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Old 03-12-2013, 09:11 AM   #31
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I wish I could add the Mini to my setup, but it requires an XL4. Since I've cut the cable, and use only an antenna for broadcast stations, I don't have that option. I hope at some point Tivo will wise up and add an antenna option to the XL4; then the cable-cutters can use this device.
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:26 AM   #32
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I wish I could add the Mini to my setup, but it requires an XL4. Since I've cut the cable, and use only an antenna for broadcast stations, I don't have that option. I hope at some point Tivo will wise up and add an antenna option to the XL4; then the cable-cutters can use this device.
There's no "antenna option" that could be added to the XL4, it would require a full OTA setup.

I highly doubt that TiVo is going to reverse gears and start retrofitting tuners to the current models. Your best bet would be that a new model offers an OTA option for cord cutters, but I am very skeptical that we will ever again see a new TiVo model with OTA tuners.
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:36 AM   #33
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There's no "antenna option" that could be added to the XL4, it would require a full OTA setup.

I highly doubt that TiVo is going to reverse gears and start retrofitting tuners to the current models. Your best bet would be that a new model offers an OTA option for cord cutters, but I am very skeptical that we will ever again see a new TiVo model with OTA tuners.
Well they have applied to the FCC for a waiver to leave Analog out of an OTA product so that seems to indicate they are looking at a digital only OTA product so I wouldn't write off OTA just yet.
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Old 03-12-2013, 10:27 AM   #34
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Your best bet would be that a new model offers an OTA option for cord cutters, but I am very skeptical that we will ever again see a new TiVo model with OTA tuners.
I have more faith in TiVo's judgment and instinct for self-preservation than you do. They're not stupid enough to write off the growing OTA market and put themselves totally at the mercy of the cable companies.
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Old 03-12-2013, 01:14 PM   #35
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Do you have stats on the growing OTA market? I know more people are cutting the cable but I thought they were replacing it with netflix, hulu, etc.

I found this:

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/O...s-Surge-119987

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The firm also found that 6% of U.S. TV homes, or around 6.9 million homes, have canceled pay-TV service
If 6% have canceled pay-TV, that means 94% still have it. I'd put my development dollars around the 94% bucket first. Especially if the profile of the OTA person is:

Quote:
with 70% of those citing cost-cutting as their motivation for pulling the pay-TV plug
Tivo's model might be one of those things they would be willing to cut. Roku has a better model for the cost cutter who wants to access content at a lower price.
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Old 03-12-2013, 01:36 PM   #36
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Do you have stats on the growing OTA market? ... If 6% have canceled pay-TV, that means 94% still have it. I'd put my development dollars around the 94% bucket first.
That survey does say that 6% cancelled cable service last year, but for your example to work, 100% of the public would had cable previously.

What they're really stating is that 6% of households cancelled cable, and those households join all the households that were OTA in prior years. That combined group of OTA-only households is up to 17.8%.
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Old 03-12-2013, 02:15 PM   #37
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What about households like mine that have OTA and cable?
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Old 03-12-2013, 02:23 PM   #38
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What about households like mine that have OTA and cable?
"17.8% of all U.S. households with TVs use over-the-air signals to watch TV programming; this compares with 15.0% of homes reported as broadcast-only last year."

It sounds like the 17.8% figure is OTA-only households. It's not entirely clear, because the first half of the statement says "use over-the-air" and the second half says "broadcast-only."

Edit: I overlooked the subeading of NAB's press release:

"17.8% of homes exclusively OTA reliant"

https://www.nab.org/documents/newsro...se.asp?id=2761
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Old 03-12-2013, 02:24 PM   #39
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What about households like mine that have OTA and cable?
or OTA and Satellite - heck it hasn't been that many years that you could even get locals on Satellite.

I only have OTA and access to people with Satellite do cable operators rebroadcast all the sub channels (satellite does not)? Seems like someone must believe someone is watching all those sub-channels as they seem to have plenty of advertising.
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Old 03-12-2013, 03:54 PM   #40
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or OTA and Satellite - heck it hasn't been that many years that you could even get locals on Satellite.

I only have OTA and access to people with Satellite do cable operators rebroadcast all the sub channels (satellite does not)? Seems like someone must believe someone is watching all those sub-channels as they seem to have plenty of advertising.
They seem to broadcast them here on Comcast and FiOS. I know several people that watch them. Including me recently. Lately I've been watching CoziTv which is on a local subchannel. They have been running the Six Million Dollar Man and the Bionic Woman several times a week. So I have been watching a few episodes each week. I used to love watching those shows in the 70's. Although it's alot more funny watching them now.
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Old 03-12-2013, 04:18 PM   #41
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"17.8% of all U.S. households with TVs use over-the-air signals to watch TV programming; this compares with 15.0% of homes reported as broadcast-only last year."

It sounds like the 17.8% figure is OTA-only households. It's not entirely clear, because the first half of the statement says "use over-the-air" and the second half says "broadcast-only."

Edit: I overlooked the subeading of NAB's press release:

"17.8% of homes exclusively OTA reliant"

https://www.nab.org/documents/newsro...se.asp?id=2761
Ah, fun with numbers, that's why all of this stuff is so difficult.

But, even so, 17.8% OTA reliant, means that 82.2% is the "pay" market, so it is still worth focusing there first.

The OTA market is *probably* broken into the following sub-segments:

1. My dad ("why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free") - not a Tivo target demographic.
2. The angry people ("I'm mad as hell for having to pay monthly for crap and I'm not gonna take it any more") - Also not a Tivo demographic
3. The apathetic ("yeah, I know there is more out there but all of this stuff is a hassle and I don't understand it") Basically the OTA equivalent of people that have been renting the same cable boxes for their tube TVs for 20 years (i.e. my sister) - Could be a Tivo demographic but they would need to do a hard sell job (i.e. expensive marketing)
4. The people who can't afford anything above OTA (whether they want it or not) - Not a Tivo demographic.
5. The techie crowd who is cutting the cable and finding alternatives - defnitiely a Tivo demographic.

I am in tech marketing (but not the tivo world) so I can't really say out of the 17.8% how much are in #5 vs. the other 4 groups. I would guess (with no facts to back it up) that #3 and #4 are the largest chunk of the OTA market. In 2011 the poverty threshold was ~15% of the population. Based on the fact ~96% of the population has a TV, if you assume the 4% without are below the poverty line, then the other 11% have TVs. That slice of 96% is ~11.5%, meaning that basically all of the other groups have to share ~6%.

While the OTA market may be growing quickly, I think it boils down to how you define it and increases off of small numbers can be big.

But, again, this is not my expertise, I am just fascinated by numbers and statistics. You can always get them to say whatever you want if you torture them enough.
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Old 03-12-2013, 04:57 PM   #42
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or OTA and Satellite - heck it hasn't been that many years that you could even get locals on Satellite.

I only have OTA and access to people with Satellite do cable operators rebroadcast all the sub channels (satellite does not)? Seems like someone must believe someone is watching all those sub-channels as they seem to have plenty of advertising.
Yeah, cable has them all. What a waste of bandwidth those things are, all garbage, and obviously not HD. They should cut those things off nationwide and go to straight up 19mbps HD streams. That would make antennas even more awesome.
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:07 PM   #43
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Most of these "journalists " know little of what they type. That goes for all news sites and especially TV . Trust the word of the stranger on the tivo forum than the "journalist" . At least the stranger on the net doesn't have a history of blatantly lying to you and giving false information.
I just got mine hooked up today and you can't manage SP from it, just like the Engadget article reported.
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Old 03-13-2013, 07:56 AM   #44
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Ah, fun with numbers, that's why all of this stuff is so difficult.

But, even so, 17.8% OTA reliant, means that 82.2% is the "pay" market, so it is still worth focusing there first.

The OTA market is *probably* broken into the following sub-segments:

1. My dad ("why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free") - not a Tivo target demographic.
2. The angry people ("I'm mad as hell for having to pay monthly for crap and I'm not gonna take it any more") - Also not a Tivo demographic
3. The apathetic ("yeah, I know there is more out there but all of this stuff is a hassle and I don't understand it") Basically the OTA equivalent of people that have been renting the same cable boxes for their tube TVs for 20 years (i.e. my sister) - Could be a Tivo demographic but they would need to do a hard sell job (i.e. expensive marketing)
4. The people who can't afford anything above OTA (whether they want it or not) - Not a Tivo demographic.
5. The techie crowd who is cutting the cable and finding alternatives - defnitiely a Tivo demographic.

I am in tech marketing (but not the tivo world) so I can't really say out of the 17.8% how much are in #5 vs. the other 4 groups. I would guess (with no facts to back it up) that #3 and #4 are the largest chunk of the OTA market. In 2011 the poverty threshold was ~15% of the population. Based on the fact ~96% of the population has a TV, if you assume the 4% without are below the poverty line, then the other 11% have TVs. That slice of 96% is ~11.5%, meaning that basically all of the other groups have to share ~6%.

While the OTA market may be growing quickly, I think it boils down to how you define it and increases off of small numbers can be big.

But, again, this is not my expertise, I am just fascinated by numbers and statistics. You can always get them to say whatever you want if you torture them enough.
My GF is a #1 "why would I pay for TV when I can get it for free". But she loves her Series 3 TiVos with OTA channels. She would not want to go back to watching TV without a TiVo.
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Old 03-13-2013, 10:16 AM   #45
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No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.
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Old 03-13-2013, 12:00 PM   #46
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No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.
i have never between all of the cable companies and even sat companies used On Demand. no one in my family has.
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Old 03-13-2013, 07:29 PM   #47
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No evidence, but I suspect cable-cutters are more reliant on Tivo than cable subscribers. Cable customers typically have access to On Demand Services, so a DVR is no longer as necessary. With OTA, I need to time shift pretty much everything I watch, so for that the Tivo (or some equivalent) is essential. Hulu has limited access to broadcast programming, and that is at the whim of the content provider. Content providers rarely provide streamed content of their shows on their own websites, or only provide one episode; some stream just a few shows of a new series to hook the public into going to cable to watch it (like Psych for example).

With OTA, many shows are 'stacked' on the most popular days/slots, so I could do with at least three tuners to cover everything I want to watch. I hope Tivo will not abandon OTA customers completely; if they do, that will leave some room for another company to develop such a DVR, or else users will be forced to build their own.
OnDemand is a supplement to a DVR, not a replacement. Something like 75% of content isn't available, even on XoD, which has the biggest selection. I'm CableCard, so I don't have XoD, and I really don't miss it.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:32 AM   #48
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I have more faith in TiVo's judgment and instinct for self-preservation than you do. They're not stupid enough to write off the growing OTA market and put themselves totally at the mercy of the cable companies.
We'll see what they do. I haven't watched on OTA broadcast in years, so it doesn't matter to me.

One of the main motivators of "cord-cutters" is cutting costs. Hard to see someone thumbing their nose at even "lifeline" cable and then ponying up hundreds of dollars for TiVo hardware and paying monthly fees, but I'm sure those people are out there. Whether or not there are enough of them for TiVo to make a go at it is another question.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:29 PM   #49
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We'll see what they do. I haven't watched on OTA broadcast in years, so it doesn't matter to me.

One of the main motivators of "cord-cutters" is cutting costs. Hard to see someone thumbing their nose at even "lifeline" cable and then ponying up hundreds of dollars for TiVo hardware and paying monthly fees, but I'm sure those people are out there. Whether or not there are enough of them for TiVo to make a go at it is another question.
of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:37 PM   #50
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of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.
Ya there are blenty of us, I dumped Pay TV years ago and have bought 3 HD TiVos, a blu-ray play, HTPC, 50" plasma TV, very good receiver, and upgraded speakers in my 7.1 speaker system since then. Just because someone doesn't think pay tv is worth paying for doesn't mean they are not interested in a good DVR, in fact I would say a good OTA DVR helps make giving up pay tv easier.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:43 PM   #51
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Ya there are blenty of us, I dumped Pay TV years ago and have bought 3 HD TiVos, a blu-ray play, HTPC, 50" plasma TV, very good receiver, and upgraded speakers in my 7.1 speaker system since then. Just because someone doesn't think pay tv is worth paying for doesn't mean they are not interested in a good DVR, in fact I would say a good OTA DVR helps make giving up pay tv easier.
Your idea of "plenty" and TiVos might not be the same. If the cost for TiVo to include OTA is minimal than I'm sure they will continue courting consumers like yourself and add the feature.

On the other hand, if the cost to offer OTA capability is substantial and TiVo is continuing their cozy-up relationship with MSOs then I rather doubt another OTA TiVo is in the pipeline.

Consumers tend to radically under-estimate the cost for businesses to add features to hardware. If it costs TiVo even $5 to put OTA capability in their next hardware box it results in a $20 cost bump to them at retail (or a $20 additional loss if hardware prices stay what they are today).

To put it another way... the 95+ percent of consumers who don't give a rat's ass about OTA are footing the bill for the consumers who do want it.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:56 PM   #52
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of course they're out there - and growing. I figured my capital costs when going OTA were paid back in 4 months of not having to pay my $100+ sat bill. My monthly savings net of my TIVo subs is still enough that I'm happy with my downgrade.
Satellite is outrageously expensive. My bill hit $150 with DirecTV just before I dropped them and that didn't include internet. My current FiOS bill is $120 which includes 75/35 internet and the top TV package. If I dumped TV it would save me maybe $40 a month.

My drop from DirecTV to FiOS covered my cost to purchase TiVos.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:02 PM   #53
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To put it another way... the 95+ percent of consumers who don't give a rat's ass about OTA are footing the bill for the consumers who do want it.
You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours. However I am guessing having supported both cable & OTA is the only reason TiVo could continue on so I am good with it. Now that they have cable partners developing for cable users will be more cost effective and I am good with that, if they do develop another unit with OTA I am sure they will do it because they believe it will be more profitable than not so you should be good with that.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:02 PM   #54
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My Satellite cost were around $115/month after continuing to get them to give me concessions under the threat of leaving.

To duplicate what I had with DTV would have cost even more to get it through cable. A lot more.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:11 PM   #55
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You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours.
I think you have a very skewed view of how many active subscribers are using OTA and more importantly, how many of those are interested in an equipment upgrade.

Only TiVo knows for sure... but I would be willing to bet that OTA is in the minority and even if there's been a small surge of cable cutters, that won't be changing anytime soon.

Stop taking it personally. Fortunately the costs either way are relatively low, but they can swing the decision when the sale of hundreds of thousands of units over several years are at stake. A single large MSO could buy more units in one quarter than TiVo would sell to certain demographics in the product lifetime..... so timing is also a factor (if OTA would delay delivery of a new platform for example).

All we are doing here is tuesday morning quarter-backing their decisions, when we don't have access to the data they have that drives the decision making.

As I said, I don't have a dog in this fight, but if cable card users handily outsell potential OTA users, then adding the OTA feature WILL cost the cable card crowd money, in some fashion.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:24 PM   #56
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You have no idea what percentage of TiVo's customers want OTA tuners in their DVRs and don't worry us OTA only users foot the bill for cable only people also - I have no more need for the cable tuners/cable card support plus the development costs for both in my TiVo DVRs than you do for the OTA tuners and their development costs in yours. However I am guessing having supported both cable & OTA is the only reason TiVo could continue on so I am good with it. Now that they have cable partners developing for cable users will be more cost effective and I am good with that, if they do develop another unit with OTA I am sure they will do it because they believe it will be more profitable than not so you should be good with that.
I have no need for cable tuners or cable cards. I've not used satellite or cable since 2006. I've save lots of money thanks to Tivo but if there were another product that had OTA tuners and had more features that I was looking for then I'd consider moving on to something else.

I'm not interested in paying for something monthly when there is plenty to watch on regular TV. Only channels that I even miss are ESPN and SYFY. And SYFY from what I hear is not so good anymore anyway.
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Old 03-15-2013, 03:38 PM   #57
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The concept that OTA and cable people are at war here is looking at it the wrong way. A unit that can use both is mutually beneficial, in terms of selling more units from the same development costs, flexibility down the road, and resale value.

I'm not giving up cable anytime soon. The only thing I'd like is one that could handle both OTA and cable at the same time. What I'm wondering is why a cable-only premiere couldn't have an add-on 2-tuner USB adapter for the OTA folks, and also allow it to be used with cable at the same time. OTA is a great backup for cable after a storm, or during the storm with a generator if all utilities are down.
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Old 03-15-2013, 03:55 PM   #58
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I'm not saying that those things shouldn't happen, simply that if they aren't happening that a likely reason is that OTA users won't generate enough profit for TiVo to justify the development.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:03 PM   #59
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Only TiVo knows for sure... but I would be willing to bet that OTA is in the minority and even if there's been a small surge of cable cutters, that won't be changing anytime soon.

The cable cutters crowd is growing. In general, it is younger and more technologically savvy crowd that is doing this. Anecdotal evidence: the number of people I know that have cut the cord is increasing each year. All are <40 years old.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:11 PM   #60
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The cable cutters crowd is growing. In general, it is younger and more technologically savvy crowd that is doing this. Anecdotal evidence: the number of people I know that have cut the cord is increasing each year. All are <40 years old.
Yes, and many of those users aren't going to pay for TiVo either. Those "young" "savvy" users get their content by and large from bit torrent.... a.k.a, they pirate it.
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