did apple just bury tivo?

[MickeS]

Originally Posted by dig_duggler

Apple has crushed the competition in digital music sales and players, bar none.

Yes. And barely made a dent in any other market. What's your conclusion?

[ZeoTiVo]

Originally Posted by Stoystown

I do not find the Apple iTV compelling. But I already have Tivo and subscribe to Netflix.

I agree that Apple likely will never put a tuner in its box because its business model is set to make $0.02 off each $2 people spend on watching old episodes of "Lost." .

having Netflix and the ability to rip DVDs might get me interested in an iTV as an extender
but cabe bill of 45$/2$ = 23 shows a month for the whole family? why would I put everyone on a strict budget of wha shows to watch when I can pay 45$ a month much like my Netflix pay monthly for as many as you can watch.

plus the fact that most people do not get a DVR yet, let alone a Mac box doing pay per download stuff.

it is a geat Idea and Apple will make it well, and those that get them will LOVE them but like the S3 it is not for everybody

[JYoung]

Originally Posted by Aflat

Yes it is an Apple Media Center Extender. Do you know what you can do with that though? Its the MythTV concept. Stick a Mac in the basement, hooked to your cable. Then stick a MCE at each TV, and you now have DVR functionality at each TV, plus all your media stored in a central place. You can stick multiple tuners in 1 place, and record as many shows as you have tuners for.

Its a great concept, and if apple does it right, they might pull it off. The idea has been around for a while, a good idea, but there hasn't been a major backer to tie it all together. MS tried it, but people are just getting the idea to use a computer as a DVR. MS started it(well MythTV started it, by Average Joe User hasn't heard of them), Apple polishes it up, who wins?

I agree it's an interesting concept as I currently have an old laptop with S-video out hooked to my tv center and stream that way.
But unless Apple makes it compatible with XP MCE or builds their own tuner with recording functions, this isn't replacing my TiVos right now.

Originally Posted by dig_duggler

Wow, people like the Tivo. I just don't have that much faith in a company that has such little innovation in so many years.

Wasn't that what they were saying about Apple during the John Scully/Gil Amelio years?

[Stoystown]

Jyoung: this isn't replacing my TiVos right now.

That comment hit the nail on the head for this whole discussion. What Apple introduced today is not a DVR. It's not a Tivo. It's different.

I don't find it compelling at all (being able to download Disney films at "almost" DVD standard to watch on my TV, and paying $2 per episode to watch TV shows. But I have Tivo - - I can do a lot more than that now (but I have already paid for my Tivo and lifetime service).

I don't see why anyone with a Tivo would spend $300 more to buy Steve Job's new product.

The question, then, is how many people who might buy a Tivo would buy Apple's $300 hardware, plus per-film expenses instead?

[johndierks]

Originally Posted by MickeS

Yes. And barely made a dent in any other market. What's your conclusion?

Apple is the fifth largest music reseller in the US. Apparently they're growing at a pace to pass the fourth biggest (Amazon) by Q1 2007. Obviously they have the strength to move huge markets. Cable TV is even a bigger market, but I think they could make inroads there.

I have a couple series two tivos, and when I saw the chance to transfer my lifetime subscription I was excited. Jumped over to the Tivo website to see what the S3 is all about. First thing I saw... $799, and I closed the window. There's no way they could justify that kind of coin for S3 to me. $299 is reasonable starting point for me. It won't replace my Tivo right now, but I could see it in the next few years.

I think Apple could be dangerous. They'll develop their platform slowly and in a few years you may have the Apple dual tuner box with 2TB of storage that connects to your computer and spreads your media all over your house.

[DJRobX]

iTV doesn't sound particularly exciting to me. I've got a Mac Mini attached to my TV, why would I want a dumber device? By the same logic I never understood the Windos Media Center Extenders.

Apple's got some nice hardare but they need to get into the DVR game if they want FrontRow to take off for the home theater.

In the meantime, my Mac Mini runs Windows Media Center.

-- Rob

[ZeoTiVo]

Originally Posted by johndierks

in a few years you may have the Apple dual tuner box with 2TB of storage that connects to your computer and spreads your media all over your house.

2TB server and spread media throughout the house is very possible - but Apple will never seriously try and make a DVR. Why go after that hard to get sales in market when they can build out the download side.

cable bill of 45$/100 shows = 45 cents. when each show gets to there I might consider just downloading, but movies are the real download gold as many would buy an iTV for that ability given a full range of new releases. I would gladly pay 1.99 for a movie to watch for 48 hours

[Sevenfeet]

Originally Posted by DJRobX

iTV doesn't sound particularly exciting to me. I've got a Mac Mini attached to my TV, why would I want a dumber device? By the same logic I never understood the Windos Media Center Extenders.

Apple's got some nice hardare but they need to get into the DVR game if they want FrontRow to take off for the home theater.

In the meantime, my Mac Mini runs Windows Media Center.

-- Rob

Because not everyone has their Mac right next to the TV for a variety of good reasons. This allows your Mac to still be the media hub while bringing the TV into play.

Speaking of which, the iTV prototype is interesting, but Apple basically put Tivo, Microsoft and a few others on notice that they can do exactly what they are doing, and probably for less (especially in the case of Tivo). Apple once said that they weren't going to integrate TV with the Mac media centric lifestyle. No longer. How hard do you think it would be for Apple to build a Mac Mini with a cablecard slot abd proper DVR software?

I love Tivo and have been a fervent customer for 7 years now. But Apple is one of the only vendors I'd dump them for. A $800 S3 box that can't integrate with my iPod is a problem.

[Stoystown]

Sevenfeet How hard do you think it would be for Apple to build a Mac Mini with a cablecard slot and proper DVR software?

Not very, but I don't think it's their business model - - so far they are pursuing delivery of shows via the net, not recording them. Maybe this would change, but making a DVR would nuke their $2 fee for current shows.

[hefe]

Originally Posted by Stoystown

Sevenfeet How hard do you think it would be for Apple to build a Mac Mini with a cablecard slot and proper DVR software?

Not very, but I don't think it's their business model - - so far they are pursuing delivery of shows via the net, not recording them. Maybe this would change, but making a DVR would nuke their $2 fee for current shows.

Quick tip: You can just hit the "Quote" button on their post when replying. It's easier, and less confusing for people parsing what you wrote vs. someone else.

[dig_duggler]

Wasn't that what they were saying about Apple during the John Scully/Gil Amelio years?

True enough, but who is Tivo's Jobs that's going to save them?

I suppose I'm just frustrated at Tivo's lack of progress, and I feel let down by the s3. For the first time I can honestly see myself ditching cable tv (and thus tivo) and having a good, acceptable (and cheaper) alternative.

[mattack]

Originally Posted by TheNumberSix

High Def just isn't compelling for me. (For example, I'm West coast and I get both the East Coast and West coast HBO feeds in SD. The HD HBO feed I get is in West Coast time. I'd rather watch my show at 6 in SD than at 9 in HD, since I'm more interested in the story than the pretty.)

Your Tivo is always empty so you would rather watch live than watch the HD one later? Just delay 3 hours and watch something else in the meantime.

I'm not _trying_ to get into the "why does anyone watch live" argument, but esp if you have an HDTV, I would think you would make small accomodations to get the HD version. (I usually only watch something live if there are more things on than I can record, using the TV's tuner.. or more likely just leaving the TV on CNN while I'm going to sleep. Though even then, I often buffer up live TV for a few mins so I can FF through the HEAD ON commercials.)

[MickeS]

Originally Posted by Sevenfeet

How hard do you think it would be for Apple to build a Mac Mini with a cablecard slot abd proper DVR software?

You mean TWO cablecard slots?

And the answer is: it's not that easy. But most of all... Apple is NOT INTERESTED in making it easier for people to record TV. I don't know why year after year now these Apple DVR fantasies keep coming up.

[Lenonn]

Originally Posted by peteypete

iTV is a dumb extender, NO DVR function. LAME.

I've heard rumors that they have people looking into TiVoesque functions, so there is always the possibility...

[ashu]

Originally Posted by AaRdVarK3

Any comments?

Troll!

[DCIFRTHS]

Originally Posted by hefe

No. Not by a long shot.

[DCIFRTHS]

Originally Posted by MickeS

You mean TWO cablecard slots?

And the answer is: it's not that easy. But most of all... Apple is NOT INTERESTED in making it easier for people to record TV. I don't know why year after year now these Apple DVR fantasies keep coming up.

Agreed, but they are not fantasies, or even a small wish, for me

I don't think that Apple could come close to what TiVo offers in the DVR space, and honestly, I hope all these rumors just go away. Apple schmapple.

[DCIFRTHS]

Originally Posted by Lenonn

I've heard rumors that they have people looking into TiVoesque functions, so there is always the possibility...

Apple? Copy or steal someone else's intellectual property? I thought they only had original, amazing, one-of-a-kind Steve The Man type ideas

BTW, I do have an iPod, so I don't really hate Apple... they do have a couple of nice products.

[jcblack]

Once upon a time there were dozens of media extenders available. Now only a few, and most only interface with windows media center (some don't). Poor gateway, they were too early with their destination pc (living room pc). Like usual, Apple pulls all the ideas together and make it look shiny and neat - and they have an insane fan base who will buy everything and everything that's new in Apples lineup. I'm suprised they didn't just put video on the airport express (like they did audio).

[AaRdVarK3]

Originally Posted by ashu

Troll!

I'd say trollesque

But I think there is truth to what I'm saying. I have DirecTV currently solely so I can have TiVo and HD. I was really looking forward to the Series3, as I was expecting feature parity with the Series2 plus all the dual tuner HD loving that I've been enjoying for over a year. The Series3 they brought to market, unfortunately, is not that product.

I went from a Series1 to a Series2 to an HDTiVo over the last five years, and I have no shortage of TiVo love, but Apple really appears to be looking towards the future. With the Series2, TiVo had the infrastructure in place to do online distribution of shows and movies on a controlled platform, but they failed to execute.

Apple's vision really intrigues me. Currently with iTMS, independent music labels get the exact same deal as the big five major labels! This gives them a pretty big chunk of that 99 cents. Now imagine independent TV Shows. How many people paying $1.99/episode would Joss Whedon need to keep Firefly going? Take a show like "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" on FX. The first season could've been produced for nothing, and the second season could've worked even without Danny Devito. Shows like that would be ideal candidates for an "independent" TV show, and with iTMS, they have a delivery mechanism.

So a Mac Mini is $599, iTV is $299, and an EyeTV Hybrid is $130. EyeTV's software already records your shows, dumps them into iTunes and even reencodes and iPod compatible version for you. Currently they support ATSC and NTSC cable. For $1100ish, I can record all the major network HD I want, without having to pay a monthly fee again. Oh, and I'm also getting a home computer as part of the deal. Now for SD shows on the iTunes Music Store at $2/episode and recorded at 640*480, quality is no different than digital cable and probably better than DirecTV. Here are my personal expenses between my wife and I for our non-network television:

Daily Show
Colbert Report
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Project Runway

$10/month for Daily Show and Colbert Report = $240/year
Right now, the other two shows only have a dozen episodes per season, but we'll say 22 anyway = $88/year

So for $328/year, I watch everything that I normally watch now... except...

HBO. HBO throws a big wrench in the works for me. The only decent option I can see now is NetFlix and wait on the HBO shows, but that hurts pretty bad, and tosses another $204/year onto the bill.

Even then, that's way less than the $800ish/year I pay for DirecTV right now. I also get full control of the OTA recordings, and everything else is playable on all my computers and our iPods. The sacrifices are that there's no more channel surfing. I record a good number of movies off of HBO, but NetFlix is a reasonable proxy for that. Live television events (Awards Shows, etc), I'd have to wait to watch or watch live. There wouldn't be any of this "start halfway in" business that I love about my TiVo. If I were into sports, I can see how the lack of ESPN kills everything else, but I'm not.

So I'm very, very intrigued at this point. It's the ultimate ala carte, and that appeals to me. Our household isn't a heavy consumer of television, so my DirecTV bill is just subsidizing the people who are heavy consumers of television. I like the idea of just paying for what I use.

[AaRdVarK3]

Originally Posted by jcblack

Once upon a time there were dozens of media extenders available. Now only a few, and most only interface with windows media center (some don't). Poor gateway, they were too early with their destination pc (living room pc). Like usual, Apple pulls all the ideas together and make it look shiny and neat - and they have an insane fan base who will buy everything and everything that's new in Apples lineup. I'm suprised they didn't just put video on the airport express (like they did audio).

They can call it whatever they want, this device is essentially an airport express video with a remote control.

[gastrof]

Originally Posted by AaRdVarK3

Sorry for the provocative headline, but given TiVo's poor decision to release the Series3 on the same day as an Apple event...

Any comments?

I think it was a poor decision for Apple to have an "event" on the same day TiVo was releasing the Series 3.

WHAT was Apple thinking?!?!?

[cwerdna]

Originally Posted by dig_duggler

Wow, people like the Tivo. I just don't have that much faith in a company that has such little innovation in so many years.

Apple has crushed the competition in digital music sales and players, bar none. It is true there is no tuner and it's not live tv, but if there sure seems to be the groundwork for getting rid of the middle man. There won't be channel surfing with the iTV, and if you watch a extreme amount of tv then it won't make sense. But if you watch on average 4 or 5 shows a week it makes financial sense (5 (shows)* 2 (bucks) * 22 (episodes in a normal season) = 220. That's a years worth of shows for 220. That pays for itself in 4 months of cable bills for me. And you can watch live tv for sports, as I (and everyone I know with a few exceptions) do anyway. The only real downside I see is no ESPN.

Although I'm an iPod, iTMS (err... iTS) and TiVo fan, the iTV isn't that compelling to me.

Very little of what I watch is available on iTMS nor would I wanna screw around with paying $1.99/ep and possibly waiting until the day after it's aired in order to buy it.

Try this experiment: ditch your cable NOW. Buy EVERY show you were watching for $1.99 through iTMS and tell me if you actually like doing this. You don't need the not yet available $300 iTV box to do this.

[mbernste]

Originally Posted by Stoystown

Unless my internet provider starts streaming 110 channels of video to my house, I'm not getting rid of cable.

Welcome to Verizon FiOS.

[ZeoTiVo]

Originally Posted by AaRdVarK3

With the Series2, TiVo had the infrastructure in place to do online distribution of shows and movies on a controlled platform, but they failed to execute.

Ummm, so did Apple. How many of the new Fall shows can I get from iTS? how many of the new Movie Releases? I could not imagine using Netflix even if they sent me an already burned onto a blank DVD for 12.99

the only thing TiVo or Apple has failed on is getting rights to the content. This seems to be an industry wide problem and my Netflix postal mail rental subscription seems to be firmly in place for yet another year.

[dig_duggler]

Ummm, so did Apple. How many of the new Fall shows can I get from iTS?

All of them. There is actually very little (except HBO) that you can't get off iTMS

[JasonD]

When I read what Apple was coming out with I thought kind of cool technology but who wants to just pay for specific shows? Also how are you going to store it? People are saying they would just buy specific shows an cancel cable.

Part of the reason I have cable is so I can browse around and and try new shows on the different stations. Example I would never have found "Hunter and hunted" on National Geographic station if I didn't have cable to look around on.. Its now one of my favorite shows. Or how about "30 days"?

Also you have to rely on the internet to beam these shows to you. Ok if you know your just going to for sure watch certain shows then you could possibly save money. But have the joy of cable is exploring new possible shows.

So far I'm just not impressed with Apple's latest offering, oh yes and they want me to pay three hundred dollars for it. Come on they should practically give it away since most of the money they are going to be making is from selling content.


Jason

[jcblack]

Originally Posted by JasonD

Part of the reason I have cable is so I can browse around and and try new shows on the different stations.

Surfing is part of it. I wouldn't buy mythbusters, cspan, vh1s top 100 celebrity goof-ups, cops, or USA network movies, but if I flip past them I might watch them for a few minutes.

[AaRdVarK3]

Originally Posted by jcblack

Surfing is part of it. I wouldn't buy mythbusters, cspan, vh1s top 100 celebrity goof-ups, cops, or USA network movies, but if I flip past them I might watch them for a few minutes.

We bought my in-laws a TiVo last Christmas, and there's no way that I could ever even begin to try to explain to them how they would use iTV + a Mac + iTMS to replace their cable. They channel surf, and as I said in my earlier post, they are what I would categorize as heavy television consumers. Cable works for them.

For me, and a pretty large portion of my friends, that is not how we watch TV at all. If we want to burn time, we burn it on the internet. We hear about new shows from other people, the websites we read, clips we see on youtube, etc. I'm actually surprised to hear about people "surfing" here at TCF, considering the painful experience most of us have watching live television these days.

TiVo's only advantage is their highly superior software. It's light years ahead of anything on the market, and it's really amazing to me that after all these years, nobody has come close. For me, Apple's uncharacteristic preannouncement of iTV was a shot across the bow saying, "we're coming to the living room."

iTV won't do everything that a Series3 can do, but it's a start. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Series3 long term prospects with CableCard 1.0, MultiStream, 2.0, SDV, blah blah blah, and the fact that once Comcast and Cox go live with TiVo units, the standalone users become a drop in the bucket, it's hard for me to go out and spend $800 on a Series3 (and I drove 200 miles to DC to pick up a HDTiVo for $1000 at Best Buy the day they got it in stock).

If Apple lets me bypass all these hassles, but still preserves the high points of the user experience, I'm all for it. The question is what hassles will it introduce.

[Jonathan_S]

Originally Posted by AaRdVarK3

Now imagine independent TV Shows. How many people paying $1.99/episode would Joss Whedon need to keep Firefly going?

I don't actually know how much of that $1.99 goes to the show producer, but I'm going to use 70% (which is probably high).

70% of $1.99 is ~ $1.39.
Firefly episodes are reported to cost $2 million each.
So 1,438,849 people would need to buy an episode for it to break even.

At its best Firefly got ratings in the 4 million viewers range. I know there are a lot devoted browncoats, but expecting at leat 38% of all the original views to buy each episode might be a bit optimistic.

(Also, this doesn't address the problem that the show needs the money upfront to pay to shoot the episode, or that it is more cost effective to shoot a season at once, but that just requires even more money upfront).

I think for the short term at least, this idea of independent TV will work better for cheaper shows that don't require the special effects, music, and specialized sets that are used in firefly.