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Old 09-24-2014, 12:10 AM   #151
tarheelblue32
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A lot of stuff has to change, without a control road, the problems are immense, road construction with lane changes needed, snow on the road (my radar speed control in my car will not work in heavy rain and most likely snow.) Insurance has to cover this, great idea but not anytime soon, they can't even get airplanes to use automatic flight path GPS yet. Accident avoidance systems will get better over time, but auto driving not so fast, still 50 years out. (We can't even find a replacement for the lead acid battery use in cars, and that technology is over 100 years old!!.) In high school in the late 50s they showed the future of travel using personal flying machines in place of cars that would be common by the turn of the 21st century, even in high school I though that was bull, and it was.
Self-driving cars are definitely not "50 years out". They already exist, and will be available for purchase within 10 years, commonplace in 20 years, and almost mandatory within 30 years. They don't just use radar/laser sensors, they also use visual cameras, so they can see better than your eyes can, even in the rain and snow. Not to mention their reaction time and decision making will be far better than any human driver. Insuring them will be much cheaper than insuring a manually driven car, because insurance is all about risk pooling, and self-driving cars will be involved in far fewer accidents overall than manual cars.
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Old 09-24-2014, 10:31 AM   #152
lessd
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Self-driving cars are definitely not "50 years out". They already exist, and will be available for purchase within 10 years, commonplace in 20 years, and almost mandatory within 30 years. They don't just use radar/laser sensors, they also use visual cameras, so they can see better than your eyes can, even in the rain and snow. Not to mention their reaction time and decision making will be far better than any human driver. Insuring them will be much cheaper than insuring a manually driven car, because insurance is all about risk pooling, and self-driving cars will be involved in far fewer accidents overall than manual cars.
Future speculation is fun as it would take almost 20 years to prove you or I were incorrect in our assumptions.
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Old 09-24-2014, 11:00 AM   #153
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Future speculation is fun as it would take almost 20 years to prove you or I were incorrect in our assumptions.
That's why I find it annoying.
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Old 09-24-2014, 03:15 PM   #154
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Future speculation is fun as it would take almost 20 years to prove you or I were incorrect in our assumptions.
There's no doubt that whatever happens in the next 20 or 40 years will be amazing but the track record of predicting that far out is terrible. Back around 1950 people were predicting we would all be flying to work in our personal flying cars or helicopters. And then there were the ominous predictions of global **cooling** around 1970.
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Old 09-25-2014, 12:10 AM   #155
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There's no doubt that whatever happens in the next 20 or 40 years will be amazing but the track record of predicting that far out is terrible. Back around 1950 people were predicting we would all be flying to work in our personal flying cars or helicopters. And then there were the ominous predictions of global **cooling** around 1970.
+1 And the internet was not on anybody's radar
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