feds. That's my crackpot observation of the day.

Antiquarian as it may seem now, the antennaes may start sprouting again on rooftops. Digital also means that each station can have 4 channels instead of one ("multicasting"), it also means that digital transmissions are much more free of the kind of reception noise problems that analog suffers from.

So over the air with a Tivo as a mulitplier becomes a viable alternative to basic cable service. In many metropolitan areas, it is a viable replacement for even more. Areas with as few as 6 channels now will be able to broadcast 24 digital, and many cable users buying more comprehensive packages may ask why they aren't keeping their money and use OTA instead.