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Old 08-11-2012, 08:29 PM   #1
sbiller
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TiVo Seeking Alpha article

http://seekingalpha.com/article/7980...e?source=yahoo

I would be happy to discuss any of the non-investment items related to my SA article here.
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Old 08-12-2012, 12:13 AM   #2
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So would this be the wrong place to ask why it was up last fall and this past spring (where did the summer go?) relative to now, without any talk of what it may or may not do in the future?
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Old 08-12-2012, 06:47 AM   #3
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So would this be the wrong place to ask why it was up last fall and this past spring (where did the summer go?) relative to now, without any talk of what it may or may not do in the future?
Uncertainty and disappointment regarding Charter is the best explanation i have. The previous CEO of Charter had planned on rolling TiVo out to the entire footprint in the first half of 2012. The change in direction at Charter also resulted in TiVo taking an inventory charge in their last quarter.
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Old 08-12-2012, 11:58 AM   #4
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I wouldn't invest in Tivo, unless they can sell a retail plug and play DVR. As demonstrated here, a new CEO could shut down Tivo on an MSO at the drop of a hat.

A significant and growing percentage of young people don't even use cable TV anymore. With the exception of sports, you can watch just about anything online and a large percentage of the online content can be had for free with no consequences. Given the high unemployment rate among young people and the continuing rising cost of cable, they can't really afford cable TV. Behavior patterns are established at a young age, so these people aren't likely to ever use cable TV.
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Old 08-12-2012, 01:29 PM   #5
celtic pride
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thats so true my 2 kids are always on their computer and didnt even want a tivo when i offered to get them one, and one of my sons doesnt even want a tv! he just uses his computer for everything!,and the only reason my other son has a tv is because he has a playstation3! (I myself dont play video games and just watch my tivo,and just use my computer for surfing the internet. I could never ever comprehend somebody not wanting or using a televison!!!
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Old 08-12-2012, 01:30 PM   #6
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I wouldn't invest in Tivo, unless they can sell a retail plug and play DVR. As demonstrated here, a new CEO could shut down Tivo on an MSO at the drop of a hat.
TiVo's future relies on their MSO partnerships. Retail customers like you and I still a very important source of revenue for TiVo but our importance will grow less and less important as TiVo expands its MSO deals internationally and in the US. At some point in the next year or so I expect to see an announcement as to the successor to CableCARD which I'm speculating will be a software downloadable version of CableCARD. Its also possible that the FCC adds additional regulations to provide more access to cable operator content on retail devices but I don't expect it to be full open access. Theoretically the current CableCARD is supposed to be plug and play and it actually is pretty painless for some cable operators. The friction associated with CableCARD installation and configuration has certainly improved in the last year but it is more than the common consumer is will to endure for a service that doesn't differentiate enough from the generic cable operator DVR.

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A significant and growing percentage of young people don't even use cable TV anymore. With the exception of sports, you can watch just about anything online and a large percentage of the online content can be had for free with no consequences. Given the high unemployment rate among young people and the continuing rising cost of cable, they can't really afford cable TV. Behavior patterns are established at a young age, so these people aren't likely to ever use cable TV.
I agree that cord nevers and cord cutting is real but I don't expect it to be a real issue for MSOs for the foreseeable future. Content is king and the cable operators are still in control of the content that most consumers want to see.
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Old 09-23-2012, 12:44 PM   #7
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I don't understand the TiVo business model. I like being able to watch what I want when I want and without ads. I like being able to skim, fast forward, stop in the middle, just watch part, ... Am I not the target?

I've had TiVo service for seven years, just upgraded. I'm surprised at how limited the 'suggestions' software seems to be, and how cumbersome some of the interfaces are.

My initial goal was to cut the cord, cable here seems overly costly, and Hulu, Netflix, streaming didn't provide the experience I wanted. All I finally got rid of was AT&T - I switched to Ooma and am very pleased. So I switched from DSL to Cable, upgraded all to digital, and started to follow this forum.

Since I'm a subscriber, TiVo already knows a lot about me. Add to that my program choices and there's a pretty detailed profile. Please me more, with a more customized interface, and they collect even more data. I might even watch an ad or accept an offer.

And here I am online, more data to collect.

The surveys I receive are sloppily crafted, to collect what an advertiser might want. But if I'm not there to watch, where's the value?

OK - I'm not the target, but maybe I should be. Desktop. No smart phone. No tablet. Cable. Retired.

I saw the Seeking Alpha article, am looking for investments for hard times, where do consumers spend ... entertainment, convenience food, ... started thinking TiVo would be a natural ... but it seems not ... I would have expected them to be a big success. I'm wait to see the results of the lawsuits next month. ...

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Old 09-23-2012, 07:43 PM   #8
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/7980...e?source=yahoo

I would be happy to discuss any of the non-investment items related to my SA article here.
How do you think things will change if TiVo win its lawsuit with Verizon? Another article on SA suggest that if Verizon were to lose it would officer the TiVo service not just pay TiVo to go away.
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Old 09-23-2012, 08:11 PM   #9
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How do you think things will change if TiVo win its lawsuit with Verizon? Another article on SA suggest that if Verizon were to lose it would officer the TiVo service not just pay TiVo to go away.
It's a good question. I'm guessing that TiVo would like on demand access for its customers and that could be part of the settlement equation. I expect that we could see some movement from the FCC that might make retail on demand access in play for a successor to CableCard anyway.

I think there is also some early evidence from the Xfinity support of TiVo that suggests its helping with retail churn and adoption. There is definitely a subset of customers who feel the lack of on demand on TiVo makes it less desirable. The ability to catch up on linear TV via on demand is certainly a nice-to-have.
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Old 09-23-2012, 08:17 PM   #10
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It's a good question. I'm guessing that TiVo would like on demand access for its customers and that could be part of the settlement equation. I expect that we could see some movement from the FCC that might make retail on demand access in play for a successor to CableCard anyway.
In light of Verizon copy protecting HBO and Cinemax program (a negative for TiVo, plus for getting a Verizon DVR) TiVo having on demand would reset the balance to some degree. I would definitely like to see this.
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:38 PM   #11
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In light of Verizon copy protecting HBO and Cinemax program (a negative for TiVo, plus for getting a Verizon DVR) TiVo having on demand would reset the balance to some degree. I would definitely like to see this.
How is it a negative for TiVo or a plus for a Verizon DVR? You can still record it with your TiVo Premiere. And you can stream it to a Premiere in another room. With On demand on FiOS you typically get a lower quality than what was broadcast and it might only be in stereo while being in 5.1 when broadcast.
The only real negative is that you can't transfer it from the TiVo to a PC for permanent storage. But you can't do that with a FiOS box on any channel.
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:51 PM   #12
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Verizon to Pay More Than $510 Million to TiVo, ActiveVideo

Quote:
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It's a good question. I'm guessing that TiVo would like on demand access for its customers and that could be part of the settlement equation. I expect that we could see some movement from the FCC that might make retail on demand access in play for a successor to CableCard anyway.

I think there is also some early evidence from the Xfinity support of TiVo that suggests its helping with retail churn and adoption. There is definitely a subset of customers who feel the lack of on demand on TiVo makes it less desirable. The ability to catch up on linear TV via on demand is certainly a nice-to-have.
Gee, if you blink you miss it. That was almost fast. So what your opinion of all that has happen today. Also, a dumb question, some have stated that this could make TiVo a M&T candidate. What M&T? Is this good or bad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...o-suit-1-.html
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:12 PM   #13
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Merger and takeover.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:50 PM   #14
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How do you think end users will be affected by Tivo's cutbacks in R&D investments?

Why do you think Tivo's product for DirecTV is so crippled? Do you think that will change?
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Old 09-25-2012, 01:26 PM   #15
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How do you think end users will be affected by Tivo's cutbacks in R&D investments?

Why do you think Tivo's product for DirecTV is so crippled? Do you think that will change?
1. Not much, most of that is probably back end development to integrate to new and different cable systems or VOD systems.

2. Because they aren't interested in working together anymore. DirecTV wants to use their own in house developed hardware and software and it is not very compatible with TiVo's. Also, I don't think DTV wants to pay TiVo to redevelop for their infrastructure when they already have working products.
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