Is DirecTV completely dropping Tivo?

[kenham]

Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!

[mwhitted]

Originally Posted by kenham

Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!

Looks like you haven't been around DirecTV/TiVo very long. Do a search here and you'll find that this is not "news". What was the context of the CNBC story?

[yunlin12]

Probably the JP Morgan downgrade on Tivo stock

[JimSpence]

Wasn't there a recent report that DirecTV and TiVo have agreed to continue their relationship for another couple of years?

[HiDefGator]

I "think" the continued relationship agreement was to cover the time period between now and when no DirecTivo box is still out there active. I don't believe there was any agreement to make new boxes or to continue to sell DirecTivos after the non-Tivo boxes are released.

[Hodaka]

I would just guess that DirecTV has only worked out a "maintenance" type agreement to keep guide data arriving and maybe fix any major flaws. I seriously doubt they've signed any agreement that will give them access to new software upgrades, features, etc. since they're probably going to be pushing their own boxes pretty hard..

[jmoak]

from a PC Mag article a few months ago:

The DIRECTV DVR will compete head on with TiVo-based DirecTV branded DVRs. The company will continue to offer both "for the foreseeable future", claimed a rep at the company's booth.

...but who knows....
Forget what directv says. I guess cnbc knows more about what directv is going to do than directv does.

[HiDefGator]

Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.

[Justin Thyme]

The revenue stream from Direct needs to be looked at- as has often been said, the raw numbers of users is extremely misleading. Tivo get $1 per unit for direct, $12 for SA. That means in terms of revenue growth, Direct is around 20% of the picture for Tivo. Lots and lots of DirectTivo users have to leave for this to have much real impact.

The Forbes article said this:

The research firm [JP Morgan] said DirecTV could begin to transition its TiVo base to new technology, starting with shipments of the first non-TiVo digital video recorders in August or September. "We believe such a DirecTV D-Day would rattle investor confidence, since DirecTV drives more than 70% of current TiVo subscriber growth,"

Subscriber growth. Not revenue growth. And notte the soft terminology that mirrors Direct's PR stance on the subject- They are saying transition- not positiioning it as some sort of agressive switchover plan, such as big giveaways, making DirecTivo users switch over, plans to remove turn off service to Tivo units as part of the switchover etc.

IMHO, I think DirecTV may get a "New Coke" reaction from their subscribers, and will take a second look at the role of Tivo after observing advertising revenues that Comcast gets from a Tivo partnership.

We'll see. So far we haven't seen good Ipod or Mac clones even though Apple has been around for 2 decades. Good UI seems elusive for most companies. I don't know why that is. Good luck to them- if it really does everything that the Tivo does (as jmoak's pcmag article quoted DirecTv as boasting), then I'm for it. I am extremely skeptical they will do TTG or HME, but hey if they do, that would be cool.

[HiDefGator]

DirecTV won't need to offer deals to get people to switch from Tivo DVR's to their own. This path would cost more than the return. But keep in mind the normal yearly subscriber churn. Old customers never return their old units back to DTV. They go in the trash or the garage. New customers will always get non-Tivo units. Warranty replacements will all be non-Tivo.

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.

[davsherm]

Originally Posted by HiDefGator

Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.

I wonder how much longer you will be able to get a new directivo after the launch of the directpvr. This may up the value of "used" units kicking around on ebay. I know I will have a couple in the closet for "spares" until I find something better, or am forced to switch.

[Hodaka]

yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..

[Justin Thyme]

Originally Posted by HiDefGator

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.

What's the option? Buying an SA Tivo.

Do you think that all DVRs from Direct will be free? They aren't for Dish. I am on Dish, and they have had a DVR for a while now. Dish wants me to give them $300 for theirs. Sure a new customer to Direct, like Dish may get a "free" one. The second one will likely be $300 though.

So compare that to a street price of around $100 for a tivo that can be upgraded to HD storage far in excess of anything Direct will ever offer.

So they may take the free one, then get a Tivo SA for the bedroom. Now they see the difference. Then they have a perspective on the Tivo advantage.

[HiDefGator]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. And worse it costs $12.95 a month per box. I know I'm cheap but there is no way I'm paying $12.95 a month per box for DVR functionality after I have to pay for the box itself too. Especially if DTV will subsidize the cost of a similar box and offer a fee that covers all of them.

I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.

[patonenow]

Of course they are droping them. They used TIVO to build up their base with the intention of later after picking their brains to start their own in-house device. Really funny cause they now pay TIVO $1 a subscription and charge us $4.99 each. But you can bet they will start charging $5.99 or a short time at $4.99 and then soon at the dollar increase for their OWN in-house device. Plus they will probably add on more things it will do for more money.
TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run. So MR. MURDOCK better start emptying your vast pockets.

[Rax]

Funny how people are naive enough to think DirecTV will tank without the floundering TiVo company.

[patonenow]

Originally Posted by Rax

Funny how people are naive enough to think DirecTV will tank without the floundering TiVo company.

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

[lee espinoza]

Originally Posted by Hodaka

yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..

Same here

[lee espinoza]

Originally Posted by patonenow

.
TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run.

I agree on your all statement but this one , i think DIRECTV could have gotten were they are now with or with-out TIVO

[lee espinoza]

Originally Posted by patonenow

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million


do you want to restate YOUR statement?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DirecTV


http://www.sbca.com/index.asp


DISH, ALPHASTAR, PRIMESTAR, VOOM, has never had the same secuess as DIRECTV, same with the cable corps.

[FlWingNut]

Originally Posted by patonenow

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

Yeah, good luck with that. The Directivo is a nice machine, but D* will do fine. Most folks, I would guess, just want a good DVR. I have 2 Directivos but really prefered UTV. Better UI, in my opinion, faster, more logical. So why did I switch? The extra 5 bucks a month D* wanted for it, compared to Tivo. Couldn't justify that. The Tivo experience, once I got used to its annoyances (no caller ID, no PIP, slow menus, having to do with three buton presses what UTV did in one) has been just fine, but if the R15 experience is just as good, I think you'll find it doesn't matter to most subscribers. I signed up for D*, Tivo's just along for the ride.

[jmoak]

I see a lot of folks (and expert analysts) assumeing that the first day that directv begins selling the r15's is the last day we'll see any "tivo powered" dvr's sold at directv, discounting the units already in the supply chain. aka, the release of the r15 spells the end of the directv/tivo era.

Let's "assume" that directv has some common sense for the moment....()

The quality and the resulting churn rate of users of the r15 will be the deciding factor for the "end of tivo w/directv".

If the customer is happy and the churn rate is equal to or less than 0.5% (dtivo's worst historic churn), no more tivo.

Tivo took on competition at directv from a company with one of the biggest r&d departments and the deepest pockets of any company in the world...... and won. Can they do it again?

Directv has pushed back the release date of their new dvr quite a few times now, with the latest delay coming even after telling their retailers "Here they come!"

Directv's got until 2007 to find out if they can do it or not.


after days with no response...
noone thinks churn, customer reaction and satisfaction has anything to do with it? why the heck do i do this?? nobody even reads my posts anymore.....

[bidger]

Originally Posted by lee espinoza

LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million


do you want to restate YOUR statement?

Thanks for providing the numbers Lee. I couldn't help but groan when I saw the statement about how TiVo MADE DirecTV by patonenow. What made DirecTV, and Dish for that matter, was that they blindsided cable through cable's estimation they would always be a "rural" provider, which lead to an apathetic "take it or leave it" attitude on their part, IMO. When locals started being provided, that really opened the floodgates

I did own a TiVo prior to owning a D-TiVo, still do. I keep one for OTA and even if DirecTV offered locals in my area, I intend to keep the SA so I can keep my CBS, FOX, and PBS distant nets. I was with DirecTV for over two years before buying one. I do have to say I see no reason whatsoever to buy a non-DVR receiver from this point forward. I will use my D-TiVos until they are no longer operational, but I will keep checking out threads on the DirecTV DVRs to check out what they might offer that's not currently on the D-TiVos. That doesn't necessarily mean I'll buy one, but I'd like to keep informed.

[patonenow]

LEE, Not trying to start an argument,especially with one that loved SELENA much as I do. I trust the figures you presented but looking at that would you say that about4 and a half million subscribers were picked up in the last 5 years? And how many years did it take to reach the 2000 figure? And as everyone knows figures can be made to show whatever one wants just as the government plays with them everyday. For example how many subscribers were reabsorbed or retained by offering the "new" TIVO.
My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here. I am 63 and have been around this game with the dishes a very long time. So suffice it to say I stand by my opinion and wish you all luck. Only wish that all the gadgets they have today were around when I was younger.

[Justin Thyme]

Originally Posted by HiDefGator

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. ... I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.

I get it. $2000 for an HDTV but 12.95/month is too high. My wife doesn't go to blockbuster anymore after tivo- So any DVR is better than no DVR. Question is which. You are putting forward a price argument and it doesn't wash. Here's why-

Today, you can go to Tivo.com and buy an SA Tivo for $299 and never pay any service fee ever. Or you can Pay Dish $349 for their DVR box, plus $5/month for DVR "access fees".

Which number is bigger? You do the math.

When you are done scratching your head over that one, check out the prices of tivos with lifetime subs on Ebay. That's right- three year old Tivo boxes with lifetime subs go for $250 or so. You think your resale will be that high on a Carrier provided box? Think again. Most carrier boxes get tossed.

Tivo has the added option that you don't have to pay $299 up front if you don't want. You can effectively rent the thing for $12.95 and so you can jump ship anytime you want. For many leary of fads, this is appealing, but they don't jump.

As for HD? Go visit your local store. That wall that was once filled with HDTV flat panels is now filled with EDTVs at a fraction the price. HD is great for sports and videophiles. Most people simply don't care and often don't even notice if one speaker of a stereo is unplugged.

That's reality.

So what do people really ask for- they want to archive their shows permanently. So does Direct have any intention of providing TTG or a DVD burner DVR? You bet they don't. To my knowlege, not a single carrier does offer such a box. How much you want to bet they put macrovision and color striping in to keep you from burning with an external DVD recorder.

As far as I am concerned, the carriers still have a hand to play, but as hardware encoder chips come down, they will seee what little advantage they now have slip away. Whether the big winner is Tivo, Apple's, Microsoft's or Sony's DVR box is anyone's guess. But the days of the carriers being able to dictate consumer hardware choices will soon be over for good.

[bidger]

Originally Posted by patonenow

My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here.

Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.


I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.

[lee espinoza]

Originally Posted by bidger

Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.


I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.

Just to tell you, I just got a DSR708 and I AM in a BIG MARKET

[jmoak]

Originally Posted by bidger

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base.

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q

[lee espinoza]

Originally Posted by jmoak

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q

In the 10-Q report it says that DIRECTV GENERATED 14% TO 15% OF TIVO's net revenues


DIRECTV generated
approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues for the three months ended April 30, 2005 and 2004, respectively

and DIRECTV pays TIVO $ 1.19 PER MONTH per DIRECTVTIVO SUB


We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth.
Our relationship with DIRECTV could be affected in the future by News Corp.’s acquisition of The DIRECTV Group. On
December 22, 2003, News Corp. acquired General Motor’s 19.8% economic interest in Hughes, subsequently renamed The
DIRECTV Group. Simultaneously, News Corp. acquired an additional 14.2% of The DIRECTV Group for a total of 34% of its
outstanding stock. It is possible that DIRECTV under News Corp. could seek to transition to an alternative DVR technology platform,
such as that created by NDS, which is majority-owned by News Corp. It is also possible News Corp. may slow the pace of DVR
deployment by DIRECTV in an effort to protect its content businesses from perceived threats posed by DVRs. DIRECTV has
recently announced that its core initiatives and new customer acquisition will focus on its new DVR from NDS. As a consequence,
the growth in the number of DIRECTV customers with TiVo service could be harmed in the future resulting in the loss of future high
margin revenues.

If our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or replaced, our business could
be harmed. A significant number of our new and existing TiVo service subscriptions are DIRECTV customers with TiVo service.
Our current development agreement with DIRECTV does not expire until February 2007. Neither TiVo nor DIRECTV will have any
further obligations to each other if our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or
replaced. While DIRECTV would have the right to continue to service existing DIRECTV receivers with TiVo service without
payment to us, it would not have the right to add new DIRECTV customers with TiVo service. And while TiVo would no longer be
able to generate additional revenue from the then-current DIRECTV customers with TiVo service, we would have no further
obligation to provide upgrades, fixes, new features, or software support. DIRECTV, however, also has the option under our current
development agreement to buy a royalty-bearing software and technology license from us. This license would grant DIRECTV access
to our source code and technology to make, modify (with certain exceptions), sell, and distribute DIRECTV receivers with TiVo
service to add new subscribers after the expiration of our current agreement.

[Justin Thyme]

Like I was saying, the revenue picture tells a different story.

approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues

Kind of makes you wonder what the Morgan analysts are thinking.

Going with Murdoch owned NDS Group software provides features Tivo users only dream about- like Snapshot. Just imagine being able to take a still frame of anything you see on television and sending the picture to your telephone. And, always keeping the user's interests number one, NDS gives the user the ability to preview the image before demanding payment.

No figures are given, but I'm sure the mobile phone service providers and Murdoch's organization will work out a figure that will not surprize anyone.

Of course, with Tivo with TTG or an MCE for about $900 more you can grab frames to your hearts content and load them directly onto your phone without any permission, software feature, or fee from either your carrier or your cell phone company.