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Old 06-18-2013, 10:28 AM   #31
bradleys
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Originally Posted by atmuscarella View Post
Actually an OTA only DVR has less costs than a cable one - no cable card hardware or certification which is a significant cost.

In any event I agree with those that do not believe an OTA only box is likely, the cost of adding OTA tuners when they are digital only to a DVR is minor and there are many people who want the combined units.
But I do not think they would do an OTA only box - I think they would do a box that includes OTA functionality. It has a much larger market share then an OTA only box.

If I buy an OTA only box then I can never use it for cable, if I buy a Cable only box, I can never cut the cord. If I purchase a box that offers both options then my options are open.

I think you would find a lot of people springing for the extra $50 just to keep their options open.
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Old 06-18-2013, 10:39 AM   #32
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I don't think Tivo would bother with an OTA-dedicated box. The market isn't big enough. Plus with analog support removed, that makes it easier to make a combined cable/OTA box.

The Premiere and XL launched at $300 and $500. The Elite/XL4 also launched at $500. I'm using those points as my guide.

- $300 4-tuner Cable/OTA
- $400 6-tuner Cable
- $500 6-tuner Cable XL6

All before Lifetime.

The current platform officially EOL's and they probably all drop in price to between $100 and $300 to dump supply. Analog support will EOL too, so if you need analog get a discounted Premiere during an inevitable sale over the summer while you still can.
The only thing negative about this is I can't see TiVo wanting its cheapest option to be $300.

This is the only reason I can see them offering a 4 tuner non OTA model for $199.
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Old 06-18-2013, 11:12 AM   #33
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The only thing negative about this is I can't see TiVo wanting its cheapest option to be $300.

This is the only reason I can see them offering a 4 tuner non OTA model for $199.
Understandable. I would have to think in that scenario they would probably just opt to keep selling the existing Premiere 4 for a while longer. The current 4-tuner boxes generally sell at a profit now without a subsidy. It'd be very tempting for them to just keep selling those rather than go to the expense of ramping up a 4th unique manufacturing/assembly tier for a lower-margin product that would have to be subsidized for a time.

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Old 06-18-2013, 11:15 AM   #34
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I also see it as a lower cost offering to MSOs since they don't need OTA. Unless of course they all jump to Pace boxes.
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Old 06-18-2013, 11:29 AM   #35
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I don't think Tivo would bother with an OTA-dedicated box. The market isn't big enough. Plus with analog support removed, that makes it easier to make a combined cable/OTA box.

The Premiere and XL launched at $300 and $500. The Elite/XL4 also launched at $500. I'm using those points as my guide.

- $300 4-tuner Cable/OTA
- $400 6-tuner Cable
- $500 6-tuner Cable XL6

All before Lifetime or theoretical launch upgrade offers.

The current platform officially EOL's and they probably all drop in price to between $100 and $300 to dump supply. Analog support will EOL too, so if anyone needs analog get a discounted Premiere during an inevitable sale over the summer while you still can.
I think that much too high unless they have significant bundle discounts with a mini. I understand that Tivo is a premium product but you just can't expect to sell very many of these things at those prices.

I mean who besides a Tivo enthusiast would buy one at those prices? Think about a potential new customer with Fios (that's what I have so I'll compare to Fios). You can pay $300 plus $15 a month or $499 lifetime plus $4 a month cablecard for the Tivo. Or you can just pay $20 a month to Verizon with no upfront costs.

And I know we all think Tivo is so much better but to a typical customer it's just not. The Fios DVR lets you share shows with other set top boxes in the house, allows you to expand storage easily with any eSata drive, and provides a significant amount of free Fios VOD. The Tivo doesn't have Fios VOD (which is a major lacking point to Joe Customer even if you or I don't care too much about it) and has to deal with cablecard headaches and replacement costs if it breaks outside of Tivo's short 90 day warranty. Fios is coming out with their new media center DVR (I think 4 or 5 tuners) and if Tivo prices this way I think they should just close up their retail business.
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Old 06-18-2013, 11:42 AM   #36
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I think that much too high unless they have significant bundle discounts with a mini. I understand that Tivo is a premium product but you just can't expect to sell very many of these things at those prices.

I mean who besides a Tivo enthusiast would buy one at those prices? Think about a potential new customer with Fios (that's what I have so I'll compare to Fios). You can pay $300 plus $15 a month or $499 lifetime plus $4 a month cablecard for the Tivo. Or you can just pay $20 a month to Verizon with no upfront costs.

And I know we all think Tivo is so much better but to a typical customer it's just not. The Fios DVR lets you share shows with other set top boxes in the house, allows you to expand storage easily with any eSata drive, and provides a significant amount of free Fios VOD. The Tivo doesn't have Fios VOD (which is a major lacking point to Joe Customer even if you or I don't care too much about it) and has to deal with cablecard headaches and replacement costs if it breaks outside of Tivo's short 90 day warranty. Fios is coming out with their new media center DVR (I think 4 or 5 tuners) and if Tivo prices this way I think they should just close up their retail business.
I also think that TiVo will want (needs) an offering that is more competively priced. That is what I based my estimates on - it isn't far off from BJO's estimates, but it keeps an entry level unit and provides a real benefit for each upgrade:

P5 - 4 Tuner Cable only @ $199
P5 - 4 Tuner Cable w/OTA @ $249
P5 - 6 Tuner Cable only @ $349
P5 - 6 Tuner XL Cable only @ $449 (with built in stream)

And with this model, each offering makes you "consider" the next higher.

"The base mode is cheaper - but if I ever want to cut the cable $50 is cheap insurance - Might as well..."

"The XL model is only $100 more and it has a larger hard drive and built in stream - Might as well..."

I do not think that TiVo will continue to offer / develop the legacy Premier line. This would require maintaining multiple development forks and they have never done that in the past.
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Old 06-18-2013, 12:28 PM   #37
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I think that much too high unless they have significant bundle discounts with a mini. I understand that Tivo is a premium product but you just can't expect to sell very many of these things at those prices.

I mean who besides a Tivo enthusiast would buy one at those prices? Think about a potential new customer with Fios (that's what I have so I'll compare to Fios). You can pay $300 plus $15 a month or $499 lifetime plus $4 a month cablecard for the Tivo. Or you can just pay $20 a month to Verizon with no upfront costs.

And I know we all think Tivo is so much better but to a typical customer it's just not. The Fios DVR lets you share shows with other set top boxes in the house, allows you to expand storage easily with any eSata drive, and provides a significant amount of free Fios VOD. The Tivo doesn't have Fios VOD (which is a major lacking point to Joe Customer even if you or I don't care too much about it) and has to deal with cablecard headaches and replacement costs if it breaks outside of Tivo's short 90 day warranty. Fios is coming out with their new media center DVR (I think 4 or 5 tuners) and if Tivo prices this way I think they should just close up their retail business.
This is the timeless Tivo debate. Tivo's prices have pinched people's nerves since the company's inception. All I'm doing is following their pricing history to make an educated guess of what the prices will be, not what we think they should be. It's as practical as any other guess. As a consumer I would LOVE lower prices, but that wasn't the point of my pricing exercise.

What I don't expect is for brand new modern hardware with 3x the performance to somehow match today's discounted prices of 2-4 year old platforms. I don't have any good reason to believe it's going to happen that quickly. Their new hardware is always more expensive to buy parts for and manufacture at first, and their pricing has to reflect it. The boxes are already subsidized by the service fee. An even bigger and immediate discount on the hardware would likely just result in lower profit in the long run and hasten their closing up the retail business.

It's not a new argument. Tivo's done the math a hundred times. They're doing what they believe they need to. I'm just using history as a guidance tool.

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Old 06-18-2013, 12:31 PM   #38
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I think one of things that is interesting this launch is they have gotten boxes down to the $99-$149 pricepoint so it puts them in a position of how do you replicate that.

They could just skip it like console companies do since if you just bought a box you aren't looking to buy. I just think the sub $200 price is too appealing to them and looks good on the shelf. Otherwise oh look the new TiVo and wow they jacked up the price.
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Old 06-18-2013, 12:36 PM   #39
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I'd like to see Tivo offer a basic box that can be upgraded with additional tuner modules and an OS that can handle >2TB drives. I'd be curious to know if they could get a Tivo to work with the SiliconDust HDHR Prime or the latest Ceton InfiniTV6 networked tuners. Since Tivo is already approved for cablecard support I'm assuming they wouldn't need to go through CableLabs certification again, but I don't fully understand the process or the requirements. I'm just speculating here.

I don't know if it's feasible to convert a Tivo to a DLNA capable device, but if they could then they'd likely be able to get live TV feeds via the SD HDHR Prime like you can with a Playstation 3 or WDTV Live media player. Offloading the tuners to third party devices would save hardware costs and allow Tivo to offer the DVR at lower prices while still charging for their service. Tivo already has their own version of a media extender so TV could still be distributed throughout an entire house using existing hardware.
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Old 06-18-2013, 12:37 PM   #40
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Give me a 6 tuner to go with my new 4 tuner and 2 more minis and I can cut down the amount of money I give the cable company each month
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Old 06-18-2013, 01:20 PM   #41
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I want to keep ota as an option even though I don't currently use it. I also might want 6 tuners... why does it seem like nobody thinks they would have a model with both? Esp. with the argument that without having to support analog, adding ota is very cheap, why wouldn't the top of the line box have it? Personally I'll probably skip 6 tuners if it means I have to commit to cable. I just don't like them enough to do that.
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Old 06-18-2013, 01:22 PM   #42
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I want to keep ota as an option even though I don't currently use it. I also might want 6 tuners... why does it seem like nobody thinks they would have a model with both?
Technical limits of the two chip tuner design. I don't have time to dig up the old details, but OTA is far behind tech compared to digital tuners. As a result it takes a lot more to add OTA.

This is why the 4 tuner came out without OTA originally. They may have sourced a company to come up with an efficient way to add 4 OTA tuners.
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Old 06-18-2013, 02:09 PM   #43
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... The vast majority of people don't even need 6 tuners....
I consider myself a heavy user, and I've NEVER had a conflict with four tuners. Since OTA networks are in such disarray with horrible programming, I have no need for more tuners. The cable nets re-broadcast everything...
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Old 06-18-2013, 02:21 PM   #44
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Yeah I get by on 2 tuners right now, so I'm sure 4 will be plenty for me. I have a couple qam backups in my server but never use them. Just don't want to miss out on other features I may want but can't get without dropping ota option. I still have cable but can see a future where I don't. I love my tivo but it would basically be like signing a contract with comcast if I got a tivo without ota. Can't do that.
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Old 06-18-2013, 02:42 PM   #45
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Yeah I get by on 2 tuners right now, so I'm sure 4 will be plenty for me. I have a couple qam backups in my server but never use them. Just don't want to miss out on other features I may want but can't get without dropping ota option. I still have cable but can see a future where I don't. I love my tivo but it would basically be like signing a contract with comcast if I got a tivo without ota. Can't do that.
If you leave Comcast - sell your box. Whats the big deal.
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Old 06-18-2013, 03:06 PM   #46
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Nice to see Tivo is finally coming out with a box that still lags behind my HTPC (currently with 11 cablecard tuners, six ATSC tuners, no 2TB limit and no Tivo fees).
Does your HTPC support a tuning adapter?
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Old 06-18-2013, 03:16 PM   #47
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I consider myself a heavy user, and I've NEVER had a conflict with four tuners. Since OTA networks are in such disarray with horrible programming, I have no need for more tuners. The cable nets re-broadcast everything...
But with 6 tuners you could pad everything and still never have a conflict.

For me the 6 tuner would be useful if they offer user profiles because then me and my wife could share a single TiVo. Other then that I don't really need 6 tuners, but I'll probably still buy one just for the faster hardware.

As for pricing... Since all indications are pointing to there will no longer be a 2 tuner unit I'm betting the prices shift and the 4 tuner unit becomes the new entry level unit at around $150. However it sounds like the 6 tuner unit may be pretty high end, so there could be a bigger gap between it and the 4 tuner unit then there is now between the 2 and 4 tuner units.
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Old 06-18-2013, 03:17 PM   #48
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Does your HTPC support a tuning adapter?
Yes they do
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Old 06-18-2013, 03:34 PM   #49
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Good to hear that waiting until the fall might be a good idea after all.

All of my four HD units have been replaced by PreXLs (3) or a PreXL4 (1), so my lone S3 has been soldiering on since 2007. It's been acting occasionally odd, so this fall seems like a good time to replace it.

If the Pre5 in one of the models to come out supports the Stream functionality built-in, it's an instant sell for me since I know Android compatibility has to be on the way soon. A 6-tuner box would work well for adding two Mini units with an assigned tuner apiece and still being able to record 4 programs at once.

Certainly looking forward to these new units coming out, since the Pre/Pre4 is getting a little long in the tooth.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:05 PM   #50
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Does your HTPC support a tuning adapter?
Yes, I believe the Ceton InfiniTV4's do support tuning adapters. I'm not exactly sure about the SiliconDust HDHR Prime, but chances are it does as well. I'm on FIOS so it's a non-issue for me.

FWIW, just last night I checked my HTPC and it was recording six cable shows simultaneously. It occurred at the top of the hour so it was recording the overlap for six different shows, but it illustrates how six tuners can easily be necessary. The thing is, this is during the Summer season and my recording schedule during the Fall and Winter seasons and much more congested, requiring even more tuners on occasion. However, many of the shows being recorded at that time are network OTA programs so I'm using multiple ATSC tuners in addition to the cablecard tuners.

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I consider myself a heavy user, and I've NEVER had a conflict with four tuners. Since OTA networks are in such disarray with horrible programming, I have no need for more tuners. The cable nets re-broadcast everything...
If you're only using four tuners then you're a lightweight by comparison. I'm talking about some serious spud time in the Lazy Boy, not occasional viewing.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:14 PM   #51
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I can't keep up with what I record on a 4 tuner unit. I don't think I'd ever have time for what you record on a 11 tuner box.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:19 PM   #52
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I'm not getting my hopes up. TiVo's past record suggests the new unit will not be out until April 2014.
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Old 06-18-2013, 07:21 PM   #53
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I can't keep up with what I record on a 4 tuner unit. I don't think I'd ever have time for what you record on a 11 tuner box.
I don't do this, but there are some people who record entire seasons of shows without watching it and then watch the first episode and delete the rest if they don't like it.

Also more tuners equal less spousal arguments.
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:25 PM   #54
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I'm not getting my hopes up. TiVo's past record suggests the new unit will not be out until April 2014.
I think so too. I would say at the earliest for April 2014!
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:27 PM   #55
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I consider myself a heavy user, and I've NEVER had a conflict with four tuners. Since OTA networks are in such disarray with horrible programming, I have no need for more tuners. The cable nets re-broadcast everything...
Do you ever need to add padding? While yes, they COULD do it better (i.e. 'share' the recordings when abutting recordings are on the same channel).. they currently don't (and I have no reason to believe they'll ever implement this)..

But if one needs padding, which I need on a LOT of shows I record, 4 tuners doesn't really mean "4 shows at once".. It can mean "2 shows then 2 shows, each needing padding on end/beginning". Heck, 4 tuners isn't enough for me to get the late night talk shows fully.. it only 'works' because I allow clipping on those -- so that I get full versions of the 11:35 shows. (I micromanage the to do list otherwise to manually reschedule things that otherwise would be clipped)
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:31 PM   #56
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I don't do this, but there are some people who record entire seasons of shows without watching it and then watch the first episode and delete the rest if they don't like it.
I do this. Anything that looks remotely good gets recorded. Occasionally I am wrong lol.
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Old 06-18-2013, 09:44 PM   #57
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I frequently need 5 tuners just for myself during prime time. Now my children are getting older they want more tuners for themselves too. A 6 tuner unit and more importantly anything faster than the current tortoise 4 tuner series 4 will be welcome starting from day 1 it is for sale from TiVo.
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Old 06-18-2013, 10:04 PM   #58
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Yes, I believe the Ceton InfiniTV4's do support tuning adapters. I'm not exactly sure about the SiliconDust HDHR Prime, but chances are it does as well. I'm on FIOS so it's a non-issue for me.
The SD HDHomeRun PRIME works very well with the Cisco TA. The TA is recognized and working in 3 minutes.

The Premiere takes over 15 minutes to recognize my Cisco TA. Hopefully new hardware will be faster at TA connection time.

I think moyekj said his Moto TA was much faster than the Cisco on the Premiere.
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Old 06-19-2013, 06:17 AM   #59
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Do you ever need to add padding? While yes, they COULD do it better (i.e. 'share' the recordings when abutting recordings are on the same channel).. they currently don't (and I have no reason to believe they'll ever implement this)..

But if one needs padding, which I need on a LOT of shows I record, 4 tuners doesn't really mean "4 shows at once".. It can mean "2 shows then 2 shows, each needing padding on end/beginning". Heck, 4 tuners isn't enough for me to get the late night talk shows fully.. it only 'works' because I allow clipping on those -- so that I get full versions of the 11:35 shows. (I micromanage the to do list otherwise to manually reschedule things that otherwise would be clipped)
This is exactly why I have so many tuners. Right now I have three HTPCs, two of which share the tuners from my 3-tuner HDHR Prime (cablecard) and 2-tuner HDHR Dual (OTA). My primary HTPC has two InfiniTV4's and two Hauppauge WinTV-HVR-2250 ATSC tuners. The HDHR tuners get added into the mix automatically when I set up WMC, but they really don't get used by the primary HTPC. I manually configure each channel I record from to set the tuner priorities and the HDHR tuners get dropped to the bottom of the pecking order. They will never be called into service by the primary HTPC as a result. I could have limited myself to six cablecard tuners and four ATSC tuners, but Ceton hadn't come out with their 6-tuner model yet. I really don't need more tuners than that, but they're cheap insurance to avoid any potential conflicts and also allow me to pad recordings as I please.
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Old 06-19-2013, 06:37 AM   #60
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Is this still rumored to be out this fall?



Now accepting wagers for when we actually see the boxes, Fall '14?
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